甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 6 801 2120 2075 2445 2475 2395 2555 245 317 5 25 - 2025/12/1 7 801 2130 2095 2440 2485 2385 2550 249 318 -5 25 - 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 - - - 2485 2385 2500 - - - 20 - 日度变化 0 - - - 0 0 -8 - - - 0 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2162 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | | | | | 格下跌 | 4 | 元至 | 2138 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 25284 | 手至 | 51.9 | 万手，空头持 | 仓减少 | 16783 | 手至 | 63.5 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 90.5%，环比+0.9%。海外甲醇开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bullish; Cost - Neutral; Device change - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bullish; Processing profit - Neutral [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Device change - Cautiously bullish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: December shows balanced de - stocking. Considering some long - stopped devices won't restart, the inventory build - up pressure in January and February is not high. Demand seasonally weakens slightly, and costs have corrected significantly. With an expected good pattern, focus on low - buying opportunities after crude oil stabilizes [5]. - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. Short - term supply and demand change little, and PXN maintains a relatively high valuation. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply side has marginal improvements with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance improves, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Terminal Demand - Weaving orders are weakening. Domestic terminal orders are winding down, and foreign demand samples haven't been ordered in bulk. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 83% (- 2%), 67% (- 2%), and 70% (- 4%) respectively. Finished product inventories are rising slightly, and new order volume is weakening. There may be a pre - holiday stock - up wave before the Spring Festival in 2026, around mid - January [9] - As of December 12, polyester load is around 91.2%, with low cash flow. Polyester average inventory is about 16 days, with low inventory pressure and a slight increase. Polyester开工率 remains high, and the overall cash flow is average. Polyester as a whole has average profitability, with compressed profits for filament POY and FDY, and fair profitability for staple fiber [14][15] - As of December 11, polyester load is 91.2%. Forecasts for November and December are 91% and 91% (+1%). In the future, with low inventory pressure and a relatively late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [41] PTA - PTA device maintenance changes little. Devices are under planned maintenance with a high volume. YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, as well as Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1. The planned maintenance in January 2026 is not high. After Ineos' 1.1 million - ton restart, 1.25 million tons may be under maintenance. Watch for new material plans [47] - As of December 11, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.15 million tons, showing a slight decline. Before the end of the year, PTA inventory pressure is low [48] - PTA's short - term supply is tight, with little change in supply and demand. The overall pattern is expected to be good. Consider low - buying on corrections. The supply side has devices under planned maintenance with little change and high maintenance volume. The demand side has polyester load maintaining at a high of 91.2% as of December 12, but downstream orders are weakening [59] - The net short - position of foreign - controlled futures company seats in PTA changes little [60] PX - US gasoline inventories are rising from the bottom, and gasoline cracking spreads are falling from highs [71] - Asian short - process profitability has slightly improved [73] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread is 189 yuan, and the xylene price spread is $155.9. Xylene tariffs have been waived. Exports of aromatics from South Korea to the US increased slightly in October - November, and there are plans to export pure benzene to North America in December. North American aromatics inventory is expected to increase slightly at the end of the year [81] - PX device operation: Domestic load remains stable at 88.1%, and Asian load is 79.3%. Shanghai Petrochemical has slightly reduced its load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce its load in January. Overseas, GS disproportionation is shut down, Idemitsu's one line has restarted, and Saudi Satorp has restarted [83] - The overall PX pattern is expected to be good, with little short - term change in supply and demand. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The PX supply - demand is in a loose balance, with a relatively high PXN valuation around $280. It will fluctuate in the short term, and low - buying is recommended [88] - The price spread between PX's outer and inner markets has stabilized, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX has remained firm, and the TA05 processing fee is at the bottom [89] - The industrial chain profit has slightly recovered from a low level, with the valuation mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level. PTA processing fees remain low. Currently, the PTA - crude oil price spread has recovered, reflecting some positive expectations. PXN is relatively high overall. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees after the demand off - season correction [98] Ethylene Glycol - As of December 12, the overall ethylene glycol load is 69.93%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance/load reduction has increased [100] - Many ethylene glycol devices have maintenance plans. Domestic maintenance has slightly increased, and the overall load has decreased to 69.9%. The syngas - based load is 72.17%. New device Ningxia Changyi's 200,000 - ton production is ramping up [105][107] - Overseas device maintenance has increased. Shipments to China in November - December are high, estimated at 650,000 tons each month. Shipments may decline in January - February [123] - As of December 17, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports is about 844,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from last week. Forecasts for arrivals in late December are moderately high, and port inventories are expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 13.9 days (+0.1), and downstream inventory has slightly increased [130] - Ethylene glycol's supply side has marginal improvements, with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance has improved, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [135]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, in the long - term, anti - involution will drive price increases, and buying on dips is the best strategy. However, currently, terminal demand is weak, it takes time to implement price hikes across the industry chain. In the short - term, there is a combination of negative factors from increased warehouse receipts and positive factors from anti - involution in the industry chain, leading to large price fluctuations, so risk control is necessary [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, due to some manufacturers' planned joint production cuts to support prices and the strengthening of coking coal prices, the industrial silicon futures may rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, which may lead to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices. It is recommended to take profits on short - term long positions in time and sell short on rallies based on downstream demand changes [6][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In December, silicon wafer production scheduling decreased by 9GW month - on - month to 45GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 90,000 tons. In December, the polysilicon production was 112,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate. The current upstream inventory of polysilicon is about 2.9 million tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 1.5 million tons, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and traders is about 400,000 tons [4]. - **Price and market sentiment**: Last week, some polysilicon enterprises raised the spot price to over 65,000 yuan/ton. At the Xi'an Photovoltaic Conference, all links in the upstream and downstream issued self - discipline initiatives to strictly control the operating rate and prices. The recent large - scale spot price adjustment of polysilicon has not led to short - term transactions. The increase in warehouse receipts of Orient Hope and Jinnuo on Friday last week has put some short - term downward pressure on the market [4]. - **Trading strategy**: - **Unilateral trading**: Long - term bullish, but large short - term fluctuations, need to control risks and participate with caution [5]. - **Arbitrage**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [6]. - **Trading logic**: At the Guangzhou meeting, some manufacturers planned to jointly cut production to support prices. The strengthening of coking coal prices may lead to a short - term rebound in industrial silicon futures, with attention to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, leading to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices [6]. - **Trading strategy**: - **Unilateral trading**: Take profits on short - term long positions and sell short near the pressure level [7]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Arbitrage**: None [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly, with the main contract closing at 8690 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was seasonally adjusted downwards. The weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week [13]. - **Industrial silicon production**: This week, the industrial silicon output decreased. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The total number of open furnaces for industrial silicon this week was 245, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The number of open furnaces increased by 2 in Xinjiang, decreased by 2 in Yunnan, decreased by 4 in Gansu, and decreased by 1 in Sichuan [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream raw material inventory increased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [23][24]. - **Related product prices**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week. The prices of DMC and terminal organic silicon products also remained stable. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rate remained stable. The industrial silicon raw material price remained stable this week [30][34][43][46]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trends**: The prices of polysilicon and its downstream main materials are shown in the table. For example, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and there was no change compared with the beginning of December and the end of November [52]. - **Component fundamentals**: In December, the component order situation was poor, and the manufacturer's production scheduling was significantly adjusted downwards compared with November. It is expected that the domestic photovoltaic component production scheduling in December will be adjusted down to around 42GW. In terms of inventory, the European photovoltaic component inventory increased to 33.1GW, and the domestic photovoltaic manufacturer's component inventory was 31.2GW, at a relatively low - medium level [60]. - **Battery chip fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries was good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers was 9.44GW, with a slight inventory accumulation. In November, the component production scheduling was adjusted downwards, and the battery production scheduling followed suit to 48GW [61]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was adjusted downwards, and the weekly output of silicon wafers decreased to 10.67GW. Currently, the silicon wafer link basically schedules production according to demand, and the silicon wafer inventory is 21.5GW. The silicon wafer production scheduling in December was 45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 9GW [66]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory remained at 291,000 tons. In November, the total production suspension scale of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in Yunnan and Sichuan was 370,000 tons/year. In December, the third - phase project in Inner Mongolia increased the production cut intensity. Some production capacities of GCL Technology and Asia Silicon Industry were cut, while some production capacities of Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy climbed to full production. It is expected that the polysilicon production in December will decrease by 2,000 tons month - on - month to 112,000 tons [71].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Arbitrage trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - **Import Source**: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - **Production Volume**: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - **Import**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - **Export**: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - **End - use Industries**: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that CBOT soft red winter wheat futures experienced a slight increase, supported by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite a weekly decline of 3.7% [1] - On Friday, wheat futures rose by 0.25 to 2 cents, with the March contract up by 2 cents, closing at 509.75 cents per bushel; the May contract increased by 1.75 cents to 520.50 cents per bushel; and the July contract also rose by 2 cents to 531.75 cents per bushel [1] - The most active March contract traded within a range of 505.50 to 511.25 cents [1] Group 2 - The estimated trading volume for the benchmark contract on Friday was 55,489 contracts, down from 78,301 contracts the previous trading day [1] - The open interest was reported at 282,393 contracts, slightly up from 279,680 contracts the previous day [1]

期货合约是由期货交易所统一制定的标准化远期交易协议，明确了在未来特定时间和地点交割一定数量 和质量标的资产的各项条款。作为期货交易的核心载体，理解其基本要素是掌握期货交易规则、识别交 易风险的基础，以下对期货合约的主要要素进行客观说明。 标的资产是期货合约的核心基础，指合约对应的商品或金融工具。商品类标的资产包括农产品、工业金 属、能源产品等，金融类标的资产涵盖股票指数、国债、外汇等。标的资产的类型与质量标准由交易所 明确规定，直接决定合约的交易属性与交割要求，不同标的资产的合约在规则上存在差异。 最小变动价位与合约代码也是重要要素。最小变动价位是价格变动的最小单位，影响交易价格的精度； 合约代码是合约的唯一标识，由标的简称、交割月份等组成，方便市场参与者快速识别特定合约。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是专业的金融信息服务平台，致力于为用户提供全 面、准确的财经资讯与市场信息，覆盖期货、股票、债券等多个金融领域，助力用户深入理解金融市场 规则与产品特性。 免责声明： 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: December 19, 2025 - **Researcher**: Zhang Xiaojun - **Contact**: 0371 - 65617380 - **Qualification**: F0242716 (Futures Practitioner), Z0011864 (Futures Trading Consultant) Report Key Points Corn - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Corn prices face both support and pressure, and are seeking to verify support levels [4] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the northeast and north China rose slightly; north - south port prices were stable with a slight increase; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 627 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed; in November 2025, corn imports reached a yearly high, with cumulative imports from January - November down 86.08% year - on - year, and cumulative imports from October - November up 67.27% year - on - year; the bid - invitation sales of imported corn by CGSCC had a 100% transaction rate [4][5] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, prices oscillate due to seasonal selling pressure and support from farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream inventory building; medium - term, seasonal selling pressure remains before the Spring Festival, and policy grain auctions may provide supply next year; long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution and planting costs, with policy orientation being key [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, suggest waiting or short - term trading. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2200 - 2220; for the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190. Consider low - buying opportunities if support holds [6] Pig - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Winter Solstice stocking, the supply pressure of pigs is emerging [9] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price fell; the number of sows in October 2025 was below 40 million; the number of piglets from January - September increased, with a decrease in October; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the fat - lean price difference was stable; and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the end of Winter Solstice stocking has led to a price decline. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase until March next year, with relief starting from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September next year, and may ease after that if sow inventory continues to decline [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic; the 2603 contract returns to range - trading; far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. If sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities after September next year. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [11] Egg - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The egg market has a weak current situation but strong expectations, with near - month contracts being weak and far - month contracts being strong [16] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg spot prices were stable with a slight increase; inventory increased significantly; the price of old hens decreased; the number of laying hens in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and is expected to decline further in December [16] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are in a low - range, and focus on downstream consumption and inventory. Medium - term, egg supply pressure remains, and the upward momentum of spot prices is limited. Long - term, the increasing scale of egg production may limit price increases, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in near - month contracts after inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on whether low prices can drive culling and capacity reduction. Currently, supply pressure exists before the second quarter next year, and whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on first - quarter culling [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidative manner. On the spot side, prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is being steadily released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a decline in polyolefin valuations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6433, 6476, and 6514 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 6, - 3, and 0, with corresponding price change rates of - 0.09%, - 0.05%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 56414, 420481, and 9818, and the open interests were 105482, 561776, and 13950, with changes of - 13837, 21649, and 1355 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, - 38, and 81, compared to previous values of - 40, - 35, and 75 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6202, 6279, and 6303 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were 6, 25, and 16, with corresponding price change rates of 0.10%, 0.40%, and 0.25%. The trading volumes were 68916, 330436, and 8421, and the open interests were 142634, 523495, and 29696, with changes of - 23432, 4001, and 2464 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 24, and 101, compared to previous values of - 58, - 33, and 91 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2177 yuan/ton, 5955 yuan/ton, 584 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, only the price of methanol futures and Shandong propylene changed, with increases of 18 yuan/ton and a decrease of 60 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6500 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared to the previous values [2]. News - On Thursday (December 18), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.88 - $57.03. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.54 - $60.67 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is continued volatility, with a focus on phased stop - profit for short positions in chemicals. [3] Core Viewpoints - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the US in November showed a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021, easing price pressures. After the CPI release, US stock index futures rose, and Treasury yields and the dollar declined. Near - term factors affecting oil prices include US sanctions on Russia and the impact on Venezuela's oil supply. As most chemical futures shift from the 01 to the 05 contract, expected trading will become the main trend. However, high inventory and potential new inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will increase the volatility of the 05 contract. [1][2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical issues in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations, but there is significant downside pressure in the next quarter. - **Main Logic**: The US may further escalate sanctions on Russia, and the situation in Venezuela is uncertain. Although Venezuela's supply is a concern, the US has no extreme remarks about war on Venezuela for now, and the expected supply is still in an over - supply state in the short - term. [7] Asphalt - **View**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has eased, and asphalt futures prices have fallen back below 3000. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continued to increase production in December. The US's expected war on Venezuela was disproven. Oil prices drove asphalt futures down. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the supply - demand of asphalt is weak with large inventory pressure. Also, the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate widely, and the supply - demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the expected US war on Venezuela was disproven. The three drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak. The demand in the off - season is also low. [8] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. It has a strong product attribute and is affected by the supply - demand situation at home and abroad. [9] PX - **View**: Driven by strong macro and commodity sentiment, prices rise. It is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, with PXN expected to be in the [260, 320] range. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices rebounded from a low level, and PX prices were strong under cost support. With the support of polyester and PTA loads, the price is in an upward - biased pattern. [10] PTA - **View**: Spot circulation is tight, the expected inventory accumulation amplitude is narrowed, and the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price will follow the cost to fluctuate and strengthen, and the processing fee will operate within a range. - **Main Logic**: Upstream PX is strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - side variables are limited, and downstream polyester runs stably. The inventory accumulation amplitude of PTA is expected to converge. [11][12] Pure Benzene - **View**: It fluctuates due to expected differences. - **Main Logic**: It is in a state of weak reality and expected differences. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. [13][15] Styrene - **View**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but the supply - demand is in a tight - balanced state, providing some support. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. [17] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The load has increased again, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The short - term price will fluctuate in a range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large. - **Main Logic**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply - demand has weakened again. Although it is currently in a loose balance, there is a long - term inventory accumulation expectation. [18][19] Short - Fiber - **View**: The upstream cost support has increased, and the price will follow the upstream to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials have strengthened, and the downstream reduction in production is not obvious. The inventory of short - fiber has decreased, and the price has risen with the upstream. [21][22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price, and the absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials. - **Main Logic**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have different trends. Polyester bottle chips are supported by cost and fluctuate with the raw materials. [23] Methanol - **View**: Affected by overseas disturbances and strengthened cost support, it will continue to fluctuate and strengthen. - **Main Logic**: There are differences in the methanol market. The inland market is in a state of shock and consolidation, while the port market is strong due to inventory reduction and slow shipping. [27][28] Urea - **View**: Boosted by market information and strengthened cost support, the futures price rebounds in the short term. It may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but significant upward movement is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has weakened slightly. The inventory shows a de - stocking trend, and the Indian tender and coal price rebound have driven the price up. [28][29] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The cost - side support is limited, and it fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile, and the fundamental support for plastics is limited. The supply reduction expectation is weak, and the demand is entering the off - season. [31][32] PP - **View**: Supported by the expectation of maintenance, it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance for gas - fired refineries. However, the current supply pressure is large. [32][33] PL - **View**: Supported by the strong spot and the expectation of PDH maintenance, it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The spot inventory is controllable, but the downstream buying attitude is cautious. [33] PVC - **View**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. It may fluctuate in the medium term, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. - **Main Logic**: Overseas devices have exited, and export orders are booming. However, the domestic marginal enterprise production reduction is limited, and the downstream demand is weak seasonally. [36] Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it may fluctuate. In the short term, the market sentiment is good and the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the supply - demand is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has a short - term boosting effect. In the short term, the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the high - supply pressure exists. [37][38] Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are presented, with different changes in each variety. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is 50 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PTA is -58 with no change. [40] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties are provided, such as the basis of asphalt is -42, with a change of 60, and the warehouse receipt is 54100. [41] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations are shown, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is -194, with a change of -57, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 1015, with a change of 69. [43] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the given content for this part. [44][56][68] Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 18, 2025 shows that the commodity index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial products index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. [283] - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 18, 2025 is 1080.56, with a daily increase of 0.71%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.54%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.28%, and a year - to - date decrease of 12.00%. [284]