Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]

Investment Ratings - **Copper**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - **Aluminum**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is responding [1] - **Alumina**: ★☆☆, with a bullish drive but less market operability [1] - **Zinc**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but poor market maneuverability [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: ★☆☆, implying a bullish tendency but low trading potential [1] - **Tin**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading viability [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: ★★★, suggesting a distinct upward trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - **Polysilicon**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced and it's better to wait and see [1] Core Views - Before the Fed cuts interest rates, the market trades on the expectation of liquidity release, and copper is sensitive to economic indicators. In the domestic copper market, it's advisable to take profits on previous long positions and monitor the premium of the 2510 contract's call option with a strike price of 82,000 yuan [2] - The short - term upward trend of non - ferrous metals is evident, but different metals have different fundamentals and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - The domestic and international copper prices continue to rise, with the spot copper reaching 80,755 yuan. The Shanghai flat - water copper still has a premium of 65 yuan. It's recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the call option premium [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum is strong, with the spot discount expanding. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low. The casting aluminum alloy price has increased. Alumina has over - supply, and the spot price is falling [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising, driving up LME zinc. The domestic market is weaker, and it's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The inventory of pure nickel increases, while that of nickel iron and stainless steel decreases. It's expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin rises with increased positions. It's necessary to pay attention to the performance at 275,000 yuan. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, and it's advisable to hold a small number of long positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuates at a low level, and the market trading is active. The total inventory is decreasing, and the price is waiting for a clear direction [9] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon closes higher with reduced positions. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, and it's expected to maintain a volatile pattern [10] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closes higher with reduced positions. The spot price is stable, and the battery and component prices are rising. It's expected to fluctuate with significant upward pressure [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. With the Fed's high expectation of interest rate cuts, the non - ferrous metals sector has a positive atmosphere. Different metals show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - economic factors. Some metals are expected to be strong, while others may face risks or show a range - bound pattern [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - Market performance: Domestic equity markets strengthened, US inflation data was slightly better than expected, and employment data was weak. Copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper closed up 0.45% at $10,057/ton, and the main SHFE copper contract closed at 80,490 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory and basis: LME copper inventory decreased by 875 tons to 154,175 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 13.5%, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $61.5/ton. In China, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.3 tons, bonded - area inventory declined slightly, SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons. Shanghai spot premium was 85 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's inventory declined with a reduced spot premium [2]. - Outlook: US employment data was weaker than expected, and the market expected the Fed's dovish stance. Overseas copper mine supply had some disruptions, and domestic copper production decreased marginally. Although consumption was weak, copper prices were expected to remain strong. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract was 79,600 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M was $9,920 - 10,150/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: With the decline of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory, the strengthening of the equity market, and the weakening of the US dollar, aluminum prices were strong. LME aluminum closed up 2.17% at $2,679/ton, and the main SHFE aluminum contract closed at 21,005 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE aluminum weighted - contract open interest increased by 2.7 to 569,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 66,000 tons. Domestic mainstream consumption - area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 473,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 132,500 tons. Aluminum rod processing fees were lowered, and the market's shipping rhythm slowed down. The spot in East China was at par with futures, and downstream buying sentiment increased [4]. - Outlook: The macro - sentiment was generally positive. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provided strong support, while weak domestic terminal demand limited the upside. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The reference range for the domestic main contract was 20,800 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M was $2,640 - 2,700/ton [4]. Lead - Market performance: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,900 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $14.5 to $1,991.5/ton [5]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,700 tons, and LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 62,800 tons. The lead industry was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with raw material shortages restricting smelter production, and downstream consumption being weaker than in previous years [5]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, there was some support for lead prices. However, if the commodity sentiment weakened and secondary smelting recovered, lead prices faced significant downside risks [5]. Zinc - Market performance: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.19% at 22,253 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $20 to $2,891/ton [7]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 44,900 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons. Domestic social inventory increased to 154,200 tons. Zinc ore and zinc ingots remained in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The LME market had low warrants after long - term destocking, and the contango widened. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio declined rapidly [7]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, although some institutions and foreign investors were bearish on zinc, the short - term downside was limited, and zinc prices were expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rebounded slightly on Thursday [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply was constrained as Myanmar's tin mine复产 was slow, Yunnan faced a severe shortage of tin ore, and some smelters planned maintenance in September. Demand was in the off - season, with traditional consumption areas being weak, and the increase in AI - related demand being limited. Domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly last week [8]. - Outlook: Despite weak off - season demand, the significant short - term supply decline was expected to keep tin prices oscillating in the short term [8]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices oscillated on Thursday [10]. - Market factors: The weak US initial jobless claims data strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Nickel - iron prices were expected to remain stable and slightly strong in the short term due to improved but still low iron - mill profits and the expected increase in stainless - steel production in August and September. The supply of intermediate products was tight, and demand provided some support [10]. - Outlook: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, and the long - term support from US easing expectations and domestic policies was expected. It was recommended to buy on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract this week was 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M was $14,500 - 16,500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index remained unchanged at 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 71,000 yuan, up 0.40% [12]. - Supply and demand: This week, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.8% to 19,963 tons, and inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. With the peak season approaching, there was a demand for spot stocking [12]. - Outlook: From September to October, domestic lithium carbonate was expected to continue destocking, and there might be structural opportunities in the far - month contracts. The reference range for the GFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract was 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose by 0.41% to 2,946 yuan/ton on September 11 [14]. - Market factors: The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price also declined. The import window opened, and futures warrants increased. The supply of overseas ore was improving, and the smelting capacity was in surplus [14]. - Outlook: Short - term advice was to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 was 2,850 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and Fed interest - rate policies [14]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,870 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased by 3.90% [16]. - Market situation: The stainless - steel spot market oscillated narrowly, with 304 cold - rolled prices stable and 304 hot - rolled prices rising slightly due to tight supply. The overall market trading atmosphere was weak, especially for cold - rolled products [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose by 0.61% to 20,475 yuan/ton, with increased trading volume [18]. - Market factors: The downstream was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there were supply disruptions in scrap aluminum, providing cost support. The exchange lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [18]. - Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy prices were expected to remain high in the short term [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations help the sector stabilize periodically. The rapid recovery of hot metal output after the parade boosts the demand for furnace materials, supporting steel prices. Steel enterprises' rapid resumption of production and frequent policy expectations on the supply - side jointly lead to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2]. - The short - term prices of most varieties in the black building materials sector are expected to oscillate. Although there are some supporting factors, there are also limitations and uncertainties in demand and supply [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The main futures prices of the sector oscillated strongly yesterday, and the night - session prices oscillated. The statements in the NDRC report triggered small fluctuations in the market. The resumption of production by steel enterprises and policy expectations on the supply - side led to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2] 2. Raw Material Analysis Iron Element - In terms of iron ore, port maintenance led to a significant decline in Brazilian shipments, but the impact on annual shipments is expected to be small. The current demand has returned to the level before the parade restrictions, supporting iron ore demand. However, the peak - season demand for finished products needs to be continuously verified, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices leads to low electric - furnace profits, but resources are still tight, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - The recovery of steel mills' imported ore consumption to the pre - parade level indicates the recovery of hot metal production. Steel mills still have restocking demand before the National Day, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating. The recovery of coal mines is slower than that of downstream hot metal, and safety accidents continue to disrupt the coal - mine production increase rhythm. Under this supply - demand pattern, coal - mine inventories are being depleted at a low level, and there is still restocking expectation downstream before the National Day, so the coking coal price is expected to be supported [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, a new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [4] 3. Individual Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is average, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are weak, especially for building materials. Although the cost side has support and there is restocking demand during the peak season, it is expected that the performance of rebar will be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils [8] Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil. The demand has support in the short term as the small - sample hot metal output has recovered. The overall inventory level is moderate. The demand is expected to recover, and steel enterprises' inventories are at a low level, but the peak - season demand for finished products has not been verified, so the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8][9] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased this week. The pressure on finished product prices led to low electric - furnace profits, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - flow processes decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - The first - round price cut has been implemented, but the coking profit is still considerable, and the supply has basically returned to normal. After the parade, steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, and they maintain on - demand procurement. The coke supply will gradually become loose. With the support of high hot - metal production, steel mills still have restocking demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Coal mines have basically resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. The downstream steel and coking enterprises' procurement is cautious, and the upstream inventory is accumulating, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. After the parade, the production of coking coal and coke will gradually recover, and the downstream restocking on - demand will support the coking coal price [11] Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another wave of oscillations. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12] Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] Manganese Silicon - A new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure [16] Ferrosilicon - The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [17] 4. Index Information - On September 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2222.49, down 0.11%; the commodity 20 index was 2487.89, down 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2232.18, up 0.10%. The steel industry chain index was 1999.51, with a daily decline of 0.18%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month decline of 4.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.16% [100][102]

Report Information - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Black Building Materials Market Analysis Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is cooling, and the prices of finished steel products are weakening despite fluctuations. Steel demand remains sluggish in the traditional peak season, with narrowing mill profits and a deepening weak trend in the market. If demand fails to recover effectively, steel prices may continue to decline [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The focus will be on the recovery of steel mill production and the verification of peak - season demand after key events [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the coking coal market, with limited trading opportunities [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, influenced by downstream capacity integration and market sentiment. Polysilicon continues to show a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with prices subject to fluctuations due to policy and downstream price - passing progress [13][15]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices will follow macro - economic sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space is limited by demand [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3109 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warrants and open interest. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with unchanged registered warrants and increased open interest. Spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall supply of steel remains high, while demand is weak. Rebar's apparent demand is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased significantly, but the decline in apparent demand is more obvious, and inventory is continuously rising [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 805.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted open interest was 85.64 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.29% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, with a slight decrease in Australian shipments and a significant drop in Brazilian shipments due to port berth maintenance. The recent arrival volume has slightly decreased. The average daily hot - metal production has decreased, mainly in North China. Port inventory has increased, while steel mill inventory has decreased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price**: On September 10, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5854 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed up 0.14% at 5628 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in an interval - oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions. Their prices are likely to follow the black sector, especially the coking coal market, with limited trading opportunities [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8665 yuan/ton, up 3.03%. The weighted open interest decreased. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained unchanged. In August, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" situation. In September, it is expected to fluctuate due to downstream capacity integration and market sentiment [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 52885 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The weighted open interest decreased. The spot prices of N - type silicon materials showed slight adjustments. Polysilicon continues to show a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and prices are subject to fluctuations due to capacity integration and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and that in Central China remained unchanged. As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly. Glass production remains high, and downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it will follow macro - economic sentiment [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price remained unchanged. As of September 8, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with an increase in light soda ash inventory and a decrease in heavy soda ash inventory. Downstream glass production rates have changed slightly. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upward space is limited by demand [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 26 元/吨（0.834%）。当日注册仓单 230131 吨, 环比增加 7582 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.7894 万手，环比增加 1462 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3340 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 27 元/吨（0.814%）。 当日注册仓单 24459 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.0035 万手，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].