Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, at the end of the month, the central bank conducted continuous large - scale net injections, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose capital market. The bond market continued its upward trend, while the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - On July 28, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions [3]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national cumulative new tax and fee cuts are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, and export tax rebates are expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development of key industrial chains [4]. - The national childcare subsidy program was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with children under 3 years old can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [4]. - **International News**: The US Treasury Department expects net borrowing of 1.007 trillion US dollars from July to September this year, an increase of more than 450 billion US dollars from the previous forecast, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It also expects net borrowing of 590 billion US dollars from October to December [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 28, WTI September crude oil futures rose 2.38% to 66.71 US dollars per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.34% to 70.04 US dollars per barrel, COMEX August gold futures fell 0.77% to 3,310 US dollars per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.04% to 3.032 US dollars per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On July 28, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, with a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 28, due to the central bank's continuous large - scale net injections, major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 5.53bp to 1.462%, and DR007 dropped 7.17bp to 1.581% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 28, the bond market continued its upward trend. By 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.75bp to 1.7150%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 fell 2.75bp to 1.8000% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Nongfa Discount 06 (Add 3) and 25Guokai 06 (Add 25) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 28, the transaction prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "24Yuanhang Holdings PPN001 (Restructuring)" fell more than 13%, and "H1Bidi 01" rose more than 350% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced various events, such as Jingfeng Pharmaceutical failing to repay a 117 - million - yuan loan, Zhengbang Technology's subsidiary entering pre - reorganization, etc. [15]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.12%, 0.44%, and 0.96% respectively. The major convertible bond indexes fell, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.70%, 0.62%, and 0.81% respectively [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taifu Convertible Bond announced not to redeem early and will not choose early redemption if the early - redemption clause is triggered again within the next three months [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.91%, while yields on other maturities generally increased. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 4.42% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond rose 3bp, while yields on 10 - year government bonds of other major European economies generally decreased. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 3bp to 2.69% [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 28, price changes of various Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, etc. [26].

Group 1: Domestic News - The China-US economic talks commenced in Stockholm on July 28, aiming to translate important consensus into specific policies and actions to advance bilateral economic relations [2] - The National Taxation Administration announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative new tax cuts and fee reductions are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, significantly promoting economic and social development [2] Group 2: Industrial and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and enhancing technological innovation [3] - A new childcare subsidy plan was announced, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [3] Group 3: International News - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a net borrowing of 1.007 trillion dollars for the third quarter, significantly higher than previous estimates due to the increase in the debt ceiling [4] - The U.S. government is accelerating bond issuance to replenish cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised by 5 trillion dollars [4] Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - On July 28, the central bank conducted a 4.958 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net cash injection of 3.251 billion yuan for the day [6][7] - The bond market showed a warming trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.75 basis points to 1.7150% [8] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 2.38% to 66.71 dollars per barrel [5] - Natural gas prices fell by 2.04% to 3.032 dollars per million British thermal units [5] Group 6: Credit Market - Several corporate bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "24远洋控股PPN001" dropping over 13% and "H1碧地04" declining over 10% [10] - Companies such as 景峰医药 and 正邦科技 faced financial difficulties, with the former unable to repay a loan and the latter entering pre-restructuring [11] Group 7: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices dropping by 0.70% to 0.81% on July 28 [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased by 9.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is significantly increasing its borrowing forecast for the third quarter of 2023, expecting net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion, a substantial increase of over 82% from the previous estimate of $554 billion due to the lifting of the debt ceiling [1][3]. Group 1: Borrowing Forecast and Debt Ceiling Impact - The Treasury's borrowing forecast for July to September has been raised by more than $450 billion, reflecting the acceleration of debt issuance following the increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1][3]. - The actual borrowing in the second quarter was only $65 billion, far below the anticipated $514 billion, primarily due to a lower-than-expected cash balance at the end of June [3][4]. - The cash balance at the end of June was reported at $457 billion, significantly lower than the previously assumed $850 billion, leading to a $393 billion shortfall that contributed to the increased borrowing needs [2][3]. Group 2: Cash Management and Future Projections - The Treasury aims to restore its cash balance to $850 billion by the end of September, primarily through the issuance of short-term debt [4][6]. - For the fourth quarter (October to December), the Treasury projects net borrowing of $590 billion, assuming the cash balance will recover to $850 billion [2][4]. - The Treasury's cash management strategy remains stable, with expectations that the debt issuance plan will align with previous quarterly refinancing levels [6]. Group 3: Revenue Changes and Economic Implications - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with customs duties expected to rise further, although corporate tax revenues are projected to decline, partially offsetting tariff gains [5]. - In June, the U.S. recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion, attributed mainly to customs tariff revenues, marking the first surplus for June since 2017 [5]. - The total tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase year-over-year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has significantly raised its quarterly borrowing estimate to $1 trillion due to the impact of the debt ceiling [1] Group 1: Borrowing Estimates - The net borrowing estimate for July to September is now projected at $1.01 trillion, up from the previous estimate of $554 billion made in April [1] - The increase in borrowing is attributed to the need to rebuild cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion earlier this month [1] Group 2: Cash Balance and Debt Issuance - The Treasury had to reduce bond issuance in the first half of the year to avoid hitting the debt ceiling, resulting in a lower-than-expected cash balance of $457 billion at the end of June, compared to an assumed balance of $850 billion [1] - The current borrowing estimate is $60 billion higher than the April forecast when not considering the lower-than-expected cash balance at the beginning of the quarter [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the U.S. and China, including aspects of debt, currency, and market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. government is facing a $4 trillion debt ceiling, which may lead to increased public spending and dissatisfaction among stakeholders regarding tax cuts for businesses and individuals [1] 2. The U.S. dollar index is currently at 90.2, with predictions of further decline due to ongoing supply chain issues and potential adjustments to the debt ceiling [2] 3. China has strategically reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from a peak of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2018 to around $700 billion, indicating a shift in its financial strategy post-trade war [3] 4. China's economic policies have shifted since September 2022, focusing on fiscal expansion and stabilizing the economy, contrasting with previous periods of policy uncertainty [4] 5. The stability of the Chinese stock market is noted, with government bonds trading around 1.7% and stock indices fluctuating around 3.3%, reflecting a cautious but stable economic outlook [5] 6. The current low price levels in China may facilitate monetary easing, which could help stimulate economic recovery, while the U.S. faces challenges in this regard [6] 7. China's stock market is characterized by a relatively high debt-to-GDP ratio compared to other major economies, indicating a unique financial position [7] 8. The potential for a technological revolution is highlighted, with both the U.S. and China expected to leverage their respective strengths in R&D and market application over the next decade [8] 9. The outlook for the next 6 to 12 months suggests a continuation of the current bull market, with limited upward movement in indices due to strategic market stabilization efforts [9] 10. Companies are increasingly focused on cash management and financial stability, with a notable emphasis on sectors such as transportation and infrastructure [10] 11. The report concludes with a focus on the advantages of Chinese companies in terms of market timing and strategic positioning amid global risks [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay between U.S. and Chinese economic policies and their implications for global markets, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [2][3][4][5][6][8]

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the US dollar index fell by 10.7%, marking its worst performance since 1973[5] - In Q1, the "US vs Non-US" interest rate differential explained 91% of dollar fluctuations, but this dropped to 33% in Q2, with "de-dollarization" becoming the dominant market narrative[2] - A Bank of America survey in June indicated that market consensus on a weak dollar reached a 20-year high[5] Group 2: Hedging and Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are increasingly using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks rather than divesting from dollar-denominated assets[6] - From April onwards, there was a significant increase in short positions in dollar futures, with net positions shifting from long to short[6] - The demand for hedging has surged, as evidenced by the spike in EUR/USD risk reversal option prices, indicating heightened hedging needs[11] Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - Four potential reversal opportunities for the weak dollar include: 1. Diminished market response to equivalent tariffs, potentially reducing dollar hedging demand[3] 2. The dollar index nearing long-term support levels reflecting US productivity advantages[3] 3. Changes in Trump's policies may reduce the motivation for new tariffs, potentially supporting the dollar[3] 4. Market interpretations of interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and support the dollar[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include limited indicators for observing hedging demand in the dollar forex market and potential non-linear declines in US fundamentals[4] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's continued tariff pressures and interference with Federal Reserve independence poses additional risks[4]

Group 1: Economic Overview - Investment remains a drag on the US economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2, entirely driven by a reduction in imports [2] - Employment market shows resilience, with weekly initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 227,000, remaining at seasonal lows [2] - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal deficit of $131.1 billion, higher than seasonal levels and stronger than historical averages [2] Group 2: US Market Performance - US stock market experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, driven by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate outlook and differing expectations on tariffs' impact on inflation [3] - The outlook for US stocks suggests a potential return to a bullish trend, supported by corporate earnings resilience, although high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Short-term focus on liquidity tightening pressure following the increase of the debt ceiling, with a maintained view of high volatility in US bond yields [3] - Strategy suggests maintaining a high allocation to short- to medium-term US bonds, with attention to potential opportunities if yields rise [3] Group 4: Currency Analysis - The US dollar is experiencing short-term support due to delayed tariffs and economic resilience, but medium-term trends remain weak due to uncertainties in tariff policies and fiscal pressures [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by mixed factors including tariff impacts and ongoing interest rate differentials with the US [3] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term gold prices may remain volatile due to geopolitical issues and cooling interest rate expectations, but medium-term support is expected from central bank gold purchases [4] Group 6: Chinese Economic Trends - Anticipated Q2 economic growth of approximately 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth around 4% and a GDP deflator potentially declining to -1.2% [6] - Retail price competition continues, with significant growth in instant retail orders and a notable increase in passenger vehicle sales, despite challenges in the automotive sector [6] Group 7: External Demand and Pricing Pressure - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in global manufacturing and demand [7] - Chinese exports to the US are cooling, while exports to non-US regions remain strong, although pricing pressures are evident across various sectors [7] Group 8: Policy Developments - Recent government policies aim to stabilize employment and support businesses, including increased unemployment insurance and social security subsidies [7] Group 9: Domestic Market Strategy - Domestic market sentiment is improving, with a focus on "anti-involution" policies and urban renewal expectations, leading to a stronger stock market performance [9] - Bond market shows weakness, with a rise in 10-year government bond yields to 1.66%, influenced by risk appetite and tightening liquidity [9] Group 10: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are experiencing upward movement driven by various factors, including easing US-China trade tensions and urban renewal policies, although the market remains vulnerable to corrections [10] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of volatility, with current valuations at high levels and requiring further catalysts for upward movement [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been implemented rapidly, but its impact on U.S. growth is limited due to significant distribution effects and a tightening fiscal effect from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts. The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][6][29] - The legislative process was expedited due to Trump's strong influence within the Republican Party and effective utilization of legislative rules, allowing the act to be signed into law just 45 days after its introduction [7][10] - The act primarily extends existing tax cuts, leading to an estimated additional $3.85 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, while incremental policies result in a marginal tightening effect, with a projected surplus of $0.49 trillion [12][18][23] Group 2 - The budget and economic effects of the act raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, with the potential for a "fiscal cliff" risk emerging around 2028 due to the act's structure of increasing deficits initially [29][32] - The economic impact of the act is assessed as limited, with various institutions estimating its cumulative effect on U.S. GDP over ten years to be around 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating a long-term neutral effect with significant distributional impacts [37][41][43] - Tariff revenues are expected to partially offset the act's budgetary and economic effects, with projections suggesting that tariff income could reduce the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, potentially covering 68% of the act's total cost [45][50][53] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. Treasury supply shocks post-implementation of the act are analyzed across three time dimensions, indicating that the immediate impact on market liquidity and long-term yield premiums is manageable [54][56] - The act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue additional bonds, which may lead to short-term liquidity tightening but is expected to be controlled in the third quarter of the year [56][58] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. debt sustainability remains a challenge, with the act's passage indicating a strong path dependency on debt expansion, suggesting that long-term Treasury yields may face upward pressure [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The delay in the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the easing of geopolitical risks, the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero, but the expected timing of interest rate cuts remains in September/October/December. [3] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the end of 2025. [4] 3.2 US Debt and Financial Market Conditions - The US unpaid public debt totaled $36.58 trillion and increased compared to last week. The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion in the next decade, and the fiscal deficit may increase by $3.4 trillion. [7] - As of July 2, the Fed's bank reserve balance was $3.26 trillion, a decrease from last week; the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale was $631.1 billion, an increase from last week; and the US Treasury cash account was $372.2 billion, an increase from last week. [10] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased compared to last week. [11] - The New York Fed's survey showed that consumers' one - year inflation expectation in June decreased to 3%. However, the expected expansion of tax cuts and fiscal deficits by the Trump administration, combined with the Fed's future interest rate cut expectations, have raised the medium - and long - term inflation expectations in the US. [16] - The US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased. The difference between the yields of long - term and medium - and short - term Treasuries also increased. [18][24] - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week. [27] - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased. [31] - The annual rate of the US Redbook commercial retail sales index was 5.90%, indicating that the US consumer industry remained prosperous. [36] - The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms in the US decreased compared to last week, causing the US MBA mortgage application activity index to increase. The number of new and existing home sales in the US in May decreased compared to the previous month. [39] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 233,000, lower than expected and the previous value, but still within a reasonable range. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.964 million, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, indicating a weakening demand for labor in the US job market. [43] 3.3 International Exchange Rates and Bond Yield Spreads - The difference in yields between US and German 10 - year Treasuries increased. [47] - The exchange rates of the euro and the pound against the US dollar began to decline. [49] 3.4 Precious Metal Market Conditions - The volatility index of US gold ETFs decreased. [53] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX gold futures increased. The holdings of SPDR gold ETF decreased compared to last week. [56][58] - The total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased compared to last week. [60] - The domestic gold futures (spot) price premium was higher than the 75th percentile of the past five years (higher than the 50th percentile of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range). It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign gold. [67] - The basis between London and COMEX gold was positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis between the gold exchange and SHFE was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE gold basis at low prices in the short term. [70] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and SHFE gold were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spreads of SHFE gold. [74] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX silver futures increased. The holdings of iShare silver ETF increased compared to last week. [76][78] - The total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver decreased compared to last week. [80] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price was between the 50th - 75th percentiles of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign silver. [86] - The basis of COMEX silver was negative and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis of Shanghai silver was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE silver basis at low prices in the short term. [90] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the near - and far - month spreads of SHFE silver. [94] - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) was slightly lower than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - silver ratio" at high prices in the short term. [97] - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) were far higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" at high prices in the short term. [101]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department indicates that with the increase in the debt ceiling, cash balances will rise, reaching $500 billion by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The increase in the debt ceiling is expected to lead to a significant rise in cash reserves [1] - By the end of the year, the cash balance is projected to reach $500 billion [1]