Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - **Information**: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - **Logic**: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - **Strategy**: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - **Information**: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - **Logic**: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - **Strategy**: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - **Information**: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - **Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - **Information**: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - **Logic**: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - **Strategy**: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - **Information**: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - **Logic**: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - **Strategy**: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - **Information**: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - **Logic**: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - **Strategy**: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - **Information**: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - **Logic**: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - **Strategy**: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - **Information**: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - **Logic**: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - **Strategy**: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton rose [49] - **Information**: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - **Logic**: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - **Strategy**: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]

Supply and Demand - As of July 3, the utilization rate of benzene production capacity is at 78.14%, with a weekly output of 433,300 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2] - The commercial inventory of benzene at Jiangsu port is 174,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 1.69% decline; however, it has increased by 144,000 tons compared to the same period last year, marking a 480% year-on-year increase [2] Market Outlook - Domestic facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, leading to a decrease in benzene load; however, overseas production is gradually increasing, contributing to an overall rise in Asian benzene load [4] - The overall supply-demand situation for benzene shows marginal improvement, but high absolute levels of inventory at ports and expectations of new production from Shandong Yulong and Hongrun limit price support [4] - The benchmark price for benzene futures contracts on July 8, 2025, is set at 5,900 yuan/ton for multiple contracts [4] - Trading strategies for benzene futures include a bearish outlook due to significant supply-demand pressures and expectations of a downward trend in crude oil prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures contracts at a base price of 5900 CNY/ton is expected to be influenced by supply-demand pressures, oil price trends, and downstream styrene market conditions [1][13]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of pure benzene is under pressure due to high domestic production and inventory levels, with new production capacity exceeding 2.4 million tons expected in the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - Domestic pure benzene imports reached 2.3756 million tons by May 2025, a 62.6% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by reduced demand from the U.S. and a shift in export focus from South Korea to China [5][6]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene is expected to weaken, particularly due to declining profits in styrene and other downstream products, which may limit the support for pure benzene prices [5][10][11]. Oil Market Impact - The oil market is anticipated to experience a downward shift in price levels in the second half of 2025, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors affecting supply [3]. - Concerns over U.S.-China tariff disputes and potential economic downturns in the U.S. may further weaken global oil demand, impacting the pricing dynamics of pure benzene and its derivatives [3]. Trading Strategies - The trading strategy for pure benzene futures suggests a bearish outlook due to significant supply-demand pressures and a slight premium of the futures price over the spot price [2][13]. - The market is expected to exhibit a Contango structure, indicating potential opportunities for cross-period arbitrage [2][13]. - The price spread between styrene and pure benzene is anticipated to narrow, reflecting the weakening profit margins in the styrene market [2][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range [3] - Egg: Low long [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the import corn auction continues, and the spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. In the long term, policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. The pricing logic is import substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. In the medium term, there is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. In the medium term, the supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Summary by Related Items Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated and consolidated. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.25% to 2363 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On July 2, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises were stable. The corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 to 209,951 hands. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 4, 305,964 tons of imported genetically - modified corn will be auctioned. On July 2, 38,000 tons of the planned 40,000 - ton corn auction were sold [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Import corn auctions continue, and the spot market is stable with a slight upward trend. Medium - term: The supply pattern is expected to tighten. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term: Maintain the range - trading idea. Short - term: Verify the upper pressure and find the lower support. The 2509 contract's 2420 pressure has been verified, and the short - term support is 2350 - 2360 [1]. Pig Market Review - The main pig futures contract rose sharply. The LH2509 contract rose 3.2% to 14,340 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 1.12% to 13,550 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the national average pig price was 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/jin. The early - morning pig price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. In May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million. At the end of April, the number of medium - and large - sized pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On July 2, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs was 0.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. On June 26, the average weekly slaughter weight was 125 kg, down 0.46 kg from the previous week. On July 2, the pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 375 to 450 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Short at high levels. Medium - term: Range trading. Short - term: Strengthen to test the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the long. The 2509 contract breaks through the first pressure of 14,000 - 14,100 and the second pressure of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract focuses on the pressure effect of 13,600 - 13,800 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated weakly. The JD2508 contract fell 0.67% to 3544 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.33% to 3678 yuan/500kg [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. The average price of old hens was 4.73 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. In May, the number of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in June was 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. On July 2, the egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 92 to 147 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. Medium - term: The supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the difference between long and short is large. It is recommended to watch more and trade less. The 08 contract runs in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and the lower support at 3480 - 3500. The 09 contract maintains the short - term long and long - term short trading idea. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [4].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on market conditions and trends. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a slightly stronger oscillation yesterday. With a focus on US interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, the tight supply of copper ore continued. London inventory decreased by 650 tons, and the spot was in short supply. The trading strategy is to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.73% yesterday. The supply side saw a slight increase in operating capacity, while the demand side had a slight decline in the aluminum product开工 rate. Given the positive macro - environment but potential downward risks in fundamentals, a cautious bullish view is recommended [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 1.26% yesterday. Supply and demand were both stable. With the spot price stabilizing and the futures price converging to the basis, it is expected to oscillate within a range, and a wait - and - see approach is advised [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract had a high - opening and oscillating performance on Monday. Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the spot price stopped falling. With supply contraction in the northwest and potential restarts in polysilicon, the futures price may have limited upside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed down 0.77% yesterday. Supply reached a record high in June, and demand was weak in the near - term. Inventory was at a high level. The near - term may see a slight rebound, but a wait - and - see or sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1][2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract had a high - level oscillation on Monday. Supply may increase, and demand is expected to decline in the third quarter. After the media's attention on the photovoltaic industry's competition, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract showed a weak oscillation. Inventory increased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively balanced but with a seasonal deterioration trend. The futures premium narrowed, and a short - selling strategy for the 2510 contract is recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply and demand were neutral, with a marginal strengthening in the short - term but an over - supply situation in the medium - term. The futures was in a contango structure, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply was relatively loose but improving. The futures was at a premium, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans showed mixed performance overnight. Supply was loose in the near - term and normal in the US in the long - term. Demand was seasonally weak in US exports but supported by bio - diesel policies. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [3]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price rose. Supply - demand tightened, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed down 0.22%. With Brazil's ethanol policy having limited impact on sugar production, the domestic market is expected to follow the weak trend of raw sugar. A short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated weakly. International supply conditions were good, and domestic inventory decreased. A wait - and - see approach with an oscillation - range strategy is recommended [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price fell slightly. Supply was marginally weakening but still high year - on - year, and demand increased in exports. It is in a seasonal weak phase, and attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [3]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was strong, and the spot price rose. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, supply will increase, and the price will decline [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed up slightly. The opening price of early - maturing varieties may support the futures price, but market expectations may change with supply increases. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract had a slight oscillation yesterday. Supply increased domestically while imports may decline. Demand improved marginally. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [6]. - **PVC**: The v09 contract closed down 1.3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory decreased. A strategy of closing short positions and selling call options above 4950 is recommended [6][7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is at a medium - low level, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester load decreased slightly. PX long - positions can be held, and PTA positive spreads can be considered in the short - term, while short - selling processing margins on rallies is recommended in the long - term [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract closed down 0.43%. Inventory in Qingdao increased unexpectedly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with short - positions held above 14000 and positive spreads of RU - NR held [7]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed down 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory accumulated unexpectedly. Selling call options above 1250 is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level and may increase, and inventory is at a low level. With a balanced supply - demand situation, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the oil price entered an oscillation mode. In the short - term, the price has limited downside, but in the long - term, it is expected to be bearish due to over - supply. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply may increase in the future, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed down 2.4%. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated at a high level. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and selling out - of - the - money call options above 1400 is recommended [9].

2025.06.30-07.04 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入红色量能区域第一周。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量217万吨，表观消费量220万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存560万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的多方保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 螺纹钢期货主力合约中线趋势进入红色量能区域第一周。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的分步买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为 ...

金融研究 2025年6月25日 星期三 国债期货 IRR1.44%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 4,065 亿元，货币回笼 1,973 亿元，净投放 2,092 亿元。 交易策略：现券近期维持供强需弱的特征，但后市供强需弱的格局有望改变：一是 6 月政府债到期 规模有所增加，政府债净供给节奏或趋平缓；二是 7 月保险长端负债成本有调低的可能；三是国内 市场风险偏好回归防御风格，债市配置需求或会提升。期货端，长端多头力量较强，或押注未来政策 利率进一步下行。建议短多长空，短线 T、TL 逢低买入，中长线 T、TL 逢高套保。 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 24 日，A 股四大股指大幅上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.15%，报收 3420.57 点；深成 指上涨 1.68%，报收 10217.63 点；创业板指上涨 2.3%，报收 2064.13 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.79%， 报收 978.71 点。市场成交 14,481 亿元，较前日增加 3,011 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+2.85%)， 非银金融(+2.68%)，商贸零售(+2.64%)涨幅居前；石油石化(- ...

金融研究 2025年6月24日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 23 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.65%，报收 3381.58 点；深成 指上涨 0.43%，报收 10048.39 点；创业板指上涨 0.39%，报收 2017.63 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.38%， 报收 961.49 点。市场成交 11,469 亿元，较前日增加 552 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+2.25%)， 国防军工(+1.97%)，煤炭(+1.68%)涨幅居前；食品饮料(-0.8%)，家用电器(-0.43%)，钢铁(-0.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,443/130/842。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 52、-31、-79、58 亿元，分别变动+151、+94、-67、-177 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 148.62、101.37、49.5 与 31.18 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-15.28%、-11.17%、-8.02%与-7.26%，三年期历史分 ...

2025.06.23-06.27 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约本周预计运行区间为2970至3100，建议关注2970一线的支 撑力度。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中线多方阶段趋势逐步形成过程中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢周度产量212万吨，表观消费量219万吨，主要钢厂库存182万 吨，社会库存563万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 建议密切留意新一轮多方阶段趋势酝酿中。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 现货企业可考虑10%比例的分步买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情 ...