Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, rubber prices will continue to face pressure due to weak macro - sentiment affecting demand expectations and a still - weak fundamental situation. However, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday. Key factors to monitor include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import conditions, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,420 to 14,975 yuan/ton, showing a low - level narrow - range oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of April 25, 2025, it closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 130 points or 0.89% for the week [6][14]. - **Spot Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [19][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber futures contract price slightly expanded. As of April 25, 2025, the basis was - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic natural rubber price rose slightly, while the foreign price fell slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic and Policy News**: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest - rate policy but had no plan to fire Powell. The market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and US stock index futures rose while COMEX gold futures fell. Trump's economic support rate hit a new low, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity with widespread trade policy uncertainty. Trump may exempt some tariffs on the auto and steel industries, and US tariff revenue in April soared by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars [32][33]. - **US Economic Data**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 222,000, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a new high since January 1980 [33]. - **Global Economic Outlook**: The IMF significantly downgraded the global economic growth rate, predicting that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, and also lowered the US economic growth forecast [33]. - **Chinese Economic News**: China's macro - policies are coordinated, and the economy shows a positive trend. The government will implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies. Regarding the US - China trade issue, China is firm in its stance. From January to March, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was flat year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 1.7%. In the first quarter, the total transaction volume of first - and second - hand housing increased by 10% year - on - year, with second - hand housing up 34.7%. From January to April, the average monthly premium rate of land auctions in 22 key cities was around 20% [35]. - **Automobile and Rubber - related Data**: In March, China's automobile production and sales were good, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [8][37][38]. Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production in Main Producing Countries**: As of February 28, 2025, the production in Malaysia increased slightly, Indonesia decreased slightly, Vietnam decreased slightly, India decreased significantly, and Thailand decreased significantly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period. The total production of main natural rubber producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [49][53]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [56]. Demand - side Situation - **Automobile Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of April 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.11%, down 0.33% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.46%, down 2.97% [59]. - **Automobile Production and Sales in China**: As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; monthly sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [63][66][71]. - **Tire Production and Export in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [74][80]. Inventory - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Futures Inventory**: As of April 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,520 tons, down 630 tons from the previous week. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of April 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.369 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 1%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 538,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period, with the bonded area inventory down 1.22% and the general trade inventory down 1.06% [87]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. The supply increase expectation is strong, and the support from the supply side is weakening. In March, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 17% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, the overall shipment of tire enterprises was weak, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The "trade - in" policy is stimulating terminal consumption [88]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, China's social inventory of natural rubber declined slightly but remained at a high level, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly with a slightly faster destocking speed [88]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will remain volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9][90].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising by 4.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite, driven by tech stocks, climbing 6.6% [1] - Major indices have recovered losses incurred since the April 2 tariff announcement, with a busy week ahead for economic data and corporate earnings reports [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Key economic indicators to watch include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and first-quarter inflation data, with particular focus on GDP growth [1][10] - 180 S&P 500 companies are set to release quarterly earnings, with major attention on giants like Apple, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Meta, Microsoft, and Chevron [1] Policy Signals and Market Sentiment - Trump's recent comments alleviated concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and hinted at a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which positively impacted market sentiment [4] - The S&P 500 achieved its first four-day consecutive gain since January, although strategists caution that tariff concerns remain [4] Inflation Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for March, down from 2.8%, with a month-over-month growth expected at 0.1% [7] Labor Market Resilience - Despite signs of economic slowdown, the labor market remains robust, with expectations of 133,000 new non-farm jobs in April and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [10] - The labor market's stability is noted, although employers may be adopting a wait-and-see approach due to recent trade policy changes [10] Technology Sector Performance - Tech stocks have led the recent market rally, with Tesla's stock rising approximately 18% amid positive sentiment regarding CEO Elon Musk's reduced government role and new autonomous driving regulations [14] - The "Big Seven" tech companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, saw stock increases of about 9%, while Google's positive earnings report boosted its stock by 7% [14] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms will be critical in assessing the impact of tariff changes and competition in the AI sector on their growth prospects [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, indicating a strategy of unilateral bullying under the guise of "reciprocity" [1][3] - China has issued a rare public warning against sacrificing its interests for U.S. tariff exemptions, emphasizing its determination to take reciprocal measures if necessary [1][5] - The ongoing trade war has led China to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, while actively seeking alternative supply chains to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [5][8] Group 2 - The strategy of uniting other countries against China is viewed as misguided, as previous attempts to isolate China have not succeeded, and the current geopolitical landscape may not support such a coalition [3][5] - The potential collapse of global trade due to escalating tariffs could have devastating effects on weaker economies, with the U.S. being held responsible for any resulting chaos [5][8] - There is a call for international solidarity to resist U.S. hegemonic behavior, with warnings that countries cooperating with the U.S. may face severe consequences in the future [8]

在美国总统特朗普的视角里，这场由他发起的关税战，正在变成中美两个国家之间的博弈游戏。定义输赢的已经不再是利益上的考量，而是谁先主动低头推 动谈判，谁就是失败者。 特朗普认为，中国更加需要美国，中国会率先低头，因为美国是买方，中国是卖方。美国去年对华出口是1450亿美元，而中国对美国出口是4400亿美元。如 果中国没有庞大的美国市场，那么中国的产品就会卖不出去。由此，特朗普推断除了中国更加需要与美国达成新的贸易协定。 但很显然，特朗普误判了中国在全球贸易中的地位，美国也没有特朗普想象的那么强大。原因也很简单，中国对美出口商品的原因是赚钱，而美国是真真切 切地需要中国的商品。 即便是美国市场对中国关上大门，中国同样可以从其他市场赚钱，美国手中的美元和其他国家手中的美元，并不存在任何差异。但是对美国来说，美国在电 子产品、半导体、稀土资源、关键矿物上，对中国有着极大的依赖性，这种依赖性甚至无法找到替代供应链。 也就是说，中国损失了美国市场，最多是赚不到这个钱了，但美国没有了中国的供应链，那就得重新建立一套供应链体系，最少需要几年到数十年的时间， 甚至都不太可能取得成功。 从这个角度来说，急于达成贸易协定的，其实是美 ...

美国终于扛不住了吗？一连几天，特朗普政府都在对外释想要大幅降低对华关税的信号，为了展现诚意，美国还专门推出了两种"降税"方案。 特朗普 据相关美媒曝料，第一种方案是"统一降税"，美国可能把对华关税降低至50%-65%，另一种则是所谓的"分级方案"。 图片来源于网络 至于特朗普政府所谓的"分级方案"，就是把那些对美国不构成威胁的中国商品的关税降低至35%，至于那些对美国具有战略意义的中国商品，则是至少要征 收100%的关税。 图片来源于央视网 如果特朗普真的把部分对华关税，下调至最低35%的水平，那么中国会不会也跟随美国的脚步，相应的下调对美关税呢？ 外交部发言人郭嘉昆 其实对于这个问题，我国外交部早已在回应中给出了明确的答案。 那么，面对主动释放下调对华关税的美国，中国外交部究竟作出了何种回应呢？ 图片来源于央视网 4月23日，《华尔街日报》一则重磅消息震动国际舆论场：特朗普政府正酝酿两种对华关税调整方案，第一种是"统一降税"，计划将当前对华平均145%的关 税税率降至50%-65%。 特朗普 第二种则是更具争议的"分级方案"，特朗普政府的这一反常举动，被市场普遍解读为"中美贸易战降温"的信号。 莱维特 然而 ...

文/国枫律师事务所 范昊宇、陈明琛 中美贸易冲突以来，全球资本市场震荡，股民避险情绪高涨，A股、港股、美股大盘指数都出现不同程度下滑，此后，中美关税战持续升级，截至4月16日美国对 华最后一次加征关税，部分商品税率已达245%。本文试从法律视角剖析这场冲突对中国企业在A股上市产生的不利影响，以期帮助企业理解合规风险、资本市场 演变趋势以及采取相应应对措施。 近日，中美贸易战成为热门话题，4月2日，美国率先宣布对中国征收34%"对等关税"，中国则依据《关税法》《出口管制法》等法律实施对等反制，对美进口商品 加征34%关税，并限制稀土出口，全球资本市场震荡，股民避险情绪高涨，A股、港股、美股大盘指数都出现不同程度下滑。本文试从法律视角剖析这场冲突对中 国企业在A股上市产生的不利影响，以期帮助企业理解合规风险、资本市场演变趋势以及采取相应应对措施。 二、中美贸易冲突的工具与现状 （一）中美贸易冲突的核心工具 中美贸易冲突可溯源自2018年美国对华发起"301调查"，双方通过关税壁垒、实体清单、技术封锁等手段展开博弈。 美国主要采取的手段有： （1）301调查与关税壁垒，是指美国依据《1974年贸易法》第301条对中 ...

中国的港湾（Reuters） 含有稀土的土被运到 金融市场意识如果中国卖出美国国债是特朗普的弱点。而在安全相关人士之间，稀土资源的 动向作为预测"持续战斗力"的因素而备受关注。中国的稀土管制最迟半年左右就会对美国的武 器制造产生全面影响…… 在中美贸易战中，稀土正成为特朗普政府的弱点。中国政府出口管制的品类对于美军的最 新战斗机与核潜艇的制造至关重要。有观点认为如果禁运持续数个月，将影响到美国的武器 制造，贸易战的持续将变得困难。 F35和最先进核潜艇的制造离不开稀土 中国从4月4日启动的出口管制以稀土中稀有价值尤其高的中重稀土类为对象。包括钐、 钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7种。 这些稀土对中国的依赖程度极高，全球近99%被认为由中国加工。在被列入出口管制清单 的约15家美国企业中，除一家之外，均为国防相关企业。显然，中国寻求对美国国防产业造 成打击。 美国战略与国际研究中心的格拉塞林·巴斯卡兰指出，目前中美两国的武器生产速度仍存 在差距。据悉，中国正在迅速扩充生产体系，以比美国快5～6倍的速度制造和采购先进的武 器系统及相关装备。 从稀土等成为武器生产基础的供应链来看，美国比中国脆弱。美国国防部在2024年的 ...

中国表示"这些都是假消息。据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不 上达成协议"。特朗普则说："我们今天早上刚与他们会谈。那些说是假新闻的报道是错误 的"…… 中美因"特朗普关税"而爆发的对峙仍在持续。受到市场压力的特朗普政府，为了缓解紧张 局势，不断施压中国要求展开谈判，但中国方面态度强硬，表示如果美方不取消加征的关 税，就无法展开对话。 特朗普的言论发生变化 特朗普以及美国政府高层在过去几天里对中国频频释放和解信号。特朗普表示对中国加征 的最高145%的关税"太高了"，并暗示如果中方做出回应，有可能大幅下调。此外，他还表示 与中国达成"公平交易"在未来两到三周内有望取得进展，暗示谈判正在推进。 但另一方面，中国对这种姿态却表现得冷淡。 "这些都是假消息。据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达 成协议"，中国外交部副发言人郭嘉昆在24日傍晚的记者会上被问及中美是否已开始为缓解紧 张而协商时，强烈否认。 郭嘉昆在记者会上说："这场关税战是美方发起的，中方的态度是一贯的也是明确的： 打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开"。还称"如果美方真的想通过对话谈判来解决问题，就应该放弃 极限施 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,179 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,216 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After Trump's attitude softened, concerns about plant shutdowns due to high ethane import tariffs eased on Thursday, leading to a decline in EG prices [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $3/ton from the previous period. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -227 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 77.5 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 68.8 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week. The planned arrivals at major ports this week were 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side. The inventory has rebounded compared to Monday. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high. Attention should be paid to the impact of de - stocking on port inventory [1]. - On the supply side, with the centralized maintenance of coal - based plants, the domestic supply of EG has declined. The Sino - US trade war also affects the supply of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the polyester load has remained stable at a high level in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold. The overall EG inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years. There is some de - stocking support in April, but the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still high, limiting the actual de - stocking amplitude of port inventory [1][2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge MEG. Given the US tariff increase and OPEC+ production increase, the medium - term outlook for crude oil prices is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations. The fundamentals of MEG itself are acceptable, but the textile and clothing demand outlook remains weak due to the suspension of direct exports to the US [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price of EG in the East China market, and the spot basis of EG in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as their changes from the previous period [1]. International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol is presented [17]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales and production of long - filament and short - fiber, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun long - filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip is provided [18][20][24]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China, including overall inventory and inventory at specific ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at major ports in East China are given [1][28][31][33][36].

2025年04月25日 星期五 基本面：供应端，废电瓶价格居高不下，挤压再生铅冶炼利润，冶炼企业生产积极性下降，消费端，铅蓄电 池市场淡季态势加剧，部分下游有意减产或放假，铅锭供需预期呈双降态势。近日铅价探低后回升，部分下 游企业陆续转移社会仓库的铅库存（为前期逢低采购的货源），显性库存减量或提振铅价运行重心略有上移。 交易策略：关税问题的不确定性尚存，铅供需双降，短期预计维持低位盘整。 风险提示：再生废料供应大幅恢复。 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美联储官员讲话提振降息预期，投资者押注降息可以比之前预 | | | | 料的更早到来，美股和美债价格齐涨，美元回落，金属价格得到支撑。供应端，安塔米纳铜矿恢复生产。需 | | | 铜 | 求端，华东华南平水铜现货升水 160 元和 200 元，国内库存持续去化，国内 back 结构走强。国内近端偏紧 | | | | 格局延续。交易策略：后续关注四月数据是否体现贸易战对经济影响以及国内两会政策。建议暂时观望。风 | | | | 险提示：全球需求不 ...