10:00 中国贸促会召开7月例行新闻发布会 15:00 商务部召开7月第4次例行新闻发布会 【财经日历】 09:30 中国7月官方制造业PMI 20:30 美国截至7月26日当周初请失业金人数 | | 盘前必读 | 外盘怎么样 // | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44461.28 | -171.71 | -0.38% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21129.67 c | 31.38 | 0.15% | | 标普500 | 6362.90 | -7.96 | -0.12% | 机构认为，央行超预期货币宽松，公开市场持续投放流动性，或带动A股中期走强。 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌0.12%。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.82%，热门中概股多数下跌，蔚来、新东方跌超4%，理想汽车跌超3%，拼多多、小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴、京东跌超1%。 美国第 ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is negotiating with the Trump administration to resolve tariff conflicts, with a deadline set for August 1 [1] - Major Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles face high tariff threats, but approximately 80% of exports to the U.S. meet the USMCA's duty-free standards [1] - Economists predict that even if a new agreement is reached, it may not completely eliminate Canada's tariff burdens [1] Group 2 - National Bank Financial's economist Ethan Currie suggests that the new agreement is unlikely to fully relieve Canada's tariff pressures, predicting that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates up to two more times due to ongoing trade uncertainties [1] - Conversely, Royal Bank of Canada's economist Claire Fan believes that the Bank of Canada will not further lower interest rates, arguing that the effects of previous rate cuts have not fully transmitted to the economy [1] - Fan also indicates that the upcoming fall budget from the Liberal government may allocate hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars in new spending to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing-driven economy [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

一、央行突击降准的牛市！央行开展1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作，其中，3个月（91天）期操作量8000亿元，6个月（182天）期操作量6000亿元。只不过更 多的后续刺激，可能要在美联储三四季度正式开始降息，我们这边的进一步宽松刺激才会落地。 在目前低利率的宏观环境下，如果财政和货币刺激先后落地，我们后续很可能会迎来924的2.0版本。因为从结构性分化到盈利效应带动增量资金进入，其实 也就差了中间财政刺激和货币宽松这把火。 当然了，这里还是那句话，不管是回顾历史还是对比现在，里面很多都是个人的主观看法和记录。这些看法和记录本身并不一定对，未来也会随着实际情况 的变化，不断的进行修正。 二、A股市场整体行情还是比较乐观的，到目前为止都没有一根大阴线，如果有是不错的上车机会。 关于后市，A股周线已经五连阳，下周收月线，月线也是阳线，月线三连阳，这都是后市长期多头的形态。 质疑牛市的声音不多了，但涨的并不快，3674高点可能8月份就过去了。7月底还有重要的消息面，下周四之前应该会出公告，也是个潜在利好催化。 但是，跌到最近的关键点位后，依旧有望在增量资金入场和板块轮动时期继续拉升。加上，大盘的2024年至今的高点虽在 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Derivatives Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, with a net capital injection of over one trillion yuan in the past week, leading to a decline in capital interest rates and supporting the bond market [3] Bearish Factors - Economic data shows marginal improvement, with industrial added - value in June exceeding expectations. The fundamental recovery is negative for the bond market [3] - Fiscal policy and anti - involution regulation are strengthened, increasing policy - related bearish pressure [3] Trading Advisory View - Treasury bond futures will continue to show a volatile trend, with no obvious trend - based opportunities. It is recommended that both long and short positions wait and see [3] Group 3: Market Data Treasury Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from April 2024 to April 2025 [4] Capital Interest Rates - It shows the trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase of deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day terms, as well as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from August 2023 to April 2025 [4] Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from April 2024 to April 2025 are presented [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Open Interest**: The open interest trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from December 2015 to December 2023 are shown [7] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from April 2024 to April 2025 are presented [8] Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are shown [9][10][11][14] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [16][17][18] - **Cross - product Spread**: The cross - product spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are shown [19][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Current fundamentals and policies offer little guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, and the rising market risk appetite suppresses the bond market. It's advisable to trade bonds based on stock market performance and beware of additional selling pressure from bond fund and wealth management redemptions [11]. - Long - term: Considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand, the expectation of monetary easing may rise again in October as external demand risks become more apparent in the third quarter, tariff negotiation results are clarified, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the anti - involution measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the bond market trend may reverse. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side reform policies and the strength of demand recovery [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continues. The strong performance of commodity futures and the announcement on inflation - related policies may boost inflation expectations, leading to a wider decline in Treasury bond futures in the late session [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen, mostly by 3 - 4bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond 250011 reached 1.735%, up 2.9bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The capital market is stable with rising prices. There were 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates have risen significantly, while medium - and long - term funds remain stable and loose [10]. 3.2 Industry News - An economic and trade meeting between China and the US will be held in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises [13]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th, with an increase in the proportion of "zero - tariff" goods [13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take measures to address issues in the pig industry [13]. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly renovated, and 25,000 are planned for the whole year [14]. - Bank deposit interest rates continue to decline [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and fiscal strategies [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy not aligning with his "big fiscal" plans [2]. - The "Big Beautiful Plan" passed on July 4 is expected to increase federal debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, potentially rising to $5.5 trillion if temporary tax cuts are made permanent [2]. - The projected deficit rate during Trump's second term could remain around 6.5%-7%, with the Treasury expected to issue approximately $1.2 trillion in net debt in Q3, leading to potential liquidity tightening [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Dismissing the Fed Chair - The rules regarding the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman by the President are ambiguous, with the Chairman serving a 4-year term but as a board member for 14 years [4]. - Historical instances show that while four Fed Chairs have resigned under political pressure, there has been no direct dismissal by a President [4]. - The Supreme Court has affirmed the Fed's unique structure and independence, indicating that the President cannot dismiss the Chairman due to policy disagreements [4]. Group 3: Historical Challenges to Fed Independence - The Fed's independence has faced significant challenges historically, notably during the Great Depression and the Nixon administration, where political pressures led to a loss of monetary policy control [6]. - The article notes that during periods of fiscal dominance, such as the 60s and 70s, the Fed's independence was notably weakened, with higher inflation tolerated under political pressure [6]. Group 4: Implications of Potential Fed Chair Departure - If the Fed Chair were to leave early, it could negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold prices, with historical precedents showing a weakening dollar and rising gold prices following similar events [8]. - The article suggests that if the current Fed Chair completes their term, the anticipated issuance of $1.2 trillion in debt could still lead to liquidity pressures, prompting the Fed to restart quantitative easing, benefiting both the stock market and gold [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to factors such as high US tariffs, potential Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks [1]. - Silver is likely to have a strong - level range. Trump's tariff on Mexico impacts silver mine costs, and fiscal stimulus boosts industrial demand [1][3]. - Copper is expected to fluctuate. Although there may be short - term inventory and demand issues, long - term prospects are positive due to global copper shortages [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are uncertainties in global economy and demand [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure because of increased supply and insufficient downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the slow复产 of mines and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure due to high production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - Nickel is in a weak position. Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - Industrial silicon may rebound, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to trade in a high - level range, with policy expectations and price feedback loops driving the market [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level range. Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price, but inventory build - up remains a concern [1][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: High US tariffs, possible Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Future uncertainties are high, suitable for strategic allocation [1]. - **Price Range**: [765 - 795] [1] Silver - **Core View**: Strong - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Trump's 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods from August 1st affects Mexican silver mines. Silver's industrial use in solar panels also provides support [1][3]. - **Price Range**: [9000 - 9375] [1] Copper - **Core View**: Fluctuate [1] - **Main Logic**: The impact of US copper import tariffs is fading. There are short - term inventory and demand issues, but long - term supply shortages are expected due to global copper mine tensions [1][6]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai copper [77500, 79500]; London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. There are uncertainties in global economy and demand, and LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [1][9]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400]; London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9] Lead - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Increased supply of primary and recycled lead in July, insufficient downstream consumption, and inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [16700 - 17300] [1] Tin - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Slow复产 of mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [260000 - 269000] [1] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: High production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - **Price Range**: [20000 - 20600] [1] Nickel - **Core View**: Weak [1] - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - **Price Range**: [118000 - 121000] [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core View**: Rebound [1] - **Main Logic**: Rumors of canceled electricity subsidies and复产 cancellation are positive, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - **Price Range**: [8530 - 8800] [1] Polysilicon - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Policy expectations and price feedback loops drive the market, but high prices and margin hikes on the exchange increase volatility [1]. - **Price Range**: [40900 - 42500] [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price. Although the fundamentals are improving marginally, inventory build - up continues [1][14]. - **Price Range**: [65300 - 67000] [1]

Price Overview - On July 15, the mainstream transaction price for 0 zinc in Shanghai ranged from 22,180 to 22,300 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50-60 CNY/ton for the 2508 contract [1] - The national zinc price list shows various prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,200 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 21,930 CNY/ton [2] Futures Market - The closing price for the main zinc futures contract on July 15 was 22,085 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%, with a daily trading volume of 119,038 lots [2] Inventory and Production Insights - As of July 15, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse receipts at 91,975 tons, with a decrease of 2,575 tons in canceled receipts and an increase of 5,200 tons in total zinc inventory to 118,600 tons [3] - A zinc smelting plant in Central China plans a routine maintenance for half a month in August, expected to impact around 1,500 tons, while also planning to increase production capacity by 20,000 tons in Q4 or early next year [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Wenkang Futures, the short-term outlook is influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to heightened expectations for monetary easing and a stronger silver price [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry has a limited consumption share of zinc ingots, recent industrial policies have boosted market bullish sentiment, with polysilicon and other related products performing relatively strongly [4] - The overall commodity market sentiment appears strong, with zinc prices expected to exhibit a volatile trend [4]

Group 1: Credit and Social Financing Overview - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion, exceeding expectations of 1.84 trillion and the previous month's 620 billion, but lower than the seasonal average of 2.66 trillion[1][6] - New social financing (社融) reached 4.2 trillion, surpassing the expected 3.71 trillion and the previous month's 2.29 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion[1][8] - The stock social financing growth rate increased to 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1][8] Group 2: Structural Insights - Credit expansion remains heavily reliant on "fiscal-driven" support, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing growth[2][3] - New government bonds issued in June totaled 1.35 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.03 trillion, indicating strong fiscal support[8] - The corporate sector showed weak investment willingness, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by 910 billion year-on-year, despite short-term loans increasing by 1.16 trillion[2][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economic pressures are expected to manifest in the second half of 2025 due to increasing export challenges and a weakening real estate market[1][5] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates later in the year[1][5] - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is projected to be around 5%, but potential negative impacts from external demand and tariffs could affect future performance[5][6]