施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益主管Julian Houdain表示，目前，美国经济"软着陆"的可能性仍然最高 (60%)。然而，现在认为经济"无着陆"和"硬着陆"的风险是平均的，这与之前略微偏向"硬着陆"的评估 有所不同。这一变化主要反映对美国经济数据的预期：一旦公布，短期内可能仍然表现稳健。企业信贷 方面，施罗德投资仍然相对偏好欧洲及美国投资级别债券。但整体而言，仍认为美国投资级别债券估值 吸引力欠佳，相对地不看好美国及欧洲高收益债券。 基于不明朗情况，施罗德投资的宏观情境概率及对全球存续期和主要固定收益次资产类别的观点在11月 并未发生重大变化。 除了10月份美联储议息会议后市场预期的转变，美国债券收益率在最近几周波动有限。这种情况并不意 外，鉴于缺乏官方美国经济数据，同时已公布的亦缺乏明确方向。投资者密切关注美国劳动力市场，而 目前有关短期前景的证据仍然有限且矛盾重重。总体而言，预计未来数月就业增长将有所稳定，但由于 短期内不确定性较高，准确把握时机仍然具有挑战性。 欧洲大陆的宏观环境在过去一个月内变化不大。对欧洲央行(ECB)的短期预期并不抱太大期待，但预计 2026年初可能会出现更偏鸽派的通胀情况，通 ...

市场在会议前基本定价了"鹰派"降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上的发言以及准备金管理型购债 （RMP）的启动反而是超预期"鸽派"。因此，除了美元指数下跌之外，以美股和有色金属为代表的风险 资产价格普遍上涨，各期限美债利率均有所下行。除了利率政策外，交易者应关注新一任美联储主席在 资产负债表管理、去监管、提振房地产等方面的不同政策取向及对市场流动性的影响。 美联储12月如期降息，启动扩表 在12月议息会议上，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，与市场预期一致，今年累计降息75个基点。会 后公布的点阵图显示，美联储决策层的利率路径预测和9月公布点阵图时一致，依然预计明年会有一次 25个基点的降息。这意味着，明年美联储降息动作或较今年明显减少。 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布下调基准利率25个基点，至3.50%～3.75%，与市场预期 一致。至此，美联储今年已经连续3次降息，每次均下调25个基点，年内累计降息75个基点。自去年9月 以来，美联储本轮宽松周期合计降息175个基点。 12名美联储官员对利率决策投票时，共有3人投票反对本次降息25个基点，反对票比10月末召开的上次 会议多1票，这是自2019年 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The PCE index shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in September, but much of this is driven by rising gasoline and energy prices, while service prices have only increased by 0.2% [3][5] - Rent prices have decreased by 0.31% month-on-month in October, marking the largest drop in 15 years, attributed to an increase in new apartments and a slowdown in population inflow [5] - Consumers are tightening their spending, with a savings rate rising to 4.7% in September, indicating a cautious approach to spending due to concerns over job security and inflation [7] Group 2: Economic Growth - Economic growth is supported by two main pillars: AI investment and stable consumer spending [9][12] - AI-related investments now contribute over 40% to the GDP, with major tech companies like Google and Nvidia heavily investing in new facilities and data centers [10] - Despite cautious consumer behavior, spending among middle to high-income groups remains stable, preventing a significant downturn in consumption [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - Potential challenges for the economy include the risk of an AI investment bubble and rising government debt [14] - The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 175 basis points, indicating a flexible monetary policy approach to support economic stability [17] - The overall expectation is for a gradual adjustment towards a "soft landing," with inflation slowing and job security remaining relatively stable [18]

作为当前铜价上涨的主要原因，很多观点列举印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格矿山的泥石流事故。但 不仅仅如此，源自美国的三个因素加速了铜的资金流入，有观点认为2026年铜价将不断刷新 历史高点…… 作为国际指标的伦敦金属交易所（LME）3个月铜期货继续上涨。10月下旬刷新约1年零5个月以来最高 点的铜持续创出新高，12月8日涨至1.1771万美元/吨，创出最高点。回顾过去，铜价在新冠疫情冲击等 背景下经历了长期低迷，因此市场相关人士对当前的暴涨表现出惊讶。 作为当前上涨的主要原因，很多观点列举了9月发生的拥有世界第二大生产规模的印度尼西亚格拉斯伯 格矿山的泥石流事故。不过要解释目前的暴涨，仅靠矿石短缺似乎还不够。市场上有观点认为，源自美 国的三个因素加速了铜的资金流入。 第一个因素是降息带来的美国经济前景乐观论。12月10日的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决 定连续3次下调政策利率。与会者预测2026年将进一步降息1次。美国降息对经济的支撑，对于最先反映 世界经济动向、有着"铜博士"之称的铜来说也不无关系。 美国花旗集团在12月5日的报告中预测，在2026年4月至6月，铜价将达到每吨平均1.3万美元的水平。在 乐观情 ...

12月5日（周五），铜价触及历史高点，此前花旗银行上调了对这种工业金属的价格预期，市场同时受 到供应担忧以及对美联储下周可能降息的乐观情绪支撑。 上海期货交易所交投最活跃的铜合约上涨1.18%，至每吨91,860元。该合约在早盘交易中曾触及每吨 92,000元的历史高点。本周沪铜预计将累计上涨5.33%。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜合约上涨1.02%，至每吨11,567.00美元，此前曾创下每吨11,581.5美元 的峰值。本周伦铜预计将累计上涨3.28%。 该行表示，由于投资者押注美国经济将实现软着陆，宏观基金持续买入提供支撑；同时，矿山供应增长 无法跟上能源转型和人工智能相关需求加速的步伐，导致供应短缺扩大，这都将支撑价格。 该行补充称，与COMEX-LME套利相关的美国囤货行为预计将加剧市场紧张状况。根据LME周四的数 据，铜继续从LME在亚洲的注册仓库流出。 （文华综合） 在其他上海基本金属中，沪铝上涨0.95%，报每吨22,270元；沪锌上涨1.38%，报每吨23,155元；沪铅上 涨0.73%，报每吨17,310元；沪镍下滑0.2%，报每吨117,500元；沪锡下滑0.43%，报每吨317 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped to a three-year low, contrasting sharply with earlier weak ADP employment reports and record corporate layoffs, leading to a divergence in market perceptions regarding a soft landing for the U.S. economy [2] - The interest rate futures market is increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will ignore data noise and implement rate cuts, indicating a significant shift in macroeconomic logic where investors believe the Fed's policy response has transitioned from being data-dependent to a more preemptive easing approach to mitigate potential economic slowdown risks [2] Group 2 - On Thursday, the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.5 billion, with the largest net inflow into the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) amounting to HKD 2.61 billion, followed by WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) [2] - Conversely, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, totaling HKD 1.35 billion, followed by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) [2]

11月26日（周三）截至当前交易时段，美元指数报99.740，较前一交易日下跌0.07%，日内呈现窄幅震 荡态势，今开99.811，最高触及99.874，最低下探99.712。这一波动背后，是美国经济数据韧性与美联 储政策预期的博弈，技术面则呈现多空信号交织的特征，需从双重维度梳理趋势逻辑。 美元指数核心驱动力为美联储政策，美国经济数据与非美货币表现构成支撑。当前美国经济"软着陆"迹 象明显：三季度GDP增2.8%，个人消费支出增2.9%，服务业PMI连续12个月扩张，短期限制美元跌幅。 非美货币疲弱为美元提供支撑：日元受日银宽松拖累，英镑因英债与失业问题承压。但欧元区存变数， 10月HICP升2.1%，经济增速预期上修至1.4%，欧元回调空间收窄，将削弱美元动能。 支撑阻力明确：下方99.20为短均线共振支撑，破位或下探98.70；上方100.00-100.30为关键阻力 （100.30为9月来高点），突破可上看101.00。当前指数在99.70-99.90窄幅波动。 美元指数技术分析 技术面呈"短多中空"特征：5日、10日、50日均线多头排列支撑短期行情；年线下行，200天均线 （99.812）成多空关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, highlighting both positive and negative signals in the labor market, and suggests that the apparent economic prosperity may be fragile and accompanied by underlying structural issues. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, and far above the Dallas Fed's estimate of 30,000 jobs per month [7] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, and revisions to previous months' data showed a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs, undermining the strength of the September figures [11][12] - The service sector was the main contributor, adding 87,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality accounting for 47,000 of those jobs, linked to a rebound in consumer spending [18] Group 2: Structural Issues in the Labor Market - There is a structural imbalance in the labor market, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.4%, indicating an influx of 500,000 workers, but job growth lagging behind, leading to a higher unemployment rate [33] - The average duration of unemployment increased to 21 weeks, with 21% of unemployed individuals taking over 27 weeks to find new jobs, indicating decreased labor market fluidity [37] - Job growth is concentrated in low-wage sectors, which has led to a stagnation in overall wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [42] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The article suggests that the strong September data may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing structural issues and tightening credit conditions posing risks to the economy [53] - The Federal Reserve faces internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with hawks emphasizing employment resilience and doves focusing on rising unemployment rates [50] - Current expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting indicate a 60% probability of maintaining interest rates, reflecting uncertainty due to data gaps and internal disagreements [52]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September showed a surprising increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000, which has implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - Total non-farm employment increased by 119,000, with private sector jobs contributing 81.5% of the total [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, indicating a potential imbalance in the labor market despite job growth [4][22]. - The service sector was the primary driver of job growth, adding 87,000 jobs, with notable contributions from leisure and hospitality [9][10]. Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector added 47,000 jobs, reversing previous declines, while healthcare added 43,000 jobs, reflecting ongoing demand due to an aging population [9][10]. - Government employment increased by 22,000, primarily in education, as schools ramped up hiring for the new academic year [10][12]. - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 28,000 jobs, highlighting sector-specific challenges [3]. Data Adjustments and Methodology - August's job numbers were revised down significantly, with a total downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs over July and August, raising questions about the reliability of the data [4][14]. - The discrepancy between establishment survey (119,000 jobs) and household survey (251,000 jobs) indicates structural differences in data collection methods [18][19]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4%, with a notable influx of younger workers, but this also contributed to the rise in unemployment [23][25]. - Job growth was concentrated in lower-wage sectors, leading to a decline in average wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [29][30]. Economic Outlook - The strong job numbers may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with potential risks from tightening credit conditions and global demand slowdown [39][40]. - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with mixed signals from the labor market, leading to internal divisions on interest rate policy [36][38].

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, awaiting demand recovery and liquidity easing to trigger a main upward trend in prices [1][3][13] - The expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, along with the first interest rate cut, has stabilized overseas demand, but the main upward wave in non-ferrous metal prices has not yet started [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The performance expectations for various non-ferrous sub-sectors in 2026 are generally optimistic, with an expected increase of approximately 20% or more [1][4] - The anticipated main upward wave is expected around the end of Q1 2026, driven by interest rate cuts, the end of the US balance sheet reduction, and overseas reconstruction demand [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have normalized, reducing their impact on market sentiment, but the supply-side constraints are stronger than demand influences [1][6] - It is expected that most metals will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply constraints being more definitive [1][6] Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: Short-term trading is overheated, with valuations stretched. A potential adjustment is expected after geopolitical events cool down, but long-term prospects remain positive due to economic recovery and inflation [1][7] - **Copper**: Short-term demand is suppressed by high prices, but mining and smelting companies may reduce production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance from Q4 2025 through 2026 [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is recommended as a top investment choice due to its strong dividend attributes and resilience in profits, with a significant upside potential if prices rise [1][10][11] Small Metals Perspective - **Cobalt**: Inventory is decreasing, indicating potential for price increases [2][12] - **Lithium**: Currently under pressure but nearing a bottom in supply-demand dynamics, strategic positioning is advised [2][12] - **Tungsten**: Long-term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors [2][12] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment for the non-ferrous metals industry remains optimistic, with recommendations to actively monitor and allocate resources to various metal sectors to capitalize on future growth opportunities [1][14] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with mainstream companies' valuations returning to reasonable levels [1][9][14]