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公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.05.26-2025.05.30):存量博弈加剧,景气板块扩散-20250603
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-06-03 09:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the A - share market first rose on high volume due to the easing of Sino - US trade negotiations and then entered a volatile adjustment. The sector rotation speed has accelerated recently, and the volatile market pattern remains unchanged [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise last week, driven by multiple favorable events. However, the market heat may have reached a phased high, and the phased market of innovation drugs may end once the strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from the prosperity of leading stocks to a beta market, and has now entered the marginal spread stage, but its sustainability is uncertain [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage where layout directions can be explored, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume as a proportion of the total A - share trading volume has fallen to a relatively low level [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - The A - share market first rose on high volume and then oscillated last week. The WanDe All - A Index fell 0.02% for the whole week. The environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [11]. - As of May 30, the trading volume proportions of the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indexes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 19.59% and 33.26% respectively, both at 5 - year peak levels. Since 2020, the trading volume proportion of the CSI 2000 index has risen from less than 15% to over 30%, while that of the CSI 300 index has dropped from nearly 50% to less than 20%. The A - share market is a stock and shrinking market, and market participants are engaging in a stock game in small - and medium - cap stocks [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise, driven by the approval of 11 innovative drugs from 8 Chinese companies on May 29 and important clinical data disclosed at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting from May 30 - June 3. However, the market heat may have reached a peak, and the phased market may end if strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from leading stocks to various directions such as new - listed Hong Kong - listed tea drinks, A - share pet and beauty care sectors. The market focus has shifted from pet food to non - liquor products, and the market has entered the marginal spread stage with uncertain sustainability [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage for layout, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume proportion has declined. Upcoming industrial events in June may act as catalysts [14]. 3.1.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company optimized the compilation plan of the SSE 380 Index and launched the SSE 580 Index, forming a flagship broad - based index system of "SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, and SSE 580". The index system covers 50% of the number of Shanghai - listed securities and nearly 90% of the market value [15]. - The SSE index system has established an "integrated two - wing" index brand of "flagship broad - based + science and technology innovation + dividend", which is an important part of promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market [16]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Year - to - Date | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.12% | 1.45% | 4.59% | 5.44% | | Value Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.15% | 2.80% | 1.42% | 1.50% | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | 2.51% | 2.06% | - 0.17% | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | 0.94% | 9.74% | - 0.13% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | 3.78% | 6.65% | 23.08% | 6.62% | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.93% | 3.15% | 7.37% | 0.46% | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | - 0.44% | 2.05% | 3.65% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.30% | - 0.95% | - 4.28% | - 8.90% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.81% | 3.01% | 4.22% | - 3.14% | [17] 3.2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred - The portfolio selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. Core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index [18]. 3.2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred - The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification [20]. 3.2.3 Balanced Stock Fund Preferred - Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth, and switch to stocks with higher cost - performance. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [21]. 3.2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred - The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunity of performance and valuation during a company's high - growth stage. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [24]. 3.2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index [24]. 3.2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumption industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [29]. 3.2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Electronics, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [30]. 3.2.8 High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Construction, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [34]. 3.2.9 Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Petroleum & Petrochemical, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index [36].
A股僵局下的生存法则:看懂主力套路,别当行情里的“睁眼瞎”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 05:32
各位朋友好,我是帮主郑重。最近不少朋友跟我抱怨,说A股就像一潭死水,大部分板块每天都是"心电图"走势,买啥啥不动,卖啥啥起飞,简直让人抓心 挠肝。其实啊,这恰恰说明市场进入了典型的"存量博弈"阶段——场内资金在互相博弈,场外增量资金观望不前,这种时候要是还闷头乱冲,大概率要栽跟 头。 先给大家泼盆冷水:在没有大量新增资金入场的情况下,未来很长一段时间都会是结构性行情。啥意思?就是说,市场很难出现全面普涨,只有某个板块突 然被政策利好砸中,或者有主力资金悄悄布局,才会走出局部行情。比如前阵子AI算力突然爆发,固态电池概念旱地拔葱,背后都是主力资金在"点火"。这 时候如果你还抱着"躺平式炒股"的心态,盯着大盘指数等普涨,大概率会错过机会,甚至被诱多陷阱套住。 那怎么在这种僵局里找到机会?关键就三句话:看懂市场状态,看透主力意图,想清自己节奏。 先说看懂市场状态。现在的盘面就像一场"猫鼠游戏",主力资金就像鳄鱼一样潜伏在水草里,平时不动声色,一旦发现猎物(比如政策风口、行业拐点), 就会突然发动攻击。这时候你得学会看"水位"——也就是成交量和资金流向。如果某个板块连续几天温和放量,股价却没怎么涨,那可能是主力在悄悄 ...
一季度净利润同比增超236% 九号公司董事长高禄峰:靠的不是“一击制胜”的技巧
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-17 06:37
Core Insights - The company announced that its smart two-wheeled electric vehicle shipments in the Chinese market have surpassed 7 million units, achieving a significant increase from 6 million units in just two months [1][3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.52%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 456 million yuan, up 236.22% year-on-year [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 1.0038 million electric two-wheelers in Q1, generating revenue of 286.2 million yuan; retail sales of self-branded scooters reached 206,700 units with revenue of 39.5 million yuan; and all-terrain vehicle sales were 4,822 units with revenue of 21.5 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s R&D investment increased by 54.14% year-on-year, indicating a strong focus on innovation [10] - The company’s robot business generated revenue of 895 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 254.76% [10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The electric vehicle industry is shifting from incremental competition to stock competition, with brands innovating to capture greater market share [5][6] - The company’s product matrix, which includes electric two-wheelers, scooters, and robots, has contributed to its revenue growth through synergistic effects [9][10] - The company plans to expand its store count beyond 7,800 this year, indicating a strategy for increased market penetration [8] Group 3: Strategic Vision - The company aims to serve 1 billion people globally with innovative short-distance transportation and robotic products, highlighting its ambition in a market with strong demand [14] - The company has established a strategic development plan, with Q1 performance being a result of strategies formulated in 2023 [4][14] - The company has proactively set up production in Vietnam to mitigate potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, demonstrating strategic foresight in global operations [12]
五粮液业绩会:普五控货后电商销售额增长21%;已摆脱千元价格带竞品纠缠
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 10:10
Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye held an online performance briefing for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, focusing on dividend distribution, stock buyback, product competition, and sales performance, as well as revenue targets and strategic layout for the year [4][5][17]. Dividend and Share Buyback - Wuliangye plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares in 2024, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, with a total dividend amount reaching 22.3 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 70%, the highest since its listing [5][17]. - The company has distributed dividends 24 times, with a total amount of 116.4 billion yuan, which is 31 times the funds raised since its listing [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.922 billion yuan, a decline of 6.17% year-on-year, marking the first drop since 2013, attributed to increased market expenses and incentives for distributors and consumers [8][10]. - For Q1 2025, Wuliangye reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.849 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2970.31% year-on-year, and contract liabilities reached 10.17 billion yuan, up 101.42% [10][17]. Product Competition and Sales - Wuliangye's eighth-generation product saw a 21% year-on-year increase in sales on e-commerce platforms like JD and Tmall, establishing a price stability advantage in the 1,000 yuan price range [4][11][13]. - The company has implemented a controlled pricing strategy for its eighth-generation product, resulting in sustained market price increases and low social inventory [13][14]. Strategic Outlook - Wuliangye aims to achieve its 100 billion yuan target for the 14th Five-Year Plan by adapting to market changes and focusing on sustainable growth [15][16]. - The company plans to expand its market share among younger consumers by introducing products with lower alcohol content and modern packaging [18]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on developing mid-tier products and enhancing its brand matrix to capture market demand effectively [19].
大通小兑:电商平台发展史与未来趋势分析(四)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 04:15
拼多多:换道超车,渠道下沉 共享以共享单车的问世,掀起一股共享的风,以摩拜、OFO小黄色为代表的赤橙黄绿青蓝紫,主要是颜色不够用,可把传统的 单车生产商高兴坏了,不停的扩大产能,同时没有得到订单的企业也是倒声一片。摩的师傅都看不惯了,城管更是看清楚路数 之后,发布禁令与严管。最后以美团入资摩拜进入了单车市场,OFO倒闭?还有滴滴收购的小蓝车 单车之后的充电宝,共享雨伞,共享……等等 流量瓶颈 2015年4月,拼多多上线,创始人黄峥一顿神操作,在一片骂声中成长。砍一刀传遍所有的微信群与朋友圈。在农村地区,只 知有拼多多,不知道有淘宝是一个正常现象。不得不佩服眼光独道。 可以说是在一片夹缝中成长起来。开辟了广阔的天地。可以说刚好承接了C店出走的卖家群体,同时做大其他电商平台无法覆 盖的领域,这也适应了微商时代的流量红利。2018年6月30日,拼多多连续12个月成交总额达到2621 亿,年度活跃买家3.44亿 人,平均每个人在拼多多一年要花762元。但头部企业对政策的影响越来越大,规范经营,留给拼多多的转型压力与空间已经 不多了。2021年收报亏损71.8亿。 滴滴、快的,留两个是生态,留一个是标耙 千团大战之后马 ...
苹果在中国营收再下滑27亿,但库克嘴很硬:已有所改善了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 04:31
Core Insights - Xiaomi and Huawei are the top two smartphone brands in China's market, while Apple has dropped to fifth place with an approximate 8% decline in sales [1][2] - Apple's revenue in Greater China has decreased by 2.26% year-on-year, amounting to a loss of approximately $370 million [5][7] - The overall smartphone market in China is experiencing growth, particularly for domestic brands like Xiaomi and Huawei, which have seen significant increases in sales [9][11] Market Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi shipped 13.3 million units, capturing 19% market share, while Huawei shipped 13.0 million units with an 18% share [2] - Apple's shipments fell to 9.2 million units, representing a 13% market share, down from 15% in the previous year [2] - The total smartphone market in China saw a shipment of 70.9 million units in Q1 2025, up from 67.7 million units in Q1 2024 [2] Revenue Analysis - Apple's total revenue for Q1 2025 was $95.359 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising to $24.780 billion [3] - Revenue from the Greater China region was $16.002 billion, down from $16.372 billion in the same quarter last year [5] - Other regions, including the Americas, Europe, Japan, and Asia Pacific, reported revenue growth, contrasting with the decline in China [3] Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi's flagship models have been performing well, directly competing with Apple's offerings [9] - Huawei has been focusing on the high-end market with its Mate and Pura series, as well as foldable phones, further intensifying competition against Apple [9] - The domestic subsidy policies favor local brands like Xiaomi and Huawei, making it challenging for Apple to maintain its market position [11]
饥渴的大厂,面对大模型还需新招
3 6 Ke· 2025-04-30 04:11
Core Insights - The competition among large models has entered a phase of "stock game," focusing on cost, data quality, and scene penetration rather than just parameter size [2][6] - Companies are now prioritizing reducing computational costs while maintaining performance, with various strategies being employed to achieve this [3][4][10] Cost Efficiency - Alibaba's Qwen3 has reduced deployment costs to one-third to one-fourth of DeepSeek-R1 by using "mixed reasoning" technology [2] - Tencent's Mix Yuan T1 has improved computational efficiency by over 30% through sparse activation mechanisms [3] - The focus is on lowering costs without sacrificing performance, indicating a shift from sheer parameter quantity to cost efficiency [4][10] Data Quality - Data quality is evolving from breadth to depth, emphasizing not just the volume of data but also its precision and relevance [5] - Qwen3's training data amounts to 36 trillion tokens, supporting 119 languages, showcasing its broad applicability [4] - Companies like Baidu and Tencent leverage vast user behavior data to enhance their models' effectiveness in real-world applications [4][5] Scene Penetration - Scene penetration is transitioning from "technology stacking" to "value creation," where companies must demonstrate their ability to solve real-world problems [5][14] - Qwen3 focuses on vertical industries like e-commerce and finance, while Baidu integrates its model into various products to create a closed loop of technology, scene, and users [5][14] - The integration of AI into existing business processes is crucial for companies to differentiate themselves in the market [15][18] Technical Optimization - The current trend shows a shift from expanding model size to optimizing activation efficiency, indicating a new competitive metric [7][10] - Companies are adopting mixed reasoning and sparse activation mechanisms to extend the lifecycle of existing architectures, rather than achieving groundbreaking innovations [9][10] - The reliance on parameter scale and sparse activation may lead to a "technical illusion," where companies believe they have solved cost issues without addressing deeper limitations [13][14] Future Directions - The introduction of the MCP protocol is seen as a key factor in redefining how enterprises collaborate with AI, shifting focus from model-centric to data-centric approaches [15][17] - MCP facilitates the integration of disparate systems within companies, transforming AI from a mere tool to a foundational infrastructure for productivity [17][18] - The future may see the emergence of new platforms that integrate various business processes, driven by the capabilities of large models and AI [18][19]
心里那个恨
猫笔刀· 2024-06-07 14:13
但这个消息对微盘股是有利的,a股一向有着明显的跷跷板效应,小票涨的太好就会虹吸大票的资金, 大票涨的好就会虹吸小票的资金,真就是全家只有一条裤子,我穿你没,你穿我没。权重股遭遇暴击, 正好方便一些资金出逃,去微盘股那边抄底。 这背后的核心原因还是a股常年亏钱效应,恶名在外,已经很难再吸引新的韭菜进场,没有增量资金可 不就是残酷的存量博弈。 今天我设局让你接我的盘,明天你偷偷掏我裤兜里的铜板,整个赌场的风气就是又卷又鸡贼,短短半年 时间已经炒了二十几个概念,但大部分都持续不到一星期。别说韭菜们在骂娘,其实镰刀们也觉得很难 受。 我从前几年就经历了沮丧到失望,再到心灰意冷,逐渐减配a股,转投别的领域。我救不了a股,我只能 先救救我自己。 我这几年 靠着点运气, 确实在 境外赚了一些钱, 所以更深刻的理解了 选择大于努 力 。 你们如果看了我这两年大部分的文章,就应该能很明显的感受到我调仓后的心境变化。 今天小微盘股终于喘了一口气,整体反弹了4.8%,差不多覆盖了昨天的损失。这一切在昨晚就有所预 兆,一来纯技术面有超跌反弹的需求,二来证监会迫于压力专门出来安抚市场,4月中旬那次也是监管 层安抚完就涨了。 还有第三个 ...