（来源：经济参考报） 联博基金日前发布中国资本市场观点表示，展望2026年权益市场，可关注中国经济转型升级契机下的资 本市场表现。"反内卷"、企业出海与AI等因素有望支持企业盈利改善。2026年随着经济转型推进，A股 企业有望迎来更强的盈余增长动能。从行业来看，新消费、创新药与科技AI等领域不容忽视。债券市 场方面，明确的趋势性行情或较难出现，区间震荡或更趋常态化。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良表示，具体来看，经济结构转型包括消费形态的转型、竞争模式转型 （"反内卷"）与经营模式转型。中国政府推动提高经济质量的政策对资本市场构成支持。 在消费领域，朱良表示，消费在GDP中的比重逐步上升，相关拉动举措可能使新消费成为重要投资方 向。消费形态方面也在经历转型，年轻群体更注重消费体验与情绪价值，追求即时满足与高反馈。这 种"小确幸"式消费偏好有利于细分市场需求的形成，而民营企业在满足这些细分需求上较为灵活，因而 中小盘民营企业在新消费领域可能带来值得关注的机会。 朱良表示，就政策影响而言，上市公司盈利对市场表现的影响或将大于经济政策的影响。"反内卷"等措 施有望推动盈利改善。此外，上市公司海外营收占比若持续扩大， ...

| 4). 4300点附近 | 16% | | --- | --- | | 5). 4400点附近 | 22% | | 6). 4500点及以上 | 10% | （感谢申万宏源证券、东北证券相关营业部对本调查的支持。上图为部分调查结果） □ 伴随着A股主要指数在2025年全线收红，近六成受访投资者实现盈利。其中，以人工智能为代表的核 心热点板块在2025年持续上涨，成为贡献投资收益的主要来源 □ 在无风险利率持续下行的背景下，随着股市赚钱效应不断增强，居民存款向权益资产"搬家"的现象在 2025年初现端倪 □ 近八成投资者看涨2026年股市，并且对春季行情充满期待。值得一提的是，投资者对今年上证综指波 动范围的预期"乐观但不激进"，倾向于在指数稳健运行的背景下，把握结构性机会而非博弈指数大幅突 破 ◎记者 汪友若 投资收益连续两年上升 纵观2025年全年，主要宽基股指均在当年4月初触底后一路高歌猛进。上证综指从年内低位的3040.69点 起步，一度冲破4000点大关，全年涨幅接近20%，创下近六年来最佳年度表现；科技含量更高的创业板 指和科创综指全年涨幅更是接近50%。 市场行情的向好直接惠及广大投资者，近六 ...

Macro Strategy - In January 2026, PMI fell below the threshold, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, non-manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, and composite PMI at 49.8%, indicating a decline in economic prosperity [2] - The production index was at 50.6%, indicating manufacturing expansion, while the new orders index dropped to 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in market demand [2] - Industries such as agricultural food processing and aerospace equipment showed production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like petroleum and automotive saw indices below the threshold, indicating a slowdown in market demand [2] Stock Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations after a "good start," with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component down 1.62% from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [3] - The market's volatility was attributed to a strong dollar affecting gold and other previously rising sectors, leading to a broad decline in indices [3][4] - The overall market trend remains strong, supported by the central bank's policies and the expectation of continued economic stability in 2026 [7] Industry Analysis: Non-ferrous Metals and New Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials sector saw a slight increase of 0.16%, outperforming the benchmark [9] - Domestic light rare earth concentrate prices stabilized, while medium and heavy rare earth prices declined, with praseodymium and neodymium prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The supply side remains tight, with market demand expected to support high rare earth prices, while the demand for downstream applications like new energy vehicles is showing signs of marginal decline [11] Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metals sector is rated as "overweight," with expectations of stable demand and pricing trends, particularly in the rare earth segment [11] - Focus on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material firms with strong customer structures and growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a new round of urban renewal, with significant potential in the consumer building materials segment as it shows resilience against the declining demand in the new housing market [2][9]. - The industry is witnessing a consolidation trend, with leading companies emerging from the profit trough, while smaller firms are being eliminated due to declining profitability [2][9]. - Price increases have been observed in various segments, including waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, as companies adjust their strategies post-downturn [2][9]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a traditional off-season, with demand expected to weaken. The average price is around 350 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 2.7 RMB per ton [25][32]. - The average shipment rate for cement companies has increased by approximately 3 percentage points, reaching about 32% [27][32]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential new projects post-Chinese New Year [32]. Glass - The glass sector is also entering a demand lull, with the average price of float glass at 1,145 RMB per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 6 RMB [34]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a reported stock of approximately 4,927 million weight boxes, down by 1% week-on-week [34]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the industry anticipates a stabilization point after recent downturns [34][46]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with a potential for price increases post-holiday due to stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic sectors [9][12]. - The price of electronic cloth is currently stable, with expectations for continued high demand in mid-to-high-end products [12]. - Key recommendations include China Jushi and International Composites, with a focus on their growth potential [9][12]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with the commercial aerospace sector expected to drive new demand growth in 2026 [12][15]. - The industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the development of commercial aerospace may provide new opportunities [12][15]. - Companies to monitor include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as they may benefit from this emerging demand [12][15].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 沃什当选与 PPI 提前转正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要矛盾 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）"新质生产力"与"反内卷"取得实质性进展，2025 年工业企 业扭转了此前三年持续亏损局面，特别是高技术制造业的利润贡献率大幅提 升。2）开年以来，以有色为代表的大宗大幅涨价，预计 1 月 PPI 环比超预期 增长 0.3%，对应 1 月 PPI 同比回升至-1.2%，预计 PPI 或于 Q2 中后期转正。 海外方面，1）美联储 1 月议息会议并未进一步降息，本次会议中鲍威尔略显 鹰派。2）特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席。3）伊朗局势紧张，贵金属与 有色大幅调整之际，油价依然走高。 资金经历跨月扰动，央行继续通过 OMO 操作释放流动性对冲资金缺口，对资 金面保持温和呵护取向，周度平均走势来看，以 DR001、007 以及 R001、 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 资产方面，1）沃什被任命下一届美联储主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is at a crossroads amid accelerating global energy transition and rising trade protectionism and geopolitical risks. The industry's ability to emerge from a period of widespread losses is under scrutiny, especially with recent signals of domestic "anti-involution" policies and stabilization in product prices [1][17]. Group 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" and Green Hydrogen - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of renewable energy development, aiming to build a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system, and increase the share of renewable energy supply [3][19]. - The plan provides a "stabilizing force" for the industry, ensuring that renewable energy remains a mainstream power supply [3][19]. - The hydrogen industry is entering a critical stage for scaling up, with expectations that green hydrogen costs will approach parity by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and become competitive by 2030-2035 [5][21]. Group 2: Shift from "Made in China" to "Local for Local" - The global green economy has grown into a $5 trillion market, with China leading in production capacity and market share in sectors like electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [5][19]. - The strategy has shifted from exporting products to establishing local production capabilities, adapting to geopolitical challenges and local manufacturing requirements in markets like the U.S. and India [8][24]. - The company has successfully established one of the largest solar module factories in the Western Hemisphere through a joint venture model, which is being replicated in other countries [9][25]. Group 3: Addressing "Involution" and Competition - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and price wars, necessitating a focus on technological innovation and policy guidance to ensure long-term development [10][26]. - The key to overcoming "involution" lies in setting high standards and supporting strong players while eliminating substandard products from the market [10][26]. - The company emphasizes the need for market consolidation and collaboration among remaining firms to foster a healthier competitive environment [10][26]. Group 4: ESG as a Competitive Barrier - Effective ESG management is transitioning from a cost center to a competitive barrier, with good practices reflecting sustainable competitiveness [12][28]. - The company is advocating for improved ESG standards across the supply chain, aiming to establish a competitive edge in the industry [12][28]. - The company has made progress in ESG ratings, moving from a BBB rating to aiming for an A rating by 2025, highlighting the importance of governance and social factors [12][28]. Group 5: Future Directions and Solutions - The company is evolving from a component supplier to an energy solutions provider, focusing on comprehensive pricing and project returns rather than just component efficiency [11][27]. - There is an expectation of more substantial case studies and international applications in the coming years, reflecting the industry's shift towards integrated energy solutions [11][27]. - The key to navigating future challenges lies in building capabilities for new power systems and achieving effective global operations [15][31].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations after the "opening red" in January, with major indices showing mixed performance [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line in January, indicating a decline in economic activity [6][27] - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook for the A-share market supported by favorable monetary policies and economic recovery [8][31] Market Performance - During the week of January 26-30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index saw a slight decline of 0.09% [3][10] - The largest weekly fluctuation was observed in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index, which experienced a 6.67% swing [10] - The overall market trend reflects increased volatility due to a stronger dollar and high index levels, leading to a demand for consolidation [13] Industry Analysis - Among the 31 first-level industries, the oil and petrochemical sector and telecommunications led with gains of 7.95% and 5.83%, respectively, while the defense and military industry and power equipment saw declines of -7.69% and -5.10% [4][20] - In the second-level industries, precious metals and oil service engineering had the highest weekly gains of 18.02% and 14.83%, while aerospace equipment II and military electronics II faced the largest declines of -15.78% and -8.45% [4][22] - The third-level industries showed gold and seeds leading with weekly increases of 18.22% and 15.02%, while aerospace equipment III and thermal power equipment had the largest drops of -15.78% and -9.93% [5][25] Macro Data - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index at 50.6% showing slight expansion [6][27][28] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a slowdown in market demand across various sectors [28] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a stable economic environment in 2026, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, which is expected to sustain a "slow bull" market for A-shares [8][31] - Short-term market expectations remain strong, particularly in sectors related to "anti-involution," new productivity in AI and technology, and agriculture, which are expected to benefit from central bank policies [8][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The dry bulk freight rates have unexpectedly rebounded during the off-season, with significant increases noted in large vessels. The VLCC market saw a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and strong demand for commodities like iron ore and grain [1][2] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, COSCO Shipping International, and CIMC Enric [1][2] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The VLCC freight rates surged again, while dry bulk freight rates showed an unexpected off-season recovery, particularly for larger vessels. The BDI index reached 2148 points on January 30, with the BCI at 3507 points [1][2] - The transportation sector index fell by 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points. The top-performing segments were shipping, ports, and highways, with gains of 2.19%, 1.42%, and 0.10% respectively [21][22] Travel - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year. The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector due to recovering demand and supportive policies [3][13] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing a resurgence in freight rates, with the index for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to China rising to WS137.2 points, an increase of 42.6 points from the previous day. The dry bulk freight rates are also on the rise, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain [14][15] - Key companies in the shipping sector include China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping International, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: the overseas expansion driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the internal competition dynamics that favor leading companies. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths until the US economy faces a recession crisis. The long - end interest rate in the US is likely to rise, and the US economy may overheat. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and the trading will focus on economic and policy factors. Gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver's high is expected to be around $120 per ounce. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to Fed rate cuts and supply - demand gaps. The electrolytic aluminum market may have an upward trend, with a global supply shortage [10][35][98]. Summary by Directory Asset Allocation: Macroeconomic Contradictions and Allocation Strategies - The US Treasury drives currency and inflation. The continuous growth of US Treasury debt is backed by GDP. Since 2000, the US government's expenditure/GDP ratio has been rising, and the deficit rate is high. If the stock market has a crisis, it may bring opportunities for commodities. The sensitivity of non - ferrous metals to interest rates has increased since 2020, and the game between the Fed and global commodity inflation has intensified [4][13]. - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths. The US economy may overheat, and the long - end interest rate is likely to rise. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and trading will focus on economic and policy factors [10][35]. Precious Metals: Where Are Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Headed? - Gold is at a new starting point. Due to geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations, it is recommended to increase gold allocation, focus on unilateral long positions and call option strategies. For silver, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider long positions in the gold - silver ratio. In 2026, gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver is expected to have a high of around $120 per ounce [29][35]. - Platinum and palladium are driven by the precious metals sector. They have strong follow - up elasticity but are also affected by the callback of gold and silver. The current upward trend of platinum is relatively healthy, and there is a possibility of a new high. Palladium may have supplementary upward momentum [36]. Copper: How to Choose the Trading Mode under the Background of Weak Reality and Strong Expectations? - In terms of trading, copper price volatility has declined, and the positions of SHFE and LME copper are at historical highs. The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the spot import loss has narrowed. Globally, the total copper inventory is at a historical high, and the LC spread has narrowed [37][44][48]. - The global copper mine supply in 2025 was lower than expected, and the increase in 2026 is limited. The supply disturbance has increased, mainly due to factors such as reduced ore grades, strikes, and geopolitics. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the refined copper output is expected to increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026 [62][66][69]. - In terms of consumption, high - quality consumption such as AI computing centers and new energy consumption contribute significantly to copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" in China supports power grid investment, which will drive copper consumption. Traditional industries also show an increase in copper consumption, but there are differences among countries [75][80][92]. - The global refined copper supply will shift from surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026. It is expected that the global copper supply will have a shortage of 197,000 tons in 2026, and the Chinese market will have a shortage of 191,500 tons. Copper prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 [95][96][98]. Electrolytic Aluminum: How to Grasp the Contradictions and Rhythms after the Abnormal Breakthrough? - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market was in a state of shock convergence. In the fourth quarter, the stock - futures linkage opened up the upward elasticity. In 2026, it is expected that the market will continue the upward - looking trend, with a global supply shortage of 420,000 - 760,000 tons. The short - term rhythm needs to pay attention to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, and the risks include macro - recession and over - production in Indonesia [100][101][104]. - Currently, the Shanghai aluminum is in a high - level shock, with a neutral - strong position. The short - term micro - demand is weak, but the macro - risk preference is optimistic, and it has marginal upward momentum [110]. Over - the - Counter Options: How to Use Option Hedging Tools under High Volatility and High Prices? - For long positions, when the price is high, consider replacing with in - the - money call options to retain the upside potential and control the maximum drawdown. You can also use spread options to optimize costs with a capped upside [118][122]. - For selling hedging of inventory, consider buying put collar options to optimize the hedging cost, limit inventory price fluctuations between $100,000 - $120,000, and receive an option premium of $150 per ton [126].