美国财政部长贝森特参加ABC节目ABC 此前，特朗普执意挑起对华关税战，在中方接连反制后，他近期又不断"眨眼"，单方面炒作所谓"谈判"的 话题，为中美贸易谈判虚空造势。究其根本，不过是企图借此掩盖自身愈发被动的不利局面。 上周，接连两天，中方已辟谣指出，所谓"磋商谈判"是假消息。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆4月24日曾表示，这些都是假消息。据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行 磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。4月25日，郭嘉昆再度回应称："昨天我和商务部的同事已经明确回答了 这个问题。中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，美方不要混淆视听。" 而当被ABC问及中方否认美方所谓的"谈判"时，贝森特则这样找补声称："我认为，他们（的表态）是面 向不同受众所采取的策略。" 就在贝森特给特朗普"拆台"的同一天，美国农业部部长布鲁克·罗林斯（Brooke Rollins）却又在美国有线电 视新闻网（CNN）的《国情咨文》（State of the Union）节目中受访宣称："我们每天都在与中国，以及其 他99个甚至100个参与谈判的国家进行对话。"不过，她并没有详细说明情况。 观察者网消息，美方先是挑起关税战砸中自己的 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the potential reduction of tariffs on China by the Trump administration, which may exceed 50%, contingent on China's response to U.S. tariffs [1] - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is emphasized, with a call for dialogue based on equality and mutual respect [1] - Analysts suggest that any tariff reduction would be largely symbolic and unlikely to change the fundamental trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [3] Group 2 - Trump's consideration to lower tariffs is seen as a strategy to boost the U.S. stock market and appease key supporters in agriculture and automotive sectors [3] - The U.S. government faces significant pressure, with rising consumer prices and potential supply chain issues highlighted by retail giants like Walmart [3] - Trump's need to maintain a favorable public image and demonstrate success in negotiations is noted as a driving factor behind the tariff discussions [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has acknowledged the unsustainability of the trade war, indicating a need for both nations to find ways to ease tensions [5] - A comprehensive restructuring plan for the U.S. State Department is underway, aiming to implement Trump's "America First" policy, which includes a 15% reduction in staff and the elimination of 132 offices [5][7] - The restructuring has received mixed reactions domestically, with Republican support and Democratic criticism regarding its potential impact on U.S. global influence [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching May Day holiday, market risk - aversion sentiment is rising. Trump's tariff policy is at a dead - end, and the expectations of domestic and overseas interest rate cuts have been dashed. It is recommended to take profits on short - term copper long positions [6]. - In the short term, gradually take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, as Sino - US competition enters a new stage and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, there is confidence in the long - term upward trend of copper prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Economy - **US Economic Data and Policy Expectations**: In April, the US PMI reached a 16 - month low (composite PMI 51.2), and the consumer confidence index plunged to 50.8. Due to Trump's compromise and the dovish stance of Fed officials, the probability of a June interest rate cut increased from 60% to 65% [11]. - **Trump's Tariff Policy Changes**: Trump first publicly stated his friendliness towards China, admitted that the 145% tariff was too high, and announced a tax cut decision. The Trump administration plans to significantly reduce the current 145% tariff on Chinese goods to the 50% - 65% range, with direct tax cuts and tiered tariff options. The tiered tariff plan has a 5 - year transition period [12]. - **China's Response to US Tariffs**: China denied negotiations on tariffs, imposed a 125% retaliatory tariff on the US, covered multiple fields, initiated an industrial competitiveness investigation, and sued the US at the WTO. China has also adjusted imports in various industries in response to tariff impacts [13][14]. - **Domestic Economic Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized stability. The LPR rate has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates after the Fed's possible June rate cut [6][22]. 3.2盘面情况 - **Price Movements**: This week, the overall center of copper prices moved up. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% compared to last Friday. The price difference between COMEX and LME copper widened to $1303/ton [26]. - **Market Structure**: As of April 25, the spot - to - futures spread of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper was 760 yuan/ton. Shanghai copper maintained a Back structure, while overseas COMEX copper maintained a contango structure. The latest LME copper spot premium was $6.43/ton, and the far - month premium was $27/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper premiums also showed certain levels [29][33]. - **Investment and Trading Data**: The net long positions of LME copper investment funds increased by 5.21% month - on - month, while the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX copper decreased by 19.65% month - on - month. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper expanded to 110,000 lots, and the open interest decreased to 165,900 lots [37][41]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Global copper concentrate production is expected to reach 23.35 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.08%. China's copper concentrate self - sufficiency rate is about 21.31%. Recently, copper concentrate supply disturbances have increased, and port inventories have decreased. The processing fees for copper concentrates have reached new lows [47][50][53]. - **Refined Copper**: Global refined copper production is expected to reach 27.47 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.47%. In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.04% and a year - on - year increase of 12.27%. Some overseas smelters have shut down [64][67]. - **Scrap Copper**: The price difference between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the substitution effect of scrap copper is emerging. However, due to the impact of Sino - US tariffs, the supply of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the overall market supply is tight [70]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: From January to March, grid project investment reached 95.6 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in the first three months reached 59.71GW, with a year - on - year increase of 30.05% [80]. - **Automobile Sector**: Driven by policies, the demand for automobiles has been further released. In the week of April 20, the retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars was 113,962, with a year - on - year increase of 25.84% [77]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: Stimulated by the "Golden March and Silver April" and the trade - in policy, the demand for home appliances has exceeded expectations. The scheduled production of air conditioners from April to June has a year - on - year growth rate of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% respectively [83]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Macro Environment**: Trump released signals of tariff easing, and Fed officials took a dovish stance, increasing the probability of a June interest rate cut. The LPR rate in China has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the market risk - aversion sentiment will rise during the upcoming May Day holiday [96]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances continue, and copper concentrate processing fees reach new lows. Demand shows resilience, but due to copper price fluctuations and US tariff policies, enterprise order expectations are cautious. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have been decreasing for 8 consecutive weeks [96]. - **Suggestions**: In the short term, take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices [96].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump is causing significant economic pressure on American companies, particularly Boeing, which has already faced the return of a Boeing 737 Max aircraft by a Chinese airline, indicating potential further losses in the Chinese market [1][3] - The market price of a new Boeing 737 Max is approximately $55 million, and the more aircraft returned, the greater the economic strain on Boeing, which is already struggling due to previous safety incidents and strikes [1][3] - Boeing is not only a commercial aircraft manufacturer but also a key player in the U.S. military-industrial complex, with its involvement in the design and production of the so-called "sixth-generation fighter" announced by Trump [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant declines, attributed to Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has raised concerns about the future direction of the Fed [3][5] - Trump's unconventional approach, including the potential replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, is seen as a drastic measure that could further destabilize the economy amid the ongoing trade conflict with China [5][7] - Powell has publicly stated his commitment to not resign and his reluctance to lower interest rates, indicating a potential clash between the Federal Reserve's independence and Trump's economic strategies [7]

宏观周报 4 月政治局会议：高质量自强应对冲击 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国最新经济数据依旧呈现出"硬数据"尚可、 "软数据"恶化的特征，4月制造业PMI超预期、服务业 景气降温，企业及居民对关税影响的担忧仍在发酵；密歇 根大学消费者信心指数、通胀预期仍在朝着"滞胀"的方 向演绎。特朗普关税谈判近期未见显著进展，中美贸易战 缓和预期发酵，国际金价创3500美元新高后回落，美元指 数站稳99关口，美股、铜、油均不同程度的修复，10Y美 债利率回落至4.23%。关注本周美国一季度GDP、3月ISM PMI、3月PCE数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 4 月 28 日 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 国内方面，3月工业企业利润小幅修复，上游原材料、中 游装备制造转好，企业 "量升价跌"迹象仍有待扭转。4 月政治局会议召开，明确传递出两大信号：① ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, rubber prices will continue to face pressure due to weak macro - sentiment affecting demand expectations and a still - weak fundamental situation. However, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday. Key factors to monitor include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import conditions, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,420 to 14,975 yuan/ton, showing a low - level narrow - range oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of April 25, 2025, it closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 130 points or 0.89% for the week [6][14]. - **Spot Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [19][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber futures contract price slightly expanded. As of April 25, 2025, the basis was - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic natural rubber price rose slightly, while the foreign price fell slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic and Policy News**: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest - rate policy but had no plan to fire Powell. The market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and US stock index futures rose while COMEX gold futures fell. Trump's economic support rate hit a new low, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity with widespread trade policy uncertainty. Trump may exempt some tariffs on the auto and steel industries, and US tariff revenue in April soared by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars [32][33]. - **US Economic Data**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 222,000, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a new high since January 1980 [33]. - **Global Economic Outlook**: The IMF significantly downgraded the global economic growth rate, predicting that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, and also lowered the US economic growth forecast [33]. - **Chinese Economic News**: China's macro - policies are coordinated, and the economy shows a positive trend. The government will implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies. Regarding the US - China trade issue, China is firm in its stance. From January to March, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was flat year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 1.7%. In the first quarter, the total transaction volume of first - and second - hand housing increased by 10% year - on - year, with second - hand housing up 34.7%. From January to April, the average monthly premium rate of land auctions in 22 key cities was around 20% [35]. - **Automobile and Rubber - related Data**: In March, China's automobile production and sales were good, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [8][37][38]. Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production in Main Producing Countries**: As of February 28, 2025, the production in Malaysia increased slightly, Indonesia decreased slightly, Vietnam decreased slightly, India decreased significantly, and Thailand decreased significantly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period. The total production of main natural rubber producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [49][53]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [56]. Demand - side Situation - **Automobile Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of April 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.11%, down 0.33% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.46%, down 2.97% [59]. - **Automobile Production and Sales in China**: As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; monthly sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [63][66][71]. - **Tire Production and Export in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [74][80]. Inventory - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Futures Inventory**: As of April 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,520 tons, down 630 tons from the previous week. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of April 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.369 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 1%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 538,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period, with the bonded area inventory down 1.22% and the general trade inventory down 1.06% [87]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. The supply increase expectation is strong, and the support from the supply side is weakening. In March, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 17% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, the overall shipment of tire enterprises was weak, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The "trade - in" policy is stimulating terminal consumption [88]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, China's social inventory of natural rubber declined slightly but remained at a high level, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly with a slightly faster destocking speed [88]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will remain volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9][90].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising by 4.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite, driven by tech stocks, climbing 6.6% [1] - Major indices have recovered losses incurred since the April 2 tariff announcement, with a busy week ahead for economic data and corporate earnings reports [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Key economic indicators to watch include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and first-quarter inflation data, with particular focus on GDP growth [1][10] - 180 S&P 500 companies are set to release quarterly earnings, with major attention on giants like Apple, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Meta, Microsoft, and Chevron [1] Policy Signals and Market Sentiment - Trump's recent comments alleviated concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and hinted at a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which positively impacted market sentiment [4] - The S&P 500 achieved its first four-day consecutive gain since January, although strategists caution that tariff concerns remain [4] Inflation Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for March, down from 2.8%, with a month-over-month growth expected at 0.1% [7] Labor Market Resilience - Despite signs of economic slowdown, the labor market remains robust, with expectations of 133,000 new non-farm jobs in April and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [10] - The labor market's stability is noted, although employers may be adopting a wait-and-see approach due to recent trade policy changes [10] Technology Sector Performance - Tech stocks have led the recent market rally, with Tesla's stock rising approximately 18% amid positive sentiment regarding CEO Elon Musk's reduced government role and new autonomous driving regulations [14] - The "Big Seven" tech companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, saw stock increases of about 9%, while Google's positive earnings report boosted its stock by 7% [14] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms will be critical in assessing the impact of tariff changes and competition in the AI sector on their growth prospects [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, indicating a strategy of unilateral bullying under the guise of "reciprocity" [1][3] - China has issued a rare public warning against sacrificing its interests for U.S. tariff exemptions, emphasizing its determination to take reciprocal measures if necessary [1][5] - The ongoing trade war has led China to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, while actively seeking alternative supply chains to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [5][8] Group 2 - The strategy of uniting other countries against China is viewed as misguided, as previous attempts to isolate China have not succeeded, and the current geopolitical landscape may not support such a coalition [3][5] - The potential collapse of global trade due to escalating tariffs could have devastating effects on weaker economies, with the U.S. being held responsible for any resulting chaos [5][8] - There is a call for international solidarity to resist U.S. hegemonic behavior, with warnings that countries cooperating with the U.S. may face severe consequences in the future [8]