Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - **RB2601 and HC2601**: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - **J2601**: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - **JM2601**: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - **I2601**: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - **Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - **Raw Coal and Coke Production**: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - **Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost**: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - **Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - **Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - **Transportation Cost**: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing shrinking profit margins and falling prices due to high costs and low steel prices, with an expected increase in steel production cuts [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with prices oscillating downward. The expected increase in long - term supply and the rising number of loss - making steel mills are factors to watch [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weakening demand expectations, with prices oscillating. The supply and demand dynamics of both are affected by factors such as steel mill profits and production levels [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a short - term price increase due to demand boost, but the long - term supply remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading volume was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 9.14 tons, a daily decrease of 3.37% and a weekly decrease of 23.79% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel supply is driven by fundamentals. High costs and falling steel prices have squeezed profit margins, and some steel mills' rebar businesses are in the red. High production and inventory levels have increased the expectation of production cuts [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. The spot price in Tangshan ports declined, and trading volume was down 33.08% to 124.4 tons. The forward - looking spot trading volume increased by 90.65% to 173.5 tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore arrivals increased, iron - water production remained high, and port inventory rose slightly. Due to the high probability of increased long - term supply and high price valuations, attention should be paid to the negative impact of steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures main contracts oscillated. The coal price in the main production areas continued to rise, and some terminal demand for restocking was released. The import market was strong [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking enterprise profits are near the break - even point. High iron - water production provides short - term support for coke prices, but the demand outlook is weak. After the holiday, coking coal production has recovered, and demand remains resilient [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to increased demand from metallurgical and chemical industries, restocking demand, and rising prices from large groups. In ports, the market sentiment was positive, and prices increased. The import market was stable to strong, and prices were more competitive [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term prices will oscillate due to demand boost, but the long - term supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a price increase, with rising spot prices and a weakening basis, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%, with production levels stabilizing in July compared to June [3]. - The production of rebar and hot-rolled steel has shown stability and slight recovery, with rebar production at 2.11 million tons and hot-rolled steel at 3.23 million tons [3]. Demand - The demand for the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production saw a larger decline of 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand has decreased, but external demand has increased significantly, offsetting the decline in domestic consumption [4]. Inventory - Recent production levels have aligned with demand, leading to a stabilization of inventory levels, with total inventory for the five major materials increasing by 154,000 tons to 13.52 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory increased by 77,000 tons to 5.46 million tons, while hot-rolled steel inventory rose by 28,000 tons to 3.48 million tons [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost of production is rising due to the recovery of coking coal supply, while steel prices are also increasing, leading to improved profit margins for steel mills [2]. - The current profit ranking for steel products is as follows: billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [2]. Market Outlook - The black metal market is showing signs of recovery, with a balance between supply and demand during the off-season, and expectations of a transition to peak demand [6]. - Short-term inventory pressure is low, and the upcoming shift to peak demand is expected to support steel prices [6].

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore remain stable, with PB powder at 772.0 CNY/ton and lump ore at 874.0 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market - As of July 31, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 789.0 CNY/ton, down 2.38%, while the distant month 2601 contract closed at 766.0 CNY/ton, down 2.65% [2] Basis - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with costs for lump ore, PB powder, mixed powder, and JMB powder at 793.4 CNY/ton, 818.4 CNY/ton, 823.4 CNY/ton, and 831.6 CNY/ton respectively. The basis for the 09 contract is 14.4 CNY/ton for lump ore, 39.4 CNY/ton for PB powder, 44.4 CNY/ton for mixed powder, and 52.6 CNY/ton for JMB powder [3] Demand - Daily iron output is 2.4071 million tons, down by 15,200 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, down by 0.57%; and the profit margin for steel mills is 65.37%, up by 1.73% [4] Supply - Global shipments increased by 918,000 tons week-on-week to 32.09 million tons, while the port arrival volume decreased by 130,700 tons to 22.405 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 105.948 million tons, up by 782,000 tons [5] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily dispatch volume down month-on-month. The inventory at 45 ports is 136.579 million tons, down by 1.3248 million tons; average daily dispatch volume is 3.0271 million tons, down by 124,400 tons; and steel mills' imported ore inventory is 90.1209 million tons, up by 1.2687 million tons [6] Market Sentiment - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a volatile downward trend. Despite an increase in global shipments, the volumes from Australia and Brazil slightly declined, and port arrivals decreased. Steel mills maintain high profit margins, with iron output slightly declining but remaining around 2.4 million tons per day. The demand from the end market shows strong performance despite seasonal weakness. Inventory levels at ports are decreasing, while steel mills' inventories are rising. Looking ahead, iron output is expected to remain high in August, averaging around 2.35 million tons per day, supported by improving steel mill profits. New supply-side policies are anticipated, and there are expectations of production restrictions in Hebei ahead of the military parade [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The downstream construction demand continues to decline on a month - on - month basis, and the apparent demand for major steel products has also weakened. The valuation of the black sector continues to oscillate weakly. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals show signs of entering the off - season, with a lack of demand highlights. Coupled with the strengthened market expectation of increased iron ore supply in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the futures price to obtain continuous price support. In the short term, the iron ore price may continue to oscillate weakly [4][48]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 750,000 lots, a decrease of 6,700 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of imported iron ore at ports remained stable this week. Among them, the price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port dropped 13 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, and the price of 62.5% BRBF dropped 16 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton. For domestic iron ore, the price of 66% iron concentrate in Tangshan dropped 5 yuan/ton to 930 yuan/ton, while the price of 66% iron concentrate in Hanxing and 65% iron concentrate in Laiwu increased by 21 yuan/ton to 947 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively. The Platts 62% index closed at 98.95 US dollars/dry ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 2.15 US dollars/dry ton [8]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Spot Variety Spread**: This week, the price decline of low - grade ore at ports was relatively small, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowed [15]. - **Periodic - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the main iron ore contract 2509 was at a discount of 107.1 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port, 3.1 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 35.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 55.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - **Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival**: As of May 16, the weekly shipment volume from Australia was 1.6489 billion tons, and that from Brazil was 751.1 million tons, a total of 2.4 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 250.1 million tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.0578 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203.6 million tons [25]. - **Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization**: As of May 23, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 66.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [26]. - **Iron Ore Freight**: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.86 US dollars, the same as the previous period, and the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 8.48 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 US dollars. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis [27]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 23, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The total weekly output of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 40,900 tons from the previous week, mainly driven by the increase in rebar and wire rod production. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [35][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 139.8783 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7826 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore decreased by 1.074 million tons to 59.1268 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 693,900 tons to 52.3989 million tons, and trade ore decreased by 139,700 tons to 94.5341 million tons [39]. 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - With the appearance of the iron - water production inflection point, the profit situation of steel mills has improved with the continuous decline in coking coal and coke prices. In terms of futures profits, as of May 23, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 123.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.74 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 216.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.74 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profits, as of May 23, the spot profit of rebar was 71.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.17 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 101.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.83 yuan/ton from the previous week [42]. 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton. The short - term upper resistance level is 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 640 yuan/ton [46].