Core Viewpoint - The recent domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened on August 12, 2025, but the retail price remains unchanged due to low crude oil price fluctuations and a failure to meet international adjustment thresholds [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude oil settling at $63.96 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.63 per barrel as of August 11, 2025 [1] - OPEC+ announced a completion of a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking an early exit from a previous reduction plan, which negatively impacted the oil market [1] - The crude oil price change rate was recorded at 0.55%, indicating a potential domestic gasoline and diesel price increase of 20 yuan per ton, but it did not reach the international adjustment threshold [1] Group 2: Gasoline Market Analysis - The operating rate of local refineries remained stable at around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries increased to approximately 84%, leading to a slight increase in refined oil supply [3] - The domestic gasoline market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere due to normal travel activities and fluctuating crude oil prices, resulting in a downward trend in gasoline prices [3] - The increasing penetration of electric vehicles has led to lower-than-expected gasoline demand [3] Group 3: Diesel Market Analysis - Diesel market supply has slightly increased, but demand has weakened due to increased rainy weather and reduced agricultural oil consumption following the summer harvest [3] - Diesel inventory reached 1.1477 million tons in July, reflecting an 11.37% month-on-month increase, indicating a potential downward trend in diesel prices [3] - The overall diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to stable infrastructure and logistics demand [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The upcoming end of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the U.S. and unresolved supply risks are expected to keep international oil prices weak in the short term [4] - Domestic refinery operating rates have increased, leading to a relaxed supply of refined oil, while gasoline demand has not shown significant growth, suggesting a continued downward trend in gasoline prices [4] - Diesel demand is also expected to decline further, indicating a potential continuation of lower diesel prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable 2. Core Viewpoints - The rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market trading is relatively light [1] - The cost - side support for asphalt has weakened due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, and the price trend will marginally weaken if oil prices continue to fall. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and limited short - term excess pressure, but there is limited upward drive from the fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,520 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,129 lots, a decrease of 3,838 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 128,452 lots, a decrease of 11,859 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,570 - 3,970 yuan/ton; South China 3,560 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and South China decreased, while other regions remained stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply - demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has warmed up, and the propylene futures market has recovered. However, the continuous decline in crude oil prices at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. On the supply side, there are maintenance works at Tianjin Bohua and Dongming Petrochemical, and the upstream operating rate has declined slightly. The overall operating rate of PDH has also decreased slightly month - on - month. There is an expectation of restarting the Bohua PDH device in early August, and with the expected release of new production capacity, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, providing phased support for demand. The overall downstream operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but the sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season of demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate are provided [16][23][26] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are given [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in domestic fuel prices in China, particularly focusing on the upcoming price adjustment scheduled for August 12, 2025, and the factors influencing these changes, including international oil prices and economic data from the U.S. [1][3][5] Price Adjustment Mechanism - The 16th price adjustment cycle for gasoline and diesel in 2025 is set from July 30 to August 12, with the last adjustment occurring on July 29 [1][3] - Current fuel prices reflect a decrease of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and 125 yuan per ton for diesel from the previous adjustments [1][3] Oil Price Trends - In the first three working days of the current pricing cycle, oil prices increased by 230 yuan per ton, but the increase slowed to 225 yuan per ton on the third day, translating to a rise of approximately 0.17-0.2 yuan per liter for various fuel types [3] - As of August 4, the average price of crude oil was reported at 70.97 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 3.95%, leading to an estimated increase of 210 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3] International Market Influences - Recent declines in international oil prices, with WTI dropping from 70 USD to 67.33 USD per barrel, have contributed to a "two consecutive declines" in domestic oil price increases [3][5] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which raised concerns about energy demand [5] Future Price Predictions - The trajectory of oil prices in the coming week is crucial; if prices continue to decline, the anticipated increase in domestic fuel prices may not materialize [7] - Conversely, if the oil market stabilizes or shows slight increases, the expected rise in domestic fuel prices could be realized [7] Regional Price Overview - The article provides a detailed table of current fuel prices across various provinces in China, indicating the price per liter for different types of gasoline and diesel [7]

Group 1 - The domestic fuel prices in China have remained unchanged for the third time this year, as announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1] - As of July 28, the reference crude oil change rate was -0.57%, indicating a potential decrease of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which did not meet the necessary condition of a 50 yuan/ton adjustment [1][2] - The current pricing cycle has resulted in a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" for fuel price adjustments in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The crude oil market lacks core driving factors, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range due to various previous developments, including OPEC+ production increases and trade negotiations [2] - As of July 29, WTI crude oil futures closed at $66.51 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures remained unchanged at $69.09 per barrel [2] Group 3 - There is a significant probability of an increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment cycle, driven by potential supply risks from new U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing traditional fuel consumption in the U.S. [4] - Market sentiment is expected to improve due to positive expectations surrounding U.S.-China negotiations, which may support a stronger crude oil price in the short term [4] Group 4 - The next fuel price adjustment window is set to open at 24:00 on August 12, 2025, with an initial estimate indicating a potential increase of 55 yuan/ton based on current international oil price levels [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

Group 1 - Domestic fuel prices have been reduced for the sixth time this year, with gasoline prices down by 130 yuan/ton and diesel prices down by 125 yuan/ton, translating to a decrease of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.11 yuan for 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1][3] - The price adjustment will lower consumer travel costs, with an example showing a savings of 5 yuan for a full tank of 92-octane gasoline in a family car and approximately 195 yuan in fuel costs for a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month [1][3] - After the adjustment, retail prices for gasoline are expected to be between 7.4 to 7.5 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 7.0 to 7.2 yuan per liter across most regions [1][3] Group 2 - The current pricing cycle has seen fluctuations in international crude oil prices, with a slight overall upward trend, influenced by high travel demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport security [3][4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.3 million barrels and 1.7 million barrels per day, respectively [3][4] - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some predicting a high likelihood of price stability while others anticipate further price reductions [5][6][7] Group 3 - The next price adjustment window is set to open on July 29, 2025, with current models indicating a potential decrease of around 10 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [7][8] - The market remains uncertain, with factors such as ongoing U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries and fluctuating geopolitical situations contributing to the volatility in oil prices [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently faces an unfavorable demand situation and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: 0) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.45 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent crude oil was $67.11 per barrel, down 0.74%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.35%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $754 per ton, up 0.47%. The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $861 per ton, down 1.51% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,800 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the settlement price was 4,804 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,972 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,990 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the external price index was $658 per ton (as of June 30), up 0.77% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,794 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,798 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The domestic spot price of p-xylene was 6,947 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PR Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.40%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - **Downstream Fiber Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan per ton, down 1.38%; the price index of polyester short fibers was 6,765 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; the price index of bottle-grade chips was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Spread Information - On July 1, 2025, the PXN spread was $290.25 per ton, down 3.71%; the PX - MX spread was $107 per ton, down 13.48%. The near - far month spread of PTA was 164 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan; the basis was 190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 62 yuan. The basis of PX was 153 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The basis of PR in the East China market was 98 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; in the South China market, it was 138 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged. The load rate of PTA factories was 76.84%, down 0.50%; the load rate of polyester factories was 88.52%, down 0.77%; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.08%, a decrease of 4.12 percentage points; the load rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.95%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rates - On July 1, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 33%, up 2 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 51%, up 11 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 43%, a decrease of 27 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting on August 1 [2] Important News - The international crude oil market lacks news guidance, and the crude oil market maintains a sideways shock. Recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the increase. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will still commission new devices in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the profitability of PX can continue to improve depends on the emergence of more unexpected factors [2] - At the beginning of the month, downstream polyester factories mainly consumed long - term contract PTA, with a low intention to purchase PTA spot, causing the PTA spot basis to weaken. Some polyester bottle chip factories implemented production cuts, which was negative for the PTA market. Although the absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change [2] - Most polyester products are theoretically operating at a loss, but the number of officially announced polyester device maintenance plans is limited. The rigid demand in June was relatively stable, and the polyester operating rate will fluctuate in July. As long as there is no significant production cut in polyester, PTA still has some support. If the production cut in the polyester industry expands in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,980 - 6,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of raw material PTA and bottle chip futures first declined and then rebounded. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips were lowered. Recently, the operating rate on the supply side of bottle chips has mainly decreased, and market liquidity may tighten. Downstream terminal demand is cautiously waiting and watching, with general purchasing sentiment [2] Trading Strategies - PTA is in a weak consolidation state. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,800 yuan per ton (-0.50%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.18 million lots. The positive impact of PX maintenance news is limited, and the price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,794 yuan per ton (-0.47%), with an intraday trading volume of 280,900 lots. PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,932 yuan per ton (-0.40%), with an intraday trading volume of 57,000 lots [2]

Core Insights - The benzene and styrene industry is expected to face a specific landscape in the second half of 2025, with a loose supply of benzene and several new production lines coming online [1] - Domestic maintenance peaks have passed, and local supply remains stable, while imports are projected to remain high at 45-50 [1] - Downstream demand for caprolactam and aniline is struggling to rebound, leading to limited growth in non-styrene downstream demand [1] Benzene Market Analysis - The benzene market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with domestic production and imports expected to meet demand [1] - Inventory levels are anticipated to increase slightly, with a phase of inventory destocking expected [1] - The overall valuation of benzene is likely to remain under pressure due to high imports and weak downstream demand [1] Styrene Market Analysis - The styrene market is facing limited positive fundamentals, with weakening demand support from the home appliance sector in the second half of the year [1] - The profitability of the styrene industry is expected to decline, leading to potential reductions in production capacity [1] - Styrene's demand is increasingly reliant on benzene, enhancing its bargaining power within the industry chain [1] Price Dynamics - The price spread between styrene and benzene may experience a slight decline in the second half of the year but is expected to remain at a medium to high level [1] - The high inventory levels in the styrene market may lead to both styrene and benzene accumulating inventory [1] Oil Price Impact - Uncertainty in the market is largely influenced by crude oil prices, with a downward trend expected in the long term [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases falling short of expectations have led to rising oil prices, which could shift market dynamics [1] - If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may trigger a replenishment of inventory, affecting the price spread between styrene and benzene [1] Strategic Recommendations - Assuming a high probability of declining crude oil prices, the strategy suggests shorting styrene and taking advantage of the styrene-benzene price spread during dips [1]