Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on these varieties [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures price shows a pattern of being stronger in the domestic market than in the international market. The forward purchase of soybeans in China is still slow, and the supply pressure at present has not been transmitted to the forward months, with forward supply remaining tight. Under the high - operating - rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory has been rising for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis of soybean meal persists. In the short term, the supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oil market shows a trend of rising and then falling due to the decline in international oil prices. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil sector, indicating that the rebound of the oil sector reflects the energy attribute of oils. Supported by the positive expectations of biodiesel demand in the US and Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil and soybean oil futures prices remains strong. In the short term, the palm oil futures price may turn to oscillating operation due to the fluctuation of international oil prices [7]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the short - term and intraday trends of soymeal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trends are all oscillating [5][8][9]. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The positive export outlook of US soybeans boosts the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soymeal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soymeal futures prices dominates the market again, with futures stronger than spot, maintaining an intraday oscillation and slightly stronger pattern [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [8]. - **Core Logic**: The lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports US soybean oil futures prices, which continue to run in an oscillating and slightly stronger manner. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw soybeans and the linkage boost from the strengthening of US soybean oil futures prices, and is expected to continue the oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost palm oil futures prices, which have a continuous linkage effect on domestic palm oil futures prices. The domestic palm oil futures prices follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market, and the low enthusiasm of funds restricts the rebound space, showing a short - term oscillating and slightly stronger trend [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, with the implementation date possibly from late July to August 1st. COMEX copper rose 16% due to this news. However, the US has filled its annual rigid import gap for electrolytic copper, so the CL spread doesn't need to fully price in the 50% tariff in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether some countries get exemptions. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to the demand situation and consider far - month inter - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation for zinc, hold inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports was abolished, concerns about ore - end disturbances eased. Continue to focus on the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink [6] - Stainless steel supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10] - Lead prices slightly declined this week. Supply and demand are both weak in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price stays above 17,200 due to macro - factors [12] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance. Demand is weak, and the LME inventory is at a low level but a turning point for inventory accumulation is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng. The market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate doesn't recover significantly, the industrial silicon futures are expected to oscillate [18] - Carbonate lithium futures prices rebounded from a low level. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A significant downward trend requires a large - scale accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot inventory [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 50, the premium/discount changed by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons [1] - **Market Impact of Tariff**: The US has filled its annual rigid import gap for copper. The 50% tariff may not need to be fully priced in the CL spread in the short term. South American countries' copper exports may be affected, and the high - premium in Southeast Asia and Europe may decline. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,550 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are balanced [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 100, and the LME inventory increased by 2,750 tons [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,500, and the LME inventory increased by 708 tons [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [10] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the lead price slightly declined, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,850 tons [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in July, and it is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the tin price fluctuated widely, and the LME inventory increased by 55 tons [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance, and demand is weak [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by 100, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 43 [18] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng, and the market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the SMM electric carbonate price increased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 548 [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon and cotton are recommended to be held with a bullish mindset, and there are good arbitrage opportunities in iron ore [1] - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation and accumulation of positive factors. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [2] - The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract [2][6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the medium - term tight - balance pattern remaining unchanged [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside, while the medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged [6] - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in a range, and new orders can focus on the opportunity of selling call options at the upper edge of the range [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [8] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported by the expectation of anti - involution production cuts [8] - Steel prices are expected to see a slower upward slope, and the probability of steel futures prices returning to a volatile pattern increases [8] - Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, and strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - Soda ash prices will fluctuate, and a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 can be held [10][11] - Crude oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, with concerns about supply shortages easing [13] - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and a short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline, and short - selling call options on the 09 - contract are recommended [13] - Cotton prices are supported by the expectation of supply tightness at the end of the year, but attention should be paid to the impact of the off - season and other factors [13] - Rubber prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand [13] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the A - share market continued to fluctuate and adjust. The ChiNext Index rose sharply, but the Shanghai Composite Index weakened. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 1.64 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.48 trillion yuan). The communication and computer sectors led the gains, while the coal and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the losses [2] - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the economy showing an overall positive trend. Short - term incremental policies may not be introduced urgently. The market sentiment was boosted, and the trading volume of A - shares increased. The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation [2] Bond Futures - Yesterday, bond futures rebounded across the board. The economic growth is in line with expectations, and the real estate sector is still weak. The market's expectation of policy intensification has turned cautious [2] - The capital market has become looser, and the bond market has rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] Gold and Silver - The US CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, but core inflation was still lower than expected. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in July has cooled down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [2] - The economic data of China and the US show resilience, and there is a driving force for the convergence of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the money put options on the 10 - contract [6] Copper - Recently, domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly [6] - LME copper inventories continued to increase, and the contango widened. Domestic inventories are still at a low level, and the spot price has a slight premium. The short - term upward pressure on copper prices due to tariffs may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged [6] Aluminum and Alumina - Domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly. There is still uncertainty in US tariffs [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [6] Nickel - The supply of nickel ore and ferronickel has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The demand for stainless steel and ternary batteries is weak [6] - The imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market remains unchanged. Although there is some support from the Indonesian RKAB policy, there is currently no clear directional driver. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] Lithium Carbonate - The supply of lithium carbonate remains loose, and the demand increment is relatively limited. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [8] Silicon Energy - There are expectations of production cuts in the silicon energy industry. The inventory of industrial silicon standard warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the downstream of polysilicon shows signs of price increases. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported [8] Steel and Iron Ore - The economic data in June and the second quarter are good in total but poor in structure. The terminal demand expectation has weakened, and the contradiction in the steel market is not significant [8] - The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly and compress steel - making profits. Strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has limited increment, and the demand is good. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - The first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented this week. The spot market of coke is strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [11] Soda Ash and Glass - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the inventory of soda ash plants is increasing. The trading volume of floating glass is relatively stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [10][11] - It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast of global oil demand growth and economic growth in 2025. API data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The concern about supply shortages has eased, and oil prices will continue to be highly volatile [13] Methanol - The operating rate of methanol production enterprises has decreased to 83%, reaching the lowest level this year. The price trend of methanol depends on the arrival volume in August. A short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] Polyolefin - The domestic economy is developing steadily. The futures price of polyolefin has accelerated its decline, and the spot price has a limited decline. The supply will increase at the end of the month, while the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short - sell call options on the 09 - contract [13] Cotton - The domestic manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, and the overall commodity market sentiment is bullish. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight at the end of the year, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Cotton prices are supported by the supply expectation [13] Rubber - The terminal automotive market is in the off - season, and the demand for rubber is hindered. The supply of rubber raw materials is increasing seasonally, and the inventory at ports has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Rubber prices have limited upside space [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with supply exceeding demand. During the maintenance season of upstream petrochemical plants, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization declines, and new production capacity continues to be released. Overall, the supply side shows an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices and propane prices remain weak and are expected to continue this way, with weak cost support. PDH - made PP maintains a small profit. In the off - season, downstream demand shows no significant improvement, the operating rate remains low, with mainly rigid - demand purchases and insufficient follow - up of terminal orders [2] Summary by Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE oil - based production profit is 172.1 yuan/ton (+88.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 237.9 yuan/ton (+88.6), and PDH - made PP production profit is 192.5 yuan/ton (-38.7). PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report shows the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawing East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawing East China [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 133.0 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit is - 648.1 yuan/ton (-19.7), and PP export profit is 31.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports, but does not provide specific data [72][75][77] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 09 - 01; - Cross - variety: Short coal - based profits [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pork**: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate within a narrow range; in the medium - term, it shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Suggest selling at high prices [1][2]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, it will have a small rebound; in the medium - term, it will rise first and then fall. Suggest selling at high prices [3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it will oscillate upwards; in the medium - term, it will face pressure. Suggest selling out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [5][7]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 4900 - 5100; in the medium - term, the upside space is limited. Suggest shorting after the upward trend ends [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Supply**: There is a theoretical low point in supply from July to August, but long - term supply remains high. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of new piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, and the supply pressure from April to September 2025 will increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the slaughtering start - up rate was 25.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. Terminal consumption is weak [1]. - **Outlook**: There may be a price increase from July to August, but the high point may be lower than last year. In the fourth quarter, the price may fall, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [2]. Sugar - **International**: Overseas macro factors cause disturbances. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 420 million tons [3]. - **Domestic**: The sales progress is fast. The spot price has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar is positive [4]. - **Outlook**: Zhengzhou sugar will follow the small rebound of raw sugar. In the medium - term, the price increase is limited, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production in August by 548,000 barrels per day and may further increase by about 550,000 barrels per day on August 3. The U.S. production growth will slow down in the long - term [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., the refinery start - up rate has approached 95%, and gasoline demand has exceeded 9 million barrels per day. In China, the main refinery start - up rate is at a five - year high, while the local refinery profit is low [6]. - **Inventory**: U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and it will accumulate at the end of the third quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is upward momentum; in the medium - term, it will face pressure [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased [8]. - **Supply**: The industry start - up rate has decreased slightly, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year [8]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is expected to weaken, and export orders are decreasing [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Outlook**: The current price increase is mainly due to improved macro sentiment, but the upward momentum is limited [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures are currently in the process of bottom - building with oscillations. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in an upward channel, and the main force has a relatively obvious bullish attitude. The price of industrial silicon 2509 futures fluctuates between 7500 - 9100, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of finding the bottom with oscillations. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. The AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 futures fluctuates between 57000 - 67000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Trend: In the process of bottom - building with oscillations. As of July 11, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9450 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price in an upward channel, and the main force is bullish [6]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon 2509 futures fluctuates between 7500 - 9100, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: The price of industrial silicon was in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [10]. - This week's strategy: The price of industrial silicon is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Trend: In the process of finding the bottom with oscillations. As of July 11, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61500 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily line in an upward channel, and the main force is bullish [34][35]. - Strategy: The price of lithium carbonate 2509 futures fluctuates between 57000 - 67000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: The price of lithium carbonate was in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [38]. - This week's strategy: The price of lithium carbonate is in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [39]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43]

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 能化板块负责人：李国洲 13544503362 Liguozhou@cmschina.com.cn F3021097 Z0020532 专题报告 招期能化纯苯专题 2025 年7 月8 日 纯苯期货上市首日策略 ❑ 价格走势： 纯苯现货价格在 5850-5950 元/吨区间，当前纯苯处于"高供应、低利润、弱 需求"格局。下半年纯苯供需仍处于供需宽松格局，整体基本面偏弱。 上市价 5900 元/吨，平水当前现货水平，开盘后价格或稳定在 5700-6000/吨 之间。 ❑ 策略建议： 单边策略： 期货价格平水现货，存在"上市首日资金抢筹低估品种"的情绪驱动，可逢高 做空。 套利策略： 由于纯苯下半年供需处于宽松格局，纯苯月差大概率走反套格局。 ❑ 风险提示： 原油地缘政治风险，流动性风险。 1. 成本端：原油 Q3 有支撑，Q4 或逐步过剩 欧佩克+开启加速增产模式，预计每季度增产量将达到 50-60 万桶/天。下半年非欧佩克 增产也将集中释放。重点关注中东供应是否受到影响。 资料来源：彭博，招商期货 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 一、合约情况 1.合约定价：纯苯期货和期权（代码 AD）将于 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each commodity [2] - Different commodities are expected to have different market trends, such as some in a state of shock, some with upward or downward pressure, and some with specific trading strategies recommended Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PTA new device is about to be put into production, but PX supply - demand remains tight. Suggest monthly spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels [4][7][12] - **PTA**: Stop profit on long PX short PTA, and conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, and it is recommended to focus on monthly spread reverse arbitrage [4][12] - **MEG**: It is a single - sided shock market. Suggest basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage, and do not chase short on a single - sided valuation. Import is expected to be tight in August, and it is recommended to go long on a single - sided basis at low levels [4][13][14] Rubber - Rubber is expected to run in a shock state. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have changed slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly [15][16][17] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is under shock pressure. The cost side is weakening, and the supply increment is greater than the demand increment. The NR - BR spread may support the price [19][20][21] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to rise in a shock state with a downward valuation adjustment. The weekly output has increased, and both factory and social inventories have accumulated [22][34] LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be in a short - term weak shock state. The macro - situation has led to a premium retracement, and the supply pressure is increasing while the demand is weak [35][36] PP - PP spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. Futures are oscillating downward, and downstream demand is weak [40][41] Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures has rebounded due to the sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices. The short - term spot has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large, and the cost has increased [43][45] Pulp - Pulp is expected to run in a shock state. The spot price is stable, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the demand is weak [49][51][52] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market shows a trend of mixed rise and fall, and the downstream demand is not strong [55][56] Methanol - Methanol is expected to run in a short - term shock state. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has also weakened. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [59][61] Urea - Urea is expected to run in a shock state. The domestic market is supported by domestic demand and export, and the inventory is in a shock pattern. There is a multi - empty game in the short term [63][64][66] Styrene - Styrene is expected to be in a short - term shock state. Pay attention to the listing of pure benzene futures, and different trading strategies are recommended [67][71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is in a low - level shock state, with supply at a high level and weak demand [74][76] LPG - LPG is expected to have a short - term wide - range shock. The PDH and other开工 rates have changed, and there are many device maintenance plans [79][81][87] PVC - PVC is in a short - term shock state with pressure in the later stage. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [91][92] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session followed the rise in crude oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may increase again [95] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [95] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2508 contract is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is recommended to hold a light short position in the EC2510 contract [97]