1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose strong tariffs on Russia, and Powell emphasizes employment and inflation risks. Gold prices are driven up by Fed's potential rate - cut expectations and Trump's tariff sanctions, but there is a risk of correction before the National Day holiday in China [13][14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of price correction in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Three Fed officials think setting an inflation target range is more beneficial. Trump believes Ukraine can retake all its territory, and Powell says US stocks are "valued quite high". The US dollar index is expected to be weak in the short term [16][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Wang Yi meets with US congressmen, and China's education reaches the average level of high - income countries. The A - share market shows a V - shaped reversal with increased trading volume, and the technology sector remains resilient. Short - term attention should be paid to trading volume changes [20][21]. - Investment advice: Consider moderate profit - taking [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI decline. Powell mentions that the stock market is over - valued, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the overall outlook is still positive [23][24][27]. - Investment advice: Although valuation concerns may cause short - term disturbances, maintain a bullish view overall [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is in a weak sentiment, and short - term trading should follow a range - bound strategy [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term and avoid chasing up [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Domestic soybean mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes during the National Day holiday are reported, and some mills in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. Argentina suspends export taxes on grains and oilseed meals, affecting the market [32][33]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to whether M2601 can be effectively supported at 2900 [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreases. Argentina's tax - exemption policy impacts the global oil market, but short - term oversold rebound opportunities can be considered [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term oversold rebound opportunities in the P2601 contract, but control positions [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Muyuan Co., Ltd. establishes an overseas business team. The pig market is in a negative feedback stage, with the short - term trend following the spot market and a medium - long - term view of shorting on rebounds [38]. - Investment advice: Short on rebounds unilaterally and continuously monitor reverse spreads [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. With the approaching of the new corn season, the market expects a bumper harvest and normal listing, and the mid - term view is bearish [40]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions [40]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first eight months exceed 4.7 trillion yuan, and the average construction machinery operating rate in August is 43.42%. Steel prices are range - bound with limited upward and downward space [41][42]. - Investment advice: Expect a range - bound rebound before the holiday, but the space is limited [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn starch exports in August decline. The price of raw corn stops falling, and the export demand is not expected to have a significant positive impact on the fundamentals [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term supply - demand situation of starch is bearish for the corn - starch price spread, but pay attention to potential changes in the regional price spread after the large - scale listing of Northeast corn [44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are growing normally, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 shows a small increase. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to be range - bound, and pay attention to the development of jujube fruits and purchasing situation [46]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expected to start in stages by the end of 2025. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and the import pressure is increasing [47][48]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies [49]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic component tender sets a price limit. Polysilicon prices are expected to be range - bound, and the spot price is not expected to fall in October. The component price is expected to be range - bound, and the terminal demand may decline [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The polysilicon price is expected to be range - bound between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and consider going long at the current level [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's silicon wafer exports in August increase. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in September - October and reduce inventory in November - December. The strategy of going long on dips has a higher probability of success [54][55]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - High US tariffs disrupt the stainless - steel market. The nickel market has potential supply - side disturbances, and the low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. - Investment advice: The global nickel inventory is high, but low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India initiates an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese copper cables. The macro - support for copper prices weakens, but the inventory accumulation pressure eases. Copper prices are expected to continue to be range - bound at a high level [57][61]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, and be cautious during the holiday. Also, wait and see for arbitrage [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to issue bonds for debt refinancing, and a lithium carbonate project is put into production. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the price may fall after the demand peak [62][63][64]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious when shorting in the short term, and consider shorting on rebounds in the medium term [64]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a deep contango. The domestic lead market has improved demand, and the social inventory has reached an inflection point. The price is expected to be range - bound and bullish [65]. - Investment advice: Try to go long on dips for single - sided trading and consider positive spreads for arbitrage [65]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a backwardation, and some zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. The market has a potential soft - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc price is affected. Consider positive spreads [66][67]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, consider positive spreads for arbitrage, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign trading [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreases, and Russia discusses the possibility of a diesel export ban. Oil prices are range - bound [68][69]. - Investment advice: Wait for new market drivers as oil prices are range - bound [70]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on September 23 increases, but the market volume does not expand significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [70][71]. - Investment advice: Expect a further decline in the short term [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong varies. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable in the short term [72][73][74]. - Investment advice: The spot price is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited [74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is basically stable. The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [75][76]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreases. The market is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits further decline. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's pure benzene import data in August is reported. The pure benzene and styrene markets are range - bound and bearish. The supply of styrene is affected by maintenance, and the demand has short - term resilience [78][79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to how to solve the inventory contradiction after the peak season, and the industrial chain profit may be further compressed [80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreases, and the market trading volume is acceptable. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and the long - term demand is weak. Pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [81][82][83]. - Investment advice: The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continues to fall. The supply may increase in Q4, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [84][85]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea import and export data in August is reported. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. Pay attention to policy support [87][88][89]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended that strategic reserve buyers make dispersed purchases [89]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreases, and the market trading is normal. The demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation is postponed. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [90][91]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [92]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is normal, and the futures price falls. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be shorted on rallies [93]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [94]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe is stable. The market is weak, and the 01 contract has a high premium over the spot price. Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [95][96]. - Investment advice: Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [96]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express route is launched. The spot container freight rate is falling, and the 10 - month contract price may decline slightly. Consider short - term arbitrage opportunities [97][98]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profit on the 10 - month contract on dips, pay attention to low - long opportunities for the 12 - month contract after a significant decline, and consider short - term positive spreads for the 12 - 02 contract [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong. London gold has reached a new high of around $3,765, and London silver is close to its 14 - year high. Due to external market influence, Shanghai gold closed up 2% at 855.44 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan/kilogram. With the US in a rate - cut cycle, potential fiscal issues in major overseas economies, and possible geopolitical conflicts, precious metals show long - term investment value. Short - term fluctuations can be treated with a low - buying strategy [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold reached around $3,765, and London silver stood at around $44. Shanghai gold closed up 2% at 855.44 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fluctuated narrowly around 97.35 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year yield dropped slightly to around 4.13% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: It also fluctuated narrowly around 7.113 [6]. Important Information - Fed views: Bostic believes there's little reason for further rate cuts this year; Musalem thinks the space for rate cuts is limited; Harker advocates caution in policy loosening; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and opposes adjusting the 2% inflation target [7]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.7%, a 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and a 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [7]. Logic Analysis - After the Fed cut rates by 25 bps last week as expected, with high expectations of two more cuts this year, the risk of stagflation in the US persists, and geopolitical conflicts may arise. Gold continued to rise after a short adjustment. Silver showed greater upward elasticity due to a more optimistic market sentiment, and the gold - silver ratio slightly recovered. The upcoming US PMI data may cause market fluctuations [8][10]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12]. - Options: Consider a collar call option [13]. Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals: There are charts showing the relationship between the dollar index and London gold and silver [15][16]. - Real yields and precious metals: Charts display the relationship between real yields and London gold and silver [18][22]. - Domestic and foreign futures: There are charts presenting the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][23]. - Futures and spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold and silver [25][26]. - Domestic - foreign price differences: Charts illustrate the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [29][31]. - Gold - silver ratio: There are charts showing the gold - silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [35][37]. - ETF holdings: Charts display the holdings of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF [39][41]. - Futures open interest: Charts show the open interest of gold and silver futures [42][43]. - Futures inventory: Charts present the inventory of gold and silver futures [48][44]. - Trading volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold and silver [45][47]. - TD data: Charts display the deferred fees, delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][53][56]. - Treasury yields and inflation: Charts show the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance, and the pressure for a correction may gradually increase. It is more likely that they will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs, and stronger catalysts are needed to drive the gold price higher. It is recommended to wait and see for now and lightly lay out short positions on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 855.44 yuan/gram, up 8.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 10349 yuan/kg, up 32 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 271554 lots, up 11298 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 508755 lots, up 4704 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 173770 lots, down 552 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 111047 lots, down 17930 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 59013 kg, up 1584 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1149043 kg, up 419 kg [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 847.8 yuan/gram, up 12.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 10246 yuan/kg, up 79 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 7.64 yuan/gram, up 3.46 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 103 yuan/kg, up 47 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1000.57 tons, up 6.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15368.9 tons, up 163.76 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold (quarterly) is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (annually) is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold (quarterly) is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver (annually) is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 18.91%. The 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.46%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 18.91% [3] 3.5 Industry News - St. Louis Fed President Musalem said the current interest - rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral" with limited room for further rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic doesn't support further rate cuts due to high inflation. Fed Governor Milan will push for rate cuts unless the situation changes. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3%. Geopolitical conflicts provide safe - haven support, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in September is 49.5, and the US government debt issue and the weak dollar support the gold price [3]

未来一周：持续关注中美互动；联合国大会；地缘冲突；美国关税及其他内 政。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 21 日 聚焦中美关系后续进展 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：中美第四轮经贸会谈及中美元首通话；王毅外长访问欧洲；地缘冲 突；美国关税及其他内政。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）9 月 14-15 日中美第四轮经贸会谈；9 月 19 日中美元首通话。中美经贸 会谈仍延续此前先解决短期风险、稳定市场预期，同时继续推动更深层 次磋商、积累互信，但坚持底线不急于达成最终协议的风格。除经贸议 题，近期中美在军事外交上也持续互动。考虑到特朗普政府目前在其他 地缘冲突议程上缺乏进展、对俄油买家制裁威胁实施难度大、美国内政 问题持续占据政府精力，持续关注中美后续互动及双边关系进展，关注 下一轮经贸会谈、10 月底在韩国举办的 APEC 峰会。 2）9 月 12-16 日王毅外长访问奥地利、斯洛文尼亚、波兰。其中，中国波 兰双方讨论了中国稀土相关物项对波出口许可事宜，且愿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2510 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,138 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 5.98% month-on-month to 354,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.76% month-on-month to 74.98%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates of styrene increased to varying degrees last week; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 6.52% month-on-month to 277,900 tons. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 2.52% month-on-month to 220,300 tons, the inventory at East China ports decreased by 9.92% month-on-month to 1.59 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports increased by 14.74% month-on-month to 218,000 tons. This week, the 320,000-ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was restarted, and the impact of the short-term shutdown of Zibo Junchen's 500,000-ton plant subsided, so there is an expectation of an increase in production and capacity utilization. There are still large-scale plant maintenance plans in the second half of this month, but the 800,000-ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical is expected to restart in the second half of the month, and the supply side is expected to see limited reduction in the future. This week, the load of EPS, PS, and ABS plants is expected to be slightly adjusted with little change. Affected by the weak procurement in the household appliance industry, currently ABS is slightly in the red and the inventory has continuously risen to a historical high. Attention should be paid to the transmission of future negative factors to the upstream. The inventory pressure of styrene remains high. In terms of cost, recent international oil prices have strengthened supported by geopolitical conflicts. Macroscopically, the talks among China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key domestic industries is about to be introduced. Technically, for EB2510, pay attention to the support around 7,100 and the resistance around 7,220 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of styrene was 7,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the futures trading volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 144,412 lots, a decrease of 20,911 lots; the closing price of the November contract of styrene was 7,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88,537 yuan; the long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was not provided; the futures holding volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 157,069 lots, a decrease of 29,390 lots; the net long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was -32,813 lots, an increase of 4,980 lots; the short position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was 389,295 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots; the total warehouse receipt quantity of styrene was 1,783 lots, an increase of 343 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,324 - 7,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price of styrene was 879 - 7,085 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 - 80 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price of styrene was 889 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of styrene in the South China region decreased by 15 yuan (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the North China region (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the East China region was 7,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 751.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 723.17 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 257 cents/gallon, a decrease of 1 cent; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total operating rate of styrene was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76%; the national inventory of styrene was 220,277 tons, an increase of 5,420 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 159,000 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons; the trade inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 78,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 61.02%, an increase of 8.5%; the operating rate of ABS was 70%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of PS was 61.9%, an increase of 0.9%; the operating rate of UPR was 34%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 69.57%, an increase of 1.92% [2] Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 5.98% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76% month-on-month. From September 5th to 11th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 277,900 tons, an increase of 6.52% from the previous period. As of September 11th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 220,300 tons, an increase of 2.52% from the previous cycle [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures market is stabilizing, with overall commodity sentiment positive. Supply may decline due to planned maintenance, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening, while non - alumina demand is improving but with limited price support. Spot prices may stabilize, and the downside of futures prices is limited [27]. - The PVC futures market is rebounding, driven by macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance this week, and demand from downstream products is slightly increasing. The cost side is providing bottom support, and it is expected to stop falling in the peak season from September to October [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and short - term demand has some support, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term [30]. - PTA's spot market liquidity is good, and the medium - term supply - demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and TA1 - 5 should be rolled in a reverse spread [30]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to reduce inventory in September but increase inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and use EG1 - 5 reverse spread [30]. - Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100 [30]. - Bottle - chip's supply increases slightly, and demand may decline. It mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be supported by the strong oil price and good macro - atmosphere, and BZ2603 should follow styrene to fluctuate strongly [35]. - Styrene's price is strongly supported but the upside is limited by high port inventory. EB10 should be bought at low prices, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread should be widened at low levels [35]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have rebounded in the past two days, driven by supply - side maintenance expectations. Demand is mainly supported by export and industrial needs, and the futures increase is mainly due to short - covering and expectation differences [39][40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol's supply in the inland is at a high level, and demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The inventory pattern is relatively healthy, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high - inventory reality and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be monitored [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - PP's PDH and propylene - purchasing profits are suppressed, with more unplanned maintenance and falling inventory, but the basis is still weak. PE's maintenance is at a relatively high level, with short - term low supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand for new orders is poor, and the market is in a state of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, which increased concerns about supply disruptions of Russian refined oil and crude oil. The market's focus has shifted to immediate supply risks, and the oil price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the options side after volatility increases [48] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 16, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 3.0%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 4.4%. The prices of East - China PVC increased, and the prices of related futures contracts also changed slightly [27]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%, while the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC decreased by 12.8% [27]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all increased slightly, and the start - up rates of downstream PVC products also increased [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 17.0%, and the total social inventory of PVC decreased slightly by 0.3% [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 16, the prices of most downstream polyester products increased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [30]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX price decreased by 0.2%, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 0.9% [30]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the processing fee of PTA's spot increased by 19.6% [30]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the basis of EG01 increased [30]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA all increased, while the start - up rate of pure - polyester yarn decreased [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3% [35]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene's East - China spot increased by 0.8%, and the cash flows of non - integrated and integrated styrene improved [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of some products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased, while the start - up rates of downstream PS and EPS increased [35]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: On September 16, the prices of urea futures contracts increased slightly, and the price of methanol futures decreased [39]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials of urea remained stable, and the estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry remained unchanged [40]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in different regions changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [40]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased by 3.44%, while the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [40]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [42]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol increased [42]. - **Methanol Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of upstream domestic enterprises and overseas exchanges decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - **Product Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [45]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [45]. - **Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [45]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 17, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts of refined oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].

乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂叠加美联储降息预期，国际油价应声上涨。地缘冲突与金融政策共振，改写传统能源安全逻辑，软实力博弈正重塑全球石油 定价体系。邓正红软实力表示，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并且市场预计美联储本周降息，地缘溢价叠加降息预期给石油软实力注入向上势能，周一 （9月15日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.61美元至63.30美元，涨幅0.97%；伦敦洲际交易 所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.45美元至67.44美元，涨幅0.67%。美国总统特朗普表示，如果北约国家停止购买俄罗斯石油，他就准备对俄罗斯实施 制裁。俄罗斯官员周日表示，乌克兰发动大规模袭击，至少出动361架无人机瞄准俄罗斯，在西北部巨大的基里希炼油厂引发短暂火灾。 上周国际原油期货涨超1%，因乌克兰加大了对俄罗斯石油基础设施的袭击，包括最大的石油出口终端普里莫尔斯克。普里莫尔斯克的原油装载能力约为每 日100万桶，而基里希炼油厂每日加工约35.5万桶俄罗斯原油，相当于该国总量的6.4%。分析认为，普里莫尔斯克遇袭表明扰乱国际石油市场的意愿日益增 强，这可能给油价带来上行压力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

"北约国家必须立刻停止买俄罗斯石油，还要对中国加征50%到100%的关税——这样才能结束战争！"近期，美国总统特朗普在自创社交 平台上发布的"致全世界的信"，再次将国际舆论推向风口浪尖。这个充满火药味的帖文，不仅延续了他一贯强硬的"交易艺术"风格，更 将矛头直指中国，试图以"关税大棒"逼迫盟友站队，却意外暴露了美国霸权在全球舞台上的裂痕。 特朗普的涉华言论并非孤立事件。之前他在福克斯新闻采访中坦言，俄乌冲突是他"唯一没能搞定"的外交难题。这位曾自诩"擅长与普京 打交道"的总统，如今却陷入了尴尬：谈判桌上拿不出具体方案，只能在战场外制造声势。他嘴上喊着对俄"强硬"，却又称局势是"一个 巴掌拍不响"，暗示泽连斯基与普京都有责任；转头便将矛头转向中国，声称"只要北约对中国加征高额关税，就能利用中国对俄罗斯的 影响力结束战争"。 这种看似"神逻辑"的关联，实则暴露了特朗普的策略本质：将国内"交易思维"复制到国际政治，试图用经济施压代替外交智慧。在他的 认知里，全球经济是一张可以随意涂写的画布，关税是"画笔"，制裁是"颜料"，只要盟友跟着美国"统一行动"，就能逼迫俄罗斯回到谈 判桌。然而，现实是：中国与俄罗斯的关系建立 ...