Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in non-farm employment growth in the U.S., with only 73,000 jobs added in May, and an average of 35,000 jobs over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration's average of 168,000 jobs per month during 2024 [1][2][5] - The recent employment data has raised concerns among economists and investors about the potential manipulation of data by the Trump administration, particularly following the dismissal of the BLS director [1][10][11] - The decline in immigration due to Trump's policies is expected to exert downward pressure on labor market growth, with projections suggesting that job growth could slow to as low as 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month later this year [5][6][8] Group 2 - The Biden administration's immigration policies have contributed to a record job growth of 16.1 million jobs during his term, averaging 336,000 jobs added per month, which is now reversing due to the anticipated decline in immigration [7][9] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for non-farm employment growth in 2025 to just 30,000 or fewer jobs per month, attributing this primarily to the decrease in immigration [8] - The potential changes in the BLS's statistical methods under Trump's administration could undermine the credibility of U.S. labor market data, which has been built over decades [10][11]

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%[1] Component Performance - Food prices showed a month-on-month change from 0.3% to 0%, below the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Energy prices decreased significantly, with a month-on-month change from 0.9% to -1.1%[2] - Core services increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 12-month average of 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose from approximately 88% to around 96%[3] Future Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest level since 1933[4] - Inflation is expected to rise by 1.5-1.8 percentage points due to current tariff policies[4] - Market consensus anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with Q4 PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2%[4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently in a delicate state, avoiding a hard landing but still facing underlying structural issues that could lead to future instability [2][6][7] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with initial non-farm employment data showing an increase of approximately 147,000 jobs, although subsequent revisions revealed a significant drop to only 14,000 jobs added [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, indicating that consumer income can support spending [2] GDP and Growth Dynamics - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly decline since 2022, with net exports negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3] - Consumer and private fixed investment grew by 3.0%, suggesting some internal economic support, but growth in durable goods orders and residential investment is slowing [3] Policy Environment - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase the budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years, with a stable deficit rate around 6% of GDP, indicating ongoing high fiscal deficits that may support the economy in the short term but pose long-term sustainability risks [4] - The marginal effects of fiscal stimulus may diminish in a context of tight monetary policy [4] Trade Policy Implications - Recent trade barriers, including a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 10% base tariff on nearly all imports starting April 2025, may raise production costs and weaken international competitiveness [5] - Such protectionist measures could lead trade partners to seek alternative markets, potentially exerting downward pressure on U.S. exports [5] Capital Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rebounded quickly after a 15% decline, recovering in just 15 trading days, the fastest in 75 years, driven by expectations of interest rate stabilization and fiscal stimulus [5] - Historical data suggests that similar rebounds typically lead to average gains of 6%, 10.5%, and 16.5% over the next three, six, and twelve months, respectively [5] Structural Challenges - The current economic state resembles a temporarily balanced situation, with underlying structural issues such as productivity growth slowdown, aging population, rising debt burdens, and international trade tensions still present [6][7] - Investors are advised to remain cautious, as superficial data and market rebounds may obscure the true economic resilience [6][7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the interpretation of the U.S. July non-farm employment data and the current employment situation, highlighting a slowdown in the job market and adjustments in previous employment figures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing from 4.12% to 4.25%. Additionally, the June non-farm employment figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since May 2020 [1][2]. - The three-month moving average for new non-farm jobs is only 35,000, with the private sector averaging 52,000 jobs, indicating a decline from earlier in the year. The education and healthcare sectors remain stable, contributing 50,000 to 100,000 jobs per month, while other sectors show weak growth [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The manufacturing sector saw an average job loss of 123,000, while construction added 23,000 jobs, indicating significant declines in cyclical industries. Government employment also recorded negative growth, with an average downward revision of 60,000 jobs from May to June [2]. - The labor market's supply-demand gap was revised from 698,000 to 201,000, suggesting a relatively balanced state despite the decline in non-farm employment numbers. The initial claims for unemployment benefits have been consistently declining since early June, indicating better-than-expected market conditions [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Despite the acceleration in job losses, the unemployment rate has not risen significantly, potentially due to immigration policies affecting labor participation rates. The labor participation rate for Black or African American individuals dropped from around 63% to 61% this year [3]. - The stability in wage growth and total income for U.S. residents suggests that a recession is not imminent, as the labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges [3].

Market Overview - On August 4, US and European stock markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both increasing by over 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 rising by 1.87% [1] - On August 5, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) opened with a gap up, rising by 1.56%, attracting over 160 million yuan in two consecutive days [1][3] Performance of Major Tech Stocks - Major tech stocks within the Nasdaq 100 ETF saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Facebook, Google, and Broadcom all rising over 3%, while Microsoft and Tesla increased over 2% [3][4] - The top ten components of the Nasdaq 100 ETF include Nvidia (3.62% increase), Microsoft (2.20% increase), and Apple (0.48% increase), with Nvidia holding a weight of 9.99% in the index [4] Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The market's optimistic sentiment is largely driven by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, despite recent economic data indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and the job market [4][5] - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248%, the highest since November 2021 [5][6] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to nearly 90% following the employment data release, although inflation remains a concern [7][8] - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be critical in determining the Fed's decision on whether to adopt a cautious approach or implement a more aggressive rate cut [8] Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the US stock market remains positive, driven by earnings growth and macroeconomic stability, with a recommendation for investors to buy on dips [8][9] - The Nasdaq 100 ETF is expected to benefit from the strong performance of tech giants and their anticipated capital expenditures, with a management fee of 0.5% per year, which is lower than the market average [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data for July significantly underperformed expectations and was subject to substantial revisions, raising concerns about the economy's resilience against tariff impacts [1][2] Economic Indicators - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, falling short of the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest adjustment since June 2020 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, above the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.117%, the highest since November 2021 [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded at 48, down from 49.5, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3] - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 is projected at an annualized rate of 3.0%, but the Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) only grew by 1.2%, reflecting a decline in internal growth momentum [3] Market Reactions - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield fell by 24.2 basis points to 3.682% [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5%, with dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains a concern, necessitating a restrictive policy stance [4] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new member, potentially influencing future monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data and events this week were dense, culminating in the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which dominated market trading. The disappointing and significantly revised non-farm employment data reignited recession concerns, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Under the baseline expectation, the U.S. economy is still in a soft landing phase, with short-term asset price volatility reflecting market concerns about the "slope" of the U.S. economic downturn [1]. Major Asset Classes - The non-farm payroll data dominated market trading, with recession concerns leading to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields. The disappointing new non-farm jobs and significant downward revisions to previous data reignited recession fears, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices to drop by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively. Over the week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%. The dollar index rose by 1.53% to 99.14, and spot gold prices increased by 0.78% to $3363 per ounce [2]. Overseas Economy - Short-term data amplified recession concerns, but the U.S. economy remains in a soft landing phase. Key U.S. economic data this week, including GDP (core GDP excluding net exports and inventory changes), non-farm payrolls, and manufacturing PMI, were weak. The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded 48, significantly below the expected 49.5. The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, better than the consensus forecast of 2.6%. However, the private domestic final purchases (PDFP) grew only by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was more due to a rebound from Q1 imports rather than strong internal economic growth. The July non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The July FOMC meeting was hawkish, but there were internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The decision to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5% was passed with a 9-2 vote, with two members voting against it, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Chair Powell noted that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains high, necessitating a restrictive policy rate. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide President Trump an opportunity to appoint a new member, potentially influencing monetary policy direction [4]. Overseas Politics - President Trump officially signed an executive order announcing the "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" rates for 69 trade partners, with significant reductions compared to the previous version. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. The announcement reflects the negotiation dynamics between the U.S. and its trade partners. The legal challenges surrounding Trump's authority to impose these tariffs may accelerate negotiations, but uncertainty remains regarding potential adjustments to tariffs in response to legal risks [5].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently in a soft landing phase despite short-term recession concerns, as indicated by recent economic data[1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is reported at +3.0%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of +2.6%[1] - The core GDP, which excludes net exports and inventory changes, shows a growth of only +1.2%, indicating reliance on external factors rather than domestic growth[1] Labor Market Insights - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest downward revision since June 2020[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[1] Market Reactions - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has reignited recession fears, leading to declines in U.S. stock markets and a drop in bond yields[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%[1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5%, with some members advocating for a rate cut[1] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates a balancing act between managing inflation and supporting the labor market amid rising unemployment[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. has introduced "Tariff 2.0," which lowers tariffs compared to the previous version, but uncertainty remains regarding potential increases in tariffs to expedite trade agreements[1] - The new tariff rates will take effect on August 7, 2025, impacting 69 trade partners, with significant rates set for the EU (15%) and Japan (15%)[1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro data and events this week were dense, culminating in the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which dominated market trading. The disappointing and significantly revised non-farm employment data reignited recession concerns, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Under baseline expectations, the U.S. economy is still in a soft landing phase, with short-term asset price volatility reflecting market concerns about the "slope" of the U.S. economic downturn [1]. Major Asset Classes - The non-farm payroll data dominated market trading, with recession concerns leading to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in declines in both U.S. stocks and Treasury yields. The disappointing new non-farm jobs and significant downward revisions to previous data caused a drop in U.S. stocks, while expectations for rate cuts increased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. For the week (July 28 to August 1), the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, and the 2-year yield dropped by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.53% to 99.14, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively [2]. Overseas Economy - Short-term data amplified recession concerns, but the U.S. economy remains in a soft landing phase. Key U.S. economic data this week, excluding ADP private employment, showed weakness in GDP (core GDP excluding net exports and inventory changes), non-farm payrolls, and manufacturing PMI, raising recession fears. The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded 48, significantly below the consensus expectation of 49.5. Notably, the decline in PMI was primarily due to a substantial shortening of supplier delivery times, indicating improvements in the supply chain amid declining demand. The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of +3.0%, better than the consensus expectation of +2.6% [3]. Monetary Policy - The July FOMC meeting was hawkish, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The FOMC decided to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5% with a 9-2 vote. Fed Chair Powell indicated that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains high, necessitating a restrictive policy rate. Two dissenting votes were cast by Waller and Bowman, who argued for a rate cut in July, citing the one-time impact of tariffs on inflation and the downward risks in the labor market [4]. Overseas Politics - Trump officially signed an executive order announcing the "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" rates for various trade partners, which may accelerate negotiations. The new tariff rates, effective August 7, show a significant reduction compared to the previous version. The announcement includes a 15% tariff for the EU and Japan, and a 10% tariff for other partners. The legal challenges surrounding Trump's authority to impose these tariffs may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates to expedite trade agreements, indicating ongoing uncertainty in trade relations [5].

Economic Overview - Investors are closely monitoring employment data as a key economic indicator and a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2] - The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable [4] - The average hourly wage growth was 3.7% over the past 12 months, slightly lower than previous levels [4] Employment Market Dynamics - Nearly 90% of new jobs in the past two and a half years have been concentrated in three sectors: government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare [7] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [7] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals remains at 1.1, consistent with pre-pandemic levels [7] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence rose in July due to easing concerns about the overall economy and labor market [9] - The percentage of respondents perceiving job scarcity reached a four-year high of 18.9%, while the perception of abundant job opportunities increased slightly [9] - The labor participation rate continues to decline, and temporary job positions are decreasing, signaling caution in the labor market [9] Future Projections - If non-farm payrolls increase between 120,000 and 180,000 with a rising unemployment rate, it may slightly increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [11] - A significant drop in non-farm payrolls below 100,000, coupled with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, could confirm signals for a rate cut [11] - Gold may benefit from these conditions as a traditional safe-haven asset, potentially recovering above $3,300 [11]