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Group 1: Market Information - CF01 contract closed at 13490 with a 5-point increase, trading volume was 26,963 (down 25175), and open interest was 136,971 (up 850) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13475 with no change, trading volume was 207 (down 569), and open interest was 2,554 (up 66) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13520 with a 25-point increase, trading volume was 170,148 (down 94667), and open interest was 538,557 (up 96) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19820 with a 75-point decrease, trading volume was 5, and open interest was 35 (up 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18550 with no change, trading volume and open interest were both 0 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19725 with a 15-point decrease, trading volume was 7180 (up 1568), and open interest was 16083 (up 1669) [3] - CCIndex3128B price was 14620 yuan/ton, up 59; CY IndexC32S price was 20300, down 770 [3] - Cot A price was 78.00 cents/pound, up 0.25; FCY IndexC33S price was 21809, down 6 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 77.49, up 0.20; Indian S-6 price was 54000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber price was 7450, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S price was 11180, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber price was 12650, down 150; viscose yarn R30S price was 17250, unchanged [3] - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was 15, up 5; cotton 5 - 9 month spread was -45, down 25; cotton 9 - 1 month spread was 30, up 20 [3] - Cotton yarn 1 - 5 month spread was 1270, down 75; cotton yarn 5 - 9 month spread was -1175, up 15; cotton yarn 9 - 1 month spread was -95, up 60 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6330, down 80; CY05 - CF05 spread was 5075, unchanged; CY09 - CF09 spread was 6205, down 40 [3] - 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 802, up 16; sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 127, up 40; internal - external yarn spread was -1509, down 764 [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of June 7, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4% (98% of the area), up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, compared with 1.7% last year [6] - As of June 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average [6] - The cotton budding rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average [6] - The cotton good - to - excellent rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [6] - Cotton spot trading remained sluggish, sales basis was firm, some low - basis decreased, but the mainstream range changed little [7] - The trading logic is mainly macro - oriented, with large uncertainties in tariff issues. Short - term range - bound oscillation is expected, and medium - to - long - term cotton may continue to decline [8] - For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate stronger in the short term [9] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Cotton Yarn Industry - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton rose, some spinning mills raised quotes, but market trading was light in the off - season, and downstream acceptance of price increases was low [11] - If the macro situation is favorable and cotton prices continue to rise, cotton yarn may follow, but profit is expected to deteriorate [11] - The overall situation of the cotton grey fabric market changed little, demand was weak, prices were stable, and orders were negotiated based on quantity [11] - Conventional plain cloth shipments were slow, inventory increased, and home textile mills' orders were worse than before and not good in the future [11] Group 3: Options - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 282.00, up 34.9%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 28.00, down 69.6%, with an implied volatility of 12.0% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 18.00, down 75.3%, with an implied volatility of 14.6% [13] - Today's 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5891, slightly lower than the previous day [13] - The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.9536, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.7091. Both call and put trading volumes increased, and the market was bearish [14] - It is recommended to wait and see for options [15] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][23][25][29]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/6/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 785.00 | +5.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1349.00 | +10.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 696552.00 | +14601.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 58010.00 | +305.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -11422.00 | +23135.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | 1245.00 | +465.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 6.50 | -7.00↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 15.50 | -5.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 80.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, the general sentiment for the energy and chemical industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), with some品种having "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias) outlooks. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a weakening reality, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to move sideways. The weak domestic economic data in May, including deflation trends and mixed trade data, are the main reasons for the adjustment in the domestic chemical market. However, the relatively stable oil prices limit the downside space for chemicals [1][2][3]. - Crude oil supply surplus expectations remain, but short - term macro and geopolitical factors support prices. OPEC + production increases have not fully met the quota, which helps ease short - term supply concerns, but the cumulative effect of production increases in the second half of the year may lead to a supply surplus [5]. - Different品种in the energy and chemical sector have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are expected to move sideways or sideways with a weak bias. For example, LPG demand is weak, asphalt prices are expected to fall, and PTA supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply surplus expectations remain, and prices are influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. On June 9, SC2507 closed at 474.3 yuan/barrel (+1.76%), and Brent2508 closed at 67.13 dollars/barrel (+0.72%). - **Main Logic**: Macro and geopolitical factors boost short - term prices. Saudi Arabia's actual production increase in May was less than the quota, which eases short - term supply concerns. However, the supply surplus is expected in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of OPEC + production increases. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to move sideways under the balance of OPEC + production pressure and macro - geopolitical support [5]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: Demand is weak, and the upward rebound space is limited. On June 9, PG 2507 closed at 4116 yuan/ton (+0.44%). - **Main Logic**: Domestic refinery maintenance is ending, and supply is increasing. High temperatures reduce domestic combustion demand, and PDH device operating rates are slightly declining, with limited propane demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move sideways at the bottom in the short term [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are expected to fall. The main asphalt futures closed at 3509 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3650 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3695 yuan/ton respectively. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases are driven by geopolitical factors, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, inventory in Shandong is decreasing, but cracking spreads are high, and production in South China is increasing. Demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued. - **Outlook**: The probability of inventory reduction, basis, and calendar spread increases is high, but the absolute price is overvalued [5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The cracking spread is falling. The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2943 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases due to sentiment, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. China's fuel oil import tariff increase and the substitution of natural gas for oil in power generation reduce demand. - **Outlook**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow crude oil and move sideways. The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3525 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Demand is affected by weak refined oil products, shipping demand decline, and energy substitution. Domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: It will follow crude oil price fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Supply resumes quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. On June 9, PX CFR China Taiwan was 808 (-10) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 6494 (-62) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price fluctuations slow down the cost - side guidance. Asian PX operating rates are expected to increase, and PTA device restarts are stronger than maintenance. Domestic PX is in a de - stocking cycle. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand competition intensifies, and prices will continue to consolidate [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the market situation is deteriorating. On June 9, PTA spot price was 4855 (-42) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 473 (13) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Demand is weak due to limited orders and high inventory in the weaving industry. Polyester production and sales are sluggish, and supply is restarting. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand weakens, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Production cuts support processing fees, and prices follow raw materials. On June 9, polyester short - fiber prices were 6485 (-25) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 868 (-39) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber industry's production cuts reduce supply pressure, and the spot basis strengthens. The decline on Monday was due to macro factors, and the industry pattern is still healthy. - **Outlook**: Processing fee compression space is limited, and macro - level negatives dominate the market [15]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow raw materials, and the self - pattern is weak. On June 9, domestic polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the export quotes were also stable. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are weak. The industry is reducing production due to poor profitability, but inventory is still at a five - year high. - **Outlook**: Processing fees will fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the expansion power is limited [16]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7050 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 118 (-7) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds support the cost side, but terminal demand is weak. Supply is increasing, and high - level maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [25]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream LLDPE spot price was 7120 (-10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 42 (-22) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds, but terminal demand is weak. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and demand is low. Overseas prices are stable, and the exchange rate affects the domestic market. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will move sideways in the short term [24]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Prices increase slightly. On June 9, the East China styrene spot price was 7450 (50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 239 (-53) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Weekend sales of pure benzene in Shandong are good, which improves market sentiment. However, the real - time benefits are few, and supply may increase while demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways with a weak bias in the short term [11]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Prices have a weak rebound in the short term. On June 9, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 36 (-16) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Sino - US talks improve market sentiment. However, in the medium - long term, new production capacity, off - season demand, and weak export expectations still put pressure on the market. - **Outlook**: Prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, and the market will be under pressure in the medium - long term without strong macro - stimulus [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices have peaked, and short - selling is recommended. On June 9, the Shandong 32% caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 442 (+27) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the receiving volume of Weiqiao increases. However, concentrated maintenance in June limits the decline space. - **Outlook**: Spot pressure is not large in June, and the 09 contract is expected to be bearish. Short - selling is recommended, but beware of supply reduction and alumina restocking [27]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang was 2325 yuan/ton, and the 01 port spot basis was 48 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Prices are affected by cost pressure and weak demand. Port inventory is increasing, and coal price rebounds have a small impact. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The futures market is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. On June 6, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1760 (-20) and 1740 (-65) yuan/ton respectively, and the main contract closed at 1697 yuan/ton (-1.34%). - **Main Logic**: Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weak. Exports are expected to be reflected in mid - to - late June. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and spot prices may be under pressure. The futures market is expected to move sideways with a weak bias [21]. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different品种have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 4 (-1), and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 0.94 (-0.01) [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each品种has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the asphalt basis is 222 (+36), and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spread data, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 121 (-17) [31].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Cotton is expected to oscillate. In the short - and medium - term, the futures price will continue to oscillate before the tariff negotiations. In the long - term, the forward trend may diverge, depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs. PTA is likely to face pressure. As macro - level benefits are digested and the supply - demand situation weakens, it may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Ethylene glycol will trade in a range. Although there is support from supply - demand, the upward movement is restricted. Short - fiber has bottom support. Despite possible further decline in processing fees, the supply may decrease, limiting the downside. Sugar is in a weak oscillation. International and domestic factors are mixed, and the price will maintain a weak oscillation. Apples will oscillate. With the impact of seasonal fruits, the price will stay around 7500 [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Brief Views Cotton - Macro factors include concerns about the US Treasury bond maturity in June, domestic macro - level favorable policies, changes in Sino - US relations, the European Central Bank's interest - rate cut, and the net short position of CFTC funds. Fundamentally, the domestic commercial inventory is tight this year, which supports the 09 contract. The probability of a global bumper harvest in the new season is increasing. The consumption side is variable, depending on the US attitude towards tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut time. In the short - and medium - term, the market is waiting for the negotiation results, and the 07 contract's warehouse receipts may shift to the 09 contract. It is expected to oscillate between 13300 - 13625 next week, and attention should be paid to the price decline in July and August and the low point in the 12000 - 12500 range. In the long - term, the forward trend depends on the tariff attitude [1]. PTA - Due to geopolitical tensions and reduced Canadian oil production, international oil prices have risen. The PTA spot price has decreased. The domestic weak macro - level sentiment, weakening industrial supply - demand, and the weakening of the chemical sector have led to the weakening of the absolute price and the loosening of the spot basis. The PTA device's operating rate has increased, while the polyester production and sales rate has slightly decreased. With the digestion of macro - level benefits and the high spot basis, the PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - The international oil price decline has led to a decrease in the cost of ethylene glycol. The domestic production start - up has recovered, and the import arrival is low. Although the demand side has a high operating rate, the downstream polyester's cautious inventory replenishment restricts the upward movement of ethylene glycol [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. The short - fiber market may oscillate at a high level next week. However, due to poor downstream transmission, the processing fees may continue to decline. With some enterprises starting to reduce production, the downside space is limited [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern part of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new season, there is still an expectation of increased production. In addition, the growth prospects of sugar crops in major producing countries such as India have improved, putting pressure on the futures price. Domestically, factors are mixed. The fast sales speed this season, the peak summer consumption season, and the control of syrup and premixed powder imports support the price, but continuous rainfall in Guangxi, the opening of the import profit window, and future import pressure lead to a weak oscillation of the sugar price [5]. Apple - The apple market is stable. The new - season apple bagging work continues in the producing areas. The trading atmosphere of in - warehouse goods is average, and the shipment is slow. The sales in the consumer market are average, affected by seasonal fruits. With the low inventory in the main producing areas and the approach of the seasonal off - season, the price will oscillate around 7500 [5]. 2. Macro Key Information - On June 9 and 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by energy prices. The PPI was still at a low level, but there were positive changes in some areas [8]. 3. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval decreased, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the restart of some devices [11]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China decreased, and the weekly output also decreased, with both integrated and coal - based production showing declines [11]. Short - fiber - By the end of May, the monthly output of domestic polyester short - fiber increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. However, the cost was still stronger than the short - fiber price, and the processing fees continued to decline [11]. Sugar - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports decreased year - on - year. As of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports remained the same as last week, but the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Guangdong's sugar production and sales increased, and the industrial inventory was zero [11][13][14]. Apple - As of June 4, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas decreased, and the shipment speed slowed down compared with last week. The prices in Shaanxi and Shandong producing areas are provided [14]. 4. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, capacity utilization rates, inventory changes, and other data of cotton, PTA, ethylene glycol, sugar, and apples [21][24][27][31][39][41].

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | 107 | 1 2 112 | | | 有限 1-7 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF2509 | 13260 | 3265 | 3362 | 13255 | 13360 | 100 | 0.15% | 222549 | 230850 ...