Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The glass market is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term due to macro - level negatives and a weak fundamental situation. The supply has decreased to a relatively low level for the same period, with increased supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade friction may intensify. "Anti - involution" and environmental protection policies in the Shahe area have boosted sentiment, but there are many supply - side disturbances. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1148 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1207 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 59 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to macro - level negatives and a weak glass fundamental situation, it is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [2]. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw sheets [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, with more supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak, so it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [6]. Glass Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1218 | 1207 | - 0.90% | | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | 1156 | 1148 | - 0.69% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 62 | - 54 | - 4.84% | [7] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Cost - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Profit**: No specific profit data provided, only the data sources (Longzhong and Steel Union) are mentioned [15][20]. Supply - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Lines and Output**: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 161,300 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level for the same period in history and is stabilizing and rebounding [23][25]. Demand - Side of Fundamentals - **Float Glass Monthly Consumption**: In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - **Housing Sales, New Construction, Construction, and Completion Area**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Wind) is mentioned [36][38]. - **Downstream Processor's Operation and Order Situation**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Longzhong) is mentioned [42]. Inventory of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [45]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Fundamentals | Year | Production | Calculation | Other | Japan | Apparent Supply | Consumption | Maintenance | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5098 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | 65 | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [46]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the stock markets, particularly focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, as well as the broader implications for the technology and resource sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Trade Tensions** The U.S. threat to increase tariffs has led to significant market pullbacks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with A50 futures and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing declines of approximately 4-5% [3][4][6] 2. **Investor Sentiment Improvement** Compared to April, the current market sentiment regarding U.S.-China relations has improved, with investors showing increased confidence in the ongoing negotiations and the resilience of Chinese exports [4][5][6] 3. **Key Upcoming Dates** Important upcoming events include a U.S.-China meeting in the next two weeks and a tariff expiration date in early November, which could influence market dynamics [6][7] 4. **Market Position and Valuation** Current market positions and valuations are higher than in April, but the impact of recent events is expected to be less severe due to the strengthening of the Chinese economy and increased capital support [7][8] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A contrarian investment strategy is advised, focusing on increasing allocations in the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI computing power and energy storage, as well as precious metals like gold and resource metals such as copper and aluminum [8][9] 6. **Short-term and Long-term Focus** In the short term, sectors like telecommunications, coal, oil, and agriculture are recommended for risk mitigation, while long-term excess returns may be challenging. Attention should also be given to sectors with recovering demand, such as certain chemicals, lithium batteries, and base metals [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Trade Friction as a Short-term Disturbance** The current trade friction is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, suggesting that the underlying industrial trends and economic recovery should be trusted [2][9] 2. **Potential for Market Recovery** There is an expectation that Trump's negotiation tactics may lead to a retreat from aggressive tariff increases, providing opportunities for market recovery [6][7] 3. **Confidence in Chinese Export Resilience** The resilience of Chinese exports across technology, consumption, and manufacturing sectors has been validated, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [5][6]

关税政策变化显著影响资产价格，中国出口至美国综合税率约为 30%， 虽有关税壁垒，但中美经济互补性强，预计高额关税不会完全落实，双 方将寻求新的利益平衡点。 四季度债市环境预计优于三季度，短期内贸易战担忧或支撑债市偏强走 势，10 年期国债收益率或修复至 1.7%左右，突破后有望下探至 1.65%，但央行干预或限制进一步下行。 过去三个季度债市对基本面反应不敏感，实则反映经济边际变化不大， 绝对位置较低，需深入理解经济指标与市场行为的复杂关系，不能仅依 赖表面数据。 当前中国 5%的经济增速处于历史较低水平，债市已对此做出反应，10 年期国债收益率低于 2%，未来债市进一步下行需基本面持续走弱。 四季度货币政策预计维持稳健，降息降准概率较低，但国债买卖落地将 利好债市，若贸易摩擦加剧或股市不佳，央行可能采取宽松政策救市。 政策性金融工具由中央层面主导，倾向于支持民营企业项目，但配套资 金不足限制了社融扩张，对整体经济刺激作用有限。 固收 交易贸易摩擦，债市三步走 20251011 摘要 四季度整体经济环境预计好于三季度，贸易摩擦、财政与货币政策共同 作用下，看好债市修复机会，活跃券收益率或达 1.7%，股票市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in cross-border fire, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [3] - The Pakistani military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [3] - Afghanistan's government stated that they would respond to any territorial violations and emphasized a preference for dialogue [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [6] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in October [7] - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and may undergo adjustments due to recent U.S. news impacts [9][10] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may face a significant adjustment due to high valuations and recent market dynamics [10][11] - The market style may shift towards a more balanced approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on both technology stocks and high-dividend assets [11][12] - There is potential for further inflow of retail investor funds into the A-share market, indicating that the current market conditions may not signal the end of a bull market [12][13]

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Clashes occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their border, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [2] - Pakistan's military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [2] - Pakistan's government condemned Afghanistan's actions and emphasized that it would not compromise on national sovereignty [2] Group 3 - Afghanistan's government reported casualties of 58 on the Pakistani side and 9 on their own during the border clashes, asserting their right to respond to territorial violations [3] - The Afghan government expressed a preference for dialogue to resolve issues, despite the ongoing conflict [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [4] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a high likelihood of further cuts in December [4] Group 5 - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and signs of overvaluation, with potential adjustments expected due to recent U.S. news impacts [5] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market's response to external shocks may be less severe than in April, but adjustments are still anticipated [5][6] - The market's trading sentiment has become more volatile, reflecting increased external uncertainties and domestic policy responses [6][7] Group 6 - Analysts predict that the A-share market may exhibit a fluctuating trend as investors seek balance amid changing external conditions [7] - The market style may shift towards a more defensive approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-dividend assets like banks [7][8] - There is significant potential for retail investors to continue entering the market, indicating that it is not yet time to consider the end of the bull market [8]

中国银河证券指出，中美贸易摩擦再度引发市场关注。市场大概率不会复制4月7日行情。短期来看，外 部环境不确定上升压制市场风险偏好，叠加部分资金获利回吐压力，将加剧市场波动，个股分歧或加 大。但是驱动本轮行情的核心因素并未改变。流动性预计延续向好趋势。在"十五五"规划关键窗口期和 三季报披露窗口期，重点关注新一轮政策聚焦领域和业绩确定性较强板块。配置机会方面，关税冲击 下，关注有色金属（贵金属、工业金属、小金属）、农业、能源行业的投资机会。（1）反内卷："十五 五"时期，反内卷政策将保持延续性，并在现有基础上进一步深化。（2）新质生产力主题：顺应国家战 略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是A股投资的重要主线。短期关注低位补涨板块，中长期关注产业 趋势突破。（3）大消费板块：扩内需政策进一步落地，有望带动行情向上。供需两端协同发力下，新 消费浪潮正蓬勃兴起。（4）"两重"领域：多地重大工程项目建设加快推进，将推动产业链的完善和发 展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the implications of new tariffs and export controls, and the potential market reactions and strategies for investors [2][4][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, alongside new export controls on key software products, leading to significant market volatility [2][4]. - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.6%, and the VIX index surged to 22, marking the largest fluctuations since the "reciprocal tariffs" in April [2][10]. Tariff and Export Control Measures - The US has implemented additional port fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, starting October 14, with fees increasing over the next three years [3][4]. - China responded by imposing special port fees on US vessels, starting at 400 RMB (approximately 56 USD) per net ton, also set to increase over three years [3][4]. - China has tightened export controls on rare earth materials, which account for 61% of global mining share, affecting key industries and supply chains [4][20]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - The article outlines three phases of the current US-China tariff conflict: continuous escalation from January to April, a period of easing from May to September, and a recent re-escalation in October [7][8]. - The current market environment differs from April, with investors having more preparedness and a better understanding of potential outcomes, leading to less severe market reactions compared to previous tariff announcements [10][13]. Future Outlook - The potential for negotiation remains, as both sides have more leverage and preparation compared to earlier phases of the trade conflict. The upcoming APEC meeting may serve as a critical juncture for discussions [20][24]. - The article suggests that the high tariffs could lead to increased inflation in the US and further economic pressure in China, making a compromise more likely to avoid severe economic consequences [20][24]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, considering the potential for short-term volatility due to the tariff developments. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation leading up to the APEC meeting [25][26]. - The current market conditions, including high valuations and accumulated gains, may prompt some investors to take profits, leading to short-term fluctuations [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly regarding tariffs and export controls, has led to significant market volatility, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing sharp declines. The situation is exacerbated by President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting next month, following China's new export controls on rare earth metals [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Global stock markets have seen a sharp downturn, with the KWEB index for Chinese stocks rising nearly 50% earlier this year, while the S&P 500 index reached over 6700 points, with expectations of surpassing 7000 [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points, and Alibaba's stock dropped nearly 30% since early October. The S&P 500 experienced its most severe single-day sell-off since April, declining by 2.4% [5][6]. - Hedge funds recorded their first net sell-off of U.S. stocks in seven weeks, primarily due to macroeconomic short selling, while Long Only funds net bought approximately $2.5 billion [5]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is leveraging its position by imposing tariffs and export controls, while China is using its dominance in the rare earth market as a strategic tool. China controls approximately 88% of global rare earth oxide production and 91% of rare earth metal production [8][9][10]. - China's recent export control measures on rare earths are aimed at enhancing its strategic leverage in trade negotiations, particularly in high-tech sectors like electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing [10][12][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit and potential interactions between U.S. and Chinese leaders may influence market sentiment and trading strategies, with the possibility of a "TACO" (Trump Always Comes Out) trading pattern emerging if market reactions are significant [3][25]. - The Chinese stock market retains bullish characteristics due to low interest rates, low valuations, and policy support, with significant inflows from insurance funds exceeding 600 billion yuan this year [26][27]. - For the Hong Kong market, the fourth quarter will be crucial for determining upward momentum, influenced by U.S.-China negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and upcoming political meetings in China [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences in the market, tariff, foreign trade, macroeconomic, and exchange rate environments between the current situation and that of April, highlighting the implications for investors amid escalating US-China trade tensions [2][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Differences in US-China Equity Market Environment - The volatility and subsequent trends in the US and Chinese stock markets show significant differences, with A-shares experiencing more pronounced rebounds after declines compared to the US market, which tends to exhibit panic selling [3][9]. - As of now, the valuation of major indices is higher than in April, with the dynamic P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 Index at 14.1, 11.7, and 22.2 respectively, compared to 12.2, 10.2, and 20.5 in April [10][14]. - In the A-share market, 28 out of 31 sectors have a higher dynamic P/E than in early April, indicating a general increase in valuations [14]. Group 2: Differences in Tariff Environment - The current escalation of tariffs has exceeded market expectations, but the market's psychological resilience has improved compared to April, where there was significant uncertainty about future tariff directions [4][22]. - In April, the probability of a reduction in tariffs was perceived to be below 15%, while now there is a greater belief in the likelihood of a TACO deal [22]. Group 3: Differences in Foreign Trade Environment - The foreign trade environment for China is currently better than in April, aided by a global interest rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted industrial production expectations [5][24]. - The global manufacturing PMI has shown signs of recovery, indicating a more favorable trade environment for China compared to April [24]. Group 4: Differences in Macroeconomic Environment - Both the US and China are experiencing short-term economic pressures, but the mid-term outlook is more positive than in April, with signs of recovery in private sector economic cycles in China [6][27][28]. - In the US, the gradual implementation of trade agreements and tax cuts has reduced policy uncertainty, improving business and consumer confidence [6][33]. Group 5: Differences in Exchange Rate Environment - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable amid ongoing economic recovery, with increased flexibility in the exchange rate being beneficial for macroeconomic management [7][38]. - For the USD, the risk of further depreciation appears limited, as overseas investment institutions have increased their hedging against USD assets [7][38].