中东地区（包括海湾合作委员会国家和伊朗）2025年的电解铝产量约占全球 总产量（7,380 万吨）的 9%。我们预计当前的伊朗战争将从两个方面影响铝 供应：(1) 伊朗的铝产量（约 62 万吨）约占 2025 年全球总产量的 0.8%，如 果伊朗的电力基础设施和物流系统遭到破坏，将会对铝生产造成不利影响； (2) 霍尔木兹海峡的封锁将影响整个中东地区氧化铝和铝土矿的运输，同时 也会影响该地区的铝出口。美国总统特朗普透露空袭可能持续四周。我们预 计供应链不稳将支撑铝价。我们认为中国宏桥（1378 HK，买入）将从中受 益。我们同时看好创新实业（2788 HK，买入），公司在沙特阿拉伯的产能 仍处于建设阶段，因此我们预计当前的局势不会对公司产生太大影响。 （链接） 2026 年 3 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 电解铝行业 - 中东地区潜在的供应受限将支撑铝价 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/03/03 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/24 270 5489 272475 277089 -409.36 302.12 53.0 49.0 -88.20 243175 10925 2026/02/25 -380 5653 272475 287806 -801.62 221.45 51.0 48.0 -76.52 249650 12525 2026/02/26 -410 5423 272475 289219 -786.94 -98.00 50.0 47.0 -69.53 253600 12775 2026/02/27 -410 5349 391529 290594 -1481.33 -2.75 50.0 47.0 -49.47 253700 13150 2026/03/02 -350 4898 391529 295881 -1054.70 -63.48 47.0 47.0 -74.01 2 ...

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/03 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 540 4380 73 ...

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 3 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 谈判破裂美以对伊发动袭击，伊朗新领导层拒绝与美国谈判，中东战事有 扩大风险，市场避险情绪升温，锌午后翻红，主力 604 收于 24850，涨 275， 涨幅 1.12%，持仓增 756 手至 95630 手。锌受直接影响有限，伊朗境内锌矿年 产量在 25.7 万吨左右，我国自伊朗进口锌精矿 8.6 万吨，占进口总量 1.62%， 但供应扰动预期仍对本就紧张的锌矿市场形成情绪支撑。国内消费尚未恢复， 周一社库继续录增 3.47 万吨至 25.46 万吨，高库存弱需 ...

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者李小天 战火的蔓延迅速引发区域连锁反应：中东多国紧急关闭领空，部分国家全面暂停航班运营，其余国家 也中断了往返冲突区域的航线，大量旅客滞留机场，区域航空运输彻底陷入混乱。与此同时，霍尔木 兹海峡的油轮运输因安全风险全面停滞，周边海域船只纷纷停航避险，这场军事对抗已快速蔓延至能 源、交通等核心领域，其影响不仅席卷中东，更向全球局势辐射。 焦虑也在中东华人出海社群中急速扩散：有人登上从上海飞往利雅得的航班，落地后却无法下机，只 得被迫返航，历经近三十小时的空中飞行，最终回到原地；外贸、物流与跨境电商从业者焦头烂额， 直面航运受阻、货物交付停滞带来的一系列难题与直接损失；身处中东的出海人，大多选择闭门不 出、居家避险，偶尔在阳台拍下头顶呼啸而过的战机，以及导弹被拦截后坠落的残骸。可即便是足不 出户，也难以获得绝对安全，猝然坠落的无人机竟会径直砸向民居，将屋内撞得七零八落。 一边是反复无常、持续升级的武装冲突，一边是亟待运营、不容停滞的出海业务，被困在硝烟中的中 国出海人，正切身经历着中东社会的核心矛盾：海湾国家迫切希望摆脱过往阴霾，以稳定与发展重塑 中东形象，告别数十年的冲突与绝望；可殖 ...

能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 INE 主力原油期货收涨 43.50 元/桶，涨幅 8.98%，报 527.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 263.00 元/吨，涨幅 9.00%，报 3186.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 310.00 元/吨，涨 幅 8.99%，报 3757.00 元/吨。 橡胶、聚酯、PVC 分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.12 百万桶至 11.02 百万桶，环比累库 1.07%； 柴油库存环比累库 0.66 百万桶至 16.64 百万桶，环比累库 4.15%；燃料油库存环比去库 1.54 百万桶至 5.46 百万桶，环比去库 21.96%；石脑油环比去库 0.29 百万桶至 5.55 百万桶，环 比去库 4.93%；航空煤油环比去库 0.95 百万桶至 6.59 百万桶，环比去库 12.55%；总体成品 油环比去库 1.99 百万桶至 45.27 百万桶，环比去库 4.21%。 严梓桑（联系人） 油品、甲醇、尿素、聚烯 烃 ...

中东地缘冲突升级对甲醇和聚烯烃的影响 2026 年 2 月 28 日，以色列率先对伊朗进行了多轮空袭，随着美军的加入， 美以对伊朗的联合空袭已经从"代理人冲突"升级为"直接军事打击"。这一黑 天鹅事件对甲醇和聚烯烃的影响逻辑截然不同:甲醇将是"供应端的直接冲击", 聚烯烃则主要是"成本端的间接传导"。 伊朗是我国最大的甲醇单一进口来源国，2025 年我国从伊朗进口的甲醇占 总进口量的 45%左右,其中华东沿海的主要消费地中,进口甲醇的占比高达 80% 以上。虽然前期由于季节性限气的原因，伊朗大部分甲醇装置仍处于停车状态， 我国自伊朗的进口量出现断崖式下降。但随着伊朗地区气温的逐步回暖，伊朗甲 醇装置也开始进入到复工复产阶段。据最新市场消息称，目前 ZPC 双线甲醇装 置（330 万吨/年）已重启运行，Kimiya（165 万吨/年）和 Sabalan（165 万吨 /年）甲醇装置也计划于２月底至３月中上旬重启生产。而且从德黑兰近期气温 回升偏快且比往年同期明显偏高的角度而言，市场也预计甲醇企业复产的时间节 点较 2025 年要早（2025 年普遍在 3 月重启，且 2 月底时的寒潮还导致了多套 装置二次限气） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: After the Chinese New Year, PTA plant restart accelerated, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, short - term terminal inventory accumulation was average, and the downward pressure on the basis was controllable. Affected by the plant restart news, the PTA spot price declined, and the processing margin quickly narrowed to within 300. Attention should be paid to the downstream capacity - utilization increase progress [5]. - MEG: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large - scale military strike against Iran. Under the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the cost side increased significantly. The proportion of Iranian goods in the overall imports is around 15%, and there is an obvious expectation of a reduction in ethylene glycol imports in April. From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance plans of coal - chemical plants are gradually clear. In March, plants such as Yulin Chemical, Yueneng, Zhongkun, and Zhonghuaxue will have shutdown or load - reduction arrangements. Combining with the planned maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical, the average load of ethylene glycol in March will drop to around 70%. From March, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will gradually turn to a tight balance, and continuous inventory reduction can be achieved in the second quarter. The external and macro factors resonate, and the price center of ethylene glycol is significantly pushed up. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report 3.2每日提示 - No information provided in the report 3.3今日关注 - No information provided in the report 3.4基本面数据 3.4.1 PTA - **Fundamentals**: On the previous day, PTA futures rose sharply following the cost side. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. Some mainstream suppliers offered to sell. This week, some transactions were around 05 - 60, next week's mainstream transactions were at 05 - 55, and some were slightly lower at 05 - 50~52, with the price negotiation range at 5265~5500. Transactions in late March were around 05 - 45. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5345, the basis of the 05 contract is - 207, and the futures price is at a premium, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 5.47 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.46 days, which is bearish [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short, short positions decreased, bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: After the Chinese New Year, PTA plant restart accelerated, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, short - term terminal inventory accumulation was average, and the downward pressure on the basis was controllable. Affected by the plant restart news, the PTA spot price declined, and the processing margin quickly narrowed to within 300. Attention should be paid to the downstream capacity - utilization increase progress [5]. 3.4.2 MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol rose significantly. In the afternoon, the 2605 contract hit the daily limit, and the buying in the market followed well. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz passage led to a significant increase in chemical products. The price center of ethylene glycol rose significantly during the day. Some Iranian plants shut down and stopped shipments, which significantly boosted market sentiment. The mainstream spot negotiation during the day was around a discount of 57 - 82 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and the buying in the market followed well [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3750, the basis of the 05 contract is - 175, and the futures price is at a premium, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 94.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.94 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main positions**: Net short, short positions decreased, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large - scale military strike against Iran. Under the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the cost side increased significantly. The proportion of Iranian goods in the overall imports is around 15%, and there is an obvious expectation of a reduction in ethylene glycol imports in April. From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance plans of coal - chemical plants are gradually clear. In March, plants such as Yulin Chemical, Yueneng, Zhongkun, and Zhonghuaxue will have shutdown or load - reduction arrangements. Combining with the planned maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical, the average load of ethylene glycol in March will drop to around 70%. From March, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will gradually turn to a tight balance, and continuous inventory reduction can be achieved in the second quarter. The external and macro factors resonate, and the price center of ethylene glycol is significantly pushed up. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [7]. 3.4.3 Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: Gulei Petrochemical's 700,000 - ton plant will start maintenance in early March and is expected to last until around the end of April [9]. - **Negative factors**: Initially, the polyester maintenance volume from January to February around the Spring Festival was 9.11 million tons and 7.06 million tons respectively, with a total of around 16.17 million tons. Another 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March [10]. 3.4.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted for the market rebound [11]. 3.4.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, imports, inventory changes, domestic utilization rates, and demand from polyester and other aspects [12]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, imports, exports, consumption, and surplus, as well as year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and consumption [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, imports, consumption, and surplus, along with year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production, imports, supply, and consumption [14]. 3.4.6 Price - It provides price information of various products on March 2, 2026, and February 27, 2026, including spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis of PTA and MEG, and profit information of related products [15]. 3.4.7 Other Data - There are also data on PET bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, inventory analysis, upstream and downstream capacity utilization rates, and profit information of related products, presented in the form of charts [17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][42][53][57][60][61].

周末中东地缘局势快速升温，哈梅内伊身亡，随后伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布全面封锁霍尔木兹海 峡，禁止所有船只通行。3 月 1 日晚，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在声明中表示，在继续对敌方海上目标的 攻击中。3 月 2 日新华社引半岛电视台援引伊朗军方的消息报道，三艘英美油轮在波斯湾和霍尔木兹 海峡遭到袭击。船视宝数据显示，自 28 日以来，周边海域船舶航行速度普遍降至零，大量船舶"趴 窝"在附近紧急避险，霍尔木兹海峡两端被迫滞留的船舶已有一百多艘，霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航数量 断崖式下降： 数据来源：船视宝 异动点评: 地缘冲突持续升级，原油期货高开涨停 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 罗鸣（投资咨询资格编号：Z0023753） 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 电话：020-88818032 邮箱：qhluom@gf.com.cn 行情导读：截至今日下午收盘，上海能源交易所原油期货主力合约上涨 8.98%，报 527.8 元/桶，日增仓 6522 手。核心逻辑在于周末美伊激烈交火，且冲突有进一步扩大的趋势，地缘冲突快速升级，伊朗革命 卫队宣布禁止船只通行霍尔木兹海峡，超 150 艘油轮在海湾海域集体抛锚停 ...

研究所 液化气研发报告 液化气日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 液化气日报 日度数据 原油天然气市场 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn 1 / 6 研究所 液化气研发报告 1. 有行业消息人士称，沙特国有石油巨头阿美公司（Aramco）已关闭其拉斯塔努拉（Ras Tanura）炼油厂，原因是该厂遭到无人机袭击。2. 多家船东互保协会表示，由于伊朗及海湾 地区的冲突，它们正在取消为船舶提供的战争风险保险。3. 比利时国防部长特奥·弗兰肯表 示，比利时于周日扣押了一艘属于俄罗斯"影子船队"的油轮，该油轮涉嫌使用"虚假船旗 和虚假文件"航行。4. 由于美国与主要产油国伊朗之间的冲突扰乱了全球石油流动，美国平 均汽油零售价格预计将在周一（3 月 2 日）突破每加仑 3 美元，为三个多月来首次。 行情研判 沙特装船影响叠加地缘冲突的爆发，国际液化气市场预计成本端支撑明显。霍尔木兹海峡的 封锁更是影响到中国的进口，在此基础上，液化气内外盘均有大幅走强预期。（以上观点仅 供参考，不做为入市依据 ...