Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. The supply side features a large number of new flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side enters a relatively off - season after the peak season, and previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. Meanwhile, future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton futures are 13,600, 13,615, and 13,780 respectively, with corresponding increases of 5, 10, and 25. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn futures are 19,920, 0, and 0 respectively, with corresponding increases of 45, - 19,920, and - 20,085. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, and their changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 14,859 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A is 76.45 cents/pound, up 77.40 cents/pound; the price of (FC Index):M: to - port price is 75.60 cents/pound, down 0.80 cents/pound. There are also prices and price changes of other spot products [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is - 15, down 5; between May and September is - 165, down 15; between September and January is 180, up 20. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is 19,920, up 19,965; between May and September is 0, up 165; between September and January is - 19,920, down - 20,130. There are also cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 3, 2025, the price of China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of 2129B was 15,137 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The delivery price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,530 yuan/ton for 3128B, down 10 yuan/ton; 14,820 yuan/ton for 2129B, unchanged from last Friday. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher and then fluctuated downward on Friday, with the basis quote basically stable and the spot transaction price relatively stable [4]. - On November 2, 2025, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. In Aksu, the lint percentage of seed cotton purchased by some ginneries was 0.5% - 1.0% lower than last year, and the purchase price of high - lint - percentage seed cotton remained at about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both the import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91%. From January to September, Japan's cumulative clothing import value was 2,685.447 billion yen (equivalent to 18.103 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, and the cumulative import volume was 713,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [5]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 33,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Among them, bonded cotton was 3.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%; non - bonded cotton was 2,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. In terms of the origin of imported cotton, in the cotton inventory of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, US cotton accounted for 26.64%, a year - on - year decrease of 20.87 percentage points; Brazilian cotton accounted for 23.38%, a year - on - year increase of 4.37 percentage points; Australian cotton accounted for 45.94%, a year - on - year increase of 14.29 percentage points; other countries and regions accounted for 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.21 percentage points. The net inbound volume was - 807.15 tons, with 1,154.15 tons out of storage and 347 tons into storage. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly, and cotton imports continued to recover in September and October, with an increase in US and Brazilian cotton arriving in Hong Kong, but the outbound speed accelerated, leading to a decline in storage capacity [6]. Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with a large number of new flowers on the market in November, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large number of new flowers on the market on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected, and with average recent orders on the demand side but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. In addition, there may be trade negotiations between China and the US, and the Sino - US tariff agreement expires in November, so future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved slightly last week and market confidence recovered to some extent, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly, and there was still significant hedging pressure on cotton. After some quotes of pure cotton yarn were tentatively raised, the market returned to calm, and most actual transaction prices changed little. Due to the lack of order support, only a few varieties had good sales, such as C40, high - count export varieties, and low - count compact - spun yarn. Most air - jet spun and combed yarns had relatively slow sales, and the market mainly consisted of small, urgent, and necessary orders. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton. The current tax - included cash price of high - compact C32S produced in Jiangsu is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton, subject to negotiation for actual orders [10]. - The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, with insufficient trading atmosphere. The quantity and price of pure - cotton cloth in the spot market were weak, so fabric mills mostly purchased raw materials as needed. Downstream customers mainly placed necessary orders. With weak terminal demand, the operation space was reduced, and most customers adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards the fabric mills' dumping information. Even if the price was discounted, they were reluctant to stock up without orders [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 3, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,600, the closing price was 260, and the decline was 10.0%. For CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 25, and the decline was 34.2%. For CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 8, and the decline was 60.0%. There are also data on implied volatility, Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [12]. - **Volatility and Trading Suggestion**: The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7%. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7135, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.7629. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the chart of the internal - external market cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the charts of cotton basis for January, May, and September, the charts of the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, CF9 - 1, and CF5 - 9 [15][19][20].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5526, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -38. The trading volume was 118,520, with a daily change of -33,382, and the open interest was 163,466, with a daily change of -5,461 [3]. - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5794, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -8. The trading volume was 161,410, with a daily change of -56,913, and the open interest was 350,214, with a daily change of -2,225 [3]. - The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30. The spot price of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -30 [3]. - The manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with the Australian lump at 39 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), South African semi - carbonate at 34.2 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), and Gabon lump at 39.8 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.1) [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On November 3, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 0.47%, and the SM main contract rose 0.38% [5]. - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak on the 3rd, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. Supply remained at a high level, and demand had a downward pressure due to potential environmental restrictions. The strategy was to short on rallies [5]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 10 - yuan/ton decline. Supply pressure was high, and demand was affected by low profits and environmental production cuts. The strategy was also to short on rallies [5]. - Unilateral strategy: Short on rallies due to increased steel mill maintenance and high demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Important Information - In September 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 2,287,959 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total exports were 20,763,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25% [7]. - The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in October 2025 was 50, in line with expectations and the previous value [7]. Group 4: Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton [14]. - The production cost of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5809 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 149 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5840 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 250 yuan/ton [17].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The current market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with clear trends across different sectors and distinct product attributes [2] Group 2: Key Bullish and Bearish Products - Bullish products include crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), which show steady increases in positions, reflecting recognition of energy transition and shipping recovery [3] - Bearish products include rubber (RU), which has seen a notable increase in short positions, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [3] Group 3: Position Changes and Capital Movements - In the energy and chemical sector, positions in crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are rising, while rubber (RU) shows significant short position increases, suggesting a bearish outlook [4] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil (P) sees rising positions with active bullish capital involvement, while live hogs (LH) have a large position despite a bearish structure, indicating ongoing divergence [4] Group 4: Core Trading Logic and Opportunity Identification - For stock indices, small-cap stocks are favored, with the market state being "Long" for both the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures, supported by healthy technical indicators [5][6] - Iron ore (I) is marked as "Great-Long-Now," indicating strong bullish signals within the black series [6] - Opportunities include arbitrage strategies between rebar (RB) and hot-rolled coil (HC), or a long position in iron ore [5][6] Group 5: Key Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend strategies favoring IC, IM, I, P, and SC due to strong curve structures and fundamental support [8] - Trend strategies for RU, LH, and M are recommended as bearish due to weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - Arbitrage strategies between palm oil (P) and soybean meal (M) are suggested, capitalizing on the strength of oils over feeds [8] Group 6: Key Products to Monitor - Focus on the performance of small-cap stocks (IC/IM) and the supply dynamics of iron ore (I) [13] - Monitor the crude oil supply-demand balance (SC/LU) and the continuation of the bearish trend in rubber (RU) [13] - Keep an eye on palm oil (P) for ongoing biodiesel demand and the progress of hog destocking (LH) [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. It's recommended to wait and see. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend. It's also recommended to wait and see [7][30] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a "first decline then rise" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking, and the rumor of the Philippine central bank's selling in the early stage, and then stabilized and rebounded supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, technical support, and the continuous gold purchase of the Chinese central bank. In the long - term, the gold - buying trend of global central banks and the risk - aversion demand under the background of de - dollarization are the core drivers, but in the short - term, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path and market sentiment fluctuations need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 960 - 965 and the lower support at 920 - 925. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 904 - 920 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 904 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "decline and then stabilization" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the improvement of London market liquidity, and profit - taking in the early stage, and then gradually recovered supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, continuous reduction of COMEX inventory, and the effectiveness of technical support. The closing price at the end of the week returned to 11,400 yuan/ton (the same as the beginning of the week). In the long - term, the Fed's policy path, the recovery of industrial demand, and the change of global inventory structure need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 11,785 - 12,085 and the lower support at 10,915 - 11,285. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the upper resistance level at 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][49]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range operation, and the trading strategy for both is to go long on dips [12][13][37] 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range operation. As of October 31, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9150 yuan/ton, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consulting variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main short - side camp has a slight advantage. It is expected that the industrial silicon 2601 contract will operate in the range of 7500 - 10000 [8][9] 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to go long on dips during the large - range operation of industrial silicon, and this week's strategy suggestion remains the same [12][13] 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [15][19] Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range operation. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate rose. As of October 31, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81850 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consulting variety diagnosis report shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2601 contract will operate in the range of 68,000 - 100,000 [33][34] 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to go long on dips during the large - range operation of lithium carbonate, and this week's strategy suggestion remains the same [37] 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][40]

Group 1 - The margin in futures trading acts as a deposit, where buying into a position means borrowing a commodity from the exchange, and selling it later involves returning the commodity [1] - Futures trading is conducted in lots, with different commodities having varying lot sizes; for example, one lot of asphalt is 10 tons [1] - The cost calculation for futures involves the current price level, contract multiplier, number of lots, and margin ratio [1] Group 2 - Heavy positions in futures trading are discouraged, as they increase risk; for instance, a one-point movement in one lot of asphalt results in a ten-dollar change [2] - It is recommended that traders do not exceed a 50% position in any commodity, especially for beginners who should start with a 10% position [2] - The risk level in a futures account reflects the position size, with 10% indicating a one-lot position and 20% indicating a two-lot position, and so forth [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, new grain harvest brings supply pressure, focus on North China's weather impact; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season drivers; long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing logic. Consider low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract [5]. - Pig: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair; mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized. Suggest waiting and seeing for near - month contracts and being cautious about far - month contracts [11][12]. - Egg: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported; mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range; long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [17][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Important Information**: On October 31, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2001 yuan/ton, and were stable in North China at 2169 yuan/ton; port prices in Jinzhou rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton, and were stable in Shekou at 2285 yuan/ton; the number of futures warehouse receipts was 63966; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong widened to + 380 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, new grain supply pressure exists, spot is weakly stable, pay attention to North China's weather. Mid - term, trade in a wide range. Long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing and focus on policies [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a mid - long - term range trading strategy. Focus on low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract after callback, with the first support at 2100, the second at 2050 - 2080; the first pressure at 2150, the second at 2160 - 2170. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2120 - 2130 [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On October 31, the national average pig price was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. In September, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%. As of October 30, the average slaughter weight was 124.66 kg, up 0.06 kg from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair. Mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage. Long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - month contracts, wait and see after closing short positions. For far - month contracts, pay attention to sow inventory changes. For the 2601 contract, the pressure at 12500 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2603 contract, the pressure at 11800 - 12000 is verified, and support is at 11000 - 11200; for the 2605 contract, the pressure at 12200 - 12300 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12000 [13]. Egg - **Important Information**: On October 31, the average egg price in the main production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, stable; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. On October 30, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, stable; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days. On October 31, the average price of old hens was 4.18 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. In September, the number of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. The estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% [17]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported. Mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range. Long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. Wait and see. If inventory levels continue to rise, consider shorting the 2512 contract with pressure at 3180 - 3200. Mid - long - term, determine the trading direction based on culling behavior [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Global sugar supply surplus expectations suppress international sugar prices. In the short - term, ICE raw sugar is expected to remain weak. In China, although there are some positive factors, the medium - long - term pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices remains, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Pulp**: The market risk preference is boosted, but the supply of wood pulp remains high, and the demand improvement is limited. The pulp valuation is not high, but the upward drive is weak, and the rise height may be restricted [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The improvement in demand for finished paper is limited, and there is supply pressure. Although there is some cost support, the price is difficult to rise significantly [6]. - **Cotton**: The tariff adjustment in Sino - US trade negotiations supports textile and clothing exports. However, the supply pressure in the northern hemisphere still exists, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [8]. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - **Apple**: The new season's apples have smaller fruit sizes and lower high - quality fruit rates, which support the futures price. However, the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward space. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Jujube**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and new jujubes are on the market. The futures price is expected to be in a shock - falling state [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation Fresh Fruit Futures | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Smaller fruit sizes and lower high - quality fruit rates in the new season, the futures price center moves up | 7900 - 8000 | 9700 - 9800 | | Jujube 2601 | Short at high prices | High futures premium, there is pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge | 10000 - 12000 | 11000 - 11300 | [19] Soft Commodity Futures | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar 2601 | Short on rebound | Short - term rebound under the boost of good news, but new sugar is about to be listed, and the global supply - demand is expected to weaken | 5380 - 5400 | 5530 - 5500 | | Pulp 2601 | Short within the range | The valuation is not high, but there is still supply pressure, and the overall increase in finished paper prices is limited | 4800 - 4900 | 5200 - 5300 | | Double - offset Paper 2601 | Short on rebound | The cost support has increased slightly, but the demand still suppresses the price under high supply elasticity | 4100 - 4200 | 4400 - 4500 | | Cotton 2601 | Reduce short positions | The increase in new cotton production is slightly less than expected, and the Sino - US trade relationship eases | 13200 - 13300 | 13700 - 13800 | [19] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream apple prices in the producing areas remained stable. The trading in Shandong was at its peak, and the acquisition in Shaanxi was in the later stage. The market arrival volume in the sales areas increased, and the sales of high - quality goods were good [20][21]. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9103 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. New jujubes have not been concentratedly harvested, and some merchants have started to purchase [22]. Sugar Market China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes since October 27. The sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The EU has raised the yield forecast of sugar beets [24]. Pulp Market As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. As of October 28, the steam consumption of a thermal power plant in Baoding decreased, and the operating rate of household paper decreased [26]. Double - offset Paper Market As of October 29, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry decreased, and the cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, resulting in a continuous decline in profitability [27]. Cotton Market In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports increased significantly. The tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US has been reduced, and the export competitiveness will be restored [28]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9268 | 70 | 0.76% | | Jujube 2601 | 10225 | - 270 | - 2.57% | | Sugar 2601 | 5472 | - 22 | - 0.40% | | Pulp 2511 | 4846 | 10 | 0.21% | | Cotton 2601 | 13600 | - 20 | - 0.15% | [29] Spot Market | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0 | 0.55 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5750 | 0 | - 790 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5500 | 0 | - 700 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 450 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14843 | 3 | - 593 | [34] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 1 - 5 | - 456 | 172 | 264 | Oscillatory decline | Short at high prices | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 80 | - 75 | - 175 | Range oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 65 | 1 | 53 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 10 | - 5 | 55 | Range fluctuation | Short at high prices | [52] Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 7541 | - 84 | - 2359 | | Pulp | 224942 | - 486 | - 146925 | | Cotton | 2434 | - 26 | - 865 | [80] Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs helps promote the recovery of Sino-US trade, drives the recovery of demand on the US route, and supports the prices of European routes to some extent [3]. - In the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next year's long - term agreement negotiation. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, and so on until delivery [4]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5]. - The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 30, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 64,604.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 24,647.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1583.00, 1175.90, 1403.30, 1487.50, 1132.50, and 1843.80 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 24, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. On October 27, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacities of China - European base ports are 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU, and 321,800 TEU respectively. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU. Among them, 66 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total of 995,500 TEU and 11 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total of 236,320 TEU have been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain No specific summarized information provided. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific summarized information provided.