Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent performance of lumber futures, which showed a slight decline of 0.18%, with the main contract trading at 825.0 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Lumber futures experienced a weak fluctuation, with the lowest point reaching 822.0 yuan and a current price of 825.0 yuan, reflecting a minor decrease [1]. - The overall market is characterized by an inverted relationship between domestic and international prices, with foreign pricing still on the rise, providing strong cost support [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures suggests a strategy of buying on dips for the November lumber contract, anticipating a recovery in demand as the peak season approaches, while monitoring macroeconomic policies and actual demand [2]. - According to Ruida Futures, the recommendation is to operate within a range, with support around 800 yuan and resistance near 830 yuan, as the supply and demand dynamics show marginal recovery [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Customs data indicates a slight month-on-month decrease in the import volume of lumber and softwood, while year-on-year figures show an increase, with New Zealand's lumber shipments also declining in August [3]. - The average daily outflow of lumber from ports has decreased, and the current inventory of softwood at ports stands at 2.86 million cubic meters, reflecting a reduction of 60,000 cubic meters, indicating a neutral inventory level for the year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main futures price of soybean oil declined. The exhaustion of Argentina's $7 billion agricultural product export tax - free quota for oilseeds and meal, high inventory of oils, and the expected increase in South American soybean imports contributed to this. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it's advisable to wait and see for the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. There is an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, the de - stocking process will continue. It's recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9800 - 9810 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9%. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to B45 before B50. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [3]. - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean Meal**: The main futures price of soybean oil declined this week. The supply is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal may strengthen in wide - range fluctuations. For an aggressive strategy, consider going long with a light position; for a conservative one, wait and see. The support for the soybean No.2 main contract is 3500 - 3540 yuan/ton, and the resistance is 3730 - 3750 yuan/ton. For the soybean meal main contract, the support is 2900 - 2910 yuan/ton, and the resistance is 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed production is almost set with an expected increase. Domestic rapeseed meal may de - stock if Canadian rapeseed imports are reduced. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support at 2320 - 2330 and resistance at 2552 - 2572 [3][5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of soybean No.1 first declined and then rose. The early - maturing soybeans in Northeast China have lower protein content, and there is a bumper harvest expected. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell, the price is expected to be firm in the short term, but the upside is limited. It's advisable to wait and see. The resistance for the 11 - contract is 3980 - 4000 yuan/ton, and the support is 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton [4]. - **Peanuts**: The new - season peanut planting area has increased, but the price has factored in the increase expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support for the 11 - contract is 7500 - 7510, and the resistance is 8020 - 8162 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The external market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is in a game between low channel inventory and new - season listing rhythm. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The support for the corn 11 - contract is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance is 2240 - 2250. For the corn starch 11 - contract, the support is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance is 2580 - 2590 [6]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has been weak. The industry is under de - capacity pressure. The futures price is expected to rebound in a range. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the 11 - contract is 13000 - 13500 points [7]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been weak. The egg production capacity is high, and the consumption is in the off - season. It's recommended for aggressive investors to go long on the 11 - or 12 - contract at low prices, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between 11 and 1 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: Different products in the feed,养殖, and油脂 sectors have different market logics and price trends. For example, soybean No.1 is expected to run firmly, while soybean No.2 will fluctuate widely. The report provides support and resistance levels and corresponding strategies for each product [11]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies**: The report presents the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various products in different sectors, including油料,油脂, protein, energy and by - products, and养殖 [12][13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Daily Data**: The report shows the import cost data of oilseeds and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero for different soybean and rapeseed shipment periods [13][14]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds and oils include inventory and开机率. For example, the soybean (port) inventory is 671.85 (7.50), and the开机率 of the soybean oil industry is 61.00% (- 1.00%) [15]. - **Feed**: The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of starch enterprises [15]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of pigs and eggs, such as the closing price of the pig main contract, the spot price of pigs, and the spot price of eggs [17][18][19]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts show Malaysia's palm oil production, export, inventory, import profit, and related price differences [27][26][30]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report presents charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill开机率, inventory, and trading volume [33][34][36]. - **Peanuts**: Charts include the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, crushing profit,开工率, inventory, and import volume [38][31][33]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of corn's spot price, closing price, basis, price differences, inventory, import volume, consumption, processing profit, and price differences with wheat [42][43][45]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts show the spot price, closing price, basis, price differences,开机率, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][51][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report includes charts of rapeseed meal's spot price, import rapeseed oil's spot price, basis, inventory, and related data [55][56][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts show the inventory, crushing volume, and related data of rapeseed and soybean meal [61][64]. Fourth Part: Feed, Breeding, and Oil Options Situation The report includes charts of the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [65][69][70]. Fifth Part: Feed, Breeding, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situations of various products, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [75][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The operation rating is not clearly defined in text, but it can be inferred from the star system that it may be a more bullish or bearish trend based on the context. The star rating is not specified in a way that can be directly translated to a standard investment rating, but the analysis shows a mid - term bearish trend. [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The text does not clearly state its star rating, but the analysis provides investment suggestions. [3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil: The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, but the rebound space is increasingly limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended. [2] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: The decline of fuel - related futures is relatively limited. The low - sulfur supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils when the spread is low. [3] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend. The price has bottom support and limited downward space. [4] - LPG: The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 1.87% overnight. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increasing operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil. The growth in ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel sector. The third - batch low - sulfur fuel oil export quota in 2025 is 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative quota has increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. The low quota utilization rate limits the low - sulfur supply pressure. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend as crude oil continues to correct. The factory and social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory - warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on East China's spot prices has eased, while the spot prices in South China and Hebei remain stable. [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Due to the high import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. The good chemical profit margins can maintain a high operating - rate pattern, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Crude oil prices maintain a medium-term bearish trend, with short-term geopolitical factors causing temporary supply fluctuations and limited rebound space. Consider a strategy combining high-level short positions and call options [2]. - The spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel oils is difficult to compress further. Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread on dips [3]. - There is still support at the bottom of the asphalt futures price [4]. - The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, with good support at the spot end. Monitor the peak-season stocking market [5]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.07% intraday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export ports affecting supply. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bp, providing short-term support to the commodity market [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The rebound in crude oil drives up fuel oil futures. Russian fuel oil shipments have declined, while domestic refinery demand and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel consumption have increased. China's low-sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased by 900,000 tons, but the utilization rate is low, and supply pressure is not prominent [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures are mainly oscillating. Recent data shows a slight reduction in refinery inventories and a 50,000-ton weekly decline in social inventories. The increase and subsequent decrease in warehouse receipts in East China help relieve the downward pressure on spot prices in the region. Prices in South China and Hebei are temporarily stable [4]. LPG - The overseas market remains strong, with strong import demand and geopolitical risks boosting sentiment. Typhoons in South China have reduced imports, while good chemical profit margins support high operating rates. The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and the spot end has good support [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG in the polyester industry is weak, with supply pressure gradually emerging and demand expected to decline in the fourth quarter [3][4][6] - For PX, the unilateral trend may remain weak, and it is recommended to hold the 11 - 01 calendar spread long and the 1 - 5 calendar spread short, and take profit on the PXN compression position below $220 per ton [3] - For PTA, the unilateral trend is also weak, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread short and 11 - 1 calendar spread long are recommended, as well as going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01/05 contracts [4] - For MEG, the supply pressure is prominent, and the unilateral trend is weak. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400, hold the 1 - 5 calendar spread short, and go long on L and short on MEG [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - PX valuation has declined significantly due to cost collapse and weakening demand. The Zhengshang PX futures forward curve has fallen back, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread has rebounded, with attention paid to the calendar spread short [16][22] - Factory hedging positions have increased, naphtha has strengthened, and PXN has weakened. The overseas oil product crack spread is relatively strong, and the gasoline crack spread in Singapore and the United States is positive [23][30] - The toluene disproportionation is in a loss state, and the toluene blending profit has strengthened. The PX - MX spread has declined month - on - month, and the short - flow plant operating rate has increased [44][49] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic operating rate this week is 87.8% (+4.1%), and multiple plants have restarted or increased their loads. Overseas, some Japanese plants are expected to restart [51][55] - In July, the PX import volume was 780,000 tons, and the Asian PX plant operating rate this week is 79% (+2.7%). South Korea's PX exports to China have increased [57][59] - In August, the PX inventory decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240,000 tons) [77] 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 calendar spread of PTA is in a short position. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined. The PTA spot processing fee has fallen to a record low this year [83][91] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA supply is gradually increasing, with an operating rate of 76.8% (+4%) this week. Multiple plants have restarted or are expected to restart, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance in October and November [93] - PTA exports increased from July to August. The inventory is at a low level, including total inventory, factory finished product inventory, and polyester factory PTA inventory [96][109] - The Morgan Qiankun PTA position has turned short again, and the short positions of foreign capital seats have increased [114][115] 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - The basis of MEG has increased significantly. The valuation of MEG relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to a record high this year [126][130] - The coal - based MEG profit has declined but still remains profitable, while the loss of naphtha - based MEG has widened to - 850 (-80) yuan per ton, and the MTO profit has deteriorated [133] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging. The domestic operating rate is 74.9% (+0.8%), and the coal - based operating rate is 76.7% (+2%). The coal - based load will remain high [138] - In July and August, the expected import volumes are 590,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and it is expected to increase in September. Some overseas plants have restarted or are scheduled for maintenance [140][142] - The European arbitrage window for MEG is gradually closing [143]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The downstream demand is in the transition period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat month - on - month. The overall demand follows up slowly. Multiple PE plants are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate decreases slightly, with the supply pressure expected to ease slightly. New PP production capacity is being released. The upstream production inventory increases slightly, the inventory in the middle - stream decreases, and the downstream rigid demand procurement increases. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH plants increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyze the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based and PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [16][19][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compare the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [26][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Analyze the import and export profits of LL and PP, including LL import profit, LL price differences in different regions, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and price differences of PP homopolymer injection molding in different regions [39][52][59] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP films, injection molding, as well as the production gross profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP films [56][63][70] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Include the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [72][76][81]

Supply and Demand - As of August 28, the overall operating rate of MEG was 75.13%, an increase of 1.97%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate was 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% [2] - As of September 1, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was approximately 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - In September, domestic supply will see both restarts and maintenance, with high operating rates for domestic ethylene glycol; however, imports may be adjusted downwards due to low output from Saudi Arabia's Sharq1 and delays in the restart of other facilities [3] - The demand is expected to increase as it enters the peak season, with polyester load gradually rising; overall, September is anticipated to have a favorable supply-demand balance, leading to a slight reduction in inventory [3] - The strategy suggests monitoring EG01 support around 4350 and considering low buying of EG2601 or selling put options EG2601-P-4300; also, a low spread on EG1-5 is recommended [3] Spot Market - On September 1, ethylene glycol prices showed a downward trend, with a noticeable strengthening of the spot basis; the market atmosphere was weak, and prices fell while the spot basis strengthened [1] - Afternoon trading saw spot transactions for this week and next week at a premium of 82-85 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with active trading from a few polyester factories [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices fell, with recent ship cargoes trading around 535 USD/ton, later adjusting to 530-532 USD/ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].