Workflow
美国经济软着陆
icon
Search documents
美国通胀低于预期,国内出口存韧性
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, with most industrial products rising and agricultural products soaring. The main reasons were the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran, the improvement of the Sino - US framework agreement, the resilience of the Chinese economy, and the lower - than - expected US inflation boosting the interest - rate cut expectation, which improved market risk appetite [3]. - Multiple factors may cause the commodity market to continue to rebound in the short term, including the Sino - US framework agreement, the improvement of the US economic outlook and the decline of inflation expectations, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Situation Analysis - **Sino - US London Consultation Reached a Principle Agreement**: From June 9 - 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principle agreement on implementing the consensus of the heads - of - state call and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China's exports may still have a window period for "rush exports" before July, but the export growth rate may decline in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **US: May CPI Lower than Market Expectations**: In May, the overall CPI in the US rose 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year and rose only 0.1% month - on - month, for the fourth consecutive month lower than expected. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September jumped to 75%, and the annual interest - rate cut expectation remained at about 45 basis points. It is believed that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy in recent years is still large, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the fourth quarter [10]. - **US: Confidence Index Rebounded and Inflation Expectation Declined**: In June, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 60.5, a month - on - month increase of 15.9%. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. The suspension of tariffs and the decline of inflation expectations drove the confidence to rebound, but there are still concerns in the future [13]. - **Middle - East Situation Escalated**: On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iran launched a series of retaliatory actions. The global economy was shaken, with the Brent crude oil price soaring 8% to $94 per barrel, the global stock markets falling generally, and the gold price breaking through $3400 per ounce [16]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data: Mixed Results**: In June, the new social financing was 228.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%. M2 increased 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased 2.3%. Overall, the government sector was still the main force of entity - sector financing. The central bank's actions to guide monetary easing and the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading may bring a favorable environment to the capital market [21]. - **Foreign Trade Data Interpretation: Exports Maintained Short - term Resilience**: In May, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year. The decline in exports was affected by the weakening of "rush exports" and the high base, and the decline in imports was dragged down by the decline in commodity imports. In the short term, exports are expected to maintain a certain resilience, but there will be pressure in the second half of the year [24]. - **Policy Tracking**: The release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood" may bring development opportunities to multiple fields such as consumption and elderly care. The acceleration of the "one - old - and - one - young" policy may bring development opportunities to multiple industries, including the maternal and infant consumption, elderly care service, and related equipment industries [25]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production End: Industrial Production was Generally Stable**: In the chemical industry, the production load remained stable, and product prices declined. In the steel industry, production declined slightly, and demand slowed down [34]. - **Demand End: Real - Estate Sales Increased Week - on - Week and Passenger - Car Retail Sales Increased Year - on - Year**: As of June 12, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased 43.96% week - on - week. In the first week of June, the average daily retail sales of the national passenger - car market were 43,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19% [41]. - **Price Trends**: As of June 13, most food prices fell this week. The average vegetable price decreased 0.05% month - on - month, the average pork price decreased 1.48% month - on - month, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased 0.25% month - on - month, and the fruit price decreased 2.01% month - on - month [42].
外汇期权市场暗示“抛售美国”或暂歇 美元抛压料迎短暂喘息
智通财经网· 2025-06-13 01:11
智通财经APP获悉,虽然美元指数交投于三年来低点,但外汇期权市场的交易员们普遍押注,这波席卷全 球储备货币的疯狂抛售将在未来几周显著趋缓——即美元抛压将迎来喘息,所谓的"抛售美国"悲观情绪也 将大幅缓和。 随着美元指数连续五个月走弱,外汇期权市场的悲观情绪在5月曾达到极端。如今距离美联储下一次利率 决议仅剩 6 天,期权市场释放出相对平静的信号。 衡量美元强弱的指数——"彭博美元现货指数"的看涨与看跌外汇期权价差的1周和1个月期限"风险逆转"指 标均在周三收于逾两个月以来的最低看跌点位。 "空头们可能还得再等一个月,才能在现实世界里看到他们预期的'美元末日图景',"来自Spectra FX Solutions的总裁多纳利强调。"6 月份的经济数据或许会表现不错。" 美元指数在因关税担忧情绪引发的"抛售美国"交易中可谓首当其冲,今年迄今已下跌逾 8%。1周和1个月 的风险逆转指标暗示未来仍有波动,但幅度不及 4 月、5 月时的极端看跌水平。 尽管如此,期权交易员们仍倾向于支付更高溢价来布局看跌美元的期权,而不是像2022-2023年那样支付 溢价来押注美元反弹的看涨期权,不过近期看跌期权相对于看涨期权的溢价已显 ...
弘则宏观- 隔夜白银大涨,贵金属行情怎么看?
2025-06-09 01:42
国际金价上半年已达 3,500 美元,超出年初机构普遍预测的 3,000 美元, 引发市场对后市走向的分歧,历史经验表明技术分析难以准确预测趋势 性拐点。 宏观因素如美元地位、货币超发和央行增持虽能解释金价中枢抬升,但 无法解释高频波动,未来金价走势关键在于对美国乃至全球经济趋势的 把握。 特朗普 2.0 政策可能导致美国经济硬着陆(利好黄金)、软着陆(仍利 好黄金)或通胀飙升(不利黄金),但总体而言,多种情景下金价仍有 支撑。 2022 年二三季度金价回调 20%主因市场低估美国经济韧性,误判为滞 涨而非通胀,当前美国经济可能出现硬着陆、软着陆或顺利软着陆三种 情形,前两种对黄金有利。 自 2022 年 11 月以来,地缘政治紧张、央行购金和美元体系衰弱推动 金价底部抬升,但短期仍需关注美元实际利率,特朗普政策不确定性增 加导致美元实际利率回落,金价创新高。 Q&A 今年以来黄金价格大幅上涨的原因是什么?未来走势如何? 弘则宏观- 隔夜白银大涨,贵金属行情怎么看? 20250606 摘要 今年以来,黄金价格的上涨并不出乎意料。去年年末,绝大多数主流机构对黄 金市场整体持乐观态度。因此,今年黄金价格一波超过 ...
重磅周来临! 法院会否叫停特朗普关税? 苹果WWDC携手美国CPI登场
智通财经网· 2025-06-09 00:26
Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently about 2% away from its all-time high, a surprising scenario given the market's turmoil earlier in April due to Trump's tariffs [1] - As of last week, all three major U.S. stock indices posted gains, with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 2.3% for the week, driven by strong performances from AI leaders like Nvidia [1] - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which alleviated concerns about a rapid economic downturn [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May is expected to test market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with economists predicting a rise in both overall and core CPI due to the impact of Trump's tariffs [4][14] - Economists expect the May CPI year-over-year to increase from 2.3% in April to 2.5%, while core CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.8% to 2.9% [14] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports from GameStop (GME), Oracle (ORCL), and Adobe (ADBE) are anticipated this week, with a focus on Oracle's cloud revenue and Adobe's AI-driven creative software revenue [5] - Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is set to take place, where updates on software products and potential new hardware may be revealed [17] Group 4: Trade Relations - The first meeting of the U.S.-China trade negotiation mechanism is scheduled, with expectations of significant discussions on tariff policies [3][6] - The U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could influence market sentiment depending on the outcome [7] Group 5: Political Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has led to significant market volatility, with Tesla's stock experiencing a sharp decline following public disputes [19] - Recent comments from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggest a potential easing of tensions between Trump and Musk, although uncertainties remain regarding their relationship [21]
这是市场最想看到的非农! 美国就业超预期增13.9万强化“软着陆”预期
智通财经网· 2025-06-06 13:36
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slight cooling in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, the lowest since February, and previous months' figures revised down by 95,000 [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above economists' expectations [2][7] - The report alleviated concerns about a potential recession, as it indicated that employers are cautious but not drastically cutting jobs despite higher costs from tariffs and a slowing economy [1][3] Group 2 - The service sector, particularly healthcare and leisure industries, showed strong performance, while manufacturing jobs unexpectedly decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [3][6] - Federal government job cuts totaled 22,000 in May, the largest since 2020, raising concerns about the impact of government spending cuts on the job market [6] - Despite large layoffs from major companies like Microsoft and Disney, job openings in April unexpectedly increased, indicating a mixed picture for the labor market [6] Group 3 - The non-farm payroll data was seen as favorable for the stock market, with predictions from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan indicating potential increases in the S&P 500 index following the report [8][9] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain intact, with traders betting on two rate cuts this year, the first likely in September [9][10] - Economists are closely monitoring labor supply and demand dynamics, especially in light of inflation risks associated with tariff policies [7][11]
需求强劲 金价走强仍可期
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-28 01:43
Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]
翁富豪:5.17美联储“鸽声”难挽黄金颓势 ,晚间黄金最新操作策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 15:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]
整理:每日全球外汇市场要闻速递(5月14日)
news flash· 2025-05-14 07:00
3. 美银调查:更多投资者认为欧元在5月被低估,英镑估值过高。 美元: 1. 美银基金经理调查:61%的基金经理认为美国经济会软着陆(4月为37%);26%的人认为会出现硬着 陆(4月为49%)。 2. 美银调查:5月减持美元的投资者比例为2006年以来新高,美元敞口触及19年低点。 3. 美国贸易代表格里尔:10%的全球关税是减少赤字的强大动力。 4. 巴克莱预计美联储将在12月降息,此前预期为7月。2026年3月、6月及9月料降息,每次25个基点。 5. 英国央行货币政策委员曼恩:美元仍然是主导货币。 非美主要货币: 1. 欧洲央行-管委马赫鲁夫:鉴于碎片化引发的冲击在规模、范围以及持续性方面的影响,货币政策应 对措施将需要谨慎调整。管委维勒鲁瓦:特朗普关税加剧了美国通胀,而非欧洲通胀,夏季可能再次降 息。 2. 英国央行首席经济学家皮尔:为确保CPI回到目标水平而采取的货币政策应对措施可能需要更加持 久。 金十数据整理:每日全球外汇市场要闻速递(5月14日) 4. 中国央行今日开展920亿元7天逆回购操作,利率为1.40%,与此前持平。 其他: 1. 印度贸易部长将于5月17日至20日访问美国进行贸易会 ...
KVBprime外汇平台:鲍威尔,又多了一个等待的理由
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 03:05
这一转变与美联储近期的谨慎立场形成呼应。上周美联储决议全票通过维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变,政策声明强调"通胀与失业率上行风险加剧"。主 席鲍威尔在记者会上重申,特朗普政府的关税政策不会干扰美联储独立性,当前利率水平将保持至经济前景明晰。 BK资产管理公司宏观策略师鲍里斯·施罗斯伯格分析称,经贸谈判进展与劳动力市场韧性降低了美国经济急剧放缓的可能性,美联储年内宽松力度或弱于市 场预期。他预计,若消费支出保持稳定,出口复苏将进一步支撑二季度GDP增速。 在中美日内瓦经贸会谈释放积极信号后,全球金融市场掀起乐观浪潮。美元指数强势攀升,黄金价格大幅回落,折射出市场避险情绪显著降温。这一转变不 仅为美国经济"软着陆"预期注入强心剂,更让美联储的降息路径再添变数——政策制定者或因贸易风险缓和而获得更多观望空间。 根据央视新闻披露的会谈成果,中美双方达成历史性关税削减协议:美方取消对华商品加征关税的91%,中方同步撤销反制关税;美方暂停24%的"对等关 税"计划,中方亦采取对等措施。这场波及近6000亿美元贸易额的关税争端,曾导致全球供应链紊乱与经济衰退担忧,如今随着双方重启高层对话,贸易壁 垒大幅消解。 市 ...
美国3月JOLTS职位空缺创半年新低,大幅不及预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 22:38
美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示,美国3月JOLTS职位空缺大幅不及预期,较上月显著回落,降至自去年9月以来的最低水平,显示出在经济不确定性加剧 的背景下,劳动力需求趋于疲软。 自2022年3月创下1218万人的纪录以来,由于美联储大幅加息导致需求放缓,JOLTS职位空缺在大部分时间里大体呈现下降的态势。此前几个月伴随着美联 储降息,JOLTS数据一度出现反弹。当前JOLTS职位空缺水平已接近2020年时的水平。 职位空缺与失业人数的比率在下降。衡量劳动力供需平衡的一个关键指标——每名失业者对应的职位空缺数量,下降至1.0,这是自去年9月以来的最低水 平。这一比例是美联储高度关注的。2022年3月时这一比例创下超过2的纪录水平。该比例在新冠疫情前为1.2,目前已经低于疫情前的水平。 分行业来看,大多数行业的职位空缺数量均出现下降,其中建筑业、交通运输业、私立教育和房地产业尤为明显。唯一出现职位空缺增长的是金融和保险 业。 不过,裁员数量有所下降,招聘活动保持稳定,且更多员工自愿辞职,在一定程度上缓解了职位空缺数据的疲软: 美国3月JOLTS职位空缺719.2万人,预期750万人,2月前值从756.8万人下修至7 ...