Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant capacity expansion pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected standard - grade PE production in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as there was high - level maintenance in the first half, and there is an expectation of increased production from existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse this trend, so there is a lack of upward momentum. The strategy is mainly to sell short on rallies [3]. - In the short and medium term, a bearish view is taken on the single - side trading. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Third - quarter PP and PE capacity expansion pressure is large, easing in the fourth quarter. PE standard - grade production pressure in the second half is reduced, but supply may increase due to expected higher operation rates of existing facilities. Terminal demand is weak, lacking upward drivers [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish stance on single - side trading in the short and medium term; temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Capacity Expansion**: For PE, the expected new capacity for the 2509 contract is 2.05 million tons, and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. For PP, the 2505 contract has an expected new capacity of 2.11 million tons, 2.2 million tons for the 2509 contract, and 950,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The total new PE capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.43 million tons, and 5.26 million tons for PP [12][13][14]. - **Demand**: PE and PP demand is weak year - on - year. For PE, the current mainstream downstream industry operating rates range from 20% - 51%. For PP, the plastic - weaving industry is in the off - season with reduced new orders, and the BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle [22]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 1.02 million tons. Two - oil inventory remained unchanged, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories increased by 2,000 tons, 5,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating rate is 76.88%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous period. The annual production capacity affected by maintenance is 6.97 million tons, and the maintenance loss this week is 108,500 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the previous period [65]. - **Price and Spread**: The report provides detailed price data for PE raw materials, products, and various spreads, including changes in oil - based PE profit, CTO profit, and import profit [24]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market showed "reduced volume and stable prices." Supply was tightened due to some Middle - East plant failures, and the Chinese market price being low globally reduced foreign suppliers' willingness to quote. Import arrivals may continue to decline from July to August [81]. - **Demand**: PE downstream industry operating rates vary. Agricultural film operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, while pipe operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 32% [22]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PP inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 514,000 tons. Two - oil inventory increased by 5,000 tons, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories decreased by 3,000 tons, 2,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PP operating rate is 77.41%, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week but up 3.51 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP are 73.26%, 92.36%, and 76.18% respectively [133]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents comprehensive PP price data, including raw material prices, product prices, and various spreads such as non - standard spreads and basis spreads [100]. - **Import and Export**: PP import offers are scarce, with few transactions due to the large gap between offers and buyers' expectations. PP export arbitrage opportunities are limited, mainly due to weak overseas markets and new domestic capacity leading to a supply - abundant situation [145][147]. - **Demand**: PP downstream industries, such as plastic - weaving, are in the off - season with reduced new orders. The BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle, and some small and medium - sized injection - molding enterprises are operating at low rates [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is currently "No Rating" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the price of pulp and paper has stabilized at a low level, with expectations of fluctuations in June and July. The actual supply prices for overseas needle and broadleaf pulp are approximately $715/ton and $500-510/ton respectively. Pulp manufacturers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices, and some sellers are raising prices by $20/ton [1][2] - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in operations from April to May, with a slight decline in profitability in June. The second quarter profit is expected to remain stable compared to the first quarter, while the third quarter is anticipated to stabilize as well. The fourth quarter will enter a new capacity release cycle, with expected profitability improvements [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper Market - The pulp prices are expected to fluctuate around the bottom, with a forecast of low-level oscillation during the off-season from June to August. The prices for pulp and paper have shown signs of bottoming out, with current prices at 4140 CNY/ton for pulp and 5163 CNY/ton for paper [2][3] - Historical analysis shows that in 2022, pulp prices reached a historical high due to supply-side factors, while in 2023, both pulp and paper prices experienced a rapid decline, with pulp bottoming out at 3850 CNY/ton and paper at 5375 CNY/ton [2] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 39,544 million CNY, with a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,086 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [4][7] - For the years 2025 to 2027, the net profit is projected to be 35.8 billion CNY, 43.0 billion CNY, and 48.1 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5X, 8.8X, and 7.9X [3][4] Production Capacity - The company plans to gradually launch its Nanning base project in Q3 to Q4, which includes the production of 150,000 tons of household paper, 400,000 tons of specialty paper, 1,000,000 tons of corrugated paper, and 500,000 tons of pulp, which is expected to increase the underlying profit by approximately 500 million CNY annually [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力回升 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.76%（+2.19%），氨碱法75.65%（环比+4.24%），联碱法80.41%（+3.87%)；周 产量70.41万吨（+1.91万吨），轻碱产量32.18万吨（+0.66万吨），重碱产量38.22万吨（+1.25 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需70.14万吨（-3.61万吨），轻碱表需35.01万吨（+2.30万吨），重碱表需35.12万吨 （-5.65万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存162.70万吨（+0.27万吨），轻碱库存79万吨（-2.83万吨），重碱库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, even if the negotiations are successful, it's not suitable to chase short positions due to the current risk - return ratio. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - For methanol, with the weakening of inland prices, the stabilization of coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, the domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to consider short positions on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, the domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high in the short term. Demand is lukewarm. It's recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there's no obvious price trend and the basis is at a low level [6]. - For rubber, the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU. It's recommended to adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be supply - strong and demand - weak. The mid - term fundamentals are weak [13]. - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate in June as the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to supply - driven decline, and there are no new capacity - production plans in June [15]. - For polypropylene, with the concentrated capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude - oil futures closed down $0.60, a 0.95% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude - oil futures closed down $0.70, a 1.07% decline, at $64.91; INE main crude - oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, a 1.23% increase, at 468.2 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude - oil inventory decreased by 4.30 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 401.82 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 5.22 million barrels to 228.30 million barrels, a 2.34% increase; diesel inventory increased by 4.23 million barrels to 107.64 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; fuel - oil inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 23.27 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; aviation - kerosene inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 43.65 million barrels, a 2.20% increase [1]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Inland prices are weakening, coal is stabilizing, and enterprise profits have declined significantly. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Consider short positions on rallies for single - side trading. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. Urea - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high. The compound - fertilizer summer - fertilizer season is ending, and the agricultural demand will increase gradually. Exports are expected to improve slightly after the policy implementation [6]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Wait and see for single - side trading [6]. Rubber - **Market Sentiment**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU [10]. - **Supply - Demand Views**: Bulls think that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is deteriorating, demand is flat, it's the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices may stimulate new supply [11]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week and up 3.91 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.88%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week and down 2.40 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a 0.96% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a 1.5% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a 0.1% decline [12]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 89 yuan to 4,834 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,680 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 154 (- 79) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 37 (- 13) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost is stable, the overall operating rate is 78.2%, up 2% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate is 46.2%, down 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory is 385,000 tons (- 2,000), and social inventory is 598,000 tons (- 26,000). The enterprise profit is under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase as the maintenance season ends [13]. Polyethylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation's upward space is limited. The supply in the second quarter is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [15]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 7,049 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,125 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 79.33%, up 1.92% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 482,000 tons, down 16,400 tons week - on - week, and the trader inventory was 58,200 tons, up 1,100 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 39.3%, down 0.09% week - on - week [15]. Polypropylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the decline was smaller than that of PE. There are 2.2 million tons of planned capacity to be put into production in June, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 6,948 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,115 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 167 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 75.74%, down 0.01% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 553,300 tons, down 39,900 tons week - on - week, the trader inventory was 136,100 tons, down 16,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory was 64,900 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 50.29%, down 0.43% week - on - week [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6,578 yuan, and PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 825 dollars. The basis was 258 yuan (- 44), and the 9 - 1 spread was 180 yuan (- 4) [18]. - **Operating Rate**: China's PX operating rate was 82.1%, up 4.1% week - on - week; Asia's was 72%, up 2.6% week - on - week [18]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: The de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter due to the new PTA plant commissioning. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4,670 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 4,865 yuan. The basis was 197 yuan (- 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (+2) [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The PTA operating rate was 76.4%, down 0.7% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: It will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4,292 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 62 yuan to 4,417 yuan. The basis was 128 (- 19), and the 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan (- 23) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 59.8%, up 0.1% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week. The port inventory was 621,000 tons, down 66,000 tons [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21].

Supply Side - PX inventory is experiencing a destocking trend entering 2025, particularly after May, driven by limited supply increments and unexpected demand performance, leading to a significant recovery in PX valuation [1] - This year is not a major maintenance year for PX, with high operating rates in Q1 and limited maintenance plans in Q2, resulting in unexpected supply losses in May due to unplanned reductions at certain facilities [1] - Domestic PX production remains stable, with over half of the capacity being integrated refining and chemical facilities launched after 2019, while imports are still 20% reliant on regions like South Korea and Japan, which lack new capacity and have lower operational stability [1] Demand Side - Demand for PX has fluctuated between reality and expectations, with PTA processing fees compressed to low levels after the Spring Festival, leading to a delay in PX destocking [2] - The escalation of US-China trade tensions initially weakened demand expectations, causing PX prices to drop to yearly lows, but a subsequent easing of tensions and strong export orders improved demand and operational rates in the downstream [2] - As of May, the recovery in PTA operating rates has continued the PX destocking trend, with improved buying intentions from PTA factories leading to a rapid recovery in PX prices [2] Future Outlook - In the short term, the recovery in PTA operating rates is expected to continue the PX destocking trend, with improved PX production profits and delayed maintenance in domestic and overseas facilities indicating that PX valuations are entering a reasonable range [3] - Long-term projections suggest that with only 3 million tons of new PX capacity expected from Yulong Petrochemical, while PTA has significant upcoming capacity additions, the domestic PX supply gap is likely to widen [3] - Although tariffs may limit terminal demand growth compared to PTA capacity growth, restricted operating levels in other Asian regions are expected to constrain import increases, indicating further improvement potential in the long-term supply-demand landscape for PX [3]