Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in non-bank deposits by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, has sparked significant market interest, with differing opinions among analysts regarding the reasons behind this growth [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Non-Bank Deposit Increase - One perspective suggests that the increase in non-bank deposits is primarily due to the growth in stock account margins, as residents shift their savings into brokerage margin accounts and equity mutual funds [3]. - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the increase in non-bank deposits correlates with a decrease in resident deposits, which grew by only 110 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan. This shift is attributed to the active capital market environment [3]. - Another viewpoint from Everbright Securities indicates that the "wealth effect" from a strong equity market has led to a transfer of resident deposits into non-bank deposits, with trading volumes in the stock market nearing peak levels [4]. Group 2: Alternative Explanations - Some analysts, like those from Xinda Securities, argue that the increase in non-bank deposits may also stem from a rising willingness to hold cash in non-bank products, especially given the weak bond market conditions in August [5]. - Huaxi Securities highlights that while the stock market's performance has driven some deposits into brokerage accounts, the overall speed of capital inflow into the market may not meet expectations, as evidenced by the number of new stock accounts opened in August [5]. - Additionally, data from the top 14 wealth management companies shows a net increase in their balances, suggesting that a portion of the funds may have flowed into non-bank deposits from wealth management products [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical analysis by Galaxy Securities indicates that signs of a "deposit migration" are emerging, with a continuous decline in resident deposit growth and a potential shift towards equity assets [7]. - The correlation between non-bank deposit growth and the performance of the CSI 300 index has been noted, suggesting that the recent increase in non-bank deposits may reflect a broader trend in the equity market [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the trend of residents' deposits decreasing while non-bank deposits are increasing, indicating a shift of funds towards financial products and capital markets [2][3] - In August, despite a strong A-share market, the growth of non-bank deposits slowed down, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2][4] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, residents' deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift of funds [2] - In August, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan but a month-on-month decrease of nearly 1 trillion yuan [2][4] - The trend of residents moving deposits to non-bank financial institutions is continuing but at a slower pace, suggesting potential changes in investor behavior [2][5] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rise from 3,562 points on August 1 to 3,871 points on August 26, leading many to believe that the market had entered a bull phase [3] - Despite the bullish market, the slowdown in non-bank deposit growth raises questions about investor confidence and potential profit-taking behavior [5][6] Group 3: Financial Products and Investment Behavior - The scale of bank wealth management products remained stable, with a slight increase in August, indicating continued interest in these investment vehicles [4][5] - The majority of bank wealth management investments are still in bonds, which have experienced volatility, yet there remains a preference for stable investment products among residents [5][6] - The overall trend of decreasing deposit rates is expected to continue, which may further encourage the movement of funds into the stock market over the long term [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in financial behavior, termed "wealth migration," where individuals are moving their savings from bank accounts to investment vehicles like stocks and funds [2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Recent financial data indicates a decline in resident deposits for two consecutive months, suggesting a trend where individuals are no longer keeping their money locked in banks [4][6]. - Non-bank deposits have surged, with an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in August, indicating a strong movement of funds from bank accounts to investment accounts [6]. Group 2: M1 and M2 Dynamics - The difference between M1 (liquid money) and M2 (more stable deposits) has narrowed, reflecting increased activity in liquid funds as individuals shift from saving to investing [8]. - The rise in M1 activity is attributed to a booming stock market and decreasing bank deposit interest rates, prompting individuals to seek better returns through investments [8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Despite the strong inflow of funds into the stock market, overall loan demand remains low, indicating a cautious approach among consumers who prefer saving over borrowing [10]. - The phenomenon of "more saving, less borrowing" highlights a general reluctance to spend, with consumers waiting for more favorable economic conditions before increasing their consumption [10][12]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The government is actively trying to stimulate consumption through various measures like consumption vouchers and subsidized loans, aiming to encourage a shift from saving to spending [10][12]. - The ongoing economic situation resembles a game of "funds migration," where money circulates between savings, investments, and consumption, filled with strategic decisions [12].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden surge, approaching 3900 points, despite a decline in trading volume from an average of nearly 3 trillion to 2.3 trillion [1] - The AI computing sector significantly boosted the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which rose by 5.5% [1] - Concerns about whether the shrinking volume indicates a trap or an opportunity are prevalent among investors [1] Fund Flows - Margin trading accounted for 11.5% of total trading volume, with a weekly net inflow of 51.8 billion, more than double the previous week [1] - Industry-themed ETFs attracted 101 billion over the past four weeks, indicating that investors are not withdrawing but rather seeking direction [1][3] Economic Indicators - August CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from last year, particularly in food prices [4] - Core CPI rose to 0.9%, indicating stable recovery in domestic demand [4] - PPI showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month stability and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing from -3.6% in previous months [4][6] Sector Analysis - Upstream industries such as coal, oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant PPI improvements, supported by recent anti-involution policies [6] - The recovery in upstream sectors is expected to positively impact the entire industrial chain, providing fundamental support for A-shares [6] External Environment - The U.S. is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for two more cuts this year [8] - A weaker dollar and increased liquidity may lead to foreign capital flowing into emerging markets, including Chinese assets [8] - Sectors such as internet stocks in Hong Kong, and financial, consumer, and new energy sectors in A-shares may benefit from foreign inflows [8] Investment Strategy - The market is in a slow bull consolidation phase, with no signs of a funding collapse or disruption in high-growth sectors [9] - Focus on sectors with policy support or PPI recovery, such as pig farming, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals [11] - Key signals to monitor include the continued rise of core CPI and the pace of foreign capital inflows [11]

Financing Data - In August 2025, the social financing scale increased by 25,668 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,655 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] - Cumulative social financing for the first eight months of 2025 reached 265,575 billion yuan, an increase of 46,567 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong overall performance supported by government bond issuance[2] - New bills increased by 1,973 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1,322 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of 3,611 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in short-term financing demand from the real economy[2] Credit and Loan Data - New RMB loans in August amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, an increase of 6,400 billion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - Short-term loans for enterprises showed significant improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 2,600 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 billion yuan, indicating heightened business activity[3] - Resident short-term loans increased by 3932 billion yuan month-on-month, driven by seasonal consumption demand and supportive consumption policies[3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8% in August, supported by fiscal policy and reasonable growth in social financing and loans[3] - M1 growth rate increased to 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting improved business activity and increased liquidity for enterprises[3] - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 2.8%, indicating enhanced liquidity and operational efficiency among enterprises[3] Deposit Trends - Household deposits decreased by 600 billion yuan year-on-year in August, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 5,500 billion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" towards non-bank sectors[5] - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue due to declining deposit interest rates and attractive returns in the capital market, with A-share new account openings reaching 2.65 million in August, a 35% month-on-month increase[5][17]

Core Insights - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" indicates a shift of funds from banks to investment markets, particularly during the bullish trend in the A-share market in July and August, where the index surpassed the 3700-point mark, reflecting increased market optimism [1][3] Group 1: Deposit Migration Dynamics - In July and August, there was a notable decrease of 1.01 trillion yuan in resident deposits, while non-bank financial institution deposits increased by over 3.3 trillion yuan, suggesting a significant movement of funds [1] - The current A-share market environment suggests that the migration of deposits to the stock market is likely to result in a substantial influx of new capital, which could further support market growth [3] Group 2: Market Structure and Investor Behavior - The current market dynamics indicate that profits are often derived from the losses of others, as many companies' earnings do not align with stock price increases, highlighting the speculative nature of the market [3] - The recent deposit migration differs from previous instances, as the funds are primarily directed towards leading industry stocks, similar to the "Tech Seven" in the US market, with a focus on concentrated investments through ETFs [3][4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - While the deposit migration is seen as a positive sign of increased capital in the stock market, it does not necessarily provide a favorable guide for market direction, as the A-share market has experienced structural differentiation, akin to trends seen in Hong Kong and US markets [4] - The current market sentiment should be approached with caution, as excessive optimism may lead to volatility, evidenced by the market entering a consolidation phase in late August and September [4]

市场人士分析认为，尽管当前大额存单利率较活期、定期存款具有明显优势，部分产品利率达到1.8%、1.9%，但与去年同期相比仍存在差异。2023年九、 十月份，中信银行、浙商银行等全国性商业银行发行的大额存单利率普遍在2.1%以上，部分地方银行产品利率甚至高达3%。 值得注意的是，多家银行高管在2025年中期业绩会上表示，在净息差压力下，将严格控制甚至停止大额存单发行。然而，近期却出现多家银行密集推出相对 高息大额存单产品的现象。 【环球网财经综合报道】近日下午，交通银行山东省分行通过微信公众号发布消息，推出1年期利率1.40%、3年期利率1.65%的大额存单产品，起存金额20 万元，销售时间从本月初持续至9月30日。 除此之外，上周五晚间，吐鲁番邮政微信公众号发布公告称，邮储银行大额存单将于9月26日9点正式发行，1年期利率1.25%，起存金额20万元。同日，大 连银行成都分行也通过微信公众号宣布，将推出年利率达1.90%的三年期大额存单产品，接近2%的关键节点，这一利率水平明显高于当前主流国有大行和股 份行同类产品。据不完全统计，近一周内，包括江苏银行无锡分行、山西左云农商行、广东华兴银行等多家银行机构均通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for August indicates a weak demand for financing in the real economy, with signs of improvement in corporate long-term investments, while consumer confidence remains low, leading to a "deposit migration" phenomenon influenced by the performance of the capital market [12][13]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - The total social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations, but decreased by 463 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first decline in the year [3][5]. - New RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, remaining at a low level compared to previous years [3][5]. - Government bond net financing was 1.37 trillion yuan, becoming a drag on social financing for the first time in ten months due to a high base effect from last year [5][12]. Group 2: Credit Structure and Consumer Behavior - Resident loans increased by 30.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [6][8]. - Consumer confidence index is low, and the employment outlook index has hit a new low since March 2020, limiting residents' willingness to leverage [6][8]. - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy started in September, and its effects are yet to be observed [8]. Group 3: Corporate Loan Trends - Non-financial corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan, with short-term loans showing a seasonal improvement for the first time in five years [8][12]. - The increase in short-term loans may be related to a recovery in production sentiment, while the decline in medium to long-term loan growth is slowing down [8][12]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, remaining stable, while M1's growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.0%, narrowing the gap between M2 and M1 to a 51-month low [11][12]. - In August, RMB deposits increased by 2.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" from residents to non-bank deposits [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The pace of government bond issuance will continue to impact social financing growth, with a projected decrease in net issuance in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year [12][13]. - The key factor for a rebound in private sector credit demand hinges on the stabilization of the real estate market and improvements in income expectations [13]. - The central bank's continued support and liquidity remain strong, suggesting that structural market trends may persist [13].

Core Insights - The central theme of the analysis is the notable shift in financial data released by the central bank, particularly highlighting the phenomenon of "deposit migration" as evidenced by a decline in resident deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits [1] Group 1: Financial Data Analysis - In August, resident deposits experienced a seasonal decline for two consecutive months, marking the first occurrence since 2025 [1] - Non-bank deposits saw an increase of 1.18 trillion, setting a new record for the same period since data collection began [1] - The relationship between resident and non-bank deposits has shown a "seesaw" effect, indicating a change in the asset structure of residents [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of unchanged risk preferences, deposit "migration" follows a sequence from pure - bond wealth management products and money market funds to bond funds and equity funds. Pure - bond wealth management products are the main recipients of migrated deposits, followed by money market funds. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness structure, and equity funds are mostly outside the deposit migration path. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow choices and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure change. The effectiveness of quantity - based indicators such as excess reserves decreases, while the risk of short - term shock to inter - bank liquidity increases, but the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is supportive [1][34][44]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1 Capital Cross - market Rotation and Its Impact on Bond Market Liquidity 1.1 Cost - effectiveness as an Important Consideration for Deposit "Migration" - Due to the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, both household and corporate deposits are migrating. Households are affected by the decline in deposit interest rates, while enterprises are more affected by the ban on manual interest - supplement policies. Insurance products, pure - bond wealth management products, and bond funds have attracted migrated funds due to their yield advantages [12][15][16]. 1.2 Risk Preferences May Disturb the Direction of Deposit "Migration" - When risk preferences are stable, pure - bond wealth management products have the strongest ability to absorb migrated deposits, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 between the spread of their yields over deposits and the difference between their scale growth rate and deposit growth rate. Money market funds rank second with a correlation of 0.64. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness, and equity funds are less involved in deposit migration. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow changes, and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure becomes more complex [1][23][34]. 2 Important Matters - In August 2025, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year; PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In August, M1 growth continued to pick up, and government bonds were the main support for social financing. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 6000 - billion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation on September 15, 2025 [55][56][59]. 3 Money Market 3.1 Open - market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From September 8 to 12, 2025, the central bank net - injected 1961 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. It is expected that 13845 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from September 15 to 19. Bank - to - bank liquidity tightened marginally last week, and DR001 first rose and then fell [61][67]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net financing scale of - 4680.1 billion yuan last week. The issuance scale of joint - stock banks was the largest, but they also had a net financing deficit. The issuance interest rate of certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors increased due to the marginal tightening of the money market [70][74][79]. 4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the main supply of interest - rate bonds last week was still treasury bonds, with a total issuance scale of 5663.7 billion yuan and a net financing scale of 4155.9 billion yuan. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of September 12, the cumulative net financing scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 was 1.97 trillion yuan. In the secondary market, the bond market was in a weak mood last week, with the curve becoming steeper. The daily average turnover rate of active bonds increased, and the liquidity premium of 10 - year treasury bonds widened [83][90][95]. 5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.31 trillion yuan, and the average leverage trading scale was about 7.49 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks turned from selling to buying, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, while securities firms and funds sold bonds. In July 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market decreased seasonally [111][119][122].