Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, with a notable decline following the U.S.-China tariff war [1][2] - The overall trajectory of nickel prices has shifted downward, indicating potential challenges for the second half of the year, driven by structural oversupply and slowing demand from the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains a key driver of nickel price volatility, with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts potentially improving market sentiment and liquidity [2][3] - However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose significant risks to the demand outlook for nickel [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The nickel industry faces severe oversupply, primarily due to the rapid expansion of low-cost production capacity in Indonesia, which has led to a significant imbalance between supply and demand [4][5] - The demand side is also weakening, with stainless steel production slowing and the growth rate of nickel sulfate for electric vehicle batteries declining, leading to a dual weakness in demand [5][6] Group 4: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure as the cost support shifts from marginal costs to integrated production costs, indicating a potential further decline in price levels [7][8] - The market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with nickel prices fluctuating between 105,000 and 130,000 yuan per ton, constrained by oversupply and cost dynamics [8][9] Group 5: Strategic Considerations - Industry participants are advised to focus on survival strategies rather than expecting a market recovery, emphasizing cost control and cash flow management amid ongoing oversupply [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted from capacity expansion to a focus on cost management, highlighting the need for companies to adapt to the current market conditions [9]

本周市场维持强势出现了牛市氛围的市场特征我们就此展开讨论上证指数突破后A股积极因素仍在继续累积A股大波段上行的线索正愈发完整清晰市场开始提前反映远期改善的投资机会本周我们重点关注两点变化第一反内卷政策加持下市场参与中日制造选股更加积极 基本面预期锚定提前向2026年切换短期有弹性的投资机会明显增加本轮反内卷去资本开支是确定的中游制造资本开支负增长将更深更持续对应2026年年中开始 固定资产增速低于明GDP增速供需格局改善的阶段也会更加持续这种情况下短期有阿尔法逻辑的个股改善逻辑很容易延伸到2026年基于2026年基本面困境反转的投资机会会提前反应强化了突破行情 另外 2025年居民存款到期重定价的高峰含股票投资的内在产品包括多资产套利 结构化产品固收价 红利险 量化产品都会有自然的增量也会强化四季度的固质修复行情但2025年的三季度可能还不是牛市能够一蹴而就的窗口基本面上国内经济下半年可能弱于上半年 国内政策重点是调节构稳增长力度有限另外公务2020年到2021年新发行高峰的产品尚未回到水位线上 居民存款搬家的资金正循环现阶段还不具备全面开启的条件二五年三季度指数中枢抬升后我们维持二五年四季度指数中枢再抬升二 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动但美国大豆产区天气良好丰产预期打压盘面，美豆 短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内大豆震荡回升，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆继续增产预期压制盘面，短期受中 美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4200，基差69，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，上周665.87万吨，环比增减少加4.43%，去年同期571.89 万吨，同比增加11.28%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand conditions. It is expected to have an overall range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of low valuation, short - term high supply, and cost support, with a mixed long - short situation [2][5]. - The global soybean import cost is currently stable, but there is a risk of unexpected decline due to potential trade war easing or macro - impacts [3]. - The global soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, while the domestic soybean meal market has cost support due to procurement issues related to Sino - US tariffs [5]. - The EPA policy has increased the annual operating center of the oil market, but there are still negative factors such as high production in Southeast Asian palm oil regions, and the market is expected to be volatile [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August [16]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the short - term rebound space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. - The pig market has a certain degree of support in the short term, but there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Catalog Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean price slightly declined. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans increased by 4% to 70%. The North American weather is good, and the potential impact of the trade war on exports continues to put pressure on US soybeans. However, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and recent sales of old - crop soybeans and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean meal futures slightly rose on Monday. According to MYSTEEL statistics, last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2954 million tons, and this week, it is expected to be 2.3803 million tons. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 886,200 (+64,000) tons, and the port soybean inventory was 8.231 (+0.343) million tons [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is currently oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where long - short factors are intertwined. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%. From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8%, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8%. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. Last week, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.298 (+0.04) million tons, mainly due to seasonal inventory accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high inventory was due to high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the center of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July - September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as volatile [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,817 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan or 0.12% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable compared with the previous trading day. According to the latest data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.6855 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,875 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan or 0.07% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of the week of July 11, the spinning mill's operating rate was 70.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 39.3%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.61 million tons, a 140,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new drivers [16]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few increases. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and the inventory in each link was generally small. Today, the egg price is expected to be stable, with a few fluctuations [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to continuous losses, the degree of production capacity clearance is still limited, and the large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The short - term rebound space is restricted by inventory. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large positions, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pig - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 14.65 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.17 yuan to 13.84 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume may remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is in a stalemate. Today, the pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has significantly rebounded, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and weight decline, indicating a seasonal supply reduction in the middle of the year. In the short term, there is support for the market, but in the medium term, there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货小幅回调 核心观点 今日国债期货均小幅回调。由于近期股市风险偏好回升，加上中美之 间关税风险缓和，国债的避险需求大大回落，近期国债期货陷入阶段性调 整。不过从中长期来看国内通胀表现较弱，内需内生性增长动能有所不足， 下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，国债期货的 下行空间较为有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货延续震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 上半年人民币贷款增加 12.92 万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加 1.17 万亿 元，其中，短期贷款减少 3 亿元，中长期贷款增加 1.17 万亿元；企(事)业单位 贷款增加 11.57 万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加 4.3 万亿元，中长期贷款增加 7.17 万亿元，票据融资减少 464 亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款增加 331 亿元。 邮箱：longaoming@bcqh ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美国大豆产区天气良好丰产预期打压盘面，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归 区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2810（华东），基差-166，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部 ...

据报道，日本大阪世博会计划于7月19日举行"美国国家日"活动。 为出席活动，美国财政部长贝森特将于下周访问日本。这将是贝森特走马上任后首次访问日本，也是4月 美日贸易谈判启动以来他首次访日。 日本《读卖新闻》10日援引日本政府消息人士的话报道，日本正寻求在美国财政部长贝森特下周访问日本 期间，与其就关税问题进行会谈。 但彭博社援引一位美国高级官员的话报道，贝森特此行主要是作为美国代表团团长参加世博会，不会安排 正式的双边会谈或贸易讨论。 △彭博社报道截图（题图中间为美国财政部长贝森特） 美国的"无礼"令日本感到"强烈愤慨" 美国财长即将访日的消息之所以备受关注，无疑与美日在关税谈判中陷入僵局密切相关。 自今年4月美国政府对外宣布实施所谓"对等关税"后，日本是最先与美方进行关税谈判的国家之一。 此前，日本政府一度较为乐观，认为今年2月"相对成功"的日美首脑会谈将有助于推动日美关税谈判早日 达成协议。日本首相石破茂也曾多次强调，日本在美国的巨额投资和战略地位，足以使其获得特殊待遇。 "和其他国家相比，日本是美国最大的海外投资国，我们为美国创造了最多的就业岗位。我们的基本原则 是与其加征关税，不如通过贸易来维护国家 ...

金十期货7月14日讯，7月USDA报告中性偏空，美豆震荡走低；国内5-7月大豆供应充足，油厂开机升 至同期高位，豆粕现货供应整体宽松，而当前下游补库减弱，现货维持震荡；中长期来看，美豆种植面 积减幅确定，后续市场将聚焦天气炒作情况，且中美关税将继续发酵，暂时观望。 （正信期货） 7月USDA报告中性偏空，短期连粕震荡运行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding new IPOs and sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Insights - The asset trading platform remains a clear direction for investment, with a focus on the expansion of various asset transactions and liquidity [3][10]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering this space [3][10]. - Recent upgrades in subsidies for e-commerce and food delivery platforms are expected to benefit sectors like coffee and tea drinks, as well as advertising channels [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.47% from July 7 to July 11, outperforming major indices [11][20]. - Notable stock performances include New High Education Group rising by 24.18% and Fenbi increasing by 13.44% [11][20]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure due to macroeconomic impacts, with notable stock movements including Samsonite up by 3.76% and Prada down by 0.99% [22][24]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains highly prosperous, with significant benefits from platform subsidies, while tea drinks also see substantial gains [26][27]. - Luckin Coffee opened 373 new stores, with a focus on both first and second-tier markets [32]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index saw a slight increase of 0.18%, with stocks like Beike and Dingdong rising by 6.34% and 3.85% respectively [31][36]. - The competition in the e-commerce sector remains fierce, with significant subsidy initiatives impacting profitability [31][38]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index rose by 2.2%, with stocks like NetEase Cloud Music and iQIYI showing positive performance [37][42]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $374.04 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively [41][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets in both the US and Hong Kong [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].