Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff shocks on global capital markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese A-share market and the perspectives of major financial institutions like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley regarding investment strategies in the current environment [1][2]. Group 1: UBS Insights - UBS analyst Meng Lei suggests that the recent movements in the A-share market may have already priced in potential negative impacts from tariffs, referencing historical data from 2018 where major indices experienced about a 3% decline on the first day of tariff news but stabilized thereafter [3][4]. - Current valuation levels in the A-share market provide a cushion against downside risks, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and all A-shares having static P/E ratios of 11.7x and 13.8x, respectively, both below their five-year averages by 0.7 standard deviations [4]. - The market's stability requires significant net inflows of capital, with institutions like Central Huijin increasing their holdings in ETFs to support market stability [4][5]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Perspective - Goldman Sachs' chief strategist Liu Jinjun emphasizes that U.S. tariffs affect the fair value of Chinese stocks through multiple variables, including direct income shocks to exporters and potential policy responses [6]. - Liu anticipates that the market may experience downward pressure until trade and policy uncertainties are resolved, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the short term [6]. Group 3: Morgan Stanley Analysis - Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang indicates that the A-share market is more resilient and should be viewed as a hedging or diversification option amid ongoing market volatility [7][8]. - Wang notes that the sensitivity of A-share investors to policy changes is lower due to the predominance of retail investors, which may lead to more stable performance compared to offshore markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts of recent tariff increases by the U.S., suggesting that the U.S. may face recession or stagflation, while China could continue its M-shaped recovery. Countries with significant trade exposure may experience economic headwinds. The recommendation is to overweight gold and Chinese bonds, while underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities [1][4][12]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced a general 10% tariff on imports, with countries having large trade deficits facing tariffs exceeding 30%. This escalation in tariffs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a risk-off sentiment in global assets, resulting in declines in global stocks and commodities [3][4]. - The tariff impact was anticipated, as previous analyses indicated that the market underestimated the negative effects of Trump's policies, predicting that the U.S. economy would struggle to maintain a balanced growth path [5][11]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face a downward trend, with consumption and investment showing signs of decline. The potential paths for the U.S. economy include stagflation (high inflation and low growth) and recession (low inflation and low growth) [11][12]. - In contrast, China's economy is projected to follow a "weak recovery" path, supported by policy stimulus, with expectations of an M-shaped growth trajectory similar to the previous year. China's inflation remains significantly lower than that of the U.S., allowing for more flexibility in counter-cyclical policies [11][12]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - To mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, the recommendation is to overweight safe assets such as gold and Chinese bonds. Historical data shows that safe assets tend to perform well during significant declines in U.S. stocks [12][13]. - Gold is highlighted as a key asset due to its inflation-hedging properties, with projections suggesting a long-term price range of $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. Recent price declines are attributed to market sentiment rather than liquidity issues [17][19]. - The recommendation for U.S. bonds is cautious due to high uncertainty, while Chinese bonds are expected to perform well as monetary policy may counteract the negative effects of tariffs [19][20]. Stock Market Strategy - The article advises underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities, with a focus on high-dividend and policy-benefiting stocks in China. The recent declines in U.S. stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicate a significant adjustment risk [20][22]. - Historical analysis suggests that after a 20% decline in U.S. stocks, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, but these often occur after clear policy shifts [20][22]. Conclusion on Global Economic Dynamics - The economic performance of countries outside the U.S. may depend on their trade exposure to the U.S. and the extent of tariff increases. Countries with high reliance on exports to the U.S. may face significant economic risks due to the tariff pressures [11][12][26]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic landscape and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and their implications for global markets [11][12][26].

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Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff on trade partners, with specific tariffs of 34% on China and 20% to 49% on other countries, which may lead to increased inflation risks in the U.S. [2][3] - China's exports to the U.S. have decreased from 19.2% of total exports in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and a growing reliance on other markets [2][3] - The report emphasizes that despite short-term impacts from tariffs, China's strong domestic market and manufacturing capabilities will support continued economic growth and expansion of trade partnerships [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that since September 2024, China has implemented favorable policies to stabilize and boost the domestic economy, with a focus on increasing consumption and investment [2][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as technology sectors benefiting from domestic substitution [3]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and South America's new season may be in a bumper - harvest pattern. Currently, it's the U.S. soybean export and South American growth and harvest season. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may be stable [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2505 contract may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: 43 soybean meal prices in different regions: Zhangjiagang 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (- 30), Rizhao 3,070 yuan/ton (- 10), Dongguan 2,970 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Market analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies have caused market panic. CBOT soybeans have declined due to demand concerns. In April, the number of imported soybeans is expected to increase. Terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. Oil mill soybean meal inventory remains neutral [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,082 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,281 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port is 2,130 - 2,155 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, and imported corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, but there are still potential suppressing factors [4] - Reference view: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [4] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,010 - 79,290 yuan, down 905 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, giving the market strong expectations. The raw material impact is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [5] - Reference view: Affected by the external market, Shanghai copper may open sharply lower. It is recommended to keep the strategy unchanged [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 1,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: Lithium ore prices are unchanged, and inventory has increased. Supply is growing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6][7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Reference view: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will oscillate at a low level [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (washed coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is still sluggish, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to loose supply, coking coal and coke will rebound weakly at a low level with limited space [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 786 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 787 yuan [10] - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak both domestically and overseas, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provides some support [10] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: After the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - attacked, global capital markets tumbled, and crude oil prices dropped more than 10% during the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the U.S. PMI data in February contracted [11] - Reference view: The WTI main contract will experience a sharp decline after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline in the domestic market [11] Group 10: Rubber - Spot information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 16,350 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" have affected China's tire and automobile exports, causing rubber prices to fall. Domestically, full - latex rubber production is gradually resuming, and the global rubber supply and demand are both loose [13] - Reference view: Rubber prices will mainly oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline after the holiday [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [14] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise start - up rate has increased. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and inventory has decreased. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [14] - Reference view: In the short term, lacking fundamental positive drivers, the futures price will oscillate at a low level [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,471.56 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market analysis: The soda ash start - up rate has increased, production has risen, and factory inventory has accumulated. Social inventory has decreased slightly. Demand is average, and there is resistance to high - price goods [15] - Reference view: Before the holiday, the 05 contract fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various commodity markets, including the likelihood of price fluctuations, such as hitting daily limits or experiencing significant price changes, and provides insights into the underlying reasons for these movements [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products - **粕类**: There is a risk of a sharp increase, with far - month contracts possibly hitting the daily limit. There is a risk of opening at the daily limit for contracts 2509 and 2601 but then falling. It is the strongest agricultural product [1]. - **玉米**: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. It is less affected by tariffs [1]. - **生猪**: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. The impact of the current tariff policy on pork imports is small [1]. - **白糖**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. It is affected by the cost - increasing sentiment from the rise in soybean meal [1]. - **棉花**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - **油脂**: There is a significant risk of price decline, but the possibility of hitting the daily limit is not high. It is the weakest agricultural product [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **原油**: It may open significantly lower and hit the daily limit. The domestic market has a lower probability of continuous sharp decline compared to other varieties [1]. - **PX PTA**: It may open lower, with a high probability of hitting the daily limit [1]. - **pf pr**: It may open lower, close to the daily limit [1]. - **PVC**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit [1]. - **烧碱**: There is a risk of price decline, but the change in volatility is small [1]. - **PP、PE**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - **合成橡胶**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - **天然橡胶**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. It is expected to mainly experience significant declines [1]. - **燃料油、低硫燃料油**: FU05 has a risk of hitting the daily limit; LU may decline significantly but may not hit the daily limit. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - **沥青**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **LPG**: There is a risk of price increase, but the increase is expected to be relatively controllable. Post - holiday volatility is expected to increase [1]. - **集运指数（欧线）**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases [1]. Precious Metals - **黄金**: It fell due to liquidity contraction but has high hedging value. It may still rise after a small decline [1]. - **白银**: It was hit by both liquidity contraction and recession expectations and fell rapidly. There is still a risk of further decline [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **铜**: It may open significantly lower and has a high probability of hitting the daily limit. The global consumption growth rate may be adjusted downward [1]. - **铝**: It may open lower, with a low probability of hitting the daily limit on Monday. Attention should be paid to the short - selling pressure on high - profit varieties [1]. - **铅**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases due to macro - level negatives and the off - season [1]. - **锌**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases due to macro - level negatives and long - term oversupply [1]. - **锡 铁矿石**: There is a risk of price decline, but it will not hit the daily limit. Volatility increases, mainly affected by the macro side [1]. Black Metals - **螺纹钢**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **热轧卷板**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **焦煤**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **焦炭**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **硅铁**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **锰硅**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **碳酸锂**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **镍**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. There is a short - term and long - term supply - demand contradiction [1]. New Energy - **工业硅**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases, with weak fundamentals [1]. - **多晶硅**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is small. Volatility increases, but there are concerns about tight delivery resources [1]. - **不锈钢**: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is small. There is a short - term and medium - term supply - demand contradiction [1]. Finance - **国债期货**: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - **股指期货**: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. IM and IC will have larger declines. Volatility increases, and the trend depends on tariff policies and domestic policy hedging [1]. Financial Engineering - **期权等应对策略与策略风险提示**: In - the - money call options may hit the daily limit down, and in - the - money put options may hit the daily limit up. Volatility jumps [1].