Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

Economic Performance - July industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from June and slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.8%[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June, with non-automotive retail sales growing by 4.3%[12] - Fixed asset investment from January to July showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with private investment declining by 1.5%[23] Sector Analysis - From January to July, manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, while real estate investment fell by 12.0%[25] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value, indicating resilience in this sector[7] - Service consumption in July grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by strong demand during the summer travel season[15] Challenges and Risks - Economic data for July reflects significant downward pressure on growth, influenced by complex external conditions and adverse domestic weather factors[34] - Price factors continue to drag down nominal growth rates in retail sales and fixed asset investment[34] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[36] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are essential to stimulate domestic demand and support growth[35] - Attention should be given to the implementation of consumption loan interest subsidies and the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on foreign trade dynamics[35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first seven months of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while broad infrastructure investment was 14.3 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [2][7] - In July, narrow infrastructure investment saw a significant decline of 5.2%, marking the first monthly decrease since 2022, indicating increased pressure on infrastructure [12] - Road investment experienced a notable downturn in July, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, while railway investment continued to show positive trends with a growth rate of 12.4% [12] - Actual infrastructure demand appears weak, with cement production in July down 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on both housing and traditional infrastructure [12] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds, with a total of 28,369 billion yuan issued this year, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth through fiscal measures and major projects [12] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - Narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% in July, while broad infrastructure investment fell by 1.4% [12] - Cumulative narrow infrastructure investment for the first seven months was 10.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [12] Sector Analysis - Road investment saw a significant decline, while railway investment maintained a positive trajectory [12] - Water conservancy investment showed a decrease of 4% in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [12] Demand and Growth Strategies - Cement production and sales data suggest a decline in actual infrastructure demand, despite a smaller decrease in cement output compared to investment figures [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal measures and major projects to stabilize growth, with a focus on significant infrastructure projects [12]

Group 1 - Jiangsu province implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on stable growth and improving people's livelihoods, which provided strong support for high-quality development [1] - In the first half of the year, Jiangsu's general public budget revenue reached 583.68 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, with tax revenue growing by 2.7% for nine consecutive months [1] - The industrial production growth led to a 7.4% increase in value-added tax, indicating strong internal economic momentum [1] Group 2 - Wuxi Tengma Precision Transmission Co., Ltd. reported a 44% increase in revenue this year, driven by rising orders for products used in humanoid and industrial robots [1] - Jiangsu Lianbo Precision Technology Co., Ltd. is in a rapid development phase, receiving a 1% fiscal subsidy that significantly supports its growth [2] - The provincial government allocated 10 billion yuan for social elderly service system construction and 31.38 billion yuan for employment subsidies, enhancing social welfare [2]

Economic Growth and Structural Adjustment - July economic growth has slowed, primarily driven by policy and seasonal factors, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from June[8] - Consumer retail sales growth has also decelerated to 3.7%, reflecting diminishing effects of subsidy policies and increased service consumption during the summer[19] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July is at 1.6%, with July showing a significant decline of 5.3%, marking a further drop from June's -0.1%[25] Production and Investment Insights - High-end manufacturing remains resilient, but overall industrial production faces challenges from extreme weather and external demand decline[7] - Manufacturing investment has turned negative for the first time since mid-2020, with new export orders PMI dropping to 46.1, indicating reduced external demand[26] - Real estate investment has seen a sharp decline, with July's new construction area down 15.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressures in the housing market[29] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Online retail sales have increased by 13.5%, driven by new consumption models, while traditional retail sectors like home appliances are experiencing slower growth due to subsidy reductions[21] - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors as new graduates enter the job market[15] - The real estate market continues to face significant pressure, with sales area and sales value down 7.8% and 14.1% respectively in July, indicating a need for new supportive policies[29]

Macroeconomic Insights - Economic growth in July showed an overall slowdown, with policy-driven sectors performing well due to equipment upgrades, appliance replacements, and major infrastructure projects [3] - Durable goods consumption and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries maintained high growth rates, while extreme weather, high base effects, and declining external demand hindered project construction and production in some sectors [3] - The real estate sector is still in a downturn, indicating that internal recovery momentum is not yet solid [3] - Future economic recovery requires continued and enhanced consumer stimulus policies, optimized funding allocation for infrastructure, and increased support for demand in the real estate market [3] Capital Market Strategy - The shift in valuation logic for the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, with expectations for A/H stock indices to reach new highs [5][7] - Institutional changes are crucial for improving the investability of the Chinese stock market and altering societal perceptions of asset value [8][9] - Recent reforms aim to enhance investor returns, improve corporate governance, and encourage share buybacks, which are expected to increase investor confidence and market performance [9][10] - The establishment of a stable market mechanism is seen as a "firewall" that reduces risk perceptions and encourages long-term capital investment [10][11] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since mid-June, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and U.S. trade policies [15] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to liquidity tightening, negatively impacting stock performance [15] - The decline in popularity of key sectors and a slowdown in capital inflows have contributed to the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [16] - Despite recent underperformance, the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications and consumer trends [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, but with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [5][12] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to benefit from structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [5][12] Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.00% this week, underperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.37% [12] - Among the steel sub-sectors, special steel fell by 0.92%, long products by 1.44%, and flat products by 3.15% [12] Supply Data - As of August 15, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, up by 0.13 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.601 million tons, an increase of 0.27% week-on-week [25] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, a decrease of 1.74% week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 102,000 tons, down by 1.08% week-on-week [36] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.908 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 2.94% [44] - Factory inventory of five major steel products reached 4.251 million tons, up by 2.97% week-on-week [44] Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,566.4 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.10% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,638.7 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.01% [50] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 121 yuan, down by 23.42% week-on-week [59] - The profit per ton for electric arc furnace construction steel was -68 yuan, a significant decrease of 58.14% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 774 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [72]

Economic Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year but decreased by 0.14% month-on-month[3] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year[3] Investment Trends - Both infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth turned negative in July, with broad infrastructure down by 1.9% and narrow infrastructure down by 5.1%[4][8] - Manufacturing investment growth fell from 5.1% in June to -0.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in investment momentum[6][23] Consumption Insights - The decline in retail sales growth to 3.7% in July was primarily driven by a decrease in automobile sales and weak demand in other categories[8][9] - The effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy for stimulating consumption has weakened, with significant drops in categories like automobiles and home appliances[9][34] Employment Concerns - The urban surveyed unemployment rate increased, indicating a potential rise in youth unemployment, particularly among the 16-24 age group[4][15] - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to be 12.22 million, higher than the previous year's 11.79 million, raising concerns about job market saturation[4] Risks and Challenges - The current economic environment shows signs of "production stability, weak consumption, and weak investment," posing risks for the second half of the year[3] - External shocks and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for economic performance in the latter half of 2025[3][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong securities index has risen by 4.9%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Zhongzhou Securities and CITIC Securities, which both increased by over 9% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) achieved a trading volume exceeding 40 billion yuan, setting a new record for single-day trading volume for this product [1] - The current favorable market conditions are attributed to the government's ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the stock market, which are expected to continue influencing the sector's future direction [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - Factors such as a moderately loose liquidity environment, continuous optimization of the capital market, and the restoration of investor confidence are collectively driving the improvement in the securities sector's outlook [1] - There is an increasing expectation for the expansion of medium to long-term capital, which further enhances the outlook for fundamental improvements in the sector [1] Group 3: ETF Product Details - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) is the only ETF product tracking the Hong Kong securities index, focusing on stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range [1] - The ETF includes major constituents such as CITIC Securities, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and Guotai Junan Securities, and supports T+0 trading with a management fee rate of only 0.15% per year [1]

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