Core Insights - RPM International Inc. is a global leader in specialty coatings, sealants, and building materials, operating through various segments including industrial, consumer, and specialty products, with significant competition from companies like Sherwin-Williams and PPG Industries [1] Financial Performance - RPM is set to release its quarterly earnings on October 1, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.87, reflecting a 1.6% increase from the previous year, indicating stability in EPS estimates over the past 30 days [2][6] - The company's revenue is projected to reach approximately $2.05 billion, marking a 3.8% year-over-year increase, which is a positive indicator of operational strength [3][6] Market Valuation - RPM's price-to-sales ratio is 2.04, suggesting that investors are willing to pay $2.04 for every dollar of sales, reflecting confidence in the company's revenue-generating capabilities [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21.64, indicating that investors are paying $21.64 for each dollar of earnings, while the enterprise value to sales ratio is 2.40 and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 23.02, highlighting RPM's valuation in relation to its sales and cash flow [4] Financial Health - The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03 indicates a balanced approach to financing, utilizing both debt and equity, and a current ratio of 2.16 suggests a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities with its assets [5]

证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报（2025.9.22-9.26） 2025 年 9 月 29 日│中国内地 流动性周报 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com 欧阳琳* 研究员 +(86) 10 6321 1166 存单利率和 IRS 收益率上行 上周存单合计到期 9692.1 亿元，发行 7918.7 亿元，净融资规模-1773.4 亿 元。截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益率（1 年期 AAA）为 1.69%， 较前一周上行。本周存单单周到期规模在 1688.4 亿元左右，到期压力较前 一周减小。利率互换 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The central bank's supportive attitude towards liquidity will be maintained, and the loose state will effectively support the bond yield to fluctuate at the bottom of the box. The report maintains the judgment that the top of the 10-year Treasury bond yield this year is 1.85% [1][17] - The long - end of US bonds fluctuates between 4 - 4.5%, the short - end is easy to decline but difficult to rise, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [2] - The US economy is still in an expansion state, but actual demand may be insufficient, and economic growth is slowing down. The labor market has not fundamentally improved, and the Fed's理事鲍曼 calls for a firm interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [21][24][27] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: This week (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.26), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp from 1.795% last Friday to 1.799%. The central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation was discontinuous, but the open - market operation maintained a net investment, and the MLF was over - renewed by 300 billion yuan, indicating support for liquidity [1][12][17] - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's interest rate cut "boot landed" last week, the yield curve steepened rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate reached 3.8%, but the manufacturing and service PMI in September decreased. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, but the labor market has not fundamentally improved. Fed理事鲍曼 called for an interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [2][21][24] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The open - market operations from 2025/09/22 - 2025/09/26 are detailed, with a total net investment of 940.6 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds in two weeks are also analyzed [32] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, balance - treasure yields, vegetable price indices, commodity price indices, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are presented. The performance of various overseas indices and the yield changes of US bonds are also shown [59][60][72] 3. One - week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 78 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 196.051 billion yuan, a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan. The main investment directions are comprehensive, strategic development, and urban - rural infrastructure construction. 12 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and 2 provinces issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts [79][84][85] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 53.44 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 47.4454 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Shandong, and Hunan, and the top three active trading maturities are 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [94] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and regions from 2025/9/29 to 2025/10/3 are presented [98] 4. One - week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 418 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 435.522 billion yuan, a total repayment of 358.923 billion yuan, and a net financing of 76.599 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 23.029 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 99.627 billion yuan [99][100] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week are provided, with different changes in the interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds [111] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of each type of credit bond this week is detailed, with a total trading volume of 633.982 billion yuan [114] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bonds such as 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y national development bonds, and the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed certain changes this week [116][118][119][120] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all widened this week [124][126][131] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowing [136][140][143] 4.7 Trading Activity - No specific content provided 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - No specific content provided

Core Insights - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are lagging behind gold and stocks in reaching new highs, raising doubts about whether the bull market has ended [2][3] - A recent study by CryptoQuant identifies four key reasons for the weakness in the cryptocurrency market: Federal Reserve rate cuts, stablecoin supply, leveraged investors, and historical patterns [3] - The current liquidity tightness has left Bitcoin in a stalemate, with bulls not yet challenging historical highs, while gold and U.S. stock markets continue to set new records [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a historical pattern where institutional funds initially flow into high liquidity assets like stocks and gold during early rate cut phases by the Federal Reserve [3] - The total supply of stablecoins reached a new high of $308 billion this month, but the inflow to exchanges is lower than outflow, indicating a tendency among traders to hedge or take profits [6] - Liquidity is primarily distributed outside exchanges, including cross-chain transfers and private markets, rather than being actively used to purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum [7] Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The current market structure for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows similarities to a year ago, where price increases followed by liquidity not fully entering the cryptocurrency market led to corrections [5] - Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically lags behind traditional assets, often rising 12% in 30 days and 35% in 90 days after stocks reach new highs [9] - The upcoming expiration of $22.6 billion in options may significantly impact future price movements in the cryptocurrency market [13]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic market interest rates are showing a strong trend due to high demand for funds at the end of the quarter, with expectations of a weaker rate next week as short-term funding needs are likely to ease [1] Interest Rate Summary - As of September 25, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) overnight rate closed at 1.472%, a decrease of 4.2 basis points from September 18 [1] - The rates for 1-week, 2-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year periods are reported at 1.584%, 1.625%, 1.564%, 1.574%, 1.635%, 1.669%, and 1.679% respectively, with increases of 5.6, 4.4, 2, 1.8, 0.4, 0.7, and 0.6 basis points compared to September 18 [1] Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank has 18,268 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, and has conducted 17,016 billion yuan of reverse repos in the first four working days [1] - The central bank has 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing and has rolled over 600 billion yuan of MLF, injecting 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market [1] Future Outlook - The probability of weaker domestic market interest rates next week is high due to the release of short-term funding needs before the holiday and the central bank's liquidity injection through MLF, which helps stabilize medium to long-term rates [1]

昨夜美股市场一片哀鸿，芯片股集体跳水，科技巨头纷纷折戟。表面上看是美联储警告和政府停摆风险所致，但作为一名 浸淫市场多年的量化投资者，我看到的却是更深层的逻辑——流动性的微妙变化才是这场风暴的真正推手。 昨晚的美股市场可谓"血流成河"，费城半导体指数暴跌超2%，科技巨头们集体"失血"。鲍威尔的警告、政府停摆风险、高 估值担忧…这些理由被媒体反复咀嚼。但在我看来，这些都只是表象。 图中橙色柱体反映的是机构资金活跃程度。持续的时间越长，说明机构参与的积极性越高。这不是简单的买入信号，而是 告诉我们：机构在持续关注这只股票。 记得十年前我刚接触量化投资时，一位前辈告诉我："影响股市的因素很多，最根本的还是流动性。"这句话我记到现在。 大到美联储的货币政策，小到个股的资金流向，本质上都是流动性的游戏。 很多人觉得机构的选择神秘莫测，但随着量化技术的发展，我们已经能够窥见一二。量化大模型可以对交易行为进行精准 分离，还原市场的真实面貌。 这只股票在本周爆发前看似平淡无奇，但如果我们观察它的交易行为数据： 这种现象并非个例。让我们看看三个完全不同行业的股票： 「上海谊众」是创新药概念，「凌钢股份」是钢铁股，「隆扬 电子」 ...

1月底的"DeepSeek时刻"可以说启动了中国股市的广泛上升趋势。2月的民营企业座谈会、4月底开始的关系缓和，以及其他行业特定和流动性因素（如2季 度HIBOR压缩、香港IPO市场复苏、创纪录的南向资金流入）都为MSCI中国年初至今35%的涨幅做出了贡献。 虽然A股在上半年大部分时间落后于离岸市场，双重上市股票的A-H溢价一度降至6年低点（30%），但A股在2季度末开始追赶。沪深300自4月低点飙升 26%，推动指数年初至今涨幅达到15%。 从宏观角度看，市场对政策聚焦/执行加强的预期，特别是围绕合理化供给、改善商品和服务定价环境、缓解企业间无利可图竞争的预期，可能有助于提 振通胀预期，从而引发金融市场的再通胀交易。确实，10年期国债收益率自7月1日以来上升16个基点，表现逊于国内股票16%，同期债券向股票的资金轮 动明显。 其次，实体经济（以高盛中国活动指数为代表）与金融经济（基于本地市场股票回报）之间的分化似乎是全球现象。中国和美国的宏观市场相关性目前处 于5年低点，大多数发达和新兴市场的市值占GDP比率升至历史新高，市盈率重估贡献了后时代MSCI全球指数约70%的涨幅。这些表明"流动性"而非周期 性宏 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations with long-term bonds leading the decline, as the main government bond futures closed lower across the board [1][2] - The interbank bond yield rose by 1-2 basis points, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.35 basis points to 1.801% [2] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a gradual increase in liquidity after the mid-month tax period [1][5] - The short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate falling by 1.4 basis points to 1.413% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the urgency for the central bank to initiate government bond trading is not strong in the short term, but the increased bond purchases by state-owned banks reflect a relatively loose liquidity environment [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) observed increased volatility in the bond market due to funding disturbances and expectations of wider credit, with credit bonds performing relatively well [7] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.12 basis points to 4.147% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.2 basis points to 1.651% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all saw slight increases [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a competitive bidding yield of 1.6011% for 2-year bonds, 1.7430% for 5-year bonds, and 1.9881% for 10-year bonds, with strong bid-to-cover ratios [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity outlook is influenced by the upcoming quarter-end period from September 22 to September 26, with the current 7-day reverse repo balance at 18,268 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average of 6,382 billion yuan over the past four years, creating some pressure on liquidity [1][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on September 19 that it would adjust the 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which aligns with the monetary policy framework established on June 19, 2024, indicating a proactive stance to support liquidity during the quarter-end [1][10] - The report suggests that the recent press conference by the State Council did not lead to any significant changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance that is expected to continue to support the bond market [2][11] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by September 28, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds will reach 19,838 billion yuan, with progress at 99.19%, while new general bonds and special bonds are expected to reach 6,618 billion yuan and 36,613 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong issuance activity [3][39] - In the secondary market, the dynamic implied tax rates for local government bonds are above 3%, with the 10-year bonds showing a slight decline to just above 3%, suggesting that new bonds still have arbitrage opportunities and safety margins [4][16] - The report highlights that since September, there has been a persistent arbitrage opportunity between primary and secondary markets for bonds with maturities of 7 years and above, with a spread of 2-4 basis points, indicating potential investment opportunities [4][16]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities and market dynamics in the coming months [4][5][6][7][10][11]. Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high of $3685 per ounce [4]. - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 was 46.37, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early September, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises increased by 7.19% month-on-month [5]. - Price changes for key materials included rebar up by 2.18%, cement price index up by 0.62%, and coal prices showing mixed trends [5]. - The national capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.17 percentage points, 9.20 percentage points, 4.2 percentage points, and 0.07 percentage points respectively [5]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1268 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate for flat glass this week was 76.01% [6]. Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year high of 73.66%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.20 percentage points [7]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel up by 8.99% and copper down by 1.34% [7]. Subcategories - Iron ore prices reached a six-month high, with graphite electrode prices stable at 18000 yuan/ton [8]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20840 yuan/ton, down by 1.00%, with a calculated profit of 3559 yuan/ton [8]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate was 4445 yuan/ton, down by 1.55%, while tungsten concentrate was 274500 yuan/ton, down by 4.19% [8]. Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.07 this week, with various price differentials noted among different steel products [9]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 110 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 8.33% from the previous week [9]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 was 47.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [10]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1120.23 points, down by 0.45% [10]. - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 79.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.10 percentage points [10]. Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.10% [11]. - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 35.56% and 81.90% respectively [11].