1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP, PVC [1] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] - Bearish consolidation: Glass, soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. For example, geopolitical tensions and macro - factors are driving short - term price rebounds in some products, while long - term supply - demand imbalances may lead to price declines [1][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose significantly, with WTI up 5.62%, Brent up 4.31%, and SC up 2.76% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical tensions in South America and new sanctions on Russia have led to a price rebound, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by sanctions on Russian oil companies; demand growth is expected to slow; and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the SC range of [465 - 475] [9]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On October 23, the PG main contract closed at 4204 yuan/ton, up 1.79% [11][12]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost of crude oil. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has improved, and port inventories have declined [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6999 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has limited restocking motivation [18]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the L range of [6900 - 7050] [18]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall, and cost support is insufficient [23]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4719 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventories are high, but there is an expectation of increased exports. New production capacity has been mostly released, and attention should be paid to potential production cuts [27]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - term light - position participation in the rebound is recommended. Pay attention to the V range of [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Basic Logic**: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has decreased slightly, demand is expected to improve, and cost is supported by the short - term oil price rebound [28]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the PX range of [6520 - 6600] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 contract closed at 4402 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to increase with planned plant overhauls and new plant startups. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is a high inventory build - up pressure from October to November. It follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [31]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the TA range of [4520 - 4580] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG01 contract closed at 4085 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic plants have increased production, overseas plants have slightly decreased production, and inventories have increased slightly. It has limited upward momentum and follows the cost [34]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The MA01 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: High inventories suppress spot prices. Supply pressure is high, and demand lacks significant positive factors. Cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1602 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but exports are good. Inventories are accumulating, and cost support exists [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, but consider light - position long - term long positions due to low valuations. Pay attention to the UR range of [1615 - 1645] [43]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: With the decrease in temperature, demand is expected to increase, but supply is also sufficient. Short - term geopolitical factors should be monitored [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned in the report. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and cost is affected by geopolitical factors. Current valuations are high [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options [5]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: Post - holiday inventories have increased counter - seasonally, domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure [5]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in short - term trading due to capital games, and be bearish on medium - term rebounds [5]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Inventories are high, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [5]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Hold long positions in the soda - glass spread [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].

Market Performance - On October 23, U.S. stock indices showed strength, with the Dow Jones up 0.31%, S&P 500 up 0.58%, and Nasdaq up 0.89% [2][3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.66%, indicating a positive trend for popular Chinese stocks [4] Company Earnings Reports - Intel reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase for Q3, leading to a post-market stock price surge of over 7%, with a total market value of $167 billion [5][6] - Ford Motor Company adjusted its full-year adjusted EBIT forecast down to $6 billion to $6.5 billion from a previous estimate of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, causing initial stock price declines but later a rebound of over 3% in after-hours trading [7][8] - Tesla's Q3 revenue increased by 12%, but adjusted net profit fell by 29%, resulting in a stock price increase of 2.28% by the end of the trading day [4] Commodity Market - International gold prices rebounded, with COMEX gold futures rising nearly 2% to $4,143.2 per ounce, and Brent crude oil futures also saw an increase of over 5% [9][10] - Analysts expect oil prices to experience high-level fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts and supply-side contractions [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Many products are in a state of short - term shock, with some showing upward or downward trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - events [10][18][53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Follows the oil price rebound. In the short - term, it's a shock market. When PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge. There may be a reduction in load later. Supply - demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support [10]. - **PTA**: The demand is expected to improve marginally. It's a unilateral shock market, and short positions are recommended to be reduced. New devices are planned to start this week, and the basis has fallen [10]. - **MEG**: The demand expectation has improved, and there is a short - term rebound. Short positions are recommended to be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [9][10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The import volume of natural rubber in September increased, and the main rubber types and source countries showed a significant increase [11][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, while the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low [16][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt has risen rapidly due to geopolitical stimulation. The trend strength is relatively strong. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][29]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates slightly, and the market is in a negative feedback stage. Supply pressure will increase, and inventory pressure is high [30][31]. 3.6 PP - PP still shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates in a narrow range. Trade wars, high supply, and falling oil prices suppress the market price [34][35]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The trend strength is neutral. The supply pressure is not significant in October, but the valuation is always restricted by the expected reduction of alumina production [38][39]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The futures market is strong, while the spot market is stagnant. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price of white cardboard may rise [42][44][45]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is neutral. The market price is slightly weak, and the trading is light. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [46][47]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is neutral. The port inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low, and it is affected by macro - events [50][53][54]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is large, the valuation is high, and the domestic demand is weak [55][57][58]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene continues to have a negative feedback in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The short - term is in an oscillating state. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to reduction, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [59][60]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [63][64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - For LPG, the market valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist. For propylene, it is supported by cost and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term. The trend strength of both is neutral [67][70]. 3.15 PVC - PVC shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price is stable, and the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is affected by trade wars, with low - level procurement mentality being weak and cost declining [74]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, with increased market fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is relatively resistant to decline. The shipping prices of European and US - West routes have increased to varying degrees, and the market shows certain resilience [79].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple factors in both international and domestic markets, leading to expected reductions in gasoline and diesel prices in China [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 21, the oil price change rate has dropped to -7.93%, with anticipated reductions of 320 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.24 to 0.27 yuan per liter [1]. - Following the price adjustments, the average price of 92-octane gasoline is expected to fall from 7.04 yuan per liter to a range of 6.77 to 6.80 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded its forecasts for global oil demand growth, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to anticipated economic slowdowns [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Iran, their impact on oil prices has diminished as market supply has increased, leading to a return to fundamental pricing [5][7]. - The end of the peak oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has raised concerns about future demand, with expectations of a decline in global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter [7].

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China are expected to hold a new round of trade negotiations, with discussions focusing on key issues such as agricultural exports and rare earth supplies[11] - The Nasdaq index rose by 2.1% as market concerns over trade tensions eased following the US's softened stance[12] - The upcoming negotiations may prioritize short-term outcomes and risk management, with a focus on tariffs and non-tariff barriers[12] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump and Putin discussed the potential for a meeting in Hungary, indicating a desire to stabilize US-Russia relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions[14] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.2% due to concerns over supply surplus and geopolitical easing, while the Russian RTS index increased by 5.4% following the Trump-Putin conversation[14] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[17] Group 3: Domestic US Politics - The US government shutdown continues, with both parties showing little urgency to resolve the situation, reflecting a politically charged environment[18] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may shift legislative power back to Congress, potentially leading to more stringent trade measures[17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, increasing by 24.5% in just over a month, is attributed to inflation and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Movement - Gold prices have risen from $1,200 per ounce in 2019 to $3,500 in April 2023, and further increased from $3,300 to $4,150 in August 2023 [1][3][17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors driving the recent gold price increase include: 1. Inflation concerns, as gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation [3]. 2. Geopolitical instability and financial uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safety in gold [3][5]. - Three key reasons for the surge in gold prices over the past year are: 1. A loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar, with expectations of long-term depreciation [3]. 2. Deteriorating international geopolitical conditions, raising fears of potential conflicts [3]. 3. Concerns over a possible global financial crisis [3]. Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that significant bull markets in gold often precede financial crises, with notable price increases observed before the 1974 and 2008 financial crises [10][18]. - The current gold price trajectory resembles the pre-crisis conditions seen in 2008, suggesting a potential for volatility [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The analysis suggests that investors may benefit from waiting for a potential financial crisis to buy gold at lower prices, as historical trends indicate that gold prices may drop significantly during such events [24][26]. - The recommendation is to avoid chasing high prices and consider accumulating gold during market corrections [24][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: Amid Sino - US trade frictions, market risk preferences may be suppressed in the short - term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is affected by the strong stock market, and gold and silver maintain their strength due to geopolitical and policy factors [2]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, the shipping index is short - term strong, while steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors, and most chemical products are under downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index** - **Trend**: Sino - US trade frictions lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. The export chain is warming up, and the index rebounds with shrinking volume [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. **Treasury Bonds** - **Trend**: The 10 - year Treasury bond has different values at different interest rate levels. The short - term bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within the range, and the T2512 fluctuation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Trend**: Gold remains strong before the geopolitical conflict eases and the US policy situation becomes clear. Silver also maintains its strength due to slow overseas EFP conversion progress [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in gold and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Keep a long - buying idea for silver above 11000 yuan [2]. **Shipping Index (EC - European Line)** - **Trend**: The short - term trend is strong and fluctuating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously go long [2]. **Steel** - **Trend**: Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the steel market is converging [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the month - spread should be short - sold at high prices. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is converging [2]. **Iron Ore** - **Trend**: Supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the market is turning weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the range is between 750 - 800. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Trend**: After the holiday, the coal price in the producing areas is weak, and the downstream replenishment demand is weakening. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the holiday, but further increases are difficult [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1080 - 1200. Go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1550 - 1700. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Trend**: Copper prices fluctuate, alumina cost support is loosening, aluminum and its alloys maintain high - level oscillations, zinc prices have limited support, tin prices are weak, nickel prices oscillate, and stainless steel demand is insufficient [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For copper, pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000. For other metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their trends, such as waiting for buying opportunities for tin [2]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Trend**: Oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and pessimistic IEA reports. Most chemical products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given for each product, such as short - selling at high prices, holding short positions, and conducting arbitrage operations [2]. **Agricultural Products** - **Trend**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar, cotton, and eggs are weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding 3 - 7 reverse spreads for live pigs [2]. **Special and New Energy Commodities** - **Trend**: Glass production and sales are average, rubber is affected by the peak production season, industrial silicon prices are weak, polysilicon prices are rising, and lithium carbonate maintains oscillations [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding long positions for polysilicon [2].

10月14日，现货黄金首次站上4140美元/盎司。 回顾十月以来的金价历程可以看到，10月以来，黄金价格延续了9月的上涨态势。10月1日现货黄金的收盘价格为3865.41美元/盎司，截至10月14日10时53 分，记者通过wind查询伦敦现货黄金价格为4145.94美元/盎司，日涨幅接近0.9%，十月以来涨幅已超过7%。 | 10:54 | e | (1) 1) 11 100 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | < w Q | 伦敦金现 | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4145.941 昨结 4109.430 开盘 4110.420 | | | | | +36.511 +0.89% 总量(kq) | | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 4149.890 | 持 仓 | 0 外 盘 | 0 | | 最低价 4106.365 | 增 仓 | 0 内 盘 | 0 | 黄金持续攀升 近期，国际金价持续上行引发市场广泛关注，其未来走势究竟如何？多家机构及市场数据给出了不同维度的分析与呈现。 中信证券研究在其发布的《政治视角下的欧洲财政困境与黄金价值》一文中 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations during the current pricing cycle, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production expectations, leading to a decrease in domestic refined oil prices for the eighth time this year [1] - From October 13, 2025, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 0.06 yuan per liter, resulting in savings of approximately 3 yuan for consumers filling a small car's 50L tank [1] - The reference crude oil price change rate was -1.81% as of October 10, 2025, indicating a downward trend in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and trade issues [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market sentiment has turned cautious, with expectations of further declines in oil prices due to the diminishing geopolitical premium and renewed concerns over trade tariffs [2] - The new pricing cycle is expected to start with a negative crude oil change rate, predicting a reduction in retail fuel prices by approximately 260 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for October 27, 2025 [2]