有人的地方就有江湖，有金钱的地方就有喜忧。 最近贵金属的价格像过山车一样跌宕起伏，相信关注的朋友都深有体会。 25年下半年截至到新年1月29日前，黄金都是一路高歌，屡次刷新记录， 然而1月30日进入黑色星期五，现货黄金单日暴跌9.25%，创1983年以来最大跌幅，盘中一度崩跌12.92%，从前期高位5627美元/盎司砸到4682美元； 现货白银更狠，从122美元的高点腰斩式触及74.28美元/盎司。 全球贵金属市场一夜蒸发超3.4万亿美元，相当于整个加密货币市场的总市值。 22万投资者爆仓，总金额超9亿美元，有人一夜之间本金归零，有人毕生积蓄打了水漂。 无独有偶，曾经辉煌的房地产也是在泡沫破裂后黯然退场，无数人血本无归。 于是不少人开始追问：以后的黄金，会成为以前的房子吗？ 二者虽有表面的相似性，更有本质的差异，而这些差异恰恰决定了黄金难以复刻房产曾经的投资路径。 黄金与房子的相似之处，集中在"保值"与"周期"的表象上。 抛开市场的大起大落不谈，我们先来看看黄金和房产的定位。 黄金作为金融与避险资产，其价值基础是全球信用和避险需求。 目前，全球央行购金（"再货币化"）、地缘政治风险是主要驱动力。 房子是居住与 ...

1月30日，黄金价格迎来40年一遇的暴跌，数以万亿计的资产蒸发。 一家名为"杰我睿"的黄金料商，爆雷了。 截至2026年1月26日下午3时，媒体披露的投资者未结清余额合计达133.92亿元；而据坊间自发统计，截至2026年1月29日22时，涉事金额已高达187亿元。 在史无前例的黄金牛市中，无数普通人似乎正在成为被割的散户。 关于黄金的坏消息，是接二连三的。 深圳的水贝市场，全国最大的黄金珠宝批发市场，最近批量涌入维权的消费者。 如果不是年末的这次爆雷，"杰我睿"无非是水贝无数黄金料商中寂寂无名的一家。在规模上，他们不是水贝的头部，在知名度上，更是远远逊色于连锁金 店。 所谓料商，就是在水贝市场买卖黄金原料的商家。他们从市场和个人那里收购黄金，将其提纯、加工成标准黄金出售给中小商家。 水贝成千上万个珠宝小作坊，没有资格直接从银行拿货，必须每天向料商"借金"或"买料"来维持生产。 通常情况下，料商的盈利模式就是通过流通环节赚手续费、点差费。 杰我睿，就是一家深耕水贝多年的黄金料商，为 水贝的中小珠宝商提供黄金原材料批发。 不过跟同行不一样的是，杰我睿很快就开始做起了普通消费者的生意。 1月31日，深圳罗湖区工作 ...

Core Insights - In early 2026, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record 5002 tons in 2025, surpassing the 5000-ton mark for the first time, with a total value of $555 billion, indicating a significant shift in global asset allocation logic [1][5]. Demand Structure - Investment demand was the key driver behind the record gold market in 2025, with gold investment demand rising to 2175 tons, marking a significant milestone. Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 801 tons, indicating a rare large-scale return of investment [3][4]. - The strong inflow into gold ETFs signifies a shift in investor sentiment, as previously suppressed demand due to high interest rates is being released with the approaching turning point in global monetary policy [3][4]. Consumption Trends - Traditional consumer demand showed some divergence, with global gold jewelry consumption slightly declining in volume due to high prices, yet the total value of jewelry consumption continued to grow, reflecting the resilient nature of gold in the consumer sector [4][5]. - Central bank gold purchases remained a crucial support for gold demand, with net purchases staying at historically high levels, reinforcing the perception of gold as a vital tool for asset safety [4][5]. Macroeconomic Context - The record gold demand in 2025 is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation above long-term targets, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising credit risks of major currencies, which have enhanced gold's status as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - Emerging markets played a significant role in the growth of gold demand in 2025, with countries like China and India showing resilience in physical gold and investment demand, counterbalancing cyclical fluctuations in developed economies [5][6]. Future Outlook - Despite gold prices being at historical highs, the supporting factors for demand remain strong, with ongoing uncertainties in the global economy and a trend towards safety and stability in asset allocation likely to persist [6]. - The development of financial instruments like gold ETFs is lowering investment barriers and enhancing market liquidity, suggesting that gold demand may continue to remain elevated [6].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices has led to significant profit increases for gold mining companies, with a collective net profit forecast of 602 billion to 625 billion yuan for six companies in 2025, reflecting an average growth rate of at least 84% [3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining, holding the largest gold reserves, expects a net profit of 510 billion to 520 billion yuan for 2025, accounting for about 80% of the total among the six companies, with a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [5]. - China National Gold anticipates a net profit of 48 billion to 54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.76% to 59.48% [5]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold expects a net profit of 30 billion to 32 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 70% to 81% [6]. - Zhaojin Mining has the highest net profit growth rate at 242%, expecting a profit of 1.22 billion to 1.82 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.27 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of January 29, international gold prices have risen for nine consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high of 5598 USD per ounce [8]. - The macroeconomic environment, including statements from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and central bank independence, has catalyzed the demand for gold as a safe haven [8]. - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation expectations, with a systematic resonance in market behavior towards gold [8][10]. Group 3: Global Gold Demand - According to the World Gold Council, global gold investment demand reached 2175 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with significant contributions from gold bars and coins [10]. - The demand for gold ETFs also saw a net increase of 801 tons for the year, indicating strong investor interest amid ongoing economic and geopolitical risks [10].

紫金天风期货研究员刘诗瑶表示，近期，有色板块在贵金属点燃市场情绪下开始走高，其中铜价短期内 更是上探前期历史高位。受益于美债、美元等资产的减持，黄金、白银等贵金属价格持续创下新高。在 全球货币超发背景下，导致2025年以来的铜价大涨的逻辑依然没有改变——大宗商品成为抗通胀核心资 产，伦敦现货黄金连续突破4500美元/盎司、5000美元/盎司、5500美元/盎司关口后，资金有望沿"贵金 属—工业金属"路径扩散，铜等品种接力上涨，形成"货币贬值—商品增值"的闭环叙事。 近期，铜价涨势显著，其中伦敦三个月期铜首次站上14000美元/吨上方。Wind数据显示，截至北京时间 1月29日14:05，伦敦三个月期铜期货最高至14125美元/吨，日内涨幅一度超7%，沪铜期货主力期货合 约最高达110970元/吨，日内一度涨超8%，两者均创下历史新高，2026年以来累计涨幅分别为7.26%、 11.92%。 ...

北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储2026年首次议息会议落下帷幕。最终决议毫无悬念：维持3.5%-3.75%的 基准利率不变，按下了此前连续三次降息的"暂停键"。这不是简单的政策观望，更不是对经济形势的盲 目乐观。深挖10:2的投票分歧、鲍威尔的强硬表态以及全球市场的连锁反应就能发现，这场"不降息"的 决定，是美联储在抗通胀、守独立、控溢出效应之间的艰难平衡，更暴露了当前全球货币政策的集体困 局。 但通胀问题仍未解决，核心PCE物价指数同比上涨3%，距离2%的目标还有差距，尤其是服务价格、租 金等领域降温缓慢。这种背景下，美联储内部分裂明显：10名委员支持维持利率，2名委员坚决主张降 息25个基点。分歧的本质，是"防通胀反弹"与"怕经济降温"两派的博弈，而最终的"不降息"，实则是选 择了"短期控风险优先"的策略。 博弈二：拒政治施压，守住央行独立性底线 这场"不降息"，更是美联储对白宫政治施压的直接回应。特朗普政府多次抨击美联储，要求大幅降息刺 激经济，甚至通过调查鲍威尔施压，试图干预货币政策走向。 博弈一：抗通胀vs稳增长，内部分歧摆上台面 美联储此次拒降息，核心矛盾是"通胀粘性"与"经济韧性"的对冲。最新数据 ...

铜铜铜铜 铜铜铜 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03093454 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 上周，铜价探低回升，沪期铜最高触及99500元/吨附近支撑表现良好，LME铜短线支持位在12700美元/吨。本周初来看，有色板块在贵金属点 燃市场情绪下，开始走高，预计铜价短期内有望上探前期历史高位，等待更高的机会出现新一轮上攻。 ◼ 特朗普最新的倡议是他的"和平委员会"——在达沃斯高调发布。该委员会的抱负如今显然已远远超出最初稳定和重建加沙的目标。特朗普 政府正在做的是打造一个联合国以外的替代性论坛。市场更担忧的在于，特朗普政府任期还剩三年，他反复无常的举动引发重大危机的可能 性相当高——从全球经济到国际政治体系，再到美国自身民主与社会的稳定。在这种情况下，对于美国的盟友而言，对美国"去风险化"似 乎是唯一理性的策略。但在一个美国仍然是 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a structural divergence, with funds showing a split risk appetite, leading to a surge in traditional resource assets like gold and oil while tech sectors face pressure [3][4] - The current market behavior reflects a response to global macro uncertainties, with one part of the capital seeking refuge in safe-haven assets and another part remaining cautious or reallocating [3] - The performance of different sectors is expected to continue diverging as long as external geopolitical factors and dollar fluctuations remain unchanged, with gold and resource sectors benefiting from dual expectations of "risk aversion + inflation resistance" [3][4] Group 2 - The afternoon trading strategy should focus on maintaining balance and avoiding chasing high prices, particularly in the resource sectors that are already held [4] - For technology and growth sectors that are currently under pressure, it may be prudent to consider gradual accumulation at lower levels rather than making large investments [4] - Key observations for the afternoon include monitoring the stability of the gold sector and identifying any sectors that may show resilience and recover from declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in nickel prices is led by long - term expectations. Although the price has received regulatory attention after consecutive sharp increases and may experience corrections approaching the Spring Festival, the upward trend is not over, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the supply - demand is tight with cost support, and a low - buying strategy is also advised after price corrections [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: Global visible inventory reached 352,000 tons, increasing by 780 tons this week, with domestic social inventory up 2,784 tons and LME inventory down 2,044 tons. Jinchuan nickel is under tight supply, and its premium remains around 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: Social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are expected to increase in the future. Supply - side raw material shortages, especially for hot - rolled products, may lead to a downward revision of cold - rolled production schedules. Demand - side pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, but due to strong bullish sentiment, spot prices are rising with hoarding behavior [10][19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, refined nickel production increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. Net imports were 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. Total supply was 450,000 tons, a 45% year - on - year increase. In January, high prices are expected to further boost production, and net imports are also expected to increase [27]. - **Demand**: From January to December, pure nickel consumption increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating demand is in the off - season, and overall consumption growth has slowed [30]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Market sentiment for overseas nickel mines is positive, and prices are rising. The Indonesian government is still processing the approval of mining company work plans and budgets [31][32]. - **NPI**: NPI production is recovering, with prices rising and profit margins improving. Some production lines are switching from NPI to high - grade nickel ice due to falling NPI prices [33][34]. - **Chromium - Based Materials**: Chromium - based prices are rising. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on chromium exports starting from January 1, 2026, leading to a continuous rebound in chromium ore prices [38][44]. - **Cost Estimation**: Estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 14,400 yuan/ton, and integrated cost is about 13,900 yuan/ton [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, the combined stainless steel crude steel production of China and Indonesia is expected to be 45.06 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In January, due to shortages of hot - rolled products, production schedules may be revised downward. China's stainless steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year to 1.519 million tons, exports remained flat at 5.031 million tons, and net exports increased by 11% to 3.512 million tons [56]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding production has a high growth rate, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, growth in other terminal sectors is not optimistic, especially in the real estate market [57][58]. 3.2.4 New Energy Automobiles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a 29% and 28.2% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.9%. In January 2026, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles decreased. Power battery production followed the trend of vehicle sales, and in January, the impact of export tax rebate reduction may mitigate the decline in battery production [63]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a 103% year - on - year increase [68]. 3.2.5 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. Ternary precursor production increased by 6% to 903,000 tons, and ternary cathode material production increased by 19% to 686,000 tons. In January, demand slowed down, but prices followed the upward trend of refined nickel [70]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% to 444,000 tons, and high - grade nickel ice production decreased by 18% to 224,000 tons. Rising sulfur prices increased MHP production costs, but strong nickel sulfate demand boosted intermediate product prices and production [76]. 3.3 Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: For single - side trading, adopt a low - buying strategy after price corrections and stabilizations. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: For single - side trading, buy at low prices after corrections and stabilizations. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, reaching an unprecedented high of $5043, marking the first time it has crossed the $5000 threshold, while silver has also seen significant gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold hit $5043, reflecting a notable increase, while spot silver rose by over 1.12% [1]. - The opening price for gold was $5013.4, with a trading volume of 23,500 contracts [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is typically inverse; as the dollar depreciates, gold prices tend to rise due to its status as a benchmark currency in the international market [3]. - The ongoing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold's investment appeal, especially as other financial assets yield lower returns [3]. - Gold's intrinsic value as a hedge against inflation is increasingly relevant amid global fiscal imbalances, raising concerns about long-term inflation [3]. - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, have further fueled gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The Israeli military is on high alert due to escalating tensions in the region, particularly concerning potential US military actions against Iran, which could have broader implications [4]. - The combination of geopolitical instability and expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve is contributing to the bullish trend in gold and silver prices [5].