Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the US dollar index fell by 10.7%, marking its worst performance since 1973[5] - In Q1, the "US vs Non-US" interest rate differential explained 91% of dollar fluctuations, but this dropped to 33% in Q2, with "de-dollarization" becoming the dominant market narrative[2] - A Bank of America survey in June indicated that market consensus on a weak dollar reached a 20-year high[5] Group 2: Hedging and Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are increasingly using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks rather than divesting from dollar-denominated assets[6] - From April onwards, there was a significant increase in short positions in dollar futures, with net positions shifting from long to short[6] - The demand for hedging has surged, as evidenced by the spike in EUR/USD risk reversal option prices, indicating heightened hedging needs[11] Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - Four potential reversal opportunities for the weak dollar include: 1. Diminished market response to equivalent tariffs, potentially reducing dollar hedging demand[3] 2. The dollar index nearing long-term support levels reflecting US productivity advantages[3] 3. Changes in Trump's policies may reduce the motivation for new tariffs, potentially supporting the dollar[3] 4. Market interpretations of interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and support the dollar[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include limited indicators for observing hedging demand in the dollar forex market and potential non-linear declines in US fundamentals[4] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's continued tariff pressures and interference with Federal Reserve independence poses additional risks[4]

Group 1: Economic Overview - Investment remains a drag on the US economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2, entirely driven by a reduction in imports [2] - Employment market shows resilience, with weekly initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 227,000, remaining at seasonal lows [2] - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal deficit of $131.1 billion, higher than seasonal levels and stronger than historical averages [2] Group 2: US Market Performance - US stock market experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, driven by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate outlook and differing expectations on tariffs' impact on inflation [3] - The outlook for US stocks suggests a potential return to a bullish trend, supported by corporate earnings resilience, although high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Short-term focus on liquidity tightening pressure following the increase of the debt ceiling, with a maintained view of high volatility in US bond yields [3] - Strategy suggests maintaining a high allocation to short- to medium-term US bonds, with attention to potential opportunities if yields rise [3] Group 4: Currency Analysis - The US dollar is experiencing short-term support due to delayed tariffs and economic resilience, but medium-term trends remain weak due to uncertainties in tariff policies and fiscal pressures [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by mixed factors including tariff impacts and ongoing interest rate differentials with the US [3] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term gold prices may remain volatile due to geopolitical issues and cooling interest rate expectations, but medium-term support is expected from central bank gold purchases [4] Group 6: Chinese Economic Trends - Anticipated Q2 economic growth of approximately 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth around 4% and a GDP deflator potentially declining to -1.2% [6] - Retail price competition continues, with significant growth in instant retail orders and a notable increase in passenger vehicle sales, despite challenges in the automotive sector [6] Group 7: External Demand and Pricing Pressure - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in global manufacturing and demand [7] - Chinese exports to the US are cooling, while exports to non-US regions remain strong, although pricing pressures are evident across various sectors [7] Group 8: Policy Developments - Recent government policies aim to stabilize employment and support businesses, including increased unemployment insurance and social security subsidies [7] Group 9: Domestic Market Strategy - Domestic market sentiment is improving, with a focus on "anti-involution" policies and urban renewal expectations, leading to a stronger stock market performance [9] - Bond market shows weakness, with a rise in 10-year government bond yields to 1.66%, influenced by risk appetite and tightening liquidity [9] Group 10: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are experiencing upward movement driven by various factors, including easing US-China trade tensions and urban renewal policies, although the market remains vulnerable to corrections [10] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of volatility, with current valuations at high levels and requiring further catalysts for upward movement [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been implemented rapidly, but its impact on U.S. growth is limited due to significant distribution effects and a tightening fiscal effect from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts. The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][6][29] - The legislative process was expedited due to Trump's strong influence within the Republican Party and effective utilization of legislative rules, allowing the act to be signed into law just 45 days after its introduction [7][10] - The act primarily extends existing tax cuts, leading to an estimated additional $3.85 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, while incremental policies result in a marginal tightening effect, with a projected surplus of $0.49 trillion [12][18][23] Group 2 - The budget and economic effects of the act raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, with the potential for a "fiscal cliff" risk emerging around 2028 due to the act's structure of increasing deficits initially [29][32] - The economic impact of the act is assessed as limited, with various institutions estimating its cumulative effect on U.S. GDP over ten years to be around 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating a long-term neutral effect with significant distributional impacts [37][41][43] - Tariff revenues are expected to partially offset the act's budgetary and economic effects, with projections suggesting that tariff income could reduce the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, potentially covering 68% of the act's total cost [45][50][53] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. Treasury supply shocks post-implementation of the act are analyzed across three time dimensions, indicating that the immediate impact on market liquidity and long-term yield premiums is manageable [54][56] - The act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue additional bonds, which may lead to short-term liquidity tightening but is expected to be controlled in the third quarter of the year [56][58] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. debt sustainability remains a challenge, with the act's passage indicating a strong path dependency on debt expansion, suggesting that long-term Treasury yields may face upward pressure [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The delay in the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the easing of geopolitical risks, the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero, but the expected timing of interest rate cuts remains in September/October/December. [3] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the end of 2025. [4] 3.2 US Debt and Financial Market Conditions - The US unpaid public debt totaled $36.58 trillion and increased compared to last week. The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion in the next decade, and the fiscal deficit may increase by $3.4 trillion. [7] - As of July 2, the Fed's bank reserve balance was $3.26 trillion, a decrease from last week; the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale was $631.1 billion, an increase from last week; and the US Treasury cash account was $372.2 billion, an increase from last week. [10] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased compared to last week. [11] - The New York Fed's survey showed that consumers' one - year inflation expectation in June decreased to 3%. However, the expected expansion of tax cuts and fiscal deficits by the Trump administration, combined with the Fed's future interest rate cut expectations, have raised the medium - and long - term inflation expectations in the US. [16] - The US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased. The difference between the yields of long - term and medium - and short - term Treasuries also increased. [18][24] - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week. [27] - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased. [31] - The annual rate of the US Redbook commercial retail sales index was 5.90%, indicating that the US consumer industry remained prosperous. [36] - The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms in the US decreased compared to last week, causing the US MBA mortgage application activity index to increase. The number of new and existing home sales in the US in May decreased compared to the previous month. [39] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 233,000, lower than expected and the previous value, but still within a reasonable range. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.964 million, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, indicating a weakening demand for labor in the US job market. [43] 3.3 International Exchange Rates and Bond Yield Spreads - The difference in yields between US and German 10 - year Treasuries increased. [47] - The exchange rates of the euro and the pound against the US dollar began to decline. [49] 3.4 Precious Metal Market Conditions - The volatility index of US gold ETFs decreased. [53] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX gold futures increased. The holdings of SPDR gold ETF decreased compared to last week. [56][58] - The total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased compared to last week. [60] - The domestic gold futures (spot) price premium was higher than the 75th percentile of the past five years (higher than the 50th percentile of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range). It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign gold. [67] - The basis between London and COMEX gold was positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis between the gold exchange and SHFE was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE gold basis at low prices in the short term. [70] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and SHFE gold were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spreads of SHFE gold. [74] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX silver futures increased. The holdings of iShare silver ETF increased compared to last week. [76][78] - The total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver decreased compared to last week. [80] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price was between the 50th - 75th percentiles of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign silver. [86] - The basis of COMEX silver was negative and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis of Shanghai silver was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE silver basis at low prices in the short term. [90] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the near - and far - month spreads of SHFE silver. [94] - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) was slightly lower than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - silver ratio" at high prices in the short term. [97] - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) were far higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" at high prices in the short term. [101]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department indicates that with the increase in the debt ceiling, cash balances will rise, reaching $500 billion by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The increase in the debt ceiling is expected to lead to a significant rise in cash reserves [1] - By the end of the year, the cash balance is projected to reach $500 billion [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and there is a risk of correction in the non - ferrous metals market, especially for copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel [1][9][87][205]. - For copper, due to factors such as improved non - farm data, eased overseas squeeze - out risks, and high prices suppressing downstream demand, copper prices face downward pressure [9]. - For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged, and it can be considered as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - For nickel and stainless steel, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Factors include changes in macro - policies, raw material prices, and inventory levels [205][206]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and multiple metal varieties. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.0, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a weekly decline of 0.28%, and an annual decline of 10.59% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Negative factors include strong US non - farm data, Trump's signing of the "Great Beauty" bill, and tariff threats [9]. - **Raw Material**: Positive factors are a slight increase in copper concentrate spot processing fees and an increase in domestic copper ore port inventories [9]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with smelters using spot copper ore having continuous losses, and those using long - term contracts seeing reduced profits [9]. - **Demand**: Negative, as the arrival of the off - season and high copper prices have led to a significant decline in domestic copper product operating rates [9]. - **Inventory**: Negative, with global copper visible inventories increasing and the LME spot premium compressing [9]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, with copper prices at risk of correction [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction risk for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, including factors such as Trump signing a budget bill, strong US non - farm data, and China's plan to regulate the photovoltaic industry [87]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with domestic processing fees unchanged, import processing fees slightly increased, and short - term supply remaining relatively loose [87]. - **Smelting**: Bearish, as July sees a combination of maintenance, resumption, and new production, with monthly output expected to increase [87]. - **Demand**: Neutral, with the off - season and tariff uncertainties affecting demand [87]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with social inventories continuously increasing [87]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, suitable as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [87]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, with the US non - farm data affecting interest - rate cut expectations, and Trump's tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies causing market sentiment to fluctuate [205][206]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with a slight decrease in the premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore, an increase in smelter inventories, and a seasonal increase in Philippine shipments [205]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with high - level pure nickel production, weakening demand, and supply pressure on ferronickel [205]. - **Demand**: Bearish, with stainless steel in the off - season, weak spot transactions, and uncertain new - energy demand [205]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with inventory levels remaining stable [205]. - **Investment View**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention to factors such as policy changes and cost fluctuations [205]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies for unilateral trading; wait for arbitrage [205][206].

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 106,000, with the previous month's value revised from 139,000 to 144,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.12%, better than the expected 4.3% and down from the previous 4.24%[3] - The labor force participation rate was 62.28%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[3] Wage Growth - Hourly wages increased by 0.22% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%[3] - Year-on-year wage growth was 3.71%, close to the expected 3.8%[3] Market Reactions - The strong employment data led to a significant reduction in July rate cut expectations, with a 73.2% probability of a September rate cut now anticipated[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% due to improved economic data and reduced rate cut expectations[4] Legislative Impact - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) was signed into law, increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which is expected to add $4.1 trillion to the total deficit over the next decade[5] - The market had anticipated the implications of OBBB, suggesting a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario[5] Economic Outlook - The ISM Services PMI rose to 50.8, indicating expansion, while the Manufacturing PMI recorded 49, slightly above expectations[4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 2.6% growth for Q2 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.56% growth for the same period[4]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has changed his attitude towards Donald Trump due to concerns over the increasing U.S. budget deficit, which he believes could lead to national bankruptcy [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Concerns - Musk criticized Trump's signing of the "Great American Act," which he believes will increase the budget deficit from $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, exacerbating the financial situation [1] - He stated that the deficit increase would lead to "strategic damage" to the U.S. economy, potentially destroying millions of jobs and putting the country on a path of "debt servitude" [1] Group 2: Government Efficiency and Spending Cuts - Musk had previously promised to cut $2 trillion in government spending but later reduced this target to $1 trillion, achieving only a 17.5% reduction, equating to $175 billion, during his 130 days in office [1] - The "Great American Act" is seen as a fulfillment of Trump's campaign promises, extending tax cuts and increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1] Group 3: Formation of a New Political Party - Following the signing of the act, Musk established a new political party called the "American Party," aiming to secure seats in Congress to influence key votes on controversial legislation [2]

来源：参考消息 马斯克解释为何与特朗普闹翻 据俄罗斯卫星社网站7月6日报道，美国企业家马斯克在社交平台X上回复一名网友时表示，他 已经彻底改变了对特朗普的态度，因为美国预算赤字增加到2.5万亿美元会让国家破产。他对特 朗普签署的《大而美法案》中的措施表示批评。 报道称，马斯克曾承诺，在他的领导下，美国政府效率部能够削减2万亿美元的国家预算支 出，之后他将目标数值减半。但在130天的工作中，该部门仅节省了17.5%的财政开支，即1750 亿美元。 在马斯克离开白宫后不久，他与特朗普就《大而美法案》发生争执。这项法案旨在兑现特朗普 的关键竞选承诺，规定延长税收减免和其他税收优惠政策，并将美国债务上限提高5万亿美 元。 马斯克预测该法案将给美国带来"巨大战略损害"。他认为，该法案将摧毁美国数百万个就业岗 位，并使美国走上"债务奴役之路"。他认为，该法案一边为夕阳行业提供救济，一边对朝阳行 业造成严重损害。 报道提及，在特朗普7月4日晚上签署法案之后，马斯克创建了自己的政党——"美国党"。他表 示，该党的主要目标是通过进入国会并获得若干席位来确保"民意"。他解释说，该政党将在争 议性法案的表决中提供关键票数。 马斯克 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that recent Trump policies have made progress in areas such as finance, deregulation, and tariffs. The market has started to price in the medium - term "Goldilocks" scenario, bypassing short - term mild stagflation. There is a path from the current short - term mild stagflation (economic decline and inflation rise) to the "Goldilocks" scenario, and the probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policy combinations. However, the stability of this path remains to be confirmed [7]. 3. Summary according to Related Content Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act - **Deficit Impact**: By 2035, the act will increase national debt issuance by $4.1 trillion. The fiscal deficit rates from 2026 - 2029 may all be above 7%, with the peak in 2028. Compared with not implementing the act, the deficit rates in 2026 and 2027 will increase by over 1 percentage point, which will have a certain stimulating effect on economic growth in the next two years [2]. - **Distribution Aspect**: Tax cuts are mainly TCJA extensions, tax - free deductions for tips and overtime pay, and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes, showing regressive characteristics. Expenditure cuts focus on reducing welfare such as Medicaid and SNAP, reducing student loans, and canceling clean - energy tax incentives, which have a greater impact on low - income groups. The final act may cause the income of the bottom fifth of the population to decline by 2.9% (about $700), while the income of the top 1% will increase by 1.9% (about $30,000) [2][3]. - **Debt Ceiling**: The federal debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, the largest increase in history. This avoids the debt - ceiling issue before next year's mid - term elections and provides room for fiscal expansion in the next 2 - 3 years. It also affects the fiscal strength in the second half of this year compared to the first half. Additionally, the rapid replenishment of the TGA account may temporarily affect liquidity [3]. - **Clause Deletion**: Deleting the previous "Capital Tax" Clause 899 reduces the uncertainty for foreign investors, and the market may have already priced it in [4]. - **Industry Aspect**: In the United States, sectors such as semiconductors, defense, aerospace, and traditional energy are expected to benefit, while subsidies for the new - energy, electric - vehicle, and medical industries will be reduced, which is a negative factor. In terms of overall economic impact, the profitability of the consumer sector may be affected by tariffs. In the short term, focus on interest - sensitive growth sectors, and in the medium term, focus on fiscal - related pro - cyclical sectors [4]. Tariff Policy Concerns - **Tariff Rate Setting**: The US will start sending letters to countries as early as Friday to set new tariff rates before July 9, which will be implemented from August 1. Negotiations with key countries such as Europe and Japan may continue, and the new tariffs may postpone the negotiations until August 1, with the possibility of further postponement [5]. - **Tariff Rate Ranges**: The approximate tariff rate ranges for different countries are: about 10% for allied countries, about 20% for friendly countries, and over 30% for competing countries (referring to the 40% tariff on Vietnam's trans - shipped goods). Trump's claimed 60% - 70% tariff may have a punitive nature. The market's reaction to tariffs may continue to show a blunted characteristic, with expected disturbances but limited amplitude [5]. - **US - Vietnam Agreement**: The US will impose at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods from other countries trans - shipped through Vietnam. This further strengthens the prediction of tariff rate ranges. The direct impact on China is limited, and the US's intention to promote Vietnam's industrial chain localization through origin - related regulations can be hedged by China's strong industrial chain advantages in capital goods and raw materials, but the demonstrative effect is worthy of vigilance [6]. Outlook on the US Economic Scenario - **Short - term Situation**: In the short term, the US economy is in a state of mild stagflation with economic decline and inflation rise. However, there is a path to the "Goldilocks" scenario. The probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policies, and appropriate trading can be considered [7]. - **Stability Uncertainty**: The stability of this path needs to be confirmed. The key for the US economy not to enter a recession is that financial conditions should not tighten rapidly, which requires the stability of the US stock and bond markets. The specific impact of tariffs remains to be seen after the consumption of excess inventory. If inflation or corporate profitability deviates from expectations, market trading may shift again [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long run, the reconstruction of the global trade, financial, and geopolitical order is a more fundamental factor beyond economic growth rates [9].