Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests treating steel products with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Industry Event News**: The Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the basic fact report of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese hot - rolled steel coils to December 10, 2025, and the final arbitration report will be submitted to the minister by February 25, 2026. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and the subsidy funds are being used as expected, with central funds to be issued in the third and fourth quarters [2]. - **Industry Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot - metal output was 242.18 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 54.54%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.81 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, steel products showed little change, consolidating at the bottom. Although the price center shifted up slightly, it was still a narrow - range adjustment at a low level. The macro and fundamental aspects were relatively calm, and the weekly fundamentals continued the previous situation of strong supply and weak demand. As it has entered the off - season of demand, there is a possibility of further decline in future demand, and the probability of effective improvement in terminal demand is low. Without macro - policy promotion, the industry fundamentals are more likely to lead to prices falling rather than rising [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges and solutions related to the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy for electric vehicles in Xipu Town, Fujian Province, emphasizing the importance of grassroots efforts in facilitating policy execution and addressing consumer needs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation Challenges - The usage of the "old-for-new" subsidy funds in Xipu Town is relatively low compared to other regions, despite the apparent benefits for both merchants and consumers [2]. - Merchants face difficulties in applying for the "old-for-new" merchant qualification due to complicated procedures and missing documentation [2][3]. - The lack of sufficient incentives for consumers to scrap their old vehicles, as the nearest scrapping facility is over 40 kilometers away, poses a significant barrier to the policy's effectiveness [5]. Group 2: Solutions and Initiatives - Local officials, such as Zheng Lei, actively assist merchants in navigating the application process, resulting in a significant increase in the approval rate for merchant qualifications [3]. - Zheng Lei has initiated a partnership with the scrapping facility to facilitate the collection of old vehicles, improving convenience for consumers and ensuring a stable supply for the scrapping facility [5]. - A promotional event was organized to educate consumers about the subsidy standards and participating merchants, addressing common questions and enhancing awareness of the policy [6]. Group 3: Impact and Outcomes - As of now, Xipu Town has utilized 4.1 million yuan in "old-for-new" subsidy funds, benefiting over 10,000 residents [6]. - The proactive approach of local officials in addressing consumer and merchant concerns has led to a more effective implementation of the policy, fostering a sense of accomplishment among the staff [7].

Market Overview - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers launched promotional policies, leading to a strong performance in the car market in May, with retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reaching 1.938 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 10.0% [1] - New energy vehicle retail sales in May reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [1] June Market Outlook - The car market is expected to continue its upward trend in June, supported by the "trade-in" and "scrap renewal" policies, despite some regions experiencing temporary tightness in subsidy amounts [2] Manufacturer Sales Trends - In June, manufacturers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet quarterly and semi-annual targets, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% [3] - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 15% year-on-year compared to May of last year, with an estimated total retail market of around 2 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3] Weekly Sales Projections - The first week of June saw a decline in daily retail to 42,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 52,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [4] - The third week, boosted by the "618" e-commerce promotion, is expected to see daily retail reach 68,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [4] - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 101,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] June Market Heat - The arrival of the "618" e-commerce season has prompted manufacturers to launch new promotional campaigns, with the overall market discount rate reaching approximately 25.2% in mid-June [5] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the trade-in subsidy reached 4.12 million, providing significant momentum for the car market [5] - However, some regions are experiencing temporary tightness in trade-in subsidy funds, which may lead to increased consumer hesitation and potential consumption risks in the third quarter [5]

Economic Overview - Guangdong's economy is operating steadily with macro policies working in coordination as of May [2] - The industrial production shows stable growth with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to May, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] Industrial Performance - Significant growth in specific products: civil drones (113.0%), flat panel displays (102.3%), and servers (510.0%) in May [2][3] - The manufacturing sector grew by 4.0%, while mining decreased by 1.7% and electricity, heat, gas, and water supply fell by 0.2% [2] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's revenue reached 1.87 trillion yuan from January to April, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter [4] - Key areas such as transportation, information technology services, and business services contributed significantly to this growth [4] Consumer Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 1.926757 trillion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous period [5] - Notable growth in specific categories: home appliances (52.5%), cultural office supplies (47.1%), and furniture (67.7%) [5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.9% from January to May, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.5% [6] - Industrial investment accounted for 37.2%, with automotive manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing seeing increases of 18.4% and 11.3%, respectively [6] Price Index Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in May, with food prices down by 0.8% and non-food prices down by 0.3% [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.3% from January to May [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant improvement in demand and the rebound in valuation for the white goods sector, with a notable increase in air conditioning sales driven by the "trade-in" policy [6][19][34] - In 2024, the cumulative domestic sales volume of household air conditioners reached 104.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with Q4 showing a remarkable 24% growth compared to Q3 [19][20] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the kitchen appliance sector, which was included in the subsidy list for the first time in 2024, leading to high retail growth [34][35] Group 2 - The white goods sector is characterized by low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2][9] - The report identifies three main investment themes: the stability of the white goods sector, the growth potential of new consumer categories like clean appliances, and the second growth curve for upstream core component manufacturers [9][10] - The report notes that the export demand remains robust, particularly in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, which are expected to significantly boost appliance sales [2][9] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the white goods sector is at a near-bottom level, providing a high cost-performance ratio for investors [8][39] - Institutional holdings in the sector are strong, with public funds maintaining a high allocation to white goods stocks, reflecting continued optimism in the sector's performance [43][44] - The report forecasts a favorable outlook for 2025, driven by domestic policy support and strong demand from emerging markets [50]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Consumption ETF - The Consumption ETF managed by Jia Shi recorded a trading volume of 2.7878 million yuan on the trading day, with an average daily trading volume of 10.1431 million yuan over the past year [3] - The fund's scale increased by 127 million yuan over the past year, and its shares grew by 2.6 million in the past week [3] - Since its inception, the Consumption ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.5%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 7 months and a total increase of 66.83% [3] Group 2: Valuation and Market Trends - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index tracked by the Consumption ETF is 18.72, which is in the 0.4% percentile over the past year, indicating a valuation lower than 99.6% of the time in the last year [3] - The "old-for-new" policy is effectively stimulating consumer potential, leading to increased sales in key categories, with expectations for a positive domestic market in 2025 [4] - The service consumption sector is rapidly growing, with retail sales projected to increase by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, and per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% [4] Group 3: Industry Composition and Key Players - The Consumption ETF tracks the major consumption index, which includes leading A-share companies across various sectors such as liquor, pork, dairy, condiments, and food processing, with liquor being the largest sector at a weight of 45% [4] - Key stocks within the ETF include Kweichow Moutai (10.54% weight), Yili (9.91% weight), and Wuliangye (9.16% weight), among others [6] - Investors can also access the Consumption ETF through the Jia Shi Consumption ETF Connect Fund (009180) to capitalize on the consumption recovery trend [6]

Group 1 - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month growth of 0.93% [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted furniture sales, with retail sales of furniture products increasing by 25.6%, indicating a strong consumer demand in the furniture market [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has made it easier for consumers to replace old furniture, enhancing their purchasing desire and leading to a surge in sales across various furniture categories [3] Group 2 - As of May 31, the "old-for-new" policy has driven a total sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4] - The home improvement and kitchen renovation segment has seen 57.626 million orders, reflecting consumers' pursuit of improved home quality and the policy's deep-rooted impact [4] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue, with additional funding anticipated in the third quarter, providing confidence for future growth in the home consumption market [4] Group 3 - The "old-for-new" policy has prompted home furnishing companies to enhance product quality and service levels, leading to increased R&D investments and the introduction of more eco-friendly, smart, and personalized furniture products [5] - Companies are focusing on improving consumer experience by offering services such as old furniture collection and free installation, making the shopping experience more convenient [5] - The home consumption market is expected to see broader development opportunities as the "old-for-new" policy continues to evolve and consumer quality demands rise [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the supply growth rate of platinum is -0.4%, and the demand growth rate is 10.8%, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons. The supply growth rate of palladium is -1.7%, and the demand growth rate is -8.6%, with a supply surplus of 6 tons. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen oscillatingly, while palladium may continue to face pressure [3][53]. - In the automotive sector, the mid - term demand for platinum - group metals is mainly supported by PHEV. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1%. [3][52][53] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 H1 Platinum and Palladium Price Trends Review - As of June 16, 2025, Nymex platinum prices rose 36.25%, and palladium rose 15.01%. In Q1, prices oscillated weakly due to uncertain US tariff policies and heavy rainfall in South African mines. In Q2, prices recovered after hitting bottom, affected by trade frictions, tariff alleviation, and gold - platinum ratio changes [6]. 2. 2025 H2 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Market Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - **2.1.1 South African Extreme Weather Hit Global Platinum and Palladium Supply, Oligopoly Couldn't Hide Short - term Vulnerability** - Global primary platinum and palladium production is highly concentrated. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the US account for 96% of global production. The top four mining companies' market share exceeds 70% for platinum and over 80% for palladium [12]. - In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply dropped 13% year - on - year to 34 tons. South African heavy rainfall, low smelting capacity utilization in Zimbabwe, and North American mine restructuring led to the decline. Although production in South Africa recovered in Q2, long - term challenges may limit output. The annual platinum supply is expected to be 3.869 million ounces, down 6.38% year - on - year [17][19]. - **2.1.2 Recycled Supply Kept Growing, with Scrap Auto Catalysts Contributing the Main Increment** - Recycling accounts for 20 - 25% of the total platinum and palladium supply. Scrap auto catalysts contribute 70 - 75% of the recycled supply. The "scrap - for - new" policy and high platinum content in old cars are expected to accelerate scrap recycling in H2 2025, but some dismantlers' hoarding may suppress supply [24][26]. - In H1 2025, platinum jewelry consumption recovered, which may drive the recycling market. However, due to low inventory, the annual recycling volume may still decline [31]. 2.2 Demand Side - **2.2.1 Automotive Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Moderately** - **2.2.1.1 In terms of total volume, the global automotive production's platinum and palladium demand was revised down, affected by demand overdraft and tariff shocks** - In 2025, global automobile production is expected to be about 92 million units, a slight decline of less than 1% year - on - year. In the Chinese market, demand overdraft and inventory pressure may affect production and platinum - palladium demand. In overseas markets, tariffs and weak macro - economy may also impact demand [36]. - **2.2.1.2 Structurally, mid - term demand is mainly supported by PHEV** - The mid - term demand for platinum - group metals in the automotive sector is mainly supported by PHEV. In H1 2025, the PHEV market share reached 15.89%, up about 3 percentage points from the previous year. As other manufacturers follow up on PHEV technology, the market share may further increase. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1% [43][44]. - **2.2.2 Jewelry Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Rapidly, with Gold - Platinum Substitution Driving Up Expectations** - In 2025, global platinum jewelry demand is expected to grow about 15%. The high gold price has made platinum jewelry more attractive. In the Chinese market, new platinum showrooms and counters have emerged. In the Japanese market, demand is expected to grow steadily, while in India, growth may slow due to US tariff policies [49].

Market Review - Major indices experienced declines in the recent trading days from June 13 to June 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.19% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.95% [5] - The trading volume slightly decreased, with a total of 6.33 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion yuan, down by 99.55 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [13] Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, continuing to decline, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.6% [29] - Manufacturing investment rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, indicating a need for stabilization in the real estate market [30] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly rebounding by 1.3 percentage points, supported by policies and promotional events [32] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a "1+6" policy package aimed at further reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the introduction of a growth tier and the resumption of the fifth set of listing standards [34] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the future [35] Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by continued fluctuations, with external risks not fully dissipated and key variables needed to break the existing trend [38] - Investment opportunities are identified in the banking sector due to high dividend yields and defensive characteristics, as well as thematic investment opportunities in the TMT sector, biomedicine, and national defense industries [38]

2025 年下半年消费品投资策略 20250618 摘要 城镇化率成熟及居民消费时间受限是服务消费增长的制约因素，但鼓励 带薪休假等政策及年轻人就业偏好或将推动服务消费提升。 连续下跌四年的资产已充分反映悲观预期，一旦出现乐观因素，股价弹 性较大。2025 年上半年医药、社会服务等行业表现良好，房地产股票 指数和白酒板块存在修复绝对收益空间。 医药行业经历四年调整后表现火爆，创新药及相关产业链标的值得关注。 恒瑞医药、康缘药业和首药控股等公司具备增长潜力。 传媒领域首推潮玩方向，如泡泡玛特，预计 2025 年净利润可观，需求 端表现强劲，但需关注供应链问题及黄牛囤货对消费者长期购买热情的 影响。 下半年汽车行业需求受以旧换新政策和财政补贴影响，中高端市场关注 理想汽车和江淮汽车，中低端市场聚焦比亚迪、吉利等龙头企业。零部 件领域关注福耀玻璃、双环等公司。 纺织服装行业内需复苏是重要做多线索，下半年低基数窗口开启，推荐 高性能运动户外、折扣零售、睡眠经济、母婴消费以及国潮学院风 IP 高 端服饰等五个方向。 家电行业以旧换新政策打破悲观预期，内需市场延续高增长，出口方面 新兴市场弥补北美市场缺口。推荐海尔智家， ...