Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, geopolitical risks, and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose significantly, with the London gold price up 2.88% to $4,115 per ounce. The US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, the Chinese central bank increased its gold holdings for the 12th consecutive month, and US inflation showed signs of slowing. Domestic gold ETFs saw inflows, and some inventories remained stable while others changed slightly. The recommended strategy is to buy on support for gold and reduce long positions for silver [2]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of inventory changes, with some inventories increasing and others decreasing. The recommended strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated with a slight upward trend. The US government's potential end of the shutdown boosted market sentiment, while the supply of copper ore remained tight. Domestic weekly inventories decreased, and a short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased slightly. Supply of domestic zinc concentrate tightened, but overseas mine output increased. Consumption was in the off - season, but LME inventory decline and export opportunities provided some support. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased slightly. Supply from primary and recycled lead production was stable, and the battery enterprise's operating rate improved slightly. Domestic inventory was at a relatively low level for the year. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3][4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market showed a slow upward trend. The supply side saw a decrease in furnace openings in the southwest region, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by polysilicon and organic silicon production. The price is expected to range between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The market opened low and closed high. Supply decreased slightly, and inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the photovoltaic installation growth in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated with a slight upward trend. Market sentiment improved as the US government's shutdown neared an end, supply was temporarily tight, and demand was weak. A short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [4]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price increased slightly. Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand situation was weak with structural differentiation. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, and production may continue to decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price remained unchanged. Arrivals and shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. The supply - demand situation deteriorated marginally, and the price is expected to range between 740 - 770 yuan/ton. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price increased slightly. Iron water production decreased, and steel mill profits worsened. The third round of price increases was implemented, and the fourth was being considered. Inventories were at a low level, and the futures price was overvalued. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the price is expected to range between 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. Supply from the US decreased slightly, and South America is expected to increase production. Demand from crushing and exports improved. The US soybean market is bullish in the short - term, while the domestic market is relatively strong due to low valuation. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: Corn futures and spot prices rose. Channel inventories were low, and there was a need for restocking. New - crop production is expected to increase, and costs have decreased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price increased. Internationally, the supply surplus is expected to widen due to good growth in Indian sugarcane. Domestically, policy rumors led to a price rebound, but it is expected to follow the international market downwards. The recommended strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton futures price rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose. In the US, the grading inspection progress is known, and Australian exports decreased. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, with a trading range of 13,400 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market changed little. The estimated production in October increased, and exports also rose. There is a short - term inventory build - up and a long - term seasonal production decline expectation. A reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were stable. The laying hen inventory decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After the Double - Eleven promotion, the futures price is expected to oscillate downwards [8]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices showed a north - south divergence. Supply was abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price increased. In some production areas, acquisition prices rose, and the market sentiment was optimistic. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE futures price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased as new devices were put into operation and imports decreased. Demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [10]. - **PVC**: The PVC futures price decreased. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand was weak due to factors such as real - estate conditions and anti - dumping measures. A short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The PX supply was high, and PTA had a supply - demand situation with a slight inventory decrease. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing margin in PTA in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber futures price increased slightly. Raw material prices were stable, and inventories in Qingdao continued to increase but at a slower pace. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price decreased. Production lines were shut down, and inventory decreased as downstream restocked. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10][11]. - **PP**: The PP futures price oscillated slightly. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [11]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply pressure was high, and inventory was expected to increase. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price oscillated. Supply faced risks due to sanctions on Russia and potential actions against Venezuela, while demand was seasonally weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and if the Russian oil supply reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, short - selling on rallies can be considered [11]. - **Styrene**: The styrene futures price oscillated slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies or use a reverse calendar spread in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price increased. Supply was affected by maintenance, and inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand was balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the "Spider Web Strategy" in the context of Treasury futures, indicating its effectiveness in short-term trading, particularly in the TL contract with a signal win rate of 57.61% and an odds ratio of 1.64, outperforming the long position benchmark in terms of return volatility ratio and maximum drawdown [3][17][20] - The report also emphasizes the success of the "Net Long Position Ratio Change" indicator in mid-term trading, which showed a stable positive correlation with future returns in TF and T contracts, leading to the design of a long gradient leverage strategy that achieved annualized returns of 37.2% for TL [4][24][25] Short-term Trading: Spider Web Strategy Performance - The Spider Web Strategy, based on the daily changes in the top 20 members' long and short positions, has been tested and found to perform excellently on the TL contract, with a signal win rate of 57.61% and an odds ratio of 1.64 [3][17] - The strategy's performance in other contracts (TS, TF, T) was not as favorable, indicating a need for further refinement [3][17] Mid-term Trading: Net Long Position Ratio Change Indicator - The "Net Long Position Ratio Change" was constructed as a continuous timing factor, showing a stable positive correlation with future returns in TF and T contracts, while being negatively correlated in TL [4][24] - The strategy designed based on this indicator achieved annualized returns of 26.54%, significantly outperforming the benchmark for the CSI 300 index futures [25] Individual Behavior Analysis of Treasury Futures Members - Analysis of individual member behavior in Treasury futures revealed significant differentiation in long position ratios and trading styles, with the Spider Web signal failing to outperform the composite signals of all members [5][12] - The report notes that the high participation of institutional investors in the Treasury futures market may dilute the effectiveness of the Spider Web Strategy due to their lower trading frequency [23] Gradient Leverage Strategy - A "Long Gradient Leverage Strategy" was developed, where higher thresholds correspond to heavier positions, achieving significant enhancements across all four Treasury futures varieties [38][39][40] - The strategy's annualized returns were reported as 1.60% for TS, 5.15% for TF, and 7.61% for T, all significantly exceeding their respective benchmarks [39][40][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - **PVC**: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - **Rubber**: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - **Glass**: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - **PP**: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Soda Ash**: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The potential halving of Sino-US fentanyl tariffs boosted market sentiment, and the EC futures market continued to rise. On October 29, EC2512 closed at 1,871 points, up 4.62% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported $1,246/TEU on October 24, up 8.8% month-on-month, and the latest SCFIS European line reported 1,312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [5][6]. - Spot freight rates have risen significantly. The final settlement price of the EC2510 contract was 1,161.63 points. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the fentanyl - related tariffs on China [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, the price difference among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - collection pressure, but the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam WK46 weekly quote decreased by $150 compared to last week, and it also released a PSS quote of $300/FEU for the Far East - Northern Europe route [7]. - Different shipping companies have different price quotes for November. It is expected that spot freight rates will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to raise prices. However, the implementation of price increases needs to be monitored [7]. - On the demand side, shipments are expected to improve from November to December, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipment rhythm should be noted. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 - port route will be 241,100/260,400/289,200 TEU in October, November, and December respectively, with a slight increase in December [7]. - Regarding Sino - US ship sanctions, there is an expectation of a reduction in port fees. The progress of the Palestine - Israel cease - fire agreement is tortuous and has recently escalated. The sentiment regarding fentanyl tariffs has eased, and the progress of subsequent negotiations should be followed [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For the EC2512 contract, long positions can be reduced and profits can be taken at high prices. The remaining positions can be rolled with a low - buying strategy. Attention should be paid to the Palestine - Israel negotiations, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and port congestion [8][10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 2. Industry News - The Wall Street Journal reported that if China takes action to cut the export of fentanyl chemicals, the US will halve the 20% fentanyl - related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%). The expected agreement may be adjusted depending on the meeting between the two sides [11]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will lower the port fees imposed on each other [12]. - On October 28th, Hamas denied any connection with the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasized its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also stated that the Israeli military's attacks violated the cease - fire agreement and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations [12]. - Market news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately launch an attack on Gaza [13]. 3. Market Data Futures Market - For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., the report provides closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open - interest change percentages [5]. - The report also presents the month - spread structure, including the price differences and their changes between different contracts [5]. Container Freight Rates - It provides the prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various container freight rates, such as SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes like Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South Africa, etc. [5]. Fuel Costs - The prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of WTI and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are reported [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply in China is expected to remain ample due to upcoming plant restarts and new capacity, while demand is limited as downstream products face losses and high inventories. Short - term BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [1]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and profit issues. Although new plants are starting up, demand is weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. Methanol - The port methanol market is pressured by high inventory and weak demand, with price and basis both weakening. The inland market has deeper price drops. The market is trading on the "weak reality vs strong expectation" logic, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas restrictions [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply growth is slowing due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand is improving, and inventories are decreasing. Cost support is strong, but the 01 contracts face inventory pressure. Long - term low - buying opportunities in the 05 contracts can be considered, while also monitoring the impact of sanctions on refinery loads [4]. Para - Xylene (PX), PTA, Ethylene Glycol (EG), and Short - Fiber - PX supply is tightening due to unplanned maintenance, and demand is strengthening. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 6700, and positions can be reduced on rallies. - PTA's rebound is limited by the lack of substantial policies and weak crude oil supply - demand expectations. Pressure above 4600 should be noted, and long positions can be reduced on rallies. - EG's short - term rebound is driven by cost, but the far - month supply - demand structure is weak, with significant inventory build - up in November - December. - Short - fiber prices are rebounding due to good demand and strong raw materials, but the rebound space is limited, and the low - inventory provides support [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda demand is weak in the short term due to high supply and low alumina prices, but there may be support in the medium - to - long term as downstream restocking is expected. Existing short positions can be closed, and downstream restocking should be monitored. - PVC is in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to increase next week as some maintenance ends, while demand remains weak. Cost provides bottom - end support, and the market is expected to remain under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Pure Benzene - Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (December) decreased by $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel (-0.5%), and WTI crude (December) fell by $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel (-0.3%). CFR Japan naphtha dropped by $3 to $578 per ton (-0.5%) [1]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene spot in East China decreased by $10 to $6510 per ton (-0.2%), and EB2512 futures fell by $8 to $6539 per ton (-0.1%) [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow increased by $68 to -$337 per ton (16.8%), and EPS cash flow rose by $10 to $240 per ton (4.3%) [1]. Inventories - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.40 million tons to 8.50 million tons (-14.1%), and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports dropped by 0.95 million tons to 19.30 million tons (-4.7%) [1]. Industry Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate remained at 79.2%, while domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 72.7% [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.18%), and MA2605 closed at 2325 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.35%) [3]. Inventories - Methanol port inventory increased by 2.08 million tons to 151.2 million tons (1.40%), and social inventory rose by 2.13 million tons to 187.3 million tons (1.15%) [3]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.70% to 75.85%, and downstream external MTO device operating rate dropped by 8.18% to 78.1% [3]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7024 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.79%), and PP2601 closed at 6699 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan (0.56%) [4]. Inventories - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.5 million tons (-2.81%), and PP enterprise inventory dropped by 4.02 million tons to 63.9 million tons (-5.92%) [4]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 81.5%, and PP device operating rate fell by 2.28% to 75.9% [4]. PX, PTA, EG, and Short - Fiber PX - Related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by $9 to $824 per ton (1.1%), and PX spot price in RMB decreased by 11 yuan to 6732 yuan/ton (-0.2%) [5]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - PTA spot price in East China increased by 55 yuan to 4505 yuan/ton (1.2%), and TA2601 futures rose by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan/ton (2.2%) [5]. EG - Related Prices and Spreads - EG spot price in East China decreased by 4 yuan to 4183 yuan/ton (-0.1%), and EG2601 futures rose by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan/ton (0.8%) [5]. Short - Fiber - 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price increased by 5 yuan to 6405 yuan/ton (0.1%), and short - fiber futures PF2512 rose by 104 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton (1.7%) [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price decreased by 62.5 yuan to 2500 yuan/ton (-2.4%), and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4600 yuan/ton (0.0%) [7]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda price increased by $10 to $390 per ton (2.6%), and caustic soda export profit rose by $89 to $125.8 per ton (242.0%) [7]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6%, and PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 73.7% [7]. Demand (Operating Rates) - Alumina industry operating rate data is unavailable, and viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained at 88.6% [7]. Inventories - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 0.7 million tons to 18.8 million tons (-3.8%), and PVC upstream factory inventory dropped by 2.7 million tons to 33.4 million tons (-7.4%) [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port was supported as the willingness of port warehousing enterprises to receive Iranian cargoes decreased due to the intensification of Sino - US trade conflicts and the sanctions on Iranian - related transport vessels last week. However, on October 13, Trump expressed the intention to restart negotiations with Iran, which might lead to a relaxation of sanctions [2]. - The coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland area rebounded again, and the inland inventory increased from a low level, weakening the support for the port. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde all declined to varying degrees [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding additional points), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][34]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) is provided [35][43]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report includes figures on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [39][49]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][54]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [3]. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low [3]. - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term trend of the soybean meal futures main contract is in a wide - range oscillatory phase, lacking strong upward momentum but supported by import costs. The soybean oil futures main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase, affected by various factors such as inventory, demand, and policies [8][30]. - To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 38th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week. The high inventory may be alleviated by partial holiday shutdowns. Demand is restricted by breeding losses, but pre - holiday stocking demand has warmed up the market. The mid - term trend is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12]. - Variety diagnosis: The main funds are strongly bearish, with a large inflow of funds and a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. In the 38th week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 461,200 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key regions was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous week. Double - festival stocking has slightly increased trading volume, but slow catering demand recovery restricts提货 volume. High operating rates and sufficient port inventories suppress spot prices. After the exhaustion of Argentina's tax - free quota, market sentiment has recovered. The futures show an oscillatory trend affected by US bio - fuel policies and competing oils. It is necessary to pay attention to import costs, competing oil trends, and macro - policies [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. Y2601 may continue to oscillate in the short term [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [34]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][46][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Since the third quarter, the "anti-involution" policy has boosted bullish sentiment in the commodity market, leading to a significant rebound in stainless steel futures, with the main contract breaking through 13,300 yuan/ton [1] - In mid-August, stainless steel futures prices quickly declined as market bullish sentiment cooled, but by September, prices returned to an upward trend due to strong fundamentals and rising raw material prices [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite a seasonal increase in imports and a rise in port inventories, with domestic prices influenced by strong pricing intentions from Philippine mines [2] - The domestic market for nickel iron has seen increased competition, with prices stabilizing around 950-960 yuan/nickel point, while Indonesian nickel iron prices are reported at 960 yuan/nickel point [2] - Chrome ore prices have remained stable, with current prices for South African chrome concentrate at approximately 57 yuan/ton, while future prices have increased to 284 USD/ton due to rising shipping costs [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Production - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has led to a slight improvement in downstream demand for stainless steel, with August apparent consumption at 2.7529 million tons, a 4.16% month-on-month increase [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has seen a "four consecutive declines" trend, with a 2.51% decrease to 987,100 tons as of September 18 [4] - Cold-rolled stainless steel production has rebounded, with July production at 1.4625 million tons and August at 1.4829 million tons, while September production is expected to reach 1.5156 million tons [4] Group 4: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel futures are expected to continue a range-bound trading pattern, with 13,300 yuan/ton as the upper resistance and 12,750 yuan/ton as the lower support [5] - Factors such as rising raw material prices and steel mills' pricing intentions provide strong support for prices, while limited demand growth may hinder sustained price increases [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].