1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Glass Market - The tension in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, putting pressure on profits in all sectors and providing strong cost - side support for the glass market. - With the resumption of work by downstream and deep - processing enterprises, market demand has slightly recovered, and the overall trading activity has increased. Although the industry still faces de - stocking pressure, the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises has improved. - It is expected that the float glass market will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1060 - 1200 yuan/ton [12][13]. Soda Ash Market - Tightening Middle East geopolitical situation has led to higher international oil prices, which in turn has pushed up the price center of coal - chemical and soda ash - related products. - On the supply side, soda ash enterprises maintain stable overall operation and high device loads, with relatively abundant market supply. - In terms of demand, although market wait - and - see sentiment has increased after the new round of price implementation in some areas, the sales rate of glass enterprises has significantly increased, and there is still strong rigid demand for raw material replenishment. Most soda ash manufacturers have basically filled their orders for this month, and the short - term price - holding intention is strong. - It is expected that the soda ash market will continue a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term. Focus should be on the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak season and the inventory changes of enterprises in the main production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1180 - 1350 yuan/ton [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 58 yuan/ton; the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - **Demand**: In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In February 2026, the production and sales data of automobiles were 167.20/180.50 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.49%/15.20%; from January to February, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 412.20/415.20 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in national float glass factories was 7584.9 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 378.80 million heavy boxes; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 535.6 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 52.64 million heavy boxes [12]. 3.1.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of March 13, 2026, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of March 13, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread was 169 yuan/ton (+1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 114 yuan/ton (-4), the 09 - 01 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+3), and the open interest reached 1.5182 million lots [17][20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton [26][29]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 30, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 6.35 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 days; as of March 13, 2026, the operating rate of Low - e glass was 33.70%, a week - on - week increase of 14.40%. In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In February 2026, the production and sales data of automobiles were 167.20/180.50 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.49%/15.20%; from January to February, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 412.20/415.20 million vehicles [33][36][39][42]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in national float glass factories was 7584.9 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 378.80 million heavy boxes; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 535.6 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 52.64 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash Report 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1236 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 94.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 156.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of soda ash was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87%. The production of heavy soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons; the production of light soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons. - **Demand**: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - **Inventory**: As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in soda ash factories was 193.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 tons; the available inventory days were 14.54 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 91.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 yuan/ton; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 101.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton [56]. 3.2.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of March 13, 2026, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of March 13, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread was 106 yuan/ton (+11), the 05 - 09 spread was - 63 yuan/ton (-4), the 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton (-7), and the open interest reached 1.5182 million lots [61][64]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 94.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 156.5 yuan/ton. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of soda ash was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87%. The production of heavy soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons; the production of light soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05% [81][84][87]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in soda ash factories was 193.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 tons; the available inventory days were 14.54 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 91.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 yuan/ton; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 101.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton [91][94].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures inventory decreased slightly this week, but the port inventory, especially for softwood pulp, remains at an absolute high. The "Golden March and Silver April" period is unlikely to effectively boost papermaking demand, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 12, 2026, SP2701 was 5498 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.33%; SP2609 was 5302 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a weekly decrease of 0.08%; SP2605 was 5252 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5300 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.93% and no weekly change; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5150 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.98%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Foreign Offers and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 710 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton with no change; Chilean Star's foreign offer was 600 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 4911 yuan/ton with no change; Chilean Venus's foreign offer was 620 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton with no change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume and Shipment**: In December 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 72.5 tons, a 7.31% increase from November; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, a 23.40% decrease from November. The pulp shipment to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a 19.80% decrease [5] - **Domestic Production**: On March 12, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 23.8 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 24.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 12, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 237.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decrease; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 18.0 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of offset paper was 19.80 tons, coated paper was 8.30 tons, and the daily production of tissue paper was 28.76 tons [5] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's March softwood pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; the hardwood pulp Star's offer was 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand**: The pulp demand has been stable recently, the finished paper prices are stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of cotton provide some support. On the demand side, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" as downstream industries resume work, and cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level in the same period over the years. The USDA's annual report has lowered the global cotton production forecast by 3%, with a reduction in US and Chinese production by 9%. The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly tight, and there may be a tight balance if consumption continues to increase. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will still have some support in the short term, and investors can consider building long positions at low prices but not chasing high prices [6]. - For the cotton market, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mostly range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. For trading strategies, in the single - side trading, investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high; in arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15875, 15545, and 15595 respectively, with price increases of 100, 30, and 65. Their trading volumes are 3,239, 536,896, and 145,167 hands respectively, showing decreases of 2667, 153899, and 49194 hands compared with the previous period. The open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts is 16,007, 741,203, and 237,471 respectively, with changes of 678, - 2473, and 7727. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts, the closing prices are 0, 21735, and 21575 respectively. The trading volume of CY01 is 0, while CY05 and CY09 have trading volumes of 16137 and 34 hands respectively, with decreases of 4405 and 9 hands. The open interest of CY01 is 0, and CY05 and CY09 have open interests of 14724 and 63 respectively, with changes of - 248 and 2 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 115; Cot A is 75.75 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M is 73.98, up 0.70; the price of polyester staple fiber is 7450, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber is 12900, up 50. The prices of IndexC32S CY, Indian S - 6, and pure polyester yarn T32S remain unchanged, and the price of viscose yarn R30S is also unchanged [2]. - **Price Difference**: In cotton inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 330, up 70; the 5 - 9 spread is - 50, down 35; the 9 - 1 spread is - 280, down 35. In yarn inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21735, down 155; the 5 - 9 spread is 160, up 20; the 9 - 1 spread is 21575, up 135. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is (15875), down 100; CY05 - CF05 is 6190, up 125; CY09 - CF09 is 5980, up 70. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread is 3903, up 315; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread is 2906, up 261; the internal - external yarn spread is 5, down 41 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1593 yuan/ton·km, up 1.59% month - on - month. Due to increased transportation demand and relatively insufficient transportation capacity resources, the index rose slightly, and it is expected to show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term. In January 2026, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 0.88 billion square meters, up 1.51% year - on - year and down 7.259% month - on - month; clothing output was 5.49 billion pieces, up 20.3% year - on - year and down 7.02% month - on - month. The decline in textile and clothing output in January was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, with enterprises arranging employees' return home in advance and reducing production line speed. In December 2025/26, India's cotton yarn (HS:5205) export volume was 10.14 tons, up 5.01% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month. From August to December 2025, India's cotton yarn export volume was 45.6 tons, with 19.48 tons exported to Bangladesh (down 117.06% year - on - year, accounting for 42.94%) and 7.42 tons exported to China (up 94.76% year - on - year, accounting for 16.35%). In 2025, India's cumulative cotton yarn export volume was 108.19 tons, up 0.18% year - on - year [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: The current cotton fundamentals are supportive. Demand is expected to improve with the resumption of downstream production, and cotton sales are progressing rapidly. The USDA's report has lowered global cotton production, and the supply - demand situation may become tighter. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will have short - term support, and investors can build long positions at low prices but not chase high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In single - side trading, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high. In arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall quotation of the pure - cotton yarn market is stable with a slight increase. Low - count yarn and rotor - spun yarn face substitution pressure from imported yarn, and their sales are slightly sluggish. Although cotton yarn sales are good and spinning mills' inventories have decreased, due to the rising price of raw material cotton, the increase in yarn prices cannot fully cover the cost increase, and some spinning mills with low cotton inventories still face profit challenges. The production and sales of all - cotton grey fabrics are stable, with sufficient inventory of conventional varieties and continuous sales. The inquiry situation in the regional market and factories continues, and the seasonal orders are acceptable. Currently, the on - machine orders are sufficient, but the follow - up new orders are insufficient. Only the orders for thin fabrics in export sales are in good demand, and clothing orders are average. Currently, fabric mills maintain procurement based on orders, and their cotton yarn inventory is maintained at about 10 - 15 days [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for the option contract CF605C14600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 334.00, down 16.9%, with an implied volatility of 13.3%. For CF605C14200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 511.00, down 17.7%, with an implied volatility of 11.3%. For CF605P13800.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 60.00, down 34.1%, with an implied volatility of 11.2%. The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the volatility has increased slightly compared with the previous day [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The previous day, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13][14]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][19][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals indicates that the spot index of copper concentrate TC has weakened again, and the copper production in Chile has declined, along with a decrease in copper ore exports to China. Coupled with the increase in transportation costs due to geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply trend of copper ore still exists, and the raw material cost support logic is relatively strong. On the supply side, smelters are gradually resuming production, with a good recovery in the operating rate. Additionally, the pre - holiday raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, so the domestic refined copper supply is expected to continue to grow. On the demand side, the resumption of work in the downstream is delayed compared to the smelting end. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream demand will gradually increase. Moreover, the decline in copper prices has also increased the downstream's sentiment of replenishing stocks at low prices to a certain extent. Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of the supply and demand sides, the inventory of the copper industry continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of rising supply and demand and inventory accumulation, and the industry outlook is generally positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.4, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0232, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 101,010.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,044.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.50 US dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 192,390.00 lots, a decrease of 271.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 80,570.00 lots, a decrease of 3217.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 312,075.00 tons, an increase of 10125.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 425,145.00 tons, an increase of 33616.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 36,300.00 tons, an increase of 13900.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 326,327.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 592,489.00 short tons, a decrease of 1916.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 100,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650.00 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 100,945.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 395.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 510.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 101.90 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.51 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 56.05 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 5.62 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,230.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 380.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,930.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 380.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 315,793.95 tons, a decrease of 124206.05 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 68,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, an increase of 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 million pieces, an increase of 415345.50 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.99%, a decrease of 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.64%, a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 21.42%, a decrease of 0.0115. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.40, an increase of 0.0232 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In February, the production and sales of automobiles were 167.2 million and 180.5 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 69.4 million and 76.5 million respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities". The annual meeting will hold 13 thematic seminars and several closed - door seminars around multiple topics such as macro - policies and high - quality development. The latest US inflation data shows that the seasonally adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the market generally believes that the February data does not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to determine when the Fed will cut interest rates again. Leaders of the G7 countries had a phone call to discuss the latest situation in the Middle East and how to deal with its impact on the economy. UK Prime Minister Starmer said that countries should cooperate to deal with the economic impact of the conflict, welcomed the decision of IEA member countries to release strategic oil reserves, and reiterated the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. French President Macron said that under the current tense situation in the Middle East, G7 members should coordinate actions to promote the early resumption of smooth navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the policy expectations of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the time for interest rate hikes "may be closer than many people think". ECB Vice - President Guindos warned that financial market volatility may magnify the impact on the economy, and price risks are skewed to the upside [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market performance of various futures varieties on March 11, 2026, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, iron ore, asphalt, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It analyzes the influencing factors of each variety and provides corresponding market outlooks and suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 11, A - share three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 4133.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% to 3349.53 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2528.5 billion yuan, an increase of 111.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index remained strong on March 11, closing at 4704.50, a month - on - month increase of 29.74 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 11, the coke weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1731.7, a month - on - month increase of 14.6. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated in the range, closing at 1172.3 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the operating load of coking enterprises decreased, the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive. On the demand side, affected by the Two Sessions, the start - up of steel mills and the output of molten iron decreased. For coking coal, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the start - up of mines and coal washing plants increased. The start - up of downstream coking enterprises decreased slightly, the coking coal inventory continued to decline, the coke inventory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive [4]. Sugar - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the US sugar oscillated and closed lower on Tuesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar, the downward adjustment of spot quotes, and the expected firmness of crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, the contract continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. The European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon may form in the equator and the eastern Pacific in May and strengthen in August. The probability of a super El Niño phenomenon is 22%, the probability of a "strong" El Niño phenomenon is 80%, and the probability of a "medium - intensity" El Niño phenomenon is as high as 98% [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and showed an oscillating trend, closing slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. According to customs data, from January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In February alone, the import volume was 601,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - On March 11, the palm oil futures continued to oscillate at a high level, with the price running within the previous trading day's price range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9562, the lowest price was 9330, and the closing price was 9526, a 0.68% increase from the previous trading day. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and the output increased by 1.55% month - on - month [4][5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on March 11, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1214.25 cents per bushel, a 0.91% increase. The US Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for the end - of - season supply of US soybeans in the February supply and demand report, slightly lowered the global supply outlook, but still predicted the Brazilian soybean output at 180 million tons and lowered the Argentine soybean output forecast from 4.85 million tons last month to 4.8 million tons. More than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested, and the export capacity will increase rapidly. In the domestic market, on March 11, the main M2605 contract of soybean meal closed at 3068 yuan per ton, a 3.2% increase. As of last weekend, the total domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons week - on - week. The Middle East conflict has led to blocked international shipping, increased logistics costs, rising shipping freight and costs of imported soybeans in China, which support the domestic soybean meal price. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America, the progress of the Middle East situation, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On March 11, the main contract LH2605 of live pigs closed at 11,170 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease. On the supply side, the current supply is relatively loose. The increase in the slaughter of large pigs previously held back and the increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms, combined with the high frozen product inventory, result in sufficient market supply. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction is still at a high level, the production capacity base is large, and combined with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continues to be loose. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption enters the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, which has limited support for pig prices. Overall, the live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of sows capable of reproduction reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101,150 yuan per ton, opening high and closing low, remaining the same as the previous trading day's settlement price. It oscillated narrowly around 101,000 - 101,930 yuan per ton, holding the 100,000 - yuan integer mark and showing strong resistance to decline. The trading volume was 75,900 lots, and the open interest was 193,000. The sentiment of funds tended to be stable. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101,320 yuan per ton, a premium of 170 yuan per ton over the main futures price. The sentiment of holders to hold up prices was strong, and downstream rigid - demand purchases supported the price. The average spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 101,630 yuan per ton, and the spot discount continued to narrow, with the willingness to receive goods increasing. The SHFE copper inventory was 425,100 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous period, showing a trend of inventory accumulation; the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 319,700 tons, with an increase of 1,759 tons yesterday, and the available circulating supply was tight. The LME copper inventory was 302,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous period. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, the resumption of production in the smelting end is advancing, and the output in March is expected to reach a record high; the resumption of work in the downstream is marginally strengthening, and the expected "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season boosts demand. It is necessary to focus on the replenishment sentiment of the downstream and the impact of macro data [5]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,490 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 202 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises have fully resumed work after the Spring Festival and entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. Iron Ore - On March 11, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed up, with a 0.9% increase and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the arrivals increased, the port inventory was at a historical high, and recently affected by environmental protection, production restriction, and emission reduction, the molten iron output decreased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 11, the main contract 2604 of asphalt oscillated and rose, with a 1.07% increase and a closing price of 3874 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipments have also increased month - on - month. Recently, the geopolitical conflict has led to intensified price fluctuations at the cost end, and the short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Logs - The main contract 2605 of logs opened at 790 on Wednesday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 794.5, and a closing price of 790, with a daily reduction of 580 lots. On March 11, the spot market price of logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. According to customs data, the import of logs from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of spot - end prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On March 11, rb2605 closed at 3115 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3269 yuan per ton. In March, due to the relatively slow resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the recovery of steel demand is moderate. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in international energy prices have a certain impact on the domestic raw fuel market. Since the domestic coking coal resources are generally sufficient, the coking coal market has been oscillating recently. Affected by the increase in shipping freight and the contraction of the supply side, the iron ore price has been oscillating strongly this week, and the cost has a certain support for the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate [6]. Alumina - On March 11, ao2605 closed at 2869 yuan per ton. In China, although some roasting production capacities in Guizhou have failed and reduced production, and the sharp rise in caustic soda prices has pushed up costs, driving the futures to rise in the short term, the overall operating rate remains at a high level, and new production capacities such as Fangchenggang and Guangtou are about to be released, with a strong expectation of supply increase. After the Spring Festival, the logistics recovery and the improvement of shipping efficiency have promoted the continuous accumulation of raw material inventories in stations, delivery warehouses, and aluminum plants. This week, imported and domestic trade ships at northern ports have arrived in a concentrated manner, and the port inventory has increased significantly, highlighting the pressure of visible inventory. In the现货 market, downstream electrolytic aluminum plants adhere to on - demand procurement, holders' quotes remain stable, the market liquidity is average, and the trading atmosphere is dull [6]. Aluminum - On March 11, al2604 closed at 25,215 yuan per ton. In China, an important meeting was held, and the Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policy will continue to adhere to a more proactive tone, and the market is concerned about subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the ratio of molten aluminum is relatively low, the backlogged and in - transit supplies continue to be delivered, the social inventory pressure remains high, and the warehousing rhythm slows down. On the demand side, there is a strong fear of high prices, the rebound of aluminum prices suppresses demand, the downstream start - up recovery is limited, and the support for the spot is limited [6].

研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15655 | -5 | 5,535 | 2847 | 14,642 | 1075 | | CF05合约 | 15285 | -10 | 912,981 | 623052 | 749,561 | -15519 | | CF09合约 | 15340 | -5 | 262,728 | 188225 | 225,053 | 9964 | | CY01合约 | 20250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 21280 | 75 | 24053 | 14667 | 14518 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The copper industry is in a stage of rising supply and demand and inventory accumulation, with overall positive industry expectations. In terms of options, the market sentiment is bullish, and implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is near the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly contracting. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 101,520 yuan/ton, up 1,330 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,120 dollars/ton, up 166 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 194,900 lots, down 4,957 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,319 lots, down 2,433 lots. LME copper inventory was 294,250 tons, up 9,925 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 425,145 tons, up 33,616 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 13,125 tons, up 1,650 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants were 319,655 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory was 596,438 short tons, down 1,500 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 101,405 yuan/ton, up 1,925 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 101,535 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 115 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 67.22 dollars/ton, down 22.36 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's TC was - 56.05 dollars/kiloton, down 5.62 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 91,810 yuan/metal ton, up 1,150 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 92,510 yuan/metal ton, up 1,150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 315,793.95 tons, down 124,206.05 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 67,190 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid from Jiangxi Copper was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,807,345.5 million pieces, up 415,345.5 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 30%, down 4.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 35.34%, down 0.71%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 24.44%, up 0.0189; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio was 1.32, down 0.0388 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months. The Iran conflict severely hit the eurozone's economic growth expectations, and investor confidence declined significantly. The eurozone Sentix confidence index in March fell 7.3 points to - 3.1. US President Trump said that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as energy prices, weather, and supply - demand relationships. Different soft commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose and then fell, driven by energy and overall commodity strength. Spot basis is stable, and spot trading is average. Domestic commercial inventory is well - digested, and the expectation of tight supply continues. Short - term demand feedback is average. High - combed yarn orders are good, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season is unfavorable for sugarcane growth, and the sugar - making ratio is expected to decline in the next season, reducing sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. As of February 28, 2025/26, Guangxi's sugar production and sales progress is slow, with a significant decline in sales due to bearish sentiment. Production progress is slow despite a strong increase expectation. Temporarily wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The spot price is stable. After the festival, the procurement enthusiasm in the northwest产区 has increased, and the shipment has accelerated. The inventory in cold storage has decreased year - on - year, providing strong support for the spot price. The trading focus is on the demand side. In Shandong, the quality is poor but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of hoarding is strong, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Temporarily wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR are highly volatile, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price has continued to rise sharply. The supply of global natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has decreased. The domestic tire operating rate has continued to rise significantly. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, the social inventory of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the upstream butadiene port inventory has increased. Geopolitical risks have increased, with cost - driven factors, domestic demand is accelerating recovery, and external demand is temporarily frustrated. For RU&NR, wait and see; BR is strong, and the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity is coming to an end [5] Pulp - Pulp rose and then fell, driven by the overall commodity trend. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, and there is cost support in the long - term. The domestic pulp demand is average, and the downstream paper price and profit are poor. The pulp price is supported at the previous low, and the upside is limited by port inventory pressure and weak downstream demand. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Logs - The futures price is running strongly. The spot price is stable. The overseas quotation has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume may be relatively low. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume has increased. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" demand peak season is coming. The national port log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Temporarily wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has increasing supply pressure as port inventories rise significantly due to a large amount of cotton arriving at ports previously. As of March 5th, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 million tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. On the consumption side, downstream consumption is gradually recovering. The market is mainly fulfilling previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products is relatively low, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 15,285, a decrease of 10; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): -216,257, a decrease of 27,153; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 749,561, a decrease of 15,519; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 11,647, an increase of 204. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 21,280, an increase of 75; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): -1,499, a decrease of 122; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 14,518, a decrease of 98; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 43, an increase of 43 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 16,632, a decrease of 46; China Yarn Price Index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21,960, an increase of 20. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,478, an increase of 33; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21,875, an increase of 110. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,657, an increase of 24; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 23,451, an increase of 114 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, an increase of 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, an increase of 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,262, a decrease of 75; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide (monthly, million tons): 86.1, an increase of 1.3. - Cotton import volume (monthly, million tons): 18, an increase of 6; cotton yarn import volume (monthly, tons): 170,000, an increase of 20,000. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 2,975, a decrease of 70; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide (monthly, million tons): 578.87, an increase of 0.4 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 21.71, a decrease of 3.41; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.13, a decrease of 0.63. - Cloth output (monthly, billion meters): 30.1, an increase of 2; yarn output (monthly, million tons): 213.2, an increase of 9.3. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly, million US dollars): 134,124,120, an increase of 18,187,260; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly, million US dollars): 125,796,030, an increase of 3,038,700 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 18.42, a decrease of 0.62; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 18.42, a decrease of 0.62. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 16.04, a decrease of 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 13.76, no change [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 billion tons, a decrease of 598,000 tons (1.14% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 billion tons, a decrease of 854,000 tons (2.08% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, an increase of 72,000 tons (1.14% increase) from the previous week. - According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four - week level. The cotton export contract volume in the U.S. decreased during that week [2]

New Housing Market Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 47 cities increased by 63.7% week-on-week but decreased by 9.2% year-on-year during the "Golden March" period[4] - New housing transaction area in 47 cities rose by 11.1% compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential seasonal effect from the Lunar New Year[2] - The overall trend in new housing prices has stabilized, with a notable recovery in key cities[6] Second-hand Housing Market Insights - The transaction volume of second-hand housing in 22 cities fell by 25.0% year-on-year but increased by 14.6% compared to the same period last year[6] - Key cities have seen a slight increase in second-hand housing listings, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain[6] - The decline in national housing prices has significantly narrowed, suggesting a stabilization in the market[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in housing prices, increased debt risks for real estate companies, and macroeconomic downturns exceeding expectations[3][10]