1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Shock" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading, and broad - money became the main trading theme in the market. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield curve first steepened and then flattened. Looking ahead to next week, with limited incremental market information, the bond market is expected to continue trading on broad - money - related logic, and treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate on the stronger side [12]. - Market negatives for the bond market are relatively limited, and there are reasons to bet on broad - money policies. The impact of negative factors on the bond market is decreasing. The central bank's resumption of open - market treasury bond trading is a definite positive, and it is expected to announce relevant information in November. Additionally, the weaker - than - expected October PMI and the Fed's interest - rate cuts will increase market expectations for broad - money policies such as interest - rate cuts [13]. - The news of bond purchases is beneficial for short - term bonds, but the yield curve may not continue to steepen. Although the central bank's bond purchases are likely to target short - term bonds, the positive impact on short - term bonds this round should be weaker than last year. Long - term bonds have greater potential for price increases [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From October 27 to November 2, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. By the close on October 31, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.544, 106.065, 108.665, and 116.640 yuan respectively, up 0.021, 0.450, 0.650, and 1.610 yuan from the previous weekend [11]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to continue trading on broad - money - related logic, and treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate on the stronger side. The negatives for the bond market are decreasing, and the central bank's resumption of open - market treasury bond trading is a positive. The yield curve may not continue to steepen [12][13]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, a total of 110 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 412.682 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 319.992 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. By the close on October 31, the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields were 1.40%, 1.57%, 1.79%, and 2.15% respectively, down 9.23, 5.44, 5.12, and 6.60 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads widened, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed [26]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. By the close on October 31, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.544, 106.065, 108.665, and 116.640 yuan respectively, up 0.021, 0.450, 0.650, and 1.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity treasury bond futures contracts changed to varying degrees [35][38]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the treasury bond market strengthened. The IRR of futures rose significantly at times, but the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage did not last long. Looking ahead to next week, the basis is expected to narrow slightly [41]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - By the close on October 31, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were + 0.046, + 0.075, + 0.260, and + 0.290 yuan respectively, down 0.034, 0.040, 0.070, and unchanged from the previous weekend. The inter - delivery spreads are expected to narrow, but the narrowing space is limited [47][48]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 206.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market, with a net injection of 90.08 billion yuan. As of the close on October 31, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.49%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, up 2.74, 4.41, 0.10, and 2.50 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchases decreased [53][55][57]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of the close on October 31, the US dollar index rose 0.80% to 99.7308, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, up 9 basis points from the previous week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 231.6 basis points. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction in December, which was in line with market expectations. Powell's statement led to a downward revision of market expectations for Fed interest - rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and US Treasury yields to rise [59][60]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. As of the close on October 31, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3556.67, 6485.90, and 1590.82 points respectively, down 5.58, up 46.71, and down 15.63 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices all rose. As of the close on October 31, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.80, 5.69, and 7.04 yuan per kilogram respectively, up 0.07, 0.32, and 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous weekend [63]. 3.7 Investment Suggestions - The bond market risk is low in the near term, and it is expected to fluctuate on the slightly stronger side, but the upside space is limited. When going long, one needs to grasp the rhythm and consider the odds [64].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market in China is relatively high. Short - and medium - term bond yields have declined significantly due to rumors of large banks buying new bonds issued this year within three years, while long - term bonds have performed weakly. The central bank has been supportive, and the inter - bank market liquidity has loosened. There is still room for market speculation on loose monetary policy, providing short - term support for the bond market [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The inter - bank bond market sentiment is high, short - and medium - term bonds are in high demand with falling yields, long - term bonds are weak, most Treasury bond futures contracts have risen, and the central bank has increased market liquidity. The market is still speculating on loose monetary policy, which supports the short - term bond market [2]. - **Funding**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 419.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts is negative, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract is positive, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts is 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the TS and TF main contracts have increased, while the net long positions of the T main contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectations**: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for eight consecutive months. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI has been rising year - on - year [5]. - **Contract Quotes**: The T2512.CFE contract price is 108.570, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 91,358 and an open interest of 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The TF2512.CFE contract price is 106.070, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 99,318 and an open interest of 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The TS2512.CFE contract price is 102.576, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 56,118 and an open interest of 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The TL2512.CFE contract price is 115.83, down 0.27%, with a trading volume of 125,436 and an open interest of 146,041, a decrease of 1,892 [8]. 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate and the maturity yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year terms, as well as the term spreads between 10Y - 2Y and 5Y - 2Y, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [9][13]. 3.3. Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [16][17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.25%, the 10-year main contract down 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.8430% and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 2.2115% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 168 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit institutions remained stable around 1.32%, while non-bank institutions reported borrowing rates in the range of 1.43%-1.45% [2] - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding funding stability, despite potential short-term liquidity tightening due to tax periods and month-end factors [2] Policy Developments - The 2025 Financial Street Forum opened with significant statements from key financial leaders, including the central bank governor, who emphasized a supportive monetary policy stance and the resumption of government bond trading operations [3] - The central bank is exploring measures to support personal credit recovery and is working on a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent signals from the Financial Street Forum suggest a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a potential increase in bond market sentiment [4] - The 10 and 30-year government bonds may experience a decline of 4-5 basis points, with expectations for the T2512 contract to potentially break resistance levels [4] - A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while attention should also be given to positive spread strategies due to rising internal rates of return [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's M2 declined in September and was lower than expected, mainly due to a short - term sharp decrease in non - bank deposits. The overall M2 remained at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. The new social financing decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in fiscal financing and the decrease in the financing demand of the household and enterprise sectors. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. Given the existing external shock risks and the stable domestic economic growth, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With fiscal efforts and the easing of external shocks, the financing demand of enterprises, households, and the government is expected to gradually recover, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to accelerate. In the short term, financial data has little impact on domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate, while in the long - term, the process of loose credit is expected to speed up as domestic support policies are implemented and take effect [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content M2 Situation - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with an expected 8.5% and a previous value of 8.8%. The growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and increased by 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 declined and was lower than expected because of the large increase in enterprise and household deposits and the significant decrease in non - bank deposits due to the return of wealth management funds to the balance sheet. The overall money supply maintained reasonable growth. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and higher than the expected 6.1%, reflecting the improvement of enterprise profits and the continuous current - account of household and enterprise deposits. M0 increased by 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2%. With M1 rising and M2 remaining high, the overall capital supply remained stable, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. Due to the stable domestic economic growth and existing external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal and real - estate policies, and the short - term improvement of the real - estate market, the demand for credit creation will pick up, and M2 is expected to rise in the short term [1][2]. New RMB Loans - In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, with an expected 1460 billion yuan and a previous value of 59 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new loans in September were less than the same period last year and lower than market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bill financing and household loans. New household short - term loans were 14.21 billion yuan, 12.79 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and new household long - term loans were 25 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The decline in household loans may reflect the weak income expectations of households. The long - term loans were moderately boosted by the optimized real - estate demand policies in first - tier cities. New enterprise loans were 122 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Short - term and long - term loans were 71 billion and 91 billion yuan respectively, with short - term loans increasing by 25 billion yuan and long - term loans decreasing by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, partly affected by local governments' repayment of enterprise arrears. The new bill financing was - 40.26 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills increased year - on - year, possibly reflecting the decline in banks' bill - padding demand at the end of the quarter [1][3][4]. Social Financing Scale - In September, the increment of the social financing scale was 353.37 billion yuan, with an expected 335 billion yuan and a previous value of 256.68 billion yuan, 22.98 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of the social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. In terms of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, with household credit demand picking up and enterprise credit decreasing. Enterprise bond financing increased, government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and non - standard financing demand rose. New credit in September was 160.8 billion yuan, 36.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in the bill financing demand of households and real - economy enterprises. Non - standard assets such as trust loans, entrusted loans, and bank acceptances not yet discounted increased by 35.79 billion yuan in total, 18.69 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise bond financing increased by 1.05 billion yuan, 20.31 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly supported by the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds. Government bond net financing was 118.86 billion yuan, 34.71 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the large - scale issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. Overall, the financing demand of the real - economy sector decreased year - on - year. In the short - and medium - term, due to the negative impact of tariffs, the government will continue to expand financing. The enterprise sector's financing demand is expected to improve gradually in the long - term, and the household sector's financing demand is expected to continue the slow recovery trend. Although the current social financing demand has declined slightly year - on - year in the short term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the long - term as the domestic monetary policy continues to be loose and support policies are further strengthened and implemented [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The global political rightward shift, along with trends of expansive fiscal and monetary policies, indicates increased uncertainty from geopolitical friction and greater unsustainability of global government debt, raising the probability of the economy moving from a soft landing to moderate overheating [1] Market Strategy - Short-term risk appetite for US stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing policies and dual expansionary fiscal and monetary measures is likely to lead to geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakened fiat currency credit, with expected asset performance ranking as gold > copper > stocks [1] Major Events Impacting Markets - The US government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan are the two main events driving market sentiment [2] - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, is expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices, with both assets reaching historical highs [2][3] Economic Data - The US ADP employment data showed a negative growth of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, indicating weakness in the labor market [5] - The ISM manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50, reflecting mixed signals in the US economy [5] Political Developments in the US - The US federal government entered a shutdown due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill, primarily over disagreements on healthcare spending, with potential economic impacts being limited based on historical precedents [6][7] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [7] Political Developments in Japan - Kishi Nobuo's election as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to a continuation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike process [8][9] - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a commitment to "more responsible" fiscal expansion, with a focus on coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan [9]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - During the National Day holiday, there were two major trading themes in global assets: the US government shutdown and the victory of Sanae Takaichi as the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The global risk appetite is expected to rise driven by liquidity. Japanese stock indices and gold led the gains, while long - term bond yields in major countries such as the US and Japan increased due to concerns about loose fiscal policies and debt sustainability [1][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Holiday News Summary and Thoughts - **US Government Shutdown**: On the evening of September 30, the US Senate failed to pass the annual appropriation bill, leading to a government shutdown. The core reason is the disagreement between the two parties on medical insurance welfare spending. The shutdown may delay important economic data releases and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The market's concern about the unsustainability of US government debt has increased [11][12]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory**: On October 4, Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Her victory implies a high probability of becoming Japan's prime minister. Her policy style is expected to continue "Abenomics", with a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a strong Japanese stock market, a weak Japanese bond market, and a weak yen. The market's expectation of a Japanese interest - rate hike in October has been postponed [12][13]. - **Gold Price Increase**: During the National Day holiday, the COMEX gold price rose 2.49% in three trading days. The rise is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold purchases. The US government shutdown further boosted gold's safe - haven demand [14]. 2. Global Asset Class Performance - **Equity Assets**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 6), equity asset prices generally rose, with Japanese stock indices performing outstandingly. In the domestic market, A - shares were on holiday, and Hong Kong stocks rose first and then fell. Overseas, most global stock indices rose after the Fed's September interest - rate cut. Sanae Takaichi's victory pushed up the Japanese stock market [15][19]. - **Commodity Market**: The US government shutdown drove up the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Gold, silver, and copper prices rose significantly, while crude oil prices generally fell [19]. - **Bond Market**: Affected by the US government shutdown and concerns about the sustainability of loose fiscal policies, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields first decreased and then increased, with a net increase of 2.0BP. Japanese bonds showed a steepening trend, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields rising 1.5BP. Italian and German 10 - year Treasury bond yields also increased [20]. 3. Overseas News Summary - **US Government Shutdown and Data Delays**: Key economic data were postponed due to the government shutdown. The new ADP employment was negative, but the decline slowed down. The US 9 - month manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, but the contraction speed slowed down, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose significantly [27][30]. - **US 9 - month ISM Manufacturing PMI**: The 9 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a slight increase from the previous month. Except for output, supplier delivery, and prices, other sub - items were in the contraction range. The output item had the largest month - on - month increase, while new export orders had the largest decline [32]. - **Eurozone Inflation**: In September, the Eurozone CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month. The PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [36]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory and BOJ Expectations**: Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, and the market's expectation of a BOJ interest - rate hike in October was postponed [39]. 4. Domestic News Summary - **Travel**: During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional population flow and private travel volume increased compared with the same period last year. Domestic and international flight operations also increased, especially international flights [44][45]. - **Movies**: During the National Day holiday, the number of moviegoers and box office revenue were close to those of 2024 but far lower than those of 2019. The number of movie screenings was significantly higher than that of 2019 [51]. - **City Subways**: The subway ridership in most first - tier cities decreased during the National Day holiday [51]. - **Catering**: Catering consumption was booming during the National Day holiday. The order volume of "Must - eat List" restaurants increased significantly, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased year - on - year [58]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions decreased compared with 2024, while Beijing's real estate market was active during the National Day holiday. The real - estate market's "stabilization" still needs further confirmation [58][61].

Group 1: Government Bond Trading and Monetary Policy - The expectation for government bond trading is heating up, while the reality is cooling down, with liquidity management remaining a key focus [1] - If interest rate cuts occur, the extent of the cuts will significantly impact the bond market, with a likely continuation of a 10 basis point reduction seen in the first half of the year [1] - The central bank's potential reintroduction of government bond trading tools is expected to enhance banks' asset-liability management stability [5] Group 2: Innovation in Pharmaceutical Industry - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning towards global commercialization, with a strong pipeline of quality projects driving industry growth [8] - Early drug development in China is significantly faster than the global average, saving 30%-50% of time from target validation to product commercialization [8] - Future innovation will further unlock commercial value, with academic and industrial collaborations playing a crucial role in successful drug development [8] Group 3: Dairy and Meat Industry Trends - The dairy sector is experiencing a strong supply contraction, with demand expected to rise due to seasonal consumption and supportive policies [11] - The meat industry is at a super cycle turning point, with reduced import volumes anticipated due to narrowing price differentials [11] - The interconnection between dairy and meat sectors is expected to enhance profitability for livestock companies [11] Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - A company reported a 44.50% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by demand in the smart connected vehicle and edge AI hardware sectors [14] - Another company achieved a 13.55% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with a significant market share in the global SSD controller market [16] - A third company reported a 11.02% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with ongoing acquisitions to expand its product offerings [22]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the anticipation surrounding the resumption of government bond trading, highlighting a shift from "buying long" to "buying short" under supportive monetary policy, with a focus on liquidity management [2][4][27] - It is expected that if interest rate cuts occur, the impact on the bond market will depend on the magnitude of the cuts, with a likely continuation of a 10 basis point reduction seen in the first half of the year [2][28][29] - The report emphasizes that regardless of whether bond trading resumes, liquidity concerns are manageable due to the central bank's diverse monetary policy tools [27][28][29] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning towards global commercialization, with a strong pipeline of quality projects expected to drive growth [6][9] - The report notes that the early drug development process in China is significantly faster than the global average, saving 30%-50% of time [9] - Future prospects for the industry are optimistic, with increased innovation expected to unlock greater commercial value [9] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The dairy sector is experiencing a strong supply contraction, with expectations that the phase of destocking is nearing its end [10] - The meat cattle sector is entering a super cycle, with domestic supply tightening due to reduced imports and a long replenishment cycle [10] - The report suggests that the interconnection between dairy and meat cattle sectors will enhance profitability for related enterprises [10] Group 4: Technology Sector - The report highlights the rapid growth of Meige Intelligent, driven by demand in the smart connected vehicle and edge AI hardware markets, with a 44.50% increase in revenue year-on-year [32] - The company is expanding its applications in various sectors, including drones, AR glasses, and robotics, showcasing its strong capabilities in edge AI [34][35] - Despite a decline in overall gross margin, the company anticipates improvements in profitability in the latter half of the year [33][36] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and new consumption, which are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and improving economic conditions [11] - Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat, and Fucheng Co., which are positioned well within the agricultural sector [10]