光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.81 美元至 | | | | 64.36 美元/桶，涨幅 1.27%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘上涨 0.99 美元 | | | | 至 69.04 美元/桶，涨幅 1.45%。SC2604 以 475.2 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 9.2 元/桶，涨幅 1.97%。美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新 | | | | 指南。据美国交通部海事管理局发布的指导意见，该机构建议"悬 | | | | 挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗军队要求登 | | | | 船时口头拒绝，如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强行抵抗"。OPEC1 | | | | 月石油产量下降，抵消了包括委内瑞拉在内的部分成员国产量增 | | | 原油 | 幅--此前美国抓获马杜罗、石油封锁结束。调查显示 OPEC1 月 | 震荡 | | | 原油产量为 2834 万桶/日，较 12 月减少 6 万桶/日，其 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月8日 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：短期震荡，节前轻仓防范原料波动和节后累库 供应 短纤工厂进一步检修减产，平均负荷降低至77.7%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型负荷仍在91.2%。 需求 终端开工率继续下行，下游基本已经进入春节模式，至2月10日左右，下游加弹、织造、引印染环节基本放假。静态来看，纱线、坯布环节的 成品库存一般，原料库存偏低。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国的关税较东南亚无显著劣势，节后观察持续性。短纤 ...

来源：华夏时报 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期，金联创成品油分析师王延婷告诉《华夏时报》记者，新一轮计价周期 首个工作日，变化率幅度将在-0.4%，对应汽柴油下调幅度在20元/吨附近。若后期地缘局势趋于缓和， 国际原油价格存下行空间，新一轮零售价下调概率较大。 成品油二连涨 新一轮油价调整窗口，国内成品油价格迎来二连涨。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更是自2025年9月份以来首次突破70美元/桶。 国际原油价格上涨的主要原因之一，便是美国对伊朗部署军队和航母等，加大了地区的紧张 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate at a low level and expected production in February 2026 decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, with most downstream industries' start - up rates falling, and the overall market is affected by factors such as raw material supply and geopolitical situation. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced 193.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 million tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 million tons (6.5%). Shandong refineries' production and shipments decreased. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, keeping the asphalt start - up at a low level [1] - Demand side: The start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt fell last week. Road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. Northern rigid demand is basically stagnant, but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis has been repaired but is still at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the rebound of crude oil prices, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3311 yuan/ton, the highest was 3384 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 11,833 to 98,945 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 111 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [4] - Downstream start - up: As of the week of January 30, most downstream industries' start - up rates of asphalt fell, and the road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.2 percentage points compared with that from January to November [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...

一方面，美伊局势持续紧张，风险溢价攀升。1月23日，美国财政部宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措 施，涉及多家与石油和天然气相关的公司和多艘油轮。此外，美国多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势。目前， 伊朗原油产量超过300万桶/日，出口量约200万桶/日，约占全球供应的3%。市场担忧若美伊冲突爆发， 伊朗原油出口可能受阻。此外，若局势恶化，霍尔木兹海峡或面临封锁危机。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，当前原油市场聚焦美伊局势，短期油价波动或加剧。建 议后续密切关注地缘局势、OPEC+产量政策、全球贸易争端等指引。2025年我国原油表观需求改善、 天然气表观需求微增、成品油表观需求回落。该行预计2026年2月Brent原油价格运行区间参考60-70美 元/桶，受地缘不确定性因素影响，短期油价波动将加剧。推荐PX、PTA、石化新材料等领域投资机 会。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 1月油价重心上移 截至1月30日，Brent、WTI月均价分别为64.7、60.2美元/桶，环比分别上涨5.0%、4.1%。供给端，地缘 因素叠加北美寒潮，供给缩量预期升温。 2025年我国天然气表观消费量4322亿立方米，同比增长2.4%， ...

格隆汇1月30日丨洲际油气(600759.SH)公布，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为10,500万元到15,000万元，同比减少69.24%到78.47%。公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有 者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为6,000万元到9,000万元，同比减少71.10%到80.74%。本报告期，由 于国际原油价格低于去年同期，原油销售业务利润有所下降。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Shenghong has released its annual performance forecast, indicating a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million to 150 million yuan for 2025, while expecting a net loss of 5.12 billion to 5.62 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 100 million to 150 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The expected net loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 5.12 billion and 5.62 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - The company’s 16 million tons per year refining and chemical integration project and other industrial sectors are operating smoothly with stable production and sales [1] - The company has implemented various measures such as optimizing crude oil procurement strategies, enhancing inter-industry collaboration, adjusting product output structures, and diversifying high-value-added chemical products in response to a complex external environment [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Since the beginning of 2025, the central price of crude oil has been gradually declining, and the price focus of petrochemical products has also shifted downward [1] - The company’s overall profitability has improved compared to 2024 [1]

联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 6288 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6350 元/吨 （+50），华南瓶片价格 6380 元/吨（+80）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 1617 手至 6.14 万手，空头持仓增加 643 手至 6.52 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 30.46 万吨，环比-2.07 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.7%，环比-4.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5543 元， 环比-45 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-40 元/吨，环比+58 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Antong Oilfield Services (03337), which has risen over 60% in the month, with a current price of 1.27 HKD and a trading volume of 39.8 million HKD [1] - The U.S. Air Force is set to conduct military exercises in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions of Iranian crude oil and petrochemicals due to escalating tensions, which has led to increased oil prices and heightened volatility in the market [1] - Antong Oilfield Services announced new contracts worth 1.167 billion CNY for oilfield operation and maintenance services, energy transformation technology services, and fracturing pumping technology services, although this represents a 30.5% year-on-year decline due to a high base from the previous year [1] Group 2 - In other overseas markets, the company secured multiple large contracts, including well repair services, mud services, and production equipment services, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 525.8% in new orders [1]