纽约联储主席Williams警告不要损害央行的独立性，攻击央行独立性往往会导致非常不幸的经济后果，包括高通胀。同时他表示当前货币政策立场稳 健，无需短期内调整利率，预计2026年GDP增长2.5%-2.75%，通胀2027年回落至2%目标。 攻击央行独立性往往会导致非常不幸的经济后果，包括高通胀。 货币政策立场明确，暂无降息紧迫性 Williams在演讲中指出，FOMC已将"适度限制性的货币政策立场调整至更接近中性水平"。 这位美联储三把手强调，让通胀回到2%目标"而不对就业市场造成不必要的风险"至关重要。 他补充说： 近几个月来，随着劳动力市场降温，就业方面的下行风险有所增加，而通胀的上行风险有所减轻。 美联储在去年将短期利率目标下调了0.75个百分点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%至3.75%之后，普遍被认为已进入维持利率政策的阶段。 在去年12月的政策会议上，官员们预计今年将再降息一次，前提是就业市场保持稳定，且随着特朗普反复无常实施的关税制度影响减弱，通胀压力将缓 解。然而，最新的就业市场数据显示，在通胀依然高企的情况下，就业需求依然疲软。 鲍威尔被起诉后，纽约联储主席John Williams ...

政府停摆的统计扭曲尚未消散：劳工统计局在11月和12月数据中用假设填补租金及部分价格缺口，导致 住房成本、核心商品增速偏离常态，分析师普遍建议在正式修正前谨慎解读月度波动。 牛津经济研究院的伯纳德.亚罗斯预计12月CPI环比或达0.4%(高于共识)，并指出"趋势需待年中才能显 现"。EY-Parthenon美国首席经济学家格雷戈里.达科表示，2026年初通胀仍将微升但不会飙升，关税压 力短期持续但不阻碍长期回落。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金于2026年1月13日报价1029.76元/克，日内小幅回调0.59%，但仍处于历史高位区间，与沪金 期货、黄金t+d走势高度同步，受国际金价突破4600美元/盎司及美联储降息预期强化驱动。技术面呈现 强势多头趋势：价格持续运行于5日与20日均线之上，形成多头排列，布林带开口向上，短期支撑位约 1020元/克，阻力位聚焦1035–1040元/克。RSI维持在65附近，未达超买阈值，MACD红柱虽缩量但未翻 绿，动能仍具延续性。市场情绪受工行1月12日上调积存金风险等级影响，投资者谨慎情绪升温，但实 物与账户黄金需求未见明显回落。当前核心矛盾为趋势延续与政策调控之间的 ...

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with prices trading above $84.29, opening at $85.16, and showing a decline of 0.81% to $84.47 as of the latest report [1] - The highest price reached was $85.39, while the lowest dipped to $83.40, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver prices [1] Group 2 - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams noted that inflation is influenced by tariffs, rising approximately 0.5 percentage points, primarily borne by the American public, but the underlying trend remains favorable without widespread price pressures [2] - He anticipates that inflation will peak in the first half of 2026 and gradually decline, returning to the 2% target level by 2027 [2] - Williams expressed optimism about the U.S. economic growth rate, projecting it to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, while emphasizing that monetary policy is currently "closer to neutral" and future decisions will depend strictly on data [2] - He highlighted the need for the Federal Reserve to balance controlling inflation with avoiding employment shocks as inflation risks diminish and employment market risks increase [2] Group 3 - Silver prices reached a high of around $86 recently, closing at $84.5, suggesting potential for adjustment while maintaining a bullish trend [3] - Support levels for silver are identified at $83.00 and $81.35, with resistance levels at $85.60 and $87.00 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading around 1026 CNY/gram, with the latest price at 1027.10 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.41%. The highest price reached was 1033.27 CNY/gram, while the lowest was 1026.25 CNY/gram, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1]. - The daily chart shows that gold prices have been closing with gains, despite a pullback at the end of the previous day. The current price is above the upper boundary of the daily chart, suggesting two possible scenarios: a potential upward movement after a pullback or the formation of a "piercing line" pattern if prices reach the upper channel boundary near 4650 [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 4578, 462, 4506, and 4463, while resistance levels are noted at 4600, 4609, 4625, 4648, and 4687 [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President Williams indicated that the U.S. economy is expected to grow healthily by 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee has adjusted monetary policy to a "near-neutral" level, balancing employment stability and inflation targeting at 2% [2]. - Williams projected a GDP growth rate of 2.5%-2.75% for the year, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and inflation peaking at 2.75%-3% in the first half of the year before declining to 2.5% for the full year, returning to the 2% target by 2027 [2]. - The backdrop of these statements includes unprecedented attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressures potentially impacting future policy decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is robust, with no immediate need for interest rate adjustments, as stated by New York Fed President John Williams [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Williams emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its "moderately restrictive monetary policy stance" closer to a neutral level [2]. - He noted that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [1][2]. - The expectation for GDP growth is optimistic, projected at 2.5% to 2.75%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Williams anticipates inflation will peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [1]. - He acknowledged that while inflation remains high, the labor market shows signs of cooling, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. Group 3: Defense of Powell and Independence Risks - Williams defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell, asserting his integrity and leadership during challenging times, amidst attacks on the Fed's independence [3]. - He warned against undermining the central bank's independence, stating that such attacks could lead to unfortunate economic consequences, including high inflation [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's response to the ongoing political and legal issues surrounding the Fed has been relatively calm, attributed to the uncertainty of how these matters will resolve [3][4]. - Williams described the current market volatility as moderate, indicating that the lack of certainty regarding the outcomes limits significant asset level changes [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6709, reflecting market caution ahead of key inflation data releases [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.6% as of December 2025, indicating a stable policy outlook with inflation expected to return to the target range of 2%-3% in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has seen increasing policy divergence, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025, and significant dissent among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Commodity Influence - Australia's economy is showing signs of weak recovery, with a GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, aided by stable commodity prices such as iron ore and coal [3] - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 5% against the USD in 2025, primarily due to Fed rate cuts and commodity price rebounds, despite domestic economic challenges [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The technical outlook for the AUD/USD pair indicates short-term fluctuations, with resistance at 0.6730 and support levels at 0.6680 and 0.6650 [4] - Key upcoming data releases include the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI, which are expected to influence Fed policy and, consequently, the AUD/USD exchange rate [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with market participants awaiting key economic indicators and Federal Reserve guidance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, indicating a cautious policy stance [2] - Despite a temporary rise in inflation in 2025, the RBA expects inflation to return to the target range of 2%-3% by mid-2025, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is increasing volatility in the AUD/USD pair, with expectations of a 2.5%-2.75% GDP growth in the US for 2026 and a gradual decline in inflation [2] Group 2: Economic and Commodity Price Support - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, driven by private consumption and investment, with a recovery in the real estate market [3] - As a commodity currency, the AUD is supported by rising prices of export goods, particularly coal, which is expected to increase by 5%-7% in 2026 [3] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some institutions believing that the RBA's hawkish tilt and rising commodity prices will support the AUD, while others caution that the Fed's policies may limit AUD gains [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The AUD/USD pair is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading within the 0.6700-0.6720 range, with no clear trend signals from the moving averages [4] - Key support levels are identified at 0.6700 and 0.6680, while resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6750, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - Upcoming critical data includes the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and CPI, which are expected to influence the strength of the USD and the AUD's performance [4]

凯投宏观新兴市场副首席经济学家Shilan Shah表示，由于通胀预计将在2027年回归印度央行4%的目标 水平，该行具备进一步小幅放宽政策的空间。去年12月总体CPI似乎已触底，但应会逐步回升至印度央 行4%的目标。随着食品通胀的基数效应转为不利，通胀可能进一步加速。预计印度央行将在2月再度降 息25个基点，并在全年保持宽松的政策立场。 ...

1月13日（周二）21:30，美国将公布12月消费者价格指数（CPI）。预测显示，美国通胀将小幅走高，主要因商品价格上涨和"技术性抬升"所致。 继11月意外走弱后，经济学家预计12月物价涨幅加快，反映关税压力仍在发酵，不过有望在2026年下半年缓解。同时，特朗普关税案裁决结果、鲍威尔遭司 法部调查及上周五的非农数据，也在共同塑造通胀前景和美联储政策路径，使周二公布的数据格外敏感。 市场预期：12月CPI将稍微升温 数据显示，市场预计美国12月CPI环比上涨0.3%、同比上涨2.7%；核心CPI预计环比涨0.3%、同比涨2.7%。分析师提醒，由于政府停摆导致10月数据缺失， 11月部分商品及租金价格被人为压低，使12月可能出现"技术性抬升"。 政府停摆导致的统计扭曲尚未消散。劳工统计局在11月和12月数据中使用假设填补租金与部分价格缺口，令住房成本、核心商品增速偏离常态。分析师普遍 认为，在正式数据修正前，每月CPI波动都要谨慎解读。 牛津经济研究院的伯纳德·亚罗斯（Bernard Yaros）预计，12月CPI环比可能达到0.4%，高于共识，并指出："要到年中才能真正看到趋势。" 关税仍在推高食品、服装及汽车 ...

威廉姆斯在新泽西州的演讲中抛出一个关键判断：当前3.5%-3.75%的利率区间已经让货币政策从"适度限制性"转向"中性"。这个词看似平淡，实则暗藏机 锋。中性利率意味着既不打压经济也不刺激过热，就像给高速行驶的汽车挂上最省油的档位。但问题在于，美联储内部对此分歧严重——三位官员在12月会 议上直接唱反调，两位要求按兵不动，另一位甚至主张激进降息50个基点。 "货币政策正走在钢丝上——既要遏制通胀，又要托住就业。威廉姆斯暗示明年可能继续降息，这场始于通胀、终于就业的平衡术表演，或许才刚刚拉开帷 幕。" 当纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯说出"货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备"时，华尔街的交易员们立刻嗅到了风向变化。这位美联储三把手的讲话从来不是闲 谈，而是政策走向的晴雨表——上周刚降息25个基点，现在又暗示明年可能继续宽松，这场"平衡木表演"背后藏着什么玄机？ 百度图片 降息不是终点，而是新起点 这种撕裂恰恰反映了美联储的两难：既要防止通胀反弹（目前仍高于2%目标），又得避免就业市场硬着陆。威廉姆斯给出的解决方案是"动态平衡"，通过 三次降息将政策调整到"既能遏制通胀，又能托住就业"的甜点区间。数据显示这套策略初见 ...