请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 掘金存量, 另辟成长 建材行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着存量需求登场，消费建材需求发生质变，有望驱动行业需求回到历史前高水平，同时优化 下游需求结构，使得建材的消费品特征日趋显著，首推商业模式最优且稀缺成长的三棵树。非 洲是产能出海的沃土，建材先行，非洲本土龙头的价值被低估，看好科达制造、华新水泥、西 部水泥。国产替代链链条看好特种玻纤、工业涂料等，特种玻纤龙头中材科技受益 AI 算力需求 增长，工业涂料龙头麦加芯彩的弹性来自船舶涂料的从 0 到 1。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 44 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3061 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 11 元/吨，跌幅为 0.36%，持仓减少 4.13 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.59 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.29%至 375.07 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.87%至 174.22 万吨。 | | | | 螺纹热卷库存均呈上升态势，钢材现实驱动有所走弱。上周盘面上涨后基差收敛，淡季下游对现货涨价的 | | | | 接受度不高，部分品种如唐山钢坯近期累库较快，对盘面价格走势存在一定压制。不过目前现货基本面矛 | | | | 盾并不明显，市场对于"反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 ...

截至2025年7月8日午间收盘，光伏ETF(159857)收涨5.19%，换手8.22%，半日成交1.92亿元。跟踪指数中证光伏产业指数(931151)强势上涨5.08%，成分股大 全能源(688303)上涨15.30%，阳光电源(300274)上涨10.49%，通威股份(600438)上涨10.00%，钧达股份(002865)，弘元绿能(603185)等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至7月7日，光伏ETF(159857)近1周规模增长6487.18万元，近2周份额增长1.90亿份，均实现显著增长，新增规模、份额均居深市同类产品第 一。值得一提的是，该基金年初至今，份额暴增超9.5亿份。 资金流入方面，光伏ETF(159857)近5个交易日合计"吸金"2006.74万元，近10日净流入8853万元，居深市同类产品第一。 消息面上，7月3日，中国工业和信息化部召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展。会议强调，依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低 价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。加强国际合作，加快塑造我国下一代光伏产品的竞争优势，努力成 为全球光伏产业的技术 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源金属价格走势 趋强 新能源观点：硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，市场情绪转向偏乐观，新能源金属价格走势趋强。 中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，工业硅和多晶硅价格大幅上涨， 这在一定程度上对碳酸锂也构成较为正面的提振，后续密切留意产业 链动向；长期来看，低价或有望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能 出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅等，碳酸锂还处于产能兑现阶段，若锂 矿无实质性减产，长期过剩问题还将存在，这将限制价格上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策发酵，多晶硅价格震荡回升。 碳酸锂观点：仓单⼤量注销，碳酸锂⾛势偏强。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参 ...

文字早评 2025/07/08 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、特朗普威胁对金砖国家加征 10%新关税 外交部回应。 2、证监会官网显示，国产 DRAM 内存芯片大厂长鑫存储启动上市辅导，中金、中信建投担任辅导机构。 3、国金证券：公司旗下的国金证券(香港)有限公司正在筹备申请虚拟资产相关交易牌照。 4、欧元区 7 月 Sentix 投资者信心指数为 4.5，为 2022 年 2 月以来新高，预期 1.1，前值 0.2。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.51%/-0.95%/-1.19%/-2.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.70%/-1.63%/-2.59%/-4.69%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.95%/-2.20%/-3.41%/-6.33%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-0.85%/-0.86%/-0.87%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，中东地缘政治风险降温，市场风险偏好有所回升，外资持续看好中国资产；中美 贸易局势趋于缓和，关税政策的情绪性冲击减弱。国内方面，5 月经济数据总体平稳，消费表现亮眼， 投资继续放缓，工业生产凸显韧性。 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手，环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手，环比增 ...

Group 1 - The cement industry is undergoing the most stringent regulatory actions in history to address the long-standing issue of "capacity mismatch" [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a draft requiring companies to complete capacity rectification applications by the end of 2025, making government-approved capacity a core requirement for production licenses [1][3] - The China Cement Association has also mandated strict checks on the discrepancies between actual and registered capacities, with deadlines for compliance [1] Group 2 - The mismatch between registered and actual capacities has become a chronic issue, disrupting market order and intensifying internal competition [3] - The national cement capacity utilization rate has dropped below 53% in 2024, marking a historical low, with demand expected to decline by nearly 10% in 2024 and 5% to 8% in 2025 [3] - Current national cement capacity exceeds 3.6 billion tons, with clinker capacity over 1.8 billion tons, leading to a severe overcapacity situation [3] Group 3 - The cement industry has seen a significant reduction in new capacity due to falling demand and prices, with 12 clinker production lines totaling 17.67 million tons of annual capacity halted since 2025 [4] - The operating rate of clinker kilns has dropped to around 50%, with further declines anticipated as demand continues to decrease [4] Group 4 - The industry is exploring a combination of market-driven and policy-guided approaches to address overcapacity, focusing on balancing supply and demand and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Industry consolidation is viewed as a fundamental solution, with calls for supportive policies to encourage mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same region [5] - Since the end of 2024, merger and acquisition activities in the cement industry have accelerated, with several notable transactions announced [5][6] Group 5 - Conch Cement has indicated that the industry is entering a significant consolidation window amid weakening demand and increasing competition, planning to pursue quality acquisition projects in low-concentration markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is facing challenges in profitability due to low capacity utilization in its non-memory chip business [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The non-memory chip business of Samsung Electronics is experiencing low capacity utilization, which is negatively impacting its profitability [1] - The company is expected to continue facing pressure on margins as demand for non-memory chips remains weak [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing fluctuations in demand, particularly in the non-memory segment, affecting major players like Samsung [1] - The overall market conditions for non-memory chips are anticipated to remain challenging, influencing the operational strategies of companies within the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company disclosed its main operational data for the pig farming business in June 2025, highlighting significant increases in both sales volume and inventory levels compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Sales and Inventory Data - The sales volume of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.24 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.46% [2]. - The inventory level at the end of June 2025 was 54.70 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [2]. - The month-end inventory increased by 1.98% compared to May 2025 and was up 6.64% from December 2024 [2]. Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is actively optimizing its pig farming capacity by adjusting its farming layout, scale, and breed structure [2]. - The company will continue to adhere to a strategy focused on stability and cost reduction, concentrating resources on developing advantageous production capacity [2].

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].