1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - **Domestic**: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Coke**: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Coking Coal**: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **LPG**: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Pork**: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Rubber**: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].

关税和地缘政治，再次刺激金价大涨！ 6月2日，金价大幅上涨，现货黄金盘中涨超2%并突破3360美元关口。当日，港股黄金概念股也集体走强，潼 关黄金涨超18%，赤峰黄金涨近6%，中国黄金国际涨超4%，老铺黄金涨3.65%。 金价大涨，特朗普发出警告 高位震荡多日后，金价在6月2日大幅拉升。当天，现货黄金盘中涨超2%，价格突破3360美元/盎司；COMEX 黄金期货主力合约则突破3380美元/盎司，盘中涨幅也超过2%，并创下近三周最大单日涨幅。 从消息面来看，北京时间6月2日，美国总统特朗普继续就贸易法庭的关税裁决结果发出"警告"。特朗普在其自 创的社交平台"真相社交"上就法院和关税问题发表评论称，"如果法院以某种方式就关税问题做出对美国不利 的裁决（虽然这不太可能），那就意味着其他国家可以用针对我们的反美关税来要挟我们的国家。这将意味着 美利坚合众国的经济崩溃！" 此前5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗 普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。美国联邦巡回上诉法院5月29日批准特朗普政府的请 求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 有外媒指出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the industrial metals sector has shown a strong performance due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a significant recovery in market sentiment [1][27]. - Despite the recent drop in precious metal prices, the report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing risks related to U.S. dollar credit and the potential impact of tariffs on the real economy in the coming months [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 0.61% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [14]. - The industrial metals sub-sector saw a rise of 0.99%, while precious metals declined by 2.96% during the same period [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper are expected to remain strong in the short term due to improved export demand following the easing of trade tensions. As of May 16, LME copper was priced at $9,448 per ton, a slight increase of 0.02% week-on-week [2][33]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing upward price movement, with LME aluminum reaching $2,482 per ton, up 2.65% week-on-week. The report notes a decrease in social inventory, which supports price stability [3][38]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have also increased, with LME zinc at $2,692 per ton, reflecting a 1.43% rise week-on-week. Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [40]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have risen, with LME tin at $32,816 per ton, up 2.92% week-on-week. The market remains stable despite mixed inventory changes [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price of gold has significantly decreased, with COMEX gold closing at $3,205.30 per ounce, down 3.72% week-on-week. The report attributes this decline to reduced market risk aversion following the U.S.-China trade agreement [4][49]. - **Silver**: Silver prices have also seen a decline, with COMEX silver at $32.44 per ounce, down 1.48% week-on-week [51]. Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators show resilience, with April CPI growth at 2.3%, below expectations, and retail sales growth at 0.1%, exceeding forecasts. These factors contribute to the overall market sentiment and pricing dynamics in the metals sector [4][49].

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decrease in risk aversion due to easing trade policies, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,330.2 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.05% after reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce earlier in the week [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 6.02 tons, bringing its total to 946.27 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts fell by 30 kilograms [1] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongwu Securities highlights a recovery in market risk appetite following the easing of trade tensions and a shift in President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has restored some credibility to the dollar [1] - The article notes that despite the recent pullback in gold prices, the fundamentals supporting the current gold bull market remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities after price corrections [1]