Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, 2025, Sino-US trade frictions have occurred from time to time. The bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. If subsequent Sino-US tariff games continue, bond yields may first decline rapidly and then fluctuate on a new platform [2]. - After the tariff event, risk appetite may cool slightly compared to the third quarter. If the equity market weakens, the stock-bond seesaw effect will support the bond market, and the market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut may fluctuate, promoting a phased easing of bond market sentiment. However, the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term [3][35]. - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. The configuration disk does not need to replenish positions immediately but can gradually build positions during market adjustments. The trading disk can operate in small bands of 3-5bp. Credit bonds may have a supplementary increase, and attention should be paid to the coupon opportunities of general credit bonds and the short-term trading opportunities of perpetual bonds [4]. Summary by Directory I. Tariff Disturbances Recur, but This Time It's Different (1) Event Review: Sino-US Frictions Have Intensified Since October - On the evening of October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, and export controls on all key software. Since October, frictions have emerged in multiple aspects such as ship fees, rare earth export controls, and anti-monopoly investigations. This event is similar to the April tariff event but different in the game situation, with stronger controllability and leaving room for subsequent negotiations [7][12]. (2) Bond Market Performance: Long-Term Pricing Is Fast, and Both Trading and Allocation Enter Actively - On the morning of October 11, bond yields declined rapidly, with both interest rate and credit bonds recovering. The yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds and 10y CDB bonds declined by 3-5bp, outperforming the short-term. High-grade credit bond yields generally declined, with bonds over 5 years performing better, especially the perpetual bonds of banks leading the rise. Institutions such as funds and securities firms actively went long on interest rate bonds [7][17][22]. II. How Has Tariff Disturbance Affected the Market This Year? - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, Sino-US trade frictions have affected the bond market. By sorting out the performance of the 10-year treasury bond active bond at 9 key tariff points, it is found that the bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. The yield range of the 10-year treasury bond active bond mostly fluctuates within 3BP, and the bond market usually completes pricing within 4 trading days [2][29][34]. III. The Bond Market's Short-Term Sentiment Eases, and Attention Should Be Paid to Gradually Adding Positions During Fluctuations - After the tariff event, bond yields may still have a small downward space, but the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. Different investment strategies are proposed for different types of investors, and credit bonds may have a supplementary increase [3][35][40]. IV. Review of the Interest Rate Bond Market: The Stock Market's Phased Volatility and the Escalation of Tariff Frictions Have Eased Bond Market Sentiment (1) Funding Situation: The Central Bank's OMO Has Significantly Net Recovered, and the Funding Situation Is Balanced and Loose - The central bank's OMO has significantly net recovered funds, but the overall funding situation is balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 weighted prices have declined, and the funding sentiment index has been relatively stable [11][50][51]. (2) Primary Issuance: The Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Has Increased, While the Net Financing of Local Bonds Has Decreased - The net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit has increased, while the net financing of local bonds has decreased [57][59][61]. (3) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds Have Both Narrowed - The short-term yields of treasury bonds and CDB bonds have declined, and the long-term yields have declined more significantly, resulting in a narrowing of the term spreads [55].

Macro Perspective - On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on goods imported from China, effective November 1, as a response to China's export controls on rare earths [2][6] - In the first eight months of this year, China's exports increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while imports grew by 2.5%. However, exports to the US fell by 15.5% [2] - The escalation of tariffs could further pressure Chinese exports, but growth in non-US markets may provide some buffer against domestic economic impacts [2][3] Strategy Perspective - The announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April led to stable performance in sectors like daily consumption and public utilities, which could serve as short-term hedges against uncertainty [4] - Certain manufacturing sectors, such as passenger vehicles and white goods, are expected to be more resilient to tariff impacts due to capacity expansion overseas [4] Fixed Income Perspective - The new tariffs have sparked concerns about market volatility, with potential implications for asset prices. Observing the implied volatility in the options market may provide insights into market sentiment [5][6] - The impact of the tariffs on the domestic capital market is expected to be limited, with the possibility of tariff cancellation or reduction remaining [6] Pharmaceutical Industry Perspective - China's pharmaceutical exports to the US were valued at $19 billion in 2024, with a 12% increase, while imports were $15.1 billion, down 4.6% [8] - The tariff impacts are expected to primarily affect companies with significant US market exposure, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [8] Computer Industry Perspective - Domestic software products have gained traction in government and financial sectors, with a shift towards enterprise applications [12] - The urgency for domestic alternatives in EDA software has increased due to trade tensions, with local vendors beginning to gain competitive ground [13] Semiconductor Industry Perspective - The trade tensions have accelerated the push for domestic semiconductor production, particularly in areas with high external dependency [13][14] - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector has made significant progress, with local manufacturers entering mainstream production lines [14] Metals Industry Perspective - The market's acceptance of tariff expectations is higher than before, suggesting that after initial panic, opportunities in non-ferrous metals may become more pronounced [7][9] - Strategic metals are increasingly important in the context of US-China relations, highlighting potential investment opportunities in this sector [10]

Group 1: Market Analysis - USD/CNY - China's export growth in August 2025 slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, the lowest in six months, and exports to the US declined by about 33.1% year-on-year. Import growth was weak, and overall import-export momentum weakened [1]. - Trump announced on October 10 that an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods would be imposed starting from November 1, signaling an escalation of Sino-US trade friction. This increases external pressure on the RMB, and there is a risk of RMB depreciation if the tariffs are eventually implemented [1]. - The new tariff proposal increased the short - term market demand for the US dollar as a safe - haven asset. The US dollar index attempted to rebound this week, but the increase narrowed without breaking through major resistance levels [1]. - The Fed's meeting minutes continued to send a dovish signal, with officials inclined to further interest rate cuts in the future, but inflation risks and balance - sheet adjustments were still widely concerned. Due to the partial government shutdown in the US, the release of core economic data was restricted, limiting the US dollar's upward momentum [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Exchange Rates - Economic expectation differentials are favorable for the RMB. There is a divergence in the market's view of the US dollar's future path due to the co - existence of economic growth and inflation. China has policy intervention and domestic demand support despite export and manufacturing downward pressure [2]. - The Sino - US interest rate differential is favorable for the RMB. With the decline of short - term US interest rates and China not significantly cutting interest rates, the interest rate differential may tilt towards the RMB [2]. - Trade policy uncertainty is favorable for the US dollar. Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1 signals an escalation risk of trade friction, which may trigger short - term exchange rate fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Other Currencies - The euro is under new downward pressure due to political upheaval in France. The resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu and the subsequent attempt to form a new cabinet have raised questions about the stability of the French government, weakening market confidence in the eurozone's fiscal policy implementation and causing the euro to be under pressure against the US dollar [3]. - The Japanese yen has come under pressure recently. After conservative politician Takaichi Sanae was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the market generally expects more stimulative economic policies, leading to an increase in long - term bond yields. On the day of Takaichi's victory, the yen fell more than 1.9% against the US dollar to 150.35, the largest single - day decline in five months. The widening of the US - Japan interest rate differential and carry - trade sentiment have further exacerbated the pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Strategies - For the USD/CNY exchange rate, during the window period when the tariff suspension is extended to November, the exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.20 in the short term. Key factors to watch include the Fed's interest rate movements, US employment and inflation data, and the implementation of Sino - US trade policies [4]. - The euro is expected to be weak against the US dollar in the short term due to the weak eurozone economy, limited policy space, and political instability in France [4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate may continue its upward trend in the short term due to changes in the Japanese political situation, the widening interest rate differential, and carry - trade flows. However, if the Bank of Japan intervenes or changes its policy, it may resist the upward momentum of the US dollar [5].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented stricter export controls on rare earth elements, particularly affecting the semiconductor industry and potentially impacting overseas chip manufacturing processes [1][10][16] - China dominates global rare earth supply, holding approximately 48.41% of the world's rare earth reserves and producing 68.54% of the total output [12][14] - The new export controls cover all 12 types of medium and heavy rare earth elements, marking a significant expansion in the scope of regulation [2][4] Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - The recent announcements (2025 No. 56 and 57) include export controls on rare earth equipment and raw materials, specifically targeting key technologies in rare earth mining, refining, and manufacturing [1][2] - The controls also extend to any downstream products that utilize Chinese rare earth technologies, requiring export licenses for a wide range of applications [5][10] Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are critical in various industries, including defense and semiconductor manufacturing, where they enhance material properties and performance [6][7] - The military applications of rare earths are significant, with advanced weapon systems heavily reliant on these materials [6] Semiconductor Industry Impact - The new regulations are the first to explicitly cover the semiconductor sector, which may lead to increased scrutiny and delays in overseas chip production [10][11] - Rare earths are essential for high-performance materials in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly as technology advances towards smaller transistor sizes [7][10] Renewable Energy Sector - Rare earths play a crucial role in the renewable energy sector, particularly in electric vehicle motors and wind turbine generators, with rare earth permanent magnets accounting for over 80% of the electric motor market share [11][12] Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights that while the U.S. is attempting to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, China's control over the entire rare earth industry chain remains unchallenged in the short term [15][16] - The overall completeness of the rare earth supply chain in the West is still lacking, with many projects facing delays and challenges [14][15]

3、科技板块或遭受短期波动，但烈度目前可控 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、特朗普威胁对中加征100％关税，从细节看是否有缓和余地？ 2、中方周日表态，几个细节看"摩擦"是否可控 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、特朗普威胁对中加征100％关税，从细节看是否有缓和余地？ 消息一出，市场仿佛瞬间穿越回今年4月全球股市暴跌的前夜——当时也是中美摩擦骤然升温，特朗普 对华加征逾100%关税，中国迅速强硬反制，全球股市重挫：美股整体跌约20%，科技板块跌超30%，债 市、汇市"三杀"，恐慌蔓延至A股，不过跌幅与持续时间均小于美股。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 这个周末确实爆出了重磅消息：美国突然威胁对中国再度加征高额关税。这是否会彻底终结近几个月来 的A股小牛市？我们一起来推敲。 先看新闻。10月10日（周五）晚间，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上突然 ...

特朗普新一轮关税威胁引发全球市场波动，不同于4月的突发性冲击，多家机构指出市场已积累应对经验，恐慌程度明显降低。 民生证券邵翔团队观察到，VIX指数虽有上升但未达极端水平，海外市场反应更为"淡定"。中金刘刚团队最新数据显示，当前VIX指数为21.7，远 低于4月对等关税后的60。 广发刘晨明团队认为，这次大概率是又一次的"TACO交易"，急跌将带来买入机会。民生邵翔团队表示，目前看来本轮更像5月——避免失控的基 调下市场对于摩擦和波折的定价。民生牟一凌团队则较为谨慎：根据4月以来的经验，不只是简单的"坏消息"后就是"黄金坑"，当下并非冲突缓和 就足以支撑继续上行。中金刘刚团队强调，相比4月初，相对"不利"的是浮盈较多、估值较高，获利了结和落袋为安意愿更多，会造成短期波动。 TACO派：历史经验支撑 广发刘晨明团队认为，此次事件大概率重复4月以来的"TACO交易"模式。 该团队强调，100%关税水平美方很难承担且失去经济学意义，更像谈判前的极限施压。该机构提到，今年已过去的四轮中美会谈前都出现过双方 制裁升级局面。 | 谈判轮次 | 日期 | 谈判议题 | 谈判前:美方举措 | 谈判前:中方举措 | | --- ...

Core Points - The article discusses Trump's announcement of a 100% increase in tariffs on China starting in November, alongside tighter controls on software exports to China, which he claims is a response to China's new rare earth policies [1][3] - China's Ministry of Commerce has announced stricter controls on the export of rare earth materials, which are crucial for various high-tech applications, including semiconductor manufacturing [3][7] - The article emphasizes China's dominant position in the global rare earth market, controlling 40% of the world's rare earth minerals and 70% of the global extraction volume, making it a critical player in this industry [5][8] Summary by Sections Tariff Increase and Software Export Controls - Trump plans to raise tariffs on China by 100% and impose stricter regulations on software exports, claiming it is a necessary measure against China's rare earth policies [1][3] - The new U.S. tariffs and export controls are seen as retaliatory actions against China's tightening of rare earth export regulations [3][8] China's Rare Earth Policy - China's new policy on rare earths covers a wide range of materials and processes, from mining to recycling, indicating a comprehensive approach to control [3][8] - The specific rare earth materials targeted are essential for manufacturing advanced technologies, such as 5G components and semiconductors [7][8] Strategic Implications - The article suggests that China's rare earth export controls are a strategic move to maintain leverage in negotiations with the U.S., countering perceived U.S. aggression in trade talks [10][14] - Experts believe that this escalation could lead to unprecedented confrontations between the U.S. and China, intensifying the ongoing trade war [10][14] Political Context - The article notes that Trump's declining approval ratings and various political challenges may influence his aggressive stance on trade with China [16][20] - The situation is further complicated by Trump's struggles with the Federal Reserve and internal party dynamics, which could impact his administration's approach to trade policies [20][22]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 中美贸易风波再起，美元高位震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率回落至 4.03%。美元指数涨 1.28%至 98.9，非美货币悉 数贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 1.06%，英镑跌 0.9%，日 元跌 2.52%，瑞郎跌 0.48%，雷亚尔跌 3.44%，新西兰元、澳 元、贬值约 2%，兰特、韩元、比索 泰铢跌超 1%，金价涨 3.4% 至 4018 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 21.66，现货商品指数收 跌，布油跌 2.8%至 64.48 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国政府在 10 月 1 日正式停摆，两党目前仍然未能就支出达成 一致，15 日军队发薪日成为关键时间节点，随着政府停摆时间 的延长，两党面临的压力都在增加，同时美国 9 月非农就业报 告和首申数据未能如期公布，经济也将受到拖累。中美贸易摩 擦再度升级，中国宣布对稀土出口进行管制后，美国总统特朗 普表示 11 月 1 日起要对中国商品再度加征 100%关税，即将到来 的 APEC 会 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent export control measures on rare earth elements are seen as a strategic display of power, showcasing its ability to influence global supply chains and trade dynamics, while also signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue [1][2][6]. Group 1: China's Export Control Measures - On October 9, China implemented its broadest export control measures on rare earth elements to date, allowing restrictions not only on raw materials but also on any equipment containing rare earth elements, potentially granting China significant leverage over various manufacturing sectors globally [1][2]. - The measures are perceived as a response to U.S. pressures and are intended to demonstrate China's confidence and strength in the face of external challenges [1][5]. Group 2: U.S. Market Reaction - Following China's announcement, U.S. markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 2%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [2]. - Former officials from the Trump administration noted that the current U.S. strategy appears reactive and lacks a long-term vision, contrasting with China's more strategic approach [5]. Group 3: Implications for U.S. Economy - Analysts warn that China's control over rare earth exports could severely impact the U.S. economy, especially if similar measures are extended to other critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology [6][8]. - The U.S. remains heavily reliant on foreign sources for rare earth materials, and efforts to increase domestic production are expected to take years, leaving the country vulnerable [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Context of U.S.-China Relations - The recent tensions highlight a fundamental difference in how the U.S. and China perceive their competition, with the U.S. attempting to separate trade from technology issues, while China views them as interconnected parts of a broader strategy to counter U.S. containment efforts [7][8]. - China's actions may be aimed at leveraging its influence to negotiate broader agreements with the U.S. beyond just trade, reflecting its strategic positioning in the global arena [8].