Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that increasing the allocation of gold in investment portfolios is becoming an inevitable choice for institutional investors, especially given the significant rise in gold prices this year, which have increased by up to 60%, outperforming major indices like the Nasdaq and Hang Seng [5][6]. Group 1 - Gold has demonstrated a unique investment logic this year, moving beyond traditional pricing mechanisms based on "safe-haven" and "anti-inflation" narratives [6]. - Historical context shows that gold prices surged around 2010 due to inflation and asset bubbles driven by China's stimulus measures, leading to increased domestic demand for gold [6]. - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is highlighted, noting that low US interest rates at the time allowed for profitable arbitrage opportunities involving gold imports and domestic lending [6].

美联储在北京时间9月18日凌晨做出的降息决定，是一场被市场充分预演了的"大戏"。联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25?.5%下调至4.0?.25%。美联储主席鲍威尔 在会后坦言，这是一次"风险管理型"降息，他们的注意力"全部集中在就业市场上"。 这意味着，美国货币政策的重心正在从过去两年猛踩刹车的"抗通胀"，转向谨慎地轻点油门的"防衰退"。 消息落地后，全球市场的反应并不是一片欢腾，反而有点"利好出尽是利空"的味道。美股三大指数涨跌互现，道指微涨，纳指却小幅收跌。美元指数玩了个 先跌后涨，国际金价也冲高回落。 这种波动恰恰暴露了市场的分歧：投资者一方面欢迎降息带来的流动性，另一方面又担忧鲍威尔"无需迅速调整利率"的谨慎表态，是否意味着未来的降息步 伐会非常缓慢。 对于中国而言，这场来自外部的变化，机遇远大于挑战。最立竿见影的效果体现在汇率上。美联储降息缩小了中美之间的利差，人民币对美元的贬值压力显 著减轻。 在降息前夕，离岸人民币兑美元汇率就已升破7.1关口，创下去年11月以来的新高。人民币企稳升值，相当于给中国的进口企业发了个"成本下降"红包，特 别是能源、原材料进口企业的利润空间会得到改善。 中国人民银行的货币 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, trading around 98.938, while gold prices rose to 4207.65 USD/oz, with a peak of 4218.70 USD/oz and a low of 4195.31 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.26% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate decision on December 10, with a consensus predicting a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [2] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve members regarding priorities, with 85% of surveyed economists anticipating a focus on easing credit due to concerns over a weak labor market [2] Group 2 - A survey indicated that only one participant believes all 12 voting members will support the decision unanimously, with 60% expecting two dissenting votes and one-third predicting three or more [3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates and increased layoffs, despite a surprising job increase in September [3] - Technical analysis of gold indicates a converging triangle pattern, with key resistance at 4230 and support levels at 4175, 4165, and the critical 4155-4150 range [4]

数据显示，今年以来，沪铜期货市场内的资金总量增加了惊人的284亿元，总规模已超过545亿元，成为国内资金量第二大的商品期货品 种，仅次于黄金。 有业内人士指出，这轮暴涨由多重因素共同推动。 首先，全球向绿色能源转型（如电动车、光伏、电网升级）产生了巨大而持久的铜需求。其次，全球主要铜矿面临矿石质量下降、新项 目投产缓慢等问题，供应增长乏力。 此外，市场预期全球货币政策将转向宽松，大量金融资本将铜视为抗通胀的优质资产，纷纷买入。 近期，国内国际铜价同步飙升至前所未有的高度。 上海期货交易所的沪铜主力合约价格突破9.2万元/吨大关，创下该合约上市以来的最高纪录。与此同时，伦敦金属交易所的铜价也攀升 至历史新高。 事实上，当前市场确实是存在"金融多头"与"产业空头"的复杂情形的。 一方面，投资基金看好长期前景持续买入；另一方面，下游用电企业为应对高昂成本，不得不通过期货市场进行套期保值来锁定成本。 以前，铜价涨跌，看的是全球经济好不好。 房子建得多、工厂订单满，铜价就上去；经济冷了，铜价就下来。 但现在有点不一样，推动铜价一飞冲天的，是全球能源革命。 我们正在拼命摆脱石油和煤炭，转向风能、太阳能和电动汽车，而这场革 ...

当楼市出现调整，赣州老城区那些建于上世纪、已经老旧的二手房，是继续留在手中还是低价处理呢？ 近期我们关注并介绍了赣南纸厂小区在某二手房平台成交了一套单价仅1900多元的二手房，让很多老赣州人内心感到唏嘘。 其实在这波调整中，对于老城区许多上世纪八九十年代的老旧小区，这种价格还真的不是个例了。 我们必须接受一个事实，在当前房地产供求背景下，当城市发展重心转移，拆迁预期又比较难实现的时候，老房子的价值内核已经发生了改变。 许多产品功能落后、居住体验差的老破旧在这一轮周期中受到的冲击最大，甚至大有被市场抛弃的态势。 房龄突破三十年，楼层又高的两房户型，成交单价在两三千左右一平米，总价不过二十万，这样的房源在老城区并不少。 例如2025年6月15日，赣州新赣南路社区成交了一套建筑面积约65.33㎡两房一厅，成交单价3031元/㎡，成交总价19.8万元。 该房屋位于高楼层（共8层），小区建成时间大概在1990年。 又例如一个多月后的7月29日，赣州姚府里成交了一套建筑面积约67.87㎡两房一厅，成交单价2093元/㎡，成交总价仅为14.2万元。 该房屋的建成年份大概在上世纪八十年代末至九十年代初之间，同样也位于高楼层（ ...

2025年12月4日，现货黄金短线走高，涨破4210美元/盎司，涨幅0.15%。 上海金ETF嘉实(159831)紧密跟踪上海金基准价，直接投资于上海黄金交易所的黄金现货合约，为投资 者提供透明、高效的黄金投资工具。 没有股票账户的投资者还可以通过场外联接基金(016582)布局黄金投资机遇。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 有分析指出，黄金作为兼具避险、抗通胀属性的核心资产，2026年价格走势将继续受多重复杂因素交织 影响。国际货币基金组织最新预测显示，2026年全球经济增速将从2025年的3.2%放缓至3.1%，美国经 济增速降至2.0%，欧元区与日本增速维持在1.0%-1.2%区间，新兴市场增速虽保持在4.5%左右，但内部 分化加剧。 迈科期货表示，12月3日晚间海外市场情绪从日本央行加息的担忧中逐步恢复，美国三大股指均小幅收 涨，受到欧美货币政策预期差影响，特朗普并没有立即宣布美联储新任主席人选，市场认为其当选后将 推动倾向宽松的货币政策，受此影响，美联储12月份降息概率回升，基本完全定价降息预期，欧元区 CPI同比增速回升，贵金属价格表现继续分化，其中黄金价格 ...

Group 1 - The article presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and structural investment themes to capture excess returns [12][13] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders, as well as sectors aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, including AI and innovative companies [13][15] - The anticipated performance of A-shares and offshore Chinese stocks is expected to be roughly comparable in 2026, supported by liquidity from southbound capital and global investors [12][13] Group 2 - The article highlights the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to their relatively low valuations compared to other emerging markets, with a focus on the technology sector [14][15] - Key drivers for the Chinese stock market include abundant liquidity, valuation recovery, and the impact of AI applications and consumer sentiment upgrades on corporate profitability [17][20] - The article notes that the current market rally has already priced in profit expectations, and the sustainability of this rally will depend on actual improvements in corporate earnings [20] Group 3 - The article discusses expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, predicting a reduction to a target range of 3.0% to 3.25% by mid-2026 [22] - It suggests that the current economic environment may lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks, benefiting the equity market [17][18] Group 4 - The article indicates a preference for global stock over bonds and credit, with a recommendation to overweight U.S. stocks and Japanese stocks in the global asset allocation [30][31] - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across global stocks, particularly in light of a weakening dollar and supportive global policies [33] Group 5 - The article presents a positive outlook for gold prices, forecasting a potential rise to $4,500 per ounce in 2026, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflation hedging demands [27][28] - It also highlights the potential for gold mining stocks to perform well in the context of rising gold prices [34]

大家周末好，早上起来看了一下消息面，主要是券茅的减持，以及昨夜贵金属价格的大涨，尤其是白银价格大涨超6%，包括美股出现了5连阳，这些现象对 投资到底有什么影响呢，接下来听我慢慢说： 1、昨天晚上堪称"券茅"的东方财富发布公告称，三名高管自公告披露之日起的十五个交易日后的三个月内进行减持，计划减持合计不超过总股本的0.022% 的上市股份，如果以昨天的收盘价23.4元计算，这次三位高管减持的市值最多为7839万元。 其一白银和黄金不同的地方，在于不仅仅有贵金属的属性，在过去白银本身就有货币属性，另外白银还有工业属性，从2021年以来白银就始终处于供不应求 的状态，简单说白银价格的上涨，一定是供给层面的偏紧引发； 其二就是黄金一样的属性了，那就是对美联储降息的预期，从现在的情况看，12月美元降息的概率已经逼近90%，就是说降息基本上没啥悬念了，这个时候 抗通胀的概念都会上涨，比如说昨夜黄金大涨了1.29%，已经飙升到了4256美元。 所以说，简单总结白银和黄金的上涨都属于对降息预期的升温，白银有所不同的是，还受到了工业需求增加的影响，所以在绝对涨幅和弹性上稍微要超出黄 金。 但是从操作层面来说，白银昨夜大涨之后出 ...

整体看金价未来仍有上涨动力，黄金企业业绩有望受益于金价上涨。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 11月27日 ，金价及A股三大指数盘中回落，有色黄金相关ETF产品盘中走弱，截至13:52，有色金属ETF 基金(516650)涨幅收窄至0.73%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨0.53%，黄金ETF华夏(518850)盘中转跌0.19%。 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近9个交易日有8个交易日获资金布局，合计"吸金"3.57亿元。 渤海证券分析指出，短期看美国经济数据表现不会给美联储后续降息带来太大阻力，26 年美联储新主 席或受政治因素影响而超预期降息，或进一步利好金价。全球ETF 需求快速增长并且仍有增长潜力， 饰品需求受抑制但影响不大，工业需求保持平稳，央行长期购金空间仍足，黄金需求仍有支撑。从避险 和抗通胀方面看，短期看全球区域冲突事件频发激发避险需求，长期看美国债务风险居高不下将削弱美 元和美债吸引力，从而助推黄金作为避险和抗通胀资产的吸引力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is considered a strong stock due to its ability to withstand economic cycles and its long-term stable growth, making it a preferred asset for beating inflation [2][15]. Group 1: Moutai's Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated its ability to lead the high-end liquor industry through economic cycles, showcasing its resistance to downturns and its capacity for long-term growth [2][15]. - Investors have developed a sense of complacency regarding Moutai's performance, expecting consistent growth at a moderate rate, with many believing that significant downward adjustments in performance are unlikely [2]. - The sustainability of Moutai's high dividends and return on equity (ROE) is crucial, as is the continuous upward trend in profit margins, both of which rely on price increases [2]. Group 2: Inflation Resistance Re-evaluation - The perception that essential consumer goods can resist inflation is challenged, as many do not outperform inflation rates, and their stock returns may not exceed broader market indices [4]. - Moutai's pricing trends are closely tied to GDP growth, indicating a dual characteristic of cyclical bubbles and long-term inflation [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current white liquor market is experiencing a "volume and price decline," with supply exceeding demand expected in the coming years due to previously added production capacity [9]. - Long-term demand remains unpredictable, but maintaining current demand levels is a core assumption for future projections [9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to transition from business to consumer demand, with the potential for a new growth cycle as wealth effects spread through society [13]. - Historical patterns suggest that Moutai was once a common choice for family celebrations, indicating a latent demand that could be reactivated [12]. Group 5: Moutai's Pricing Strategy - Moutai's pricing strategy is pivotal, with price increases directly impacting company performance, and the introduction of differentiated products helps stabilize prices [19][20]. - The revenue structure of Moutai has diversified, with a significant portion now coming from non-standard products, which are expected to contribute to higher profit margins [26]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Performance - Despite declining prices in the market, Moutai's stock has not followed suit, with some investors viewing the current price as an attractive entry point based on the stability of channel profits [29]. - There is a noted discrepancy between reported performance and actual market demand, indicating potential risks for future earnings adjustments [30].