Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% with a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% with a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.19 with a growth rate of 0.19%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0390, up 0.001 with a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.07%; DR007 is 1.44, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.45%; R007 is 1.51, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.63, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.14 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.084 yuan, - 0.076 yuan, - 0.053 yuan, and - 0.228 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2]. - In November, the overall financial data was weak. The credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans. The medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, and the loans increased significantly less year - on - year. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 46.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.275%, 1.428%, 1.471%, and 1.541% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific data summary provided in the text, only mentions various spread trend charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [37][38][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][69]. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

华安基金认为，展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周期，若鸽派主席任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进， 有望利好黄金。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付息压力下的信用风险延续，全球央行 持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好黄金中长期配置价值。 黄金股午后上扬，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)涨3.83%，报31.46港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.48%，报 3.49港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.9%，报18.08港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨2.73%，报33.94港元。 消息面上，12月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，但联储内部对于后续降息节奏的分歧较大，本次利率决 议共有三个反对票，联储理事米兰认为应降息50bp，两位地方联储主席主张不降息。大摩最新研究报告 指出，预计降息将持续，美元指数将重新走弱。大摩认为，黄金有望继续获得宏观层面的支持，到2026 年第四季度金价或将达到每盎司4,800美元。 ...

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社 ...

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 配置在左，交易在右 [Table_Summary] 12 月 8-12 日，债市看似启动修复行情，实则做多的根基尚不稳 定，长端利率周内演绎大幅的 V型反转行情。 ► 重要会议相继落地，政策重心逐渐明朗 政策定调上，政治局会议强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"， 在逆周期调节稳增长的同时，也更加关注中长期，注重稳增长与防风 险等中长期问题的平衡。此外，中央经济工作会议通稿，也对政治局 会议提出的各项表述予以更详细的说明，市场前期的各类预期也一一 得到证实或证伪。 ►长端利率大开大合，或源于两点疑惑 政策端靴子落地后，债市的平静被打破，利率波动又一次放大。 长端利率大开大合的背后，是对两个问题的纠结，一是 2026 年货币是 否会加力？二是财政的力度究竟如何？ 货币端，债市的担忧主要来源于政策前缀表述。中央经济工作会 议指出，2026 年要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，从市 场理解来看，这一表述相比 2025 年常见的"择机降准降息"、"适时降 准降息"，或是更中性的表述，意味着降准降息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-12 美联储降息25bp, 国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

例如，我们可用SHIBOR利率表征银行体系平均负债成本，这一指标也能反映央行货币政策力度。往年宽松周期中，货币政策力度较大，SHIBOR相对十年 国债收益率的下行幅度更大，且持续性更强；但今年这两条曲线走势高度纠结，甚至在年初出现倒挂。若具体观察银行负债相关的其他指标，包括银行短期 资金成本与中长期借贷成本，便会发现，今年整体资金利率始终维持在稳定区间。可见央行始终保持适度宽松，无意引导债市形成单边走势。因此，今年债 市缺乏明确方向指引，全年呈偏弱震荡态势。 在经济动能偏弱的背景下，投资者也会思考：能否预期下一次降息？首先，央行政策空间确实已打开，但从政策导向来看，尚未出现强力刺激信号。为推动 经济增长、维护金融体系稳定，央行在理论上确实存在降息空间，但降息节奏未必在今年。一方面，今年5%的GDP增长目标压力不大，较易实现；另一方 面，明年是"十五五"规划开局之年，若要维持稳定增长、实现"开门红"，今年剩余时间无需过度抬高经济基数。从定量角度看，参考国信证券分析，自行构 建了衡量货币政策力度的类似指数，结果显示，今年货币政策力度并未呈现出较强态势，至少弱于去年。 最后，观察市场表现：当前宏观经济环境对债市有利 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中粮期货研究中心 摘要 本次中央经济工作会议，出现了五个"必须"，存量与增量集成效应，跨周期调节，投资止跌回稳等新的 内容。财政积极中相对去年略微向稳健倾斜，货币维持宽松，降准降息再度被明确提及。深化改革的重 要性有所抬升，但取得"十五五"开门红同样重要。所以三驾马车中刺激内需作为首要任务，投资与出口 不能构成拖累。地产相关的重点领域，可能以防风险的防御为主。经历了今年商品实际运行状态，"物 价合理回升"并不一定指向境内供需定价的商品价格需要大幅上涨。这类商品价格能否结束承压转向牛 市上涨，需要密切关注财政对消费的提振力度，以及居民收入的改善。 一、五个"必须" "必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须 坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。" 五个必须，头位对应扩大内需与寻找科技破局带来新的增长曲线。后四位更多侧重于稳增长与深化改革 之间的平衡。"苦练内功"，笔者认为是这一段比较精炼的总结。 | 会议年份 来年赤字率 | | 财政基调 | 实际运行 | | --- ...