Group 1: Macroeconomy - The core of the "Great Beautiful Act" signed by Trump includes significant tax cuts for corporations and individuals, reductions in clean energy subsidies, and cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, which will increase the fiscal deficit in the future [3] - The act is projected to boost the actual GDP by less than 0.5 percentage points and has an inflationary impact of no more than 0.15 percentage points by 2026 [3] - Over the next decade, the combination of tariffs and tax cuts is expected to increase the net deficit by approximately $1.3 trillion, maintaining a deficit rate around 6% [3] - Current economic conditions, including low unemployment and moderate inflation, suggest that the U.S. government debt does not face immediate risks [3] Group 2: Strategy - The passage of the "Great Beautiful Act" is anticipated to increase bond supply, which may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields, potentially affecting market sentiment and stock prices in the short term [7] - Despite short-term liquidity disturbances, the overall credit cycle recovery and the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction trajectory remain unchanged, providing better buying opportunities for both U.S. stocks and bonds [7] Group 3: Quantitative & ESG - A real-time forecasting model driven by large language models (LLMs) is proposed to address the lag in macroeconomic indicators, allowing for timely adjustments in investment strategies based on economic changes [11] Group 4: Strategy - A forecast for the mid-year report indicates that A-share earnings growth may slow compared to the first quarter, but the second half of the year could see improved performance, particularly in the non-bank financial sector due to high market activity [14] - In the non-financial sector, midstream and upstream companies may face performance pressures due to price impacts, while sectors like gold, consumer upgrades, and tech hardware are expected to show structural strengths [14] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and encouraging births [17] - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March, with new consumption trends in snacks and health drinks likely to drive valuation increases in the sector [17] - The liquor sector is currently in a valuation correction phase, but the basic valuation has reflected pessimistic expectations, indicating emerging investment value [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax and spending bill passed by Congress is expected to exacerbate long-term debt issues in the U.S., despite temporarily alleviating short-term default risks [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and authorizes increased spending on border security and military, while significantly cutting Medicare and Medicaid [2]. - The borrowing limit for the U.S. government has been raised by $5 trillion, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, resulting in 10.9 million people losing federal health insurance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors are reportedly selling U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about declining demand and increasing borrowing costs [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded due to investor worries about fiscal health, indicating a potential long-term rise in interest rates [4]. - The market's reaction to the bill has been relatively muted, as the expansion of the deficit has already been priced in since Trump's return to office [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The bill is expected to contribute 0.5% to economic growth next year, but concerns remain that the debt burden may offset the intended economic stimulus [3]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards economic data and corporate earnings, with the debt issue becoming a secondary concern [5].

Employment Data Insights - Non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the forecast of 110,000 and the previous value was revised up to 144,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%[1] - Initial jobless claims have decreased from 250,000 on June 7 to 233,000 on June 28, a drop of 17,000[1] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government employment rose significantly, with state and local jobs increasing by 47,000 and 33,000 respectively, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000[2] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest in eight months, indicating weakness in private employment[2] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices fell to 45.0 and 47.2 respectively, indicating a contraction in private sector employment[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate's decline was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate by 0.09%[3] - Employment among foreign-born individuals decreased by 348,000, suggesting ongoing challenges in labor market participation[3] - Over the last three months, employment for foreign-born individuals has declined by a total of 994,000[3] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by only 0.22% in June, down from 0.39% in May[4] - Year-on-year growth in total weekly earnings was 4.5%, lower than the three-month average of 5.0%[4] - The slowdown in wage growth may indicate manageable inflation pressures but could lead to reduced consumer spending[4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for rate cuts decreased from 64 basis points to 51 basis points for the year[5] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 94% to around 70%[5] - Current labor market data does not support immediate rate cuts, as the overall employment situation remains stable despite some weaknesses[5]

报告摘要 美元还会继续弱吗？——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事（比如"去美元化"）大行其道，但宏大叙事难以提供对短期市场走势的有效指引。本文不谈长期宏观叙事，而是希望从我们观察 到的美元指数与其历史规律"锚"的两大背离出发，结合具体数据，重新审视当下流行的美元叙事。 （一）思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1 、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 基于美元指数两个背离 ( 长期与经济占比"脱钩"，短期与十债利率反向 ) 的思辨，我们认为，需要重新审视并修正"美元将开启持续单边下跌向 70-80 年代看齐"的 叙事。实际上，中期视角而言，考虑到美国相对欧日经济增速差或仍然占优、当下全球养老资管机构因美元波动率上行补美元空仓的交易 或 已比较极致，美元下 跌最快的时候或已过去，未来半年到一年或难言美元持续下行，反而可能需要警惕因仓位演绎较为充分带来的美元反弹风险 。 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the U.S. Treasury market and its impact on global asset classes, particularly in the context of changing perceptions regarding the U.S. dollar and its role in the global economy [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift from U.S. Exception to De-dollarization**: There has been a significant shift in market expectations from the U.S. exception narrative to a de-dollarization outlook, which has altered the correlation between stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This has diminished the traditional safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - **Decline in Correlation**: The correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has decreased, leading to a rebound in both U.S. Treasuries and equities, while the U.S. dollar index has declined [2]. - **10-Year Treasury Term Premium**: The 10-year term premium for U.S. Treasuries has reached its highest point in nearly a decade, approximately 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts will significantly influence Treasury yields and market demand [3]. - **Dollar Index Depreciation**: The U.S. dollar index has depreciated by about 7% this year, primarily due to the shift in market expectations and changes in global capital flows [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Global Capital Flows**: There has been a notable outflow of capital from the U.S. Treasury market, with funds returning to the Eurozone bond market, which has kept the 10-year Eurozone bond yields relatively stable (between 3.1% and 3.3%) despite volatility in other sovereign rates [6]. - **Foreign Investment in Sovereign Securities**: The rising interest of foreign investors in Eurozone, German, and Japanese sovereign securities indicates a shift in global capital allocation, which could have varying impacts on the yields of these securities [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...

Employment Data Insights - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the forecast of 126,000 but down from the previous month's increase of 177,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.24%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points month-on-month, while the labor participation rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 62.37%[3] - The household survey indicated a reduction of 696,000 jobs in May, with full-time employment decreasing by 623,000, accounting for 89.5% of the total job loss[3] Data Quality Concerns - April's non-farm employment figure was revised down by 30,000 to 147,000, and March's figure was revised down by 65,000 to 120,000, totaling a downward revision of 90,000 over two months[2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total downward revision of 189,000 in non-farm employment, representing a 36.2% adjustment, similar to last year's 36.9%[2] - Systematic errors in initial non-farm data are suggested, as companies with poorer conditions tend to report later, affecting data accuracy[2] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose by approximately 10 basis points, with the 10-year yield returning to above 4.5%[1] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has decreased from over 50 basis points to 44 basis points, indicating a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve[7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to delay any interest rate cuts until at least September, as employment data does not show significant deterioration[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-03 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4668.39 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投 资机会》 - 2025.05.26 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.26- ...