分析师：关税辩论对美元造成了严重影响 金十数据6月12日讯，VP Bank首席投资官菲利克斯•布里尔表示，关税辩论对美元造成了严重影响。投 资者转而青睐欧洲投资，这对欧元有利。在美元大幅下挫之后，技术分析显示美元将出现盘整。鉴于美 国的高额贸易逆差，贸易加权美元被严重高估，并容易进一步贬值。这一赤字与创纪录的外债水平密切 相关。外债越高，就越难以获得额外的资金。"纠正这种不平衡需要更具吸引力的美国资产价格，这主 要是通过美元贬值来实现的，"布里尔说。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the implications of the depreciation of the US dollar and its impact on global capital flows and economic dynamics, particularly focusing on the US economy and its relationship with non-US economies [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dollar Depreciation Certainty**: The trend of dollar depreciation is established due to the changing global capital flow patterns and the decoupling of the US economy from the global economy. This situation is exacerbated by the US's increasing debt levels and the inability to attract capital as before [1][2][3]. 2. **US Fiscal Policy**: The US government has expanded fiscal spending, including increasing transfer payments to residents by nearly 20%, to maintain economic resilience. This has helped stabilize consumer spending despite rising inflation pressures [4][5]. 3. **Inflation and Fed's Role**: The Federal Reserve's inability to control inflation has led to a collapse in its credibility, which in turn undermines the value of the dollar. The Fed's actions, including purchasing long-term bonds, may lead to persistent inflation [4][5]. 4. **Strong US Consumer Demand**: Despite challenges, US consumer demand remains robust, and trade deficits are expected to normalize over time. The depreciation of the dollar creates a favorable export environment for China [6][7]. 5. **Global Manufacturing Cycle**: The global manufacturing sector is entering a cyclical upswing, driven by improvements in supply-side conditions. Non-US economies are expected to perform better, with China's exports likely to exceed expectations [7][8]. 6. **Impact of De-globalization**: The breakdown of globalization allows emerging markets to have more autonomy in their monetary and fiscal policies, leading to enhanced domestic demand and positive growth for non-US economies [8][9]. 7. **US Re-industrialization**: The slow pace of re-industrialization in the US necessitates continued imports of capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediate goods, which is expected to benefit Chinese exports [9][10]. 8. **Chinese Market Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance in the Chinese market is improving, with rising asset prices driven by the appreciation of the yuan and favorable external demand conditions [11][12]. 9. **Core Asset and Financial Sector Outlook**: There is a positive outlook for core assets and the financial sector in China, particularly for insurance companies, as the yuan's appreciation benefits their operations [13][14]. 10. **Export Prospects and US Economic Policy Uncertainty**: Export prospects may exceed expectations, but there is a need to monitor uncertainties in US economic policy. A stable US economy, even without significant growth, can support good export performance [15]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the structural changes in global capital flows and the potential for non-US economies to thrive in a weaker dollar environment, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets and commodities [1][2][6][8]. - The discussions emphasize the importance of monitoring US economic policies and their implications for global trade dynamics, particularly for countries like China that are positioned to benefit from these changes [15].

以下文章来源于六里投研 ，作者投资报 六里投研 . 专注基金投资20年，对话过几乎所有顶级投资人。来一起探索投资世界，提升你的商业洞察力。 来源 | 六里投研 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今天（6月11日），在一场香港投资峰会上，知名经济学家洪灏就中美关系、贸易战、货币问题以及经济再平衡等 话题分享了他的最新观点。 洪灏赞同中美关系"像一对夫妻在离婚过程中争吵"， 双方在未来将再无瓜葛，但与此同时，他们仍然必须承受后 果，并且要讨论如何分割财产。 而对于贸易战，洪灏提出，中国相比以前，这次准备得更为充分， 同时，考虑到这场贸易战的进程，以及它是如何 开始的，它实际上以某种方式将中国人民团结在了一起。如果你身在中国大陆，你真的能感受到这种气氛，中国人 民以"吃苦"而闻名，在中国文化中，"吃苦"意味着，你可以忍受巨大的艰辛很长一段时间。 洪灏认为，中国经济更多的是投资驱动，而不是消费驱动。要达到经济再平衡，仅靠中国自身的力量是无法成功 的，过去20年都没有取得成功。 因此，我们必须改变思维方式。 经济再平衡应该是一个全球再平衡的过程，中美需共同努力。 投资报（liulishidian）精译了洪灏分享的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch indicates that the depreciation of the US dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, increasing economic and fiscal pressures on major oil-exporting countries [1] - The reduction of US international aid has heightened risks faced by some emerging markets [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar alleviates the burden of dollar-denominated debt for emerging markets [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

Group 1: Tax Legislation and Corporate Response - Approximately 70 multinational company executives gathered in Washington to lobby against Section 899 of the "Big Beautiful" tax bill, which would impose additional taxes on companies from "tax policy punitive" countries, affecting most EU countries, the UK, Australia, and Canada [1] - Nearly 200 foreign companies operating in the U.S., including Shell, Toyota, SAP, and LVMH, expressed concerns over the potential impact of this tax, which could threaten 8.4 million jobs in the U.S. [1] - The tax provision is projected to raise $116 billion for the U.S. over the next decade, but the overall tax bill is expected to increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion by 2034 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Currency Trends - Morgan Stanley warned that the U.S. dollar could depreciate by 9% over the next year due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially reaching levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic [3] - The dollar index has already fallen nearly 10% since its peak in January, with expectations that a weaker dollar will strengthen safe-haven currencies like the euro and yen [3] - The recent decline in the dollar index below 99 is attributed to easing inflation concerns and rising expectations for rate cuts, with limited factors supporting a dollar rebound [4] Group 3: Corporate Acquisitions and Strategic Moves - Qualcomm announced the acquisition of UK semiconductor company Alphawave for approximately $2.4 billion, representing a 96% premium over Alphawave's pre-announcement closing price [6] - This acquisition is seen as strategically significant for Qualcomm, enhancing its capabilities in data center and AI sectors, despite the high valuation compared to public market levels [6] - Meta is reportedly negotiating a multi-billion dollar investment in AI data labeling company Scale AI, which could become one of the largest private financings in history, aimed at bolstering Meta's competitive position in AI [8] Group 4: AI Industry Developments - Scale AI, valued at $14 billion with projected revenues of $2 billion by 2025, is expanding its services from traditional data labeling to specialized fields like healthcare and law [8] - The investment from Meta is expected to enhance Scale AI's market position and assist Meta in catching up with competitors like Google and OpenAI in the AI space [9] - The demand for high-quality data is critical in the AI era, with well-analyzed data being viewed as a valuable asset, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [9]

美元的贬值已在重塑全球货币流动格局。随着投资者纷纷寻求避险，欧元、日元和瑞士法郎等避险资产 正受到青睐。由梅拉・钱丹(Meera Chandan)领导的摩根大通策略师5月向投资者表示，维持对美元的看 跌立场，转而建议增持日元、欧元和澳元。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利对美元前景发出警示，预测随着美联储降息举措生效，美元在未来一年 将大幅贬值。该银行预计，美元指数可能暴跌9%，甚至可能跌至自疫情初期低点以来未见的水平。 随着交易员和分析师对美国总统唐纳德・特朗普具颠覆性的贸易政策展开评估，摩根士丹利的报告加入 了质疑美元前景的行列。 该行董事总经理马修・霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)等策略师在近日报告中指出，美元指数将下跌约 9%，2026年同期将跌至91点左右。这一预测意味着美元跌势将进一步加剧，而贸易动荡正持续对美元 形成压力。 不过，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，当前看跌情绪尚未达到历史极端水平，这暗示美 元未来可能进一步走弱。 策略师指出，这一变化是由美联储激进的宽松路径推动的，市场预计到2025年年中，美联储将累计降息 175个基点，这一降息周期始于2024年9月的意外 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Euro, revising the forecast higher to 1.25 in 12 months from 1.20, suggesting a buy recommendation for a 6-month EUR/USD digital call option at 1.25 with a risk-reward ratio of 1.35 for approximately 7.3% [2][10][12]. Core Insights - The US Dollar has experienced a decline of about 6% this year, reversing its previous gains, and the report suggests that this depreciation trend is likely to continue due to slowing economic performance and skepticism regarding foreign investment in US assets [10][13][26]. - The report highlights the potential end of the easing cycle for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), indicating that after a series of rate cuts, the RBI has signaled limited space for further monetary support, with inflation forecasts adjusted accordingly [5][37]. - The report discusses the implications of fiscal risks on the Dollar, noting that while higher yields have been accepted as compensation for holding US debt, concerns about fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker Dollar and higher yields in the future [20][26]. Summary by Sections Euro Forecast - The forecast for EUR/USD has been adjusted to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, reflecting a more bullish outlook [12][13]. - A digital call option for EUR/USD at 1.25 is recommended, with a maximum payout of 13.7 times the premium paid [14]. US Dollar Analysis - The report notes that the broad Dollar has fallen approximately 6% this year, with a stable performance against other developed market currencies over the past six weeks [10][13]. - The report suggests that the current adjustment in the Dollar's value is more indicative of a transitional phase rather than a definitive end to its depreciation [10][13]. RBI and Indian Market Insights - The RBI has cut policy rates by 100 basis points in the current cycle, indicating a likely end to the easing cycle, with inflation expected to rise to around 4.5% by mid-2026 [5][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and credit growth, noting that the RBI may maintain rates unless there is a significant slowdown in growth [37][38]. Singapore Dollar Strategy - The report recommends shorting the Singapore Dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGDNEER) via options, given the low likelihood of the Monetary Authority of Singapore widening the trading band [28][32]. - The strategy is based on the expectation of a major USD rebound and the current large front-end rate differential between USD and SGD [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have all declined, reaching their lowest levels since December 2020 and July 2023, indicating a weakening trend in the yuan against other currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS yuan exchange rate index is reported at 95.58, down 0.38 week-on-week, marking the lowest since December 2020 [1] - BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stands at 101.23, down 0.35 week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1] - SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index is at 90.66, down 0.27 week-on-week [1] Dollar Performance - The US dollar has experienced a weekly decline of 0.24%, closing at 99.2, influenced by tariff policies and economic data [5] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated against the dollar, with the euro rising 0.42% to 1.13, the British pound increasing by 0.54%, and the Australian dollar up 0.95% to 0.649 [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that despite strong US non-farm payroll data, the underlying trends indicate a slowing economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will not adopt a more hawkish stance, which will keep the dollar under pressure [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts a new phase of dollar depreciation, with overseas investors diversifying their investments away from US assets [5][6] Future Yuan Outlook - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, suggesting that trade competitiveness will support a stronger yuan in the long term [6][7] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the yuan to appreciate to 7.0 against the dollar by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [8] - Goldman Sachs also anticipates a gradual rise of the yuan to 7.0 against the dollar over the next 12 months, supported by several factors including central bank interventions and improved export competitiveness [8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,853 billion, an increase of $36 billion from the end of April, supported by improving economic conditions [9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), marking a continuous increase for seven months [10]

Group 1 - The first key point is the upcoming China-US economic consultation meeting in the UK, indicating a potential resolution to previous negotiation issues, which may positively impact the A-share market expectations [1] - Morgan Stanley and HSBC are optimistic about Chinese stocks, predicting increased capital inflow over the next 6 to 12 months, highlighting that global investors currently have low exposure to Chinese stocks [1] - The expectation of a weaker US dollar and the profit growth of Chinese companies are driving interest in Chinese stocks, particularly offshore Chinese stocks like Hong Kong stocks, due to anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi [1] Group 2 - The emphasis on the importance of investing in Hong Kong stocks, with a belief that the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index will outperform A-shares in the long term [2] - The influx of foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks is significant, as foreign investors prefer to enter through the Hong Kong market due to its globalized nature and liquidity [2] - The changing global capital landscape, driven by a weakening US dollar and risks associated with high US debt, is expected to attract global funds to Chinese stocks, with Hong Kong as the entry point [2] Group 3 - The central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, reflecting ongoing gold purchases as a risk hedge against the depreciating dollar and high US debt risks [4] - The global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves indicates a lack of confidence in the dollar and US debt, highlighting gold's scarcity as a valuable asset [4] - The expectation of stable or rising international gold prices suggests potential investment opportunities in gold, despite market fluctuations [4]