Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced significant increases in February 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent crude averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI averaging $64.4 per barrel, marking increases of $4.7 and $4.2 respectively [1][13] - OPEC+ plans to restore production by 20,600 barrels per day starting April 2026, following a complete exit from voluntary production cuts by September 2025 [2][15] - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 850,000 to 1,380,000 barrels per day in 2026, with further growth expected in 2027 [3][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In February 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $69.4 per barrel, up $4.7 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $64.4 per barrel, up $4.2 [1][13] - The fluctuations in oil prices were influenced by geopolitical events, including the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and military actions in the region [1][13] Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 20,600 barrels per day starting April 2026, following a gradual exit from previous production cuts [2][15] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2026 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to range from $62 to $72 per barrel [4][38] Demand Forecast - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand in 2026, with estimates ranging from 106.52 million to 104.80 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 138,000 to 85,000 barrels per day compared to 2025 [3][19] - For 2027, demand is expected to grow further, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 128,000 barrels per day respectively [3][19] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, and Satellite Chemical, are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（3.2~3.6） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡下行，沪铜主力合约下跌2.76%，收报于101050元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存，中东事件再起风云。国内方面，消费将进入旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内 现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存284325吨，上周大幅增加，上期所 铜库存较上周增33616吨至425145吨。 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 期货主力 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 202 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the aluminum industry, particularly the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on aluminum supply and pricing dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply Crisis Due to Geopolitical Tensions** The Middle East conflict has triggered a supply crisis in electrolytic aluminum, with Qatar and Bahrain's aluminum industries declaring force majeure, affecting approximately 3% of global supply and driving aluminum prices to historical highs [1][3]. 2. **Energy and Logistics Constraints** The region's aluminum production capacity of 7 million tons (8.8% of global supply) faces dual constraints from energy and logistics, as electricity is 100% reliant on natural gas, and 90% of exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz [1][3]. 3. **Rising European Energy Prices** Qatar's LNG disruptions have pushed European gas prices above €50 per megawatt-hour, risking high-cost production cuts for around 600,000 tons of European capacity [1][2]. 4. **Valuation and Profitability** The current valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is approximately 10 times PE, at historical lows. If aluminum prices rise from 25,000 to 30,000 yuan per ton, profit per ton could increase by 70%, indicating significant earnings elasticity [1][15]. 5. **Short-term Price Outlook** In the next 1-2 months, aluminum prices are expected to rise, with recommendations to prioritize investments in companies with high energy self-sufficiency and integrated alumina production [1][2]. 6. **Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions** The conflict has led to direct production impacts, transportation disruptions, and external energy pressures, with the potential for further production cuts across the Middle East aluminum sector [3][6]. 7. **Logistics and Export Challenges** The Strait of Hormuz is critical for the region's aluminum supply chain, with 70%-80% of production intended for export. Any blockage would severely impact logistics and inventory management [7][9]. 8. **Raw Material Dependency** The Middle East's electrolytic aluminum industry has a high dependency on imported alumina, with approximately 70% reliance. A blockade could lead to significant production cuts due to raw material shortages [8][9]. 9. **Cost Implications of Geopolitical Tensions** Increased shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions are expected to elevate overall aluminum production costs, further supporting aluminum prices globally [9][10]. 10. **Long-term Supply Dynamics** The electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to remain tight over the next two years, with potential disruptions from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and new projects in Southeast Asia and Africa [12][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Sentiment on Dividend Increases** There is a strong market expectation for dividend increases, with some companies indicating intentions to raise dividends compared to 2025 levels [20][21]. 2. **Valuation Framework for Stocks** The current valuation framework for aluminum stocks is based on a 10 times PE ratio, with the potential for adjustments based on growth prospects and dividend expectations [22]. 3. **Investment Focus Areas** Investors are advised to focus on companies with high energy self-sufficiency and those that are less sensitive to external cost fluctuations, particularly in the context of rising energy prices [16][19]. 4. **Alumina Price Dynamics** The price of alumina is expected to remain stable due to logistical challenges and potential production cuts, with a significant correlation to the cost of production in the aluminum sector [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry amidst geopolitical tensions.

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues lead to an increase in crude oil prices, and concerns about production cuts by PX enterprises in South Korea and China affect PTA plant loads, resulting in a strong bullish sentiment in the PTA market and rising prices. The Asian PX market has a resurgence of speculative sentiment, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are in short supply. The polyester's operating load is lower than expected, and downstream operations after the Spring Festival are generally sluggish. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties [2]. - The tense situation in the Middle East causes market chaos. Northeast Asian refineries are highly dependent on crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these refineries face tight crude oil supplies and have to reduce their loads. Asian naphtha cracking units have large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. Domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in price due to concerns about reduced raw materials [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 664.1 yuan/barrel on March 5, 2026, to 664.8 yuan/barrel on March 6, 2026, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - The PTA - SC spread increased from 993.9 yuan/ton to 1238.8 yuan/ton, a change of 244.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2059 to 1.2564, a change of 0.0505 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 1055 to 1079, a change of 24; the PX - naphtha spread increased from 279 to 303, a change of 24 [2]. - PTA's main futures price increased from 5820 yuan/ton to 6070 yuan/ton, a change of 250 yuan/ton; the spot price increased from 5800 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, a change of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA's spot processing fee increased from 313.8 yuan/ton to 367.3 yuan/ton, a change of 53.5 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing fee increased from 323.8 yuan/ton to 447.3 yuan/ton, a change of 123.5 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG's main futures price increased from 4184 yuan/ton to 4377 yuan/ton, a change of 193 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 257.25 yuan/ton to - 236.44 yuan/ton, a change of 20.8 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG's domestic price increased from 4132 yuan/ton to 4267 yuan/ton, a change of 135 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate decreased from 88.08% to 83.68%, a change of - 4.40% [2]. - PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 79.81% [2]. - MEG operating rate decreased from 59.01% to 57.93%, a change of - 1.08% [2]. - Polyester load of POY150D/48F increased from 80.39% to 80.92%, a change of 0.53% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow Changes in the Polyester Industry - In polyester filament, the price of POY150D/48F increased from 7615 to 7700, a change of 85; the cash - flow decreased from 22 to 6, a change of - 16 [2]. - The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 7780 to 7910, a change of 130; the cash - flow increased from - 313 to - 284, a change of 29 [2]. - The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 8670 to 8745, a change of 75; the cash - flow decreased from - 123 to - 149, a change of - 26 [2]. - In polyester staple fiber, the price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple increased from 7235 to 7375, a change of 140; the cash - flow increased from - 8 to 31, a change of 39 [2]. - In polyester chips, the price of semi - bright chips increased from 6445 to 6600, a change of 155; the cash - flow increased from - 248 to - 194, a change of 54 [2]. Sales Ratios - The sales ratio of polyester filament remained unchanged at 107% [2]. - The sales ratio of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 93% [2]. - The sales ratio of polyester chips remained unchanged at 205% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has resumed normal operation. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 20 - 50% capacity, has resumed normal operation. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has resumed normal operation [2].

2026 年 3 月 9 日 LLDPE：裂解供应收缩预期持续，短期高度关 注地缘 PP：多种原料供应受限，上游开工收缩 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 | 货 | | L2605 | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 7691 | 4.03% | 1300327 | 18481 | 7797 | 4.55% | 1463696 | 17221 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | -101 | | 57 | | -77 | | 42 | | | 05-09合约价差 | 235 | | 152 | | 407 | | 277 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to strengthen significantly due to geopolitical influences. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production loads because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, but the physical supply is tight. The downstream replenishment is rapid, and the polyester operating load is lower than expected. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties. The floating spread of PX has reached +40, and the spread between PX and naphtha has rebounded to $300. Tensions in the Middle East bring short - term energy price fluctuation risks, and the upstream price increase has begun to be transmitted downstream [2]. Summary According to Relevant Data Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5800 to 5865, with a change of 65 [2]. - MEG inner - market price rose from 4132 to 4267, a change of 135 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 5820 to 6070, a change of 250 [2]. - MEG closing price rose from 4184 to 4377, a change of 193 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 7235 to 7375, a change of 140 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from - 67 to - 48, a change of 19 [2]. - 4 - 5 spread decreased from 12 to 0, a change of - 12 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price increased from 5540 to 5650, a change of 110 [2]. - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1695 to 1725, a change of 30 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6964 to 7039, a change of 75 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6964 to 7039, a change of 75 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 7064 to 7139, a change of 75 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 945 to 950, a change of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 621 to 595, a change of - 26 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 11350 to 11450, a change of 100 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4115 to 4075, a change of - 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 17200 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 16395 to 16400, a change of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1206 to 1111, a change of - 95 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7905 to 7955, a change of 50 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 362 to 311, a change of - 51 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 8470 [2]. Production and Operation Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 76.98% to 84.13%, a change of - 7.15% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from - 12.00% to 82.00%, a change of 70.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the raw material supply of refineries in Northeast Asia, resulting in reduced plant loads and a pulse - like increase in olefin products such as BD and BR. In the short term, prices are expected to rise, but if the situation eases, prices may fall. In the long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 to 14,100 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the market is mainly due to concerns about shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced imported crude oil resources in East Asia after the continuous escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. The increase in production costs has led to higher offer prices, and downstream terminal procurement has significantly followed up [6]. Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data unclear] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. During the week, plants such as Sierbang and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical was slightly delayed, with no significant overall change in domestic production [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Most cis - butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, except that the high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Yanshan Petrochemical was not operating at full capacity [3]. Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The market performance was relatively stable. After the Chinese New Year, there was regular replenishment in the domestic market. Individual dealer order fairs boosted the purchase demand of the distribution channels, and the retail purchase volume at the terminal increased significantly. Although exports were affected by the weakening markets in Europe and the Middle East, the EU has not yet implemented a temporary anti - dumping duty. The increase in raw material prices has led to increased cost pressure, and the expectation of price increases in the industry has risen, with some enterprises starting to withdraw price discounts for some specifications [3]. - **All - steel tires**: There was concentrated replenishment in the domestic market, and dealer order fairs boosted the enthusiasm for purchases. The overall purchase performance of the distribution channels was good. However, the export end was under significant pressure, with reduced shipments to the Middle East and European markets, and enterprises mainly focusing on Middle East orders faced greater pressure. The cost side was also supported by rising raw materials, narrowing the profit margins of enterprises, and there were increasing voices for price increases in the market. Subsequently, it is not ruled out that promotional policies will be tightened [3]. Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Some suppliers sold their goods at high prices, leading to a decrease in inventory. With a small amount of ships arriving at the port and normal consumption of downstream raw materials, the port inventory did not fluctuate much, and it is expected that the import volume in March may not increase significantly [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The market negotiation center increased, and transactions increased significantly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly. Last week, the combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 43,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80% [3]. Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 960 yuan/ton, in East China was - 860 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 860 yuan/ton [3]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was - 1190 yuan/ton, the NR - BR spread was 2075 yuan/ton, and the BR - SC price ratio was - 2.04% [3]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 2080 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 2795.35 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 739 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 5.23% [3]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - **Geopolitical conflicts**: The attack by the US and Israel on Iran led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and gold prices and violent fluctuations in global stock markets [3]. - **Chinese government policies**: The 2026 government work report set the GDP growth target at 4.5% - 5% and clearly focused on building emerging and future industries such as integrated circuits and low - altitude economy [3]. - **US policy trends**: The US plans to raise the global general tariff to 15% and nominate Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve [3]. - **Economic data**: China's manufacturing PMI in February fell to 49.0%, and the OECD warned that the issuance of government bonds by developed countries this year will reach a record high [3]. Investment Views - In the short term, prices are expected to rise. In the long - term, if the geopolitical situation eases, prices may fall, but in the medium - to - long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: Consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU layout [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market next week. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products are expected to perform strongly, while commodities sensitive to interest rates and worried about weakening demand may perform weakly. The expected order of performance is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Divergent Commodity Trends, Leading by Energy and Chemicals - This week (03.02 - 03.01), commodity trends were divergent. The performance order of sectors was energy > oil chemical > coal chemical > black > agricultural products > non - ferrous > precious metals. Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, supply - side disturbances persisted. On Monday, commodities generally rose, with energy, chemicals, and precious metals seeing large increases. From Tuesday, as the market revised up the expected duration of the war and inflation rose, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were revised down, causing precious metals and non - ferrous metals to fall, while energy and chemical products continued to rise [1][12] 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Dominance, Continued Strength in Energy and Chemicals - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market. The market has revised up the war duration, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with a low probability of short - term supply recovery. Geopolitical risks are increasing global stagflation pressure, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being revised down. Domestic policies announced during the Two Sessions are in line with market expectations. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products will remain strong, while some commodities sensitive to interest rates may be weak. The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 6, the US dollar index rose 1.34% to 98.9558, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 18BP to 4.15%. The Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spread was inverted by 237.3BP. The US - Iran war exceeded market expectations, leading to increased risk - aversion, rising oil and chemical prices, and a significant downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The slowdown in the US February non - farm employment data may intensify concerns about stagflation. The RMB's appreciation pace slowed [22] 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz transportation was severely affected, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices. The resonance of energy substitution, cost transmission, rising transportation costs, and increased market risk - aversion also led to an increase in coking coal prices [27] 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased, while the daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased. The production of copper tubes and electrolytic aluminum in China increased. The EIA US crude oil production data was presented. The methanol capacity utilization rate decreased, the PE capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate decreased, the operating rate of Chinese soda ash enterprises slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises was low, the operating rates of automobile tire all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, and the production of soybean meal from Chinese full - sample enterprises' pressing plants increased [33][36][52] 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - Gold and silver inventories decreased slightly. Most industrial product inventories continued to accumulate above the seasonal level. Inventories of copper, iron ore, methanol, PVC, soda ash, glass, etc. were at historical highs, and inventories of aluminum and steel were also increasing significantly. The key to inventory reduction is whether demand can improve significantly [53] 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - This year's growth - stabilization goals are pragmatic, with more attention on development quality, economic structure adjustment, and long - term development potential. The real - estate market data was divergent this week: the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased slightly, the sales area in first - tier cities increased but at a slower pace, and second - hand housing listing prices declined. However, the second - hand housing listing volume was low, and the second - hand housing transaction area continued to rise. This week, the issuance and net financing scale of government bonds decreased, and the cumulative net financing of government bonds this year was at a historical high. The subway passenger volume in the top ten cities and the apparent consumption of rebar increased seasonally [74][75][76] 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - Data on the basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal were presented [86][89][92] 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - Data on various commodity price ratios such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were presented [96][99][103] 3.9 Summary and Outlook - The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [3][104]

Group 1: Geopolitical Insights - The US-Iran conflict has highlighted the vulnerability of global energy supply chains, significantly impacting European countries and emerging economies, while the dollar has experienced a temporary rebound[3] - Compared to other non-US assets, Chinese assets may emerge as the optimal choice, with the RMB appreciating more against the USD this year, indicating a shift in asset price narratives towards China and the US[3] - Commodity prices are driven by political factors rather than economic fundamentals, with a continued positive outlook for scarce small metals, while basic metals show limited price increases[3] Group 2: Economic Data Overview - Post-holiday production indicators are recovering, with notable improvements in high furnace operation rates and rebar production rates, showing a narrowing of year-on-year negative growth[4] - The oil transportation index (BDTI) has surged to a year-on-year increase of 250%, up from 126% the previous week, indicating significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions[4] - Inflation remains politically driven, with pork prices showing a double-digit year-on-year decline, while prices for geopolitically sensitive commodities like oil and gold have risen significantly[18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The foreign exchange market has seen significant volatility, with the USD strengthening against non-USD currencies, including the Euro and Yen, due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East[21] - The 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated around 1.8%, slightly declining this week, reflecting market responses to expectations of monetary easing[21] - Upcoming data releases on inflation, trade, and social financing are expected to provide critical insights into economic trends as the data vacuum period concludes[23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium suffered a significant pullback. The soaring energy prices and the rise of crude oil prices above $90 per barrel had a siphon effect on speculative funds, significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. However, there are still uncontrollable geopolitical risks, and positive factors remain. [8][9] - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The shrinking supply, rising industrial demand, and relatively low prices have stabilized the demand for jewelry and investment, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will still exist in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic. [9] - For palladium, automobile demand dominates. Due to the sharp increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the incremental demand for palladium is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by the linkage with platinum and the macro - environment. Overall, without significant changes in fundamentals, it may move in sync with the trend of precious metals. [9] - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term, and short - term fluctuations are large. For options, a double - buying strategy is suggested for reference. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Platinum and Palladium Trends**: Last Friday, the main platinum and palladium contracts fell under pressure. The main platinum contract closed down 1.2% at 560.5, and the main palladium contract closed down 1.79% at 421.5. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down last week, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium fell under pressure. The spot platinum in the outer market closed at 2164.1 early on Saturday, and the spot palladium closed at 1622.6. The weekly declines of domestic platinum and palladium were 10.14% and 9.33% respectively. [8] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8 and the previous value of 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI remaining in an expansionary range for the second consecutive month. In terms of employment, the US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak US employment data still keeps the market's hope for the Fed's interest rate cut. However, the rise in crude oil prices further intensifies inflation concerns, and the market continues to postpone the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed will hold a meeting on March 18, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the first interest rate cut is expected to be in July. [8] - **News**: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large - scale air strike on Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader and many senior military and political officials. Iran then counterattacked the US military bases in the Gulf and Israel, and some Middle Eastern countries were affected. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted, and the Iranian Self - Defense Forces reiterated the closure of the strait and claimed "full control." Energy prices soared, and the crude oil price rose above $90 per barrel, having a siphon effect on speculative funds and significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. [8] - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the supply and demand of platinum and palladium are expected to show obvious differentiation. Platinum supply is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diversified, with automobile exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly, and emerging fields such as the hydrogen energy industry and commercial aerospace have opened up long - term growth space. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will continue in 2026 and may further widen. Palladium's terminal demand is highly dependent on automobile exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a supply gap in the short term, it is expected that the gap will narrow significantly in 2026, and the fundamental support is relatively limited. [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided, including the futures and spot price trends of platinum and palladium in NYMEX, London, Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showing the price trends of platinum and palladium in different markets. [13][17][21][25] 3. US Economy - Multiple charts are provided, including the trends of US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate, reflecting the overall economic situation of the United States. [31][32] 4. Inflation - Charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE are provided, showing the inflation situation in the United States. [38] 5. Interest Rates - Charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates are provided, reflecting the interest rate situation in the United States. [47][48] 6. Fundamentals - **Platinum**: The global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of platinum in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026. [53] - **Palladium**: The global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025 is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of palladium in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will narrow significantly in 2026. [54] 7. Futures Positioning - Charts of the futures position of platinum and palladium in the outer market are provided, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions, reflecting the market's trading sentiment towards platinum and palladium. [55] 8. Passenger Car Sales - Charts of China's passenger car market retail and wholesale data are provided, showing the sales situation of the passenger car market. [62] 9. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - US dollar exchange rate, US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Canadian dollar exchange rate are provided, reflecting the exchange rate situation. [68][71][74][76] 10. Platinum and Palladium Price Differences between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Charts of the spot price trends and price differences of platinum between domestic and foreign markets are provided, showing the price differences of platinum in different markets. [85] 11. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - A chart of the platinum - palladium ratio is provided, showing the price ratio relationship between platinum and palladium. [94]