Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Market Data - **Treasury futures trading data on September 24**: All contracts showed price declines with varying degrees of fall and changes in trading volume, open interest, and positions. For example, TL2512 had a closing price of 114.070, a decline of 0.470 and a decrease of 0.41%. [6] Group 3: Market Review and Recommendations - **Market conditions**: Due to the central bank's net withdrawal of funds and insufficient support, the bond market sentiment was weak, and treasury futures fell across the board. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rose 2.2bp to 1.82%. [8][9] - **Funding market**: The pressure on the money market increased slightly, with a net withdrawal of funds in the open market. There were 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates mostly rose, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable. [10] - **Conclusion**: In August, the national economic activities weakened, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low. The policy may focus on expanding fiscal and credit policies and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors should be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and cross - quarter funds, and the approaching long holiday may trigger risk - aversion sentiment and stabilize the bond market. [11][12] Group 4: Industry News - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations. Some believe that policy rates and LPR may be cut by the end of the year. [13] - Deputy Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, expressing the hope to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations. [13] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world. The stock and bond markets ranked second, and foreign exchange reserves ranked first for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, financial risks were generally controllable, and policies were optimized to support the real estate market and resolve financing platform debt risks. [14] - On September 22, the National Financial Regulatory Administration established a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing, with over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "whitelist" projects, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units. [15] Group 5: Data Overview - **Treasury futures**: Including information on the main contract's inter - period spread, inter - variety spread, and price trends [16][17][18] - **Money market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates [31][35] - **Derivatives market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the varying market expectations and bond price fluctuations influenced by data, policies, and funding conditions at different stages [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 418.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [3]. - The funding environment shifted from tight to loose, with long-term bond yields slightly rising [3]. - The overnight funding rate (DR001) was around 1.44%, while the 7-day rate (DR007) increased to approximately 1.59% due to month-end factors [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed a stable sentiment in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.7975% and slightly decreasing to around 1.795% [5]. - The afternoon saw a peak in yields, with the 10-year bond rate reaching up to 1.82% before closing at 1.815% after the central bank injected an additional 300 billion yuan into the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [5][6]. - The article reflects on the bond market's struggles, contrasting the current situation with the previous year when the 30-year government bond yield was around 2.2% [6]. Group 3: Interest Rates Overview - The weighted rates for various repo codes were reported, with RO01 at 1.50%, R007 at 1.71%, and R014 at 1.84%, indicating changes in the market dynamics [4]. - The government bond yields for different maturities were detailed, with the 1-year yield at 1.3650%, 2-year at 1.5150%, and 10-year at 1.8150% [10].

【市场表现】 昨日受到央行呵护资金面的情绪利好，期债震荡回暖。展望后市，债市仍多空交织，一是市场风险偏 好、增量扩内需政策和季末机构行为仍有不确定性，二是央行是否重启国债买卖尚未有定论，三是季末 资金面波动预计放大。观察盘面，没有增量利空的话1.8%或为10年期国债利率运行的高点，但在尚未 出现强利多的情形下，短期利率下行也有限度，1.75%附近或有阻力，对应T2512合约预计在107.5- 108.35区间波动。单边策略上建议投资者以区间操作为主，回调至低位如果市场情绪有企稳迹象可以轻 仓试多，但需注意及时止盈。期现策略上，TL合约基差高位震荡，可适当参与基差收窄策略。 【资金面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 央行公告称，9月22日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2405亿元7天期 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 19, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 230 billion yuan maturing [1] - The total net injection for the week was 1,192.3 billion yuan, with 1,826.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing from September 22 to 26 [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions improved on Friday, with the overnight repurchase weighted average rate dropping nearly 5 basis points to around 1.46% as the tax period ended [3] - Overnight funding quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system also fell to around 1.46%, although supply was slightly insufficient [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at 1.68% [7] Group 4: Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed collectively lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.76%, the 10-year down 0.21%, the 5-year down 0.13%, and the 2-year down 0.05% [13] Group 5: Regulatory and Economic Updates - The central bank announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to better meet liquidity management needs starting September 19 [14] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the need for banks and insurance institutions to increase financial support for key areas and effectively prevent financial risks [14] - Recent data showed that tax revenue from the manufacturing sector grew by over 5% year-on-year in the first eight months, highlighting its significant contribution to overall tax revenue [15]

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Behavior - The liquidity situation is tightening, with an increase in funding prices. R001 rose to 1.50% from 1.40%, and DR001 increased to 1.46% from 1.36%. R007 reached 1.52% from 1.47%, while DR007 rose to 1.51% from 1.46% [1] - The central bank has increased its fund injection, with a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan through reverse repos this week, alongside a 600 billion yuan long-term reverse repo operation [1] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repos decreased slightly to 7.16 trillion yuan from 7.49 trillion yuan, indicating a slight decline in interbank leverage [3] Group 2: Certificate of Deposit and Treasury Yield - The yield on certificates of deposit (CDs) has slightly increased, with the 3-month yield rising by 1.50 basis points to 1.58%, the 6-month yield up by 0.61 basis points to 1.64%, and the 1-year yield increasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.68% [2] - The net financing from CDs rebounded to 134.4 billion yuan from a previous -468 billion yuan, with the average issuance term extending to 6.4 months from 5.9 months [2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened slightly, with the 1-year treasury yield down by 1 basis point to 1.39%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.19 basis points to 1.88% and 1.56 basis points to 2.20%, respectively [2] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decline significantly next week, with a forecasted net issuance of -52.2 billion yuan, compared to a net issuance of 2.674 trillion yuan this week [3] - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 287.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds had a net issuance of 30.9 billion yuan [3] - The total net payment for government bonds this week was 429.6 billion yuan, indicating a substantial outflow [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Date: 2025/09/19 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011]1290 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market should focus on the central bank's attitude. Currently, there is no clear right - hand side opportunity with high certainty in the market, and no definite negative news. The market fluctuates with sentiment and requires policy to set the tone. The operation idea is to buy on dips and take partial profits. The decline provides an opportunity for long - side left - hand side intervention, and attention should be paid to controlling positions and widening the buying intervals [2][4] Key Points from Different Sections 1.盘面点评 - On Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly in the morning, fell sharply in the afternoon, and rebounded slightly at the end of the session, with all varieties closing down. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds rose significantly in the afternoon. The open - market reverse repurchase was 35.43 billion yuan, with a net injection of 12.43 billion yuan. The money market eased, and DR001 fell to 1.46% [2] 2.日内消息 - The weighted winning bid yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.8321% and 2.1725% respectively, with the full - field multiples of 3.23 and 3.34, and the marginal multiples of 13.73 and 93.35 respectively [3] 3.行情研判 - Although the money market eased and the stock market fluctuated with shrinking volume today, the bond market did not benefit. After the primary issuance results were announced at noon, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond reopening was higher than the secondary market, which quickly deteriorated market sentiment and led to a sharp decline in the bond market in the afternoon [4] 4.国债期货日度数据 | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 19 | 2025 - 09 - 18 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.358 | 102.414 | - 0.056 | | TF2512 | 105.63 | 105.815 | - 0.185 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 108.065 | - 0.31 | | TL2512 | 114.88 | 115.68 | - 0.8 | | TS基差（CTD) | - 0.0347 | - 0.0528 | 0.0181 | | TF基差（CTD) | - 0.0542 | - 0.002 | - 0.0522 | | T基差（CTD) | 0.019 | 0.3044 | - 0.2854 | | TL基差（CTD） | 0.4458 | 0.5636 | - 0.1178 | | TS合约持仓(手） | 75499 | 76633 | - 1134 | | TF合约持仓(手） | 148476 | 150650 | - 2174 | | T合约持仓(手） | 249865 | 249992 | - 127 | | TL合约持仓(手） | 169501 | 169140 | 361 | | TS主力成交（手） | 35797 | 34264 | 1533 | | TF主力成交（手） | 92239 | 64176 | 28063 | | T主力成交（手） | 140197 | 93558 | 46639 | | TL主力成交（手） | 179539 | 129045 | 50494 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, rising risk appetite, increased expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates before the end of the year, and rising global trade uncertainties. Overall, the bond market oscillates between the expectations of stabilizing growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators show that China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly update) include a social financing scale of 433.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan month - on - month (+0.56%), an M2 year - on - year growth of 8.80% with no month - on - month change, and a manufacturing PMI of 49.40%, up 0.10% month - on - month (+0.20%) [10]. - Economic indicators (daily update) cover various aspects such as the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, R007, and others, with corresponding numerical values and changes [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than referring to figures about the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance situation of treasury bond futures is provided [15][16][20][26]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The money market is mainly reflected through figures on the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [29][35]. IV. Spread Overview The spread overview is presented through figures on the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [33][37][38]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures The two - year treasury bond futures are analyzed through figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][43][50]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures The five - year treasury bond futures are analyzed through figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures The ten - year treasury bond futures are analyzed through figures on the implied yield of the main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures The thirty - year treasury bond futures are analyzed through figures on the implied yield of the main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [66][72]. Market Analysis - **Macro - level**: In July, the Politburo meeting proposed a series of policy guidelines. On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. The China - US joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. The Ninth Plenary Session of the State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market. In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding - level**: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6% year - on - year, and the gap between them narrowed continuously. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. The government bond financing ratio was high, and the deposit increased by 8.6% year - on - year. On September 18, 2025, the central bank conducted a 487 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. - **Market - level**: On September 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.82 yuan, 108.08 yuan, and 115.62 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.04%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.17% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.011 yuan, 0.027 yuan, - 0.047 yuan, and 0.138 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Single - side trading**: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

【市场表现】 【操作建议】 昨日资金面延续收紧，期债小幅回调。展望后市，债市仍多空交织，一方面市场风险偏好、增量扩内需 政策和季末机构行为仍有不确定性，另一方面央行是否重启国债买卖尚未有定论。观察盘面，没有增量 利空的话1.8%或为10年期国债利率运行的高点，但在尚未出现强利多的情形下，短期利率下行也有限 度，1.75%附近或有阻力，对应T2512合约预计在107.5-108.35区间波动。单边策略上建议投资者以区间 操作为主，短期建议谨慎追涨。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.17%报115.620元，10年期主力合约跌0.05%报108.080元， 5年期主力合约跌0.05%报105.820元，2年期主力合约跌0.04%报102.410元 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，9月18日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4870亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4870亿元，中标量4870亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日2920亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1950亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 资金面方面，缴税虽渐近尾声，但银行间市场周四资金面紧势未改，临近尾盘方稍有缓和，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率升近3bp至1.5%上方。匿名点击 （X-repo）系统上隔夜资金报价早盘在1.6%上方，尾盘回落至1.48%附近；非银机构质押存单和信用债融入隔夜资金报价亦一度续涨至1.7%一线。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.39%。 （IMM） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.68%位置，较上日小升。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 普遍上行 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货收盘 集体下跌 // 债市综述 // （*数 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 487 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan due to 292 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 3.10 basis points to 1.5140%, while the 14-day Shibor fell by 2.60 basis points to 1.5810% [1][2] - The overall interbank pledged repo market continued to see slight increases, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rising by 2.6 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively [4] Group 2 - The money market maintained a tight stance, with overnight pledged rate certificates trading at 1.65% or weighted +10 basis points, while 7-day trades were between 1.53% and 1.55% [8] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 146.16 billion yuan on September 18, with 74 certificates issued [8][9] - The upcoming issuance of the 7th Central Bank Bill, with a fixed interest rate and a total issuance of 60 billion yuan, is scheduled for September 22, 2025 [11]