Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, influenced by various factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, but analysts believe that there are still opportunities for bullish positions as negative sentiment dissipates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has shown signs of volatility and adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.67% on July 18 to 1.73% by July 25 [2]. - The stock market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and gaining 4.3% in July, which has diverted some funds away from the bond market [2]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to increased risk appetite and a rise in funding rates, leading to a significant sell-off in bond funds [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the recent adjustments, there are positive factors emerging, such as increased buying from insurance institutions, which reached a new high since April 2020, indicating potential support for the bond market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current bond market levels present a good value for investment, particularly in long-duration government bonds and recently adjusted perpetual bonds [6][7]. - The expectation is that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% as market risks ease, and there are notable opportunities in credit bonds, especially in municipal investment bonds and insurance subordinated debt [6][7].

Group 1: Insurance Sector Insights - The recent adjustment in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance is expected to alleviate the pressure of interest rate losses, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [2][5][24] - The insurance industry association has announced a new predetermined interest rate of 1.99%, triggering a mechanism for rate adjustments, with major insurers planning to switch to new products by September [3][4][22] - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates is anticipated to improve the cost of liabilities, with a focus on transforming towards floating income products [4][24] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations due to various factors, including tightening liquidity and rising commodity prices, leading to a notable decline in bond prices [7][9] - The current high duration and leverage in the bond market limit the strategic flexibility of investors, making them more vulnerable to market volatility [8] - The recent rise in commodity prices poses a greater threat to the bond market than previous stock market gains, as it contradicts the fundamental pricing of bonds [9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in major insurance companies such as New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance due to expected improvements in profitability and asset-liability matching [5][24] - The insurance sector is projected to see stable profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in the stock and bond markets [22][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued insurance stocks for potential valuation recovery opportunities [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for various commodities including纯碱, crude oil, short - term and long - term national bonds, silver, etc. It offers trading suggestions such as waiting and seeing, short - term selling, or paying attention to certain market indicators for each commodity [1][2][4]. Itemized Summaries Non - Metal Chemicals - **纯碱**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1315.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 72.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, but actual output release is slow. Trump's remarks on Russia have pushed up overnight crude oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The plant operating rate has declined this week, and terminal demand is affected by rainfall and funds. It will still follow the trend of crude oil and be traded with an oscillatory mindset [10]. Bonds - **Short - term National Bonds**: The money market interest rates have mostly declined, indicating a loosening of the capital side, which is favorable for the bond market. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market has weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market [4]. - **Long - term National Bonds**: Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, and the market expects a stable agreement. Policy factors are unfavorable for the bond market. The main logical line of the bond market is not clear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [4]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the benchmark interest rate. It is in the expected market of the July Fed interest - rate meeting. The judgment of high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish bias is maintained [5]. - **Gold**: US tariff disturbances still exist, but the market focus has shifted. The upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is still oscillating with a bearish bias but may rebound in the short - term [6]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The wholesale price of pork has decreased. Near the end of the month, the supply is greater than demand, and the sales pressure of the breeding side has increased. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia has increased, and exports have decreased. The domestic basis has decreased, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level in the short - term, and short - selling is recommended [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The news of reducing pig production and promoting soybean meal substitutes in feed has put pressure on the market. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is high, and the short - term M09 may oscillate weakly [7]. Plastics - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 26.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton. Port inventory has decreased, and production enterprise inventory has also decreased. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 2440. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [9]. - **PX**: The supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation has eased. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Ferrous Metals - **Manganese Silicon**: The production of finished products is stable at a high level, and downstream demand is resilient. However, manufacturers' resumption of production is advancing, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become loose. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and the upside space in the long - term should be viewed with caution [12]. - **Coke**: Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin have raised the price of coke. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. After the short - term release of market sentiment, the coke futures will have a phased correction [13]. Building Materials - **Rebar**: The steel market has declined. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down, the market sentiment of speculation has cooled, and the steel price has followed the decline [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the adjustment mechanism for the predetermined interest rate in the life insurance sector has been triggered, which is expected to alleviate the pressure from interest rate differentials [3][4][5] Group 2 - On July 25, the insurance industry association held a meeting and determined that the current research value for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 1.99% [3] - The low interest rate environment has led to high liability costs for insurance companies, raising concerns about interest rate differentials. A dynamic adjustment mechanism is beneficial for timely reductions in predetermined interest rates based on market rates [3] - Since 2025, the 10-year government bond yield has generally ranged between 1.6% and 1.9%, while the upper limit for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 2.5%, indicating ongoing asset-liability matching pressures [3] - The insurance industry association will publish the research value for predetermined interest rates quarterly, and if the maximum predetermined interest rate of products sold exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, adjustments will be made [3] - As of July 25, China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance announced that they will adjust the maximum guaranteed interest rates for new products, with reductions of 50 basis points for traditional insurance, 25 basis points for participating insurance, and 50 basis points for universal insurance [4] - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to alleviate the risk of interest rate differentials, with floating income products becoming a future transformation direction for the industry [4] - Since May 20, the interest rates for three- and five-year fixed deposits at major state-owned banks have generally fallen below 1.5%, making savings insurance products still relatively attractive [4] - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to further reduce the cost of new business liabilities and improve the risk of interest rate differentials in the long term [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market and the overall economic environment in China, particularly focusing on the corporate sector's profitability and the relationship between stock and bond markets [1][2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: Aimed at curbing low-price competition and enhancing product quality, this policy seeks to improve corporate profit margins from the current 19.5% to a historical average of 22% [1][8][9]. - **Profitability Pressure**: Chinese corporate profitability is under significant pressure, with the profit-to-revenue ratio at a historical low. The policy's effectiveness in improving profitability is contingent on demand-side support [1][8]. - **PPI and Profit Margins**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is crucial for improving industrial profit margins. A PPI increase to 2% is necessary for a 10% profit margin recovery, but achieving this is challenging given the current PPI of -3% [1][12][13]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The anti-involution measures are expected to gradually raise the long-term interest rate central tendency by 15-20 basis points, but this will take time to materialize [14][15]. Market Dynamics - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces headwinds from rising commodity prices and a strong stock market, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect where a 1% increase in stocks corresponds to a 0.045% decrease in bond futures [2][3][5][17]. - **Investment Strategies**: Current strategies should focus on monitoring policy implementation and adjusting to short-term market fluctuations, with expected yield impacts in the range of 10-20 basis points [15][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Issues**: The anti-involution policy aims to address issues in sectors with excessive competition, such as coal and steel, where profit margins are severely impacted by price wars and demand shrinkage [4][7]. - **International Comparison**: Compared to countries like the US and Japan, which maintain a profit-to-GDP ratio around 25%, China's current ratio indicates a need for structural reforms to enhance profitability [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Risk**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility observed during periods of rapid market changes [20][21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the anti-involution policy on corporate profitability, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing heightened enthusiasm, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3600 points, marking a new high for the year and the first time since January 2022 that it closed above this level [1] - In contrast, the bond market has faced challenges, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising from 1.64% on July 9 to 1.74% on July 24, an increase of approximately 10 basis points [1] Factors Influencing Market Sentiment - The shift in short-term risk appetite is attributed to several factors, including the introduction of anti-involution policies that have boosted market inflation expectations and the commencement of major hydropower projects that have ignited bullish sentiment [1] - External market stability and a temporary stabilization of the RMB exchange rate have also contributed to a recovery in risk appetite [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to concerns about the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, which may suppress bond performance. Historical data indicates that past stock rallies typically led to a more significant increase in bond yields compared to the current situation [2][3] - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, diverging from historical patterns where cyclical and consumer stocks led the charge [2] Policy Impact on Bonds - The anti-involution policies are not expected to pose substantial risks to the bond market in the short term, as the effects of these policies on industry profitability and inflation will take time to materialize [4] - The major hydropower project, while significant, has a long construction period of 10 years, limiting its immediate impact on bond supply [4] Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in the bond market may occur due to sentiment changes driven by key market themes, but the fundamental outlook of strong production and weak demand remains unchanged [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market conditions [4] Investment Strategies - For conservative investors, a "barbell strategy" combining short-term and long-term bonds is recommended to balance steady income and capital gains [6] - For those seeking moderate returns with limited risk tolerance, mixed funds that combine bonds with a small percentage of equities can provide a balanced approach to risk and return [9]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced accelerated adjustments with increased redemption pressure during the week of July 21-25, leading to a tightening of market funds initially, followed by a loosening towards the end of the week [1] - The 10-year government bond yield broke above 1.70% for the first time since late May, indicating significant adjustment pressure [1] - The stock market showed positive sentiment, with indices reaching new highs for the year, which diverted some funds from the bond market [1] Weekly Review - On July 21, the LPR remained unchanged as expected, with a generally loose funding environment, but bond yields continued to rise [2] - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.677% on July 21, up 1.3 basis points from the previous week, and continued to increase throughout the week, reaching 1.745% by July 24 [2] - By July 25, after a significant net injection of over 600 billion yuan by the central bank, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 1.73% [2] Bond Futures - The bond futures market also saw fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond contract T2509 closing at 108.18, down 0.07% for the week [4] - Other maturities, such as the 5-year and 30-year contracts, also experienced declines, with weekly drops of 0.04% and 0.48% respectively [4] Convertible Bonds - The China Convertible Bond Index closed at 463.57, up 0.11% on July 25, with a weekly increase of 2.14% [5] - The trading volume for convertible bonds increased significantly, with a total of 2,443 million hands traded, amounting to 403.4 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 253 million hands [5] Bond Issuance - A total of 84 bonds were issued in the market, with a total scale of 939.805 billion yuan, an increase of 283.312 billion yuan from the previous week [6] - The Ministry of Finance issued 5 government bonds, with a total issuance scale increasing by 49.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [8] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with a net injection of 6,018 billion yuan on July 25 [15] - The weighted average rate for R001 fell to 1.55%, while R007 rose to 1.69% due to month-end funding effects [17] International Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.38% [19] - European bond markets reacted to the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates, leading to increased yields in the German and Italian bonds [22] Industry Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent market adjustments are primarily driven by changes in risk appetite, funding fluctuations, and shifts in trading positions [32] - The "anti-involution" measures and their impact on demand are critical factors to monitor for the bond market's medium-term outlook [32]

TERN TO HISTHER 固定收益周报 本轮债市调整的特征、原因及后续空间 证券研究报告 ● 核心结论 权益、商品表现亮眼背景下,债市调整加剧,债基或遭遇大额赎回。或因遭 遇较大赎回压力,周内基金大量卖债,单日卖出规模近千亿。 本轮调整有何特征?(1)价格角度:本轮调整幅度较小、时间不长,但前 期市场已持续阴跌近三周。(2)数量角度:本轮调整中基金现券净卖出规 模较大、理财端维持净买入。 本轮调整原因何在?(1)风险偏好上行、基本面预期边际改善为主要因素。 但与 2015年供给侧改革相比,本轮反内卷政策供需失衡行业占比增多,且 主要针对中下游民企,相对于上一轮集中在上游国企而言,本轮对 PPI 的影 响或更小,后续关注供给端限产情况与需求端改善情况。(2)货币政策态 度转变担忧、前期市场拥挤度高放大市场波动。 分析师 S0800524020002 15692145933 iiangpeishan@research.xbmail.com.cn 魏旭博 S0800525040007 13001269355 weixubo@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 P 后续调整空间还有多大?结合本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the bond market continued to correct, hitting the largest decline since April. The correction was due to multiple negative factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, commodity price increases, and tightened funds. After the central bank's MLF and OMO injections on Friday, the decline converged [8][13]. - There are three key considerations for this bond market correction: the reason for the lack of a double - bull market in stocks and bonds lies in actual money flows and central bank's money supply; high - duration crowding restricts the bond market's strategic space; the impact of commodity price increases on the bond market is greater than that of the previous rise in financial stocks [8][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Three Reflections on the Current Bond Market Correction 1.1 Why There Is No Double - Bull Market in Stocks and Bonds - The stock - bond seesaw after July deviated from the normal logic of the DDM model. The outflow of funds from the bond market and the tightened expectation of central bank's injection might be the main reasons. The funds flowing into the bond market are not cheap, and there is also an issue of funds overflowing to the equity market due to low bond market interest rates [8][13]. - The strength of the equity market led to the outflow of high - risk - preference funds from the bond market. Currently, the bond market is in a situation where the stock is strong and the bond is weak, with the cash - CD spread widening and the rising capital interest rate further suppressing the bond market. However, in 2015, even when the stock market was extremely bullish, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond only increased by about 20bp [14]. - Under the current stable and loose monetary policy, funds flow more strongly into the equity market than the bond market. In reality, equity institutions rely on funds "overflowing" from the bond market; in terms of expectations, the central bank's loose policy statements boost market sentiment. Since 2025, both aspects have been positive for the equity market. On the contrary, the central bank's cautious medium - term capital injection has led to an obvious outflow of institutional funds from the bond market, and the bond market faces the problem of expensive medium - term stable funds [15]. - The key for the bond market to strengthen lies in whether the CD rate can decline naturally. In the short term, observe the decline rate of cross - month CDs and gradually increase positions following the downward trend. In the long term, 1.7% may be a hard resistance level for 1 - year CDs, and as bank funds stop flowing out and the replacement of deposit rates is completed, the CD rate may decline naturally [5][19]. 1.2 What High - Duration Crowding Means - Around June, the bond market saw consistent bullish expectations, crowded institutional behaviors, and rising bond fund durations, but the cash bond interest rate did not decline significantly. Although the long - term logic is still optimistic, high leverage has led to a lack of strategic adjustment space and defensive flexibility for investors, making it difficult to wait for the long - term logic to materialize [6][22]. - In a high - duration and high - leverage environment, the cash bond position adjustment mode is limited, and only "buying short and selling long" can be used. When long - and short - term expectations deviate, the market tends to sell long - term bonds. Moreover, asset management institutions face liability - side pressure and may be forced to sell bonds, making it difficult to maintain long - term positions [6][23]. - In an environment where institutional behaviors are highly crowded but expectations are not met, investors can actively reduce duration exposure or switch to more liquid assets. Although the bond market stabilized slightly on Friday, the bulls in Treasury bond futures are still fragile. It is recommended to wait for the improvement of sentiment and technical indicators before betting on the next possible positive factors [6][28]. 1.3 The Difference in the Impact on the Bond Market between Commodity and Financial Stock Price Increases - The rise in commodity prices has a greater impact on the bond market than the previous rise in bank stocks. Bank stocks and bonds are both safe - haven assets under the expectation of a gentle economic recovery, and their fluctuations only lead to a mild adjustment of funds between stocks and bonds. However, the rise in commodity futures reflects the expectation of economic recovery, which is completely opposite to the underlying logic of the bond market's strength. Once commodities continue to strengthen, it will subvert the core pricing basis of the bond market and cause violent fluctuations [8][29]. - Currently, only supply - side changes have occurred, and the recovery of demand is still unclear. There is no need to rush to revise the expectation of the interest rate center upwards in the short term [29]. 2. Weekly Bond Market Review - **Funds**: From July 21st to July 25th, 2025, the central bank conducted 16,563 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 17,268 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan. The DR001 rate rose 6.08bp to 1.52%, the DR007 rate rose 14.56bp to 1.65%, and the 1 - year AAA CD rate rose 5.75bp to 1.68% [31]. - **Cash Bonds and Futures**: Referring to ChinaBond valuations, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose 5.52bp, 7.92bp, 6.72bp, and 8.4bp respectively. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CDB bonds rose 5.58bp, 9.53bp, 9.05bp, and 4.93bp respectively. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts fell 0.12%, 0.4%, 0.56%, and 2.08% respectively. - **Primary Market**: In the past week, 81 interest - rate bonds were issued, totaling 939.8 billion yuan, including 5 Treasury bonds worth 406 billion yuan, 15 policy - bank bonds worth 158 billion yuan, and 61 local government bonds worth 375.8 billion yuan. The total repayment of interest - rate bonds last week was 618.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 321.2 billion yuan [33]. - **Market Sentiment**: Throughout the week, the stock - bond seesaw and tight funds pressured the bond market sentiment, and interest rates fluctuated upwards. At the beginning of the week, the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and market speculation on policies led to the strengthening of stocks and commodities, and the bond market sentiment was continuously pressured. On Thursday night, the central bank's window guidance and increased OMO injection on Friday provided some support to the bond market, and interest rates declined slightly [34]. 3. Relative Asset Value 3.1 Overall Expansion of Yield Spreads of Treasury and CDB Bonds at Various Maturities - Except for the long - end CDB yield spread (30Y - 10Y), the yield spreads of Treasury and CDB bonds at various maturities generally expanded, and most were still below the median of historical percentiles. The spread between Treasury and CDB bonds also expanded. The spread between new and old bonds generally contracted, especially the spread between new and old Treasury bonds [44]. - The non - CDB - CDB yield spread expanded or contracted differently, and the local government bond yield spread generally contracted [44]. 3.2 Credit Bonds: Overall Widening of Maturity and Credit Spreads - The maturity spreads of various credit bonds generally widened. The maturity spreads of enterprise bonds and secondary - capital bonds showed a pattern of long - end contraction and short - end expansion. The credit spreads of various credit bonds generally expanded, and most were still below the median of historical percentiles [46].