Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the U.S. tariff policy has increased economic downward pressure according to Nakamura Toyoaki, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy is impacting global economic conditions [1] - Economic pressures are intensifying as a result of these tariffs [1]

白雪认为，在当前偏高的利率背景下，随着关税政策对经济的负面冲击开始显现，加之美国新一届政府 裁员和加征关税、削减支出等收缩性政策推行更早、更为激进，私人部门和金融市场对宏观走势的预期 明显转弱，叠加高利率环境下经济活动仍受到抑制，美国经济下行压力将进一步加大。尤其考虑到二季 度美国企业将迎来偿债高峰，维持高利率将显著增加企业的再融资成本和信用风险。(完) 白雪称，鲍威尔近期多次警告，加征关税政策可能带来"更高的通胀和更慢的经济增长"，且其影响可能 比预期更持久。无论从本次会议声明，还是鲍威尔近期的讲话来看，都意味着美联储短期内将维持"观 望策略"。 工银国际首席经济学家程实表示，从最新数据看，美国关税政策对自身经济增长的反噬作用已初现端 倪。一方面，劳动力市场边际降温，企业在政策不确定性下趋于保守；另一方面，实际通胀降温放缓， 通胀预期持续攀升。同时，美国一季度经济增长陷入萎缩，环比折年率录得负数。 程实认为，总体来看，美国经济正陷入自我强化的恶性循环：关税推升通胀预期，压缩货币政策空间。 高利率环境下面对财政与经济双重压力，特朗普政府对美联储施加降息压力，试图挑战货币政策独立 性，反而引发市场担忧，进一步推 ...

加拿大央行：信贷损失可能导致银行收缩放贷规模，从而加剧经济下行压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in the A-share market, particularly in the banking sector, raises concerns about the sustainability of the previous recovery trend and the potential for panic selling in the near future [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has shown a significant downturn, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank reporting noticeable declines in both revenue and profit [1] - The performance of bank stocks has been a critical support for market stability, but the recent downturn may indicate a shift in sentiment among investors [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors to Decline - A major factor contributing to the decline is the drop in earnings, which has prompted profit-taking among investors [1] - The ongoing slump in the real estate market and weak consumer spending have made it difficult for banks to issue loans, further impacting their recovery prospects [2] - Expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are putting additional pressure on banks' interest margins, making long-term performance challenging [3] - Economic pressures are increasing, as indicated by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49 in April, suggesting significant economic strain and a rising non-performing loan ratio [3] - The dividend payout ratio for banks has stabilized around 30%, but declining profits could jeopardize future dividends, undermining shareholder confidence [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The risks in the A-share market remain pronounced, with core sectors showing poor performance and economic data indicating a downward trend [7] - The impact of trade disputes since April has begun to reflect negatively in leading indicators, raising concerns about unexpected earnings declines in upcoming reports [7] - The rapid decline in the yield of China's ten-year government bonds signals a lack of clear recovery prospects for the economy, warranting close attention from investors [7]

日本央行行长植田和男：各地区的贸易政策可能会对经济产生下行压力。 ...

日本央行：家庭对支出的防御性态度可能进一步增强，可能会对经济产生下行压力。 ...