货币超发，简单讲，就是货币发行量超过了维持经济正常运行的需要，引发通胀、资产价格泡沫和货币贬值。 随着信用货币诞生，货币超发时代到来，财政赤字货币化、量化宽松、政府债务膨胀、现代货币理论等产生。 全球货币超发是普遍现象。从1980年到2024年，全球广义货币M2占GDP的比重上升了78个点到141%，大多数经济体M2年均增速高于名义GDP增速。 在金本位时代，货币难以超发。 超发货币最终将寻找出口。根据MV=PQ，要么流入实物资产，引发通胀，导致物价水平剧烈上涨；要么流向金融资产，引发资产价格泡沫，比如房地产 或资本市场。 通胀和资产价格泡沫本质上都是货币超发现象。所以，我提出"股市是货币的晴雨表"。 全球货币超发有多严重？可分为三种： 2008年以来美国推出量化宽松和无上限量化宽松，美联储资产负债表膨胀了10多倍，超发货币被金融市场吸收，股市和楼市泡沫严重。美股市值/GDP高 达190%，吸收大量流动性；过去34年间，美国标普500指数上涨46倍，纳斯达克指数上涨102倍。 同时，美元作为全球储备货币，超发的货币也稀释了其他国家的财富，相当于征收铸币税，全球买单。美债和美元一旦崩盘，后果不堪设想，相当于引爆 ...

美国财长贝森特周五表示，尽管有位关键参议员对提名持保留态度，参议院金融委员会已同意推进对总 统特朗普提名沃什接任美联储主席的确认听证会。 贝森特于周五在CNBC上提到，他周二会见了一群共和党参议员，并已就启动前美联储理事沃什 （Kevin Warsh）的听证会达成协议。 负责审查美联储提名人选的参议院银行业委员会成员蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）此前誓言，在司法部对美联 储总部25亿美元翻修工程的调查结束前，他将阻挠美联储的任何任命。 贝森特指出："蒂利斯希望推迟银行业委员会的任何表决，从而阻止提名进入参议院全体投票阶段。"但 他同时强调："我认为启动听证会至关重要，且我们已达成了相关协议。鲍威尔主席的任期将于5月中旬 届满，任何关心美联储诚信与独立性的人士都希望看到凯文·沃什能确保连续性。" 关于指控的疑问 本周早些时候，蒂利斯拒绝了一项建议，即由参议院银行业委员会对鲍威尔关于翻修项目的证词进行独 立调查，以取代司法部的调查。 贝森特本人拒绝就司法部的案件发表评论，但他提醒道，尽管美联储已收到传票，但"这并不意味着一 定会提起诉讼"。他还提到，参议院银行业委员会主席、共和党人斯科特（Tim Scott）曾 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，只要通胀重新回到向2%目标回落的轨道上， 美联储仍有进一步降息的空间，但就目前情况来看，这一前提尚未满足。 古尔斯比周五在接受采访时指出："我认为利率还有下调空间，甚至可能不止一次降息，但前提是通胀 必须明确回到通往2%的路径上。现在的问题在于，我们并没有走在这条路上，通胀似乎卡在3%左右， 这样的水平是不可接受的。" 他再次强调对服务价格通胀的担忧。当天早些时候公布的数据显示，1月服务类价格再度加速，成为通 胀黏性的重要来源。尽管整体物价同比上涨2.4%，涨幅低于市场预期，结构性压力仍未明显缓解。 在政策层面，美联储上月在议息会议上决定维持利率不变。此前，美联储在2025年末连续三次降息，以 应对当时劳动力市场走弱的迹象。古尔斯比与部分同僚近期均表示，当前美国就业市场已显现出更趋稳 定的特征，这意味着在支持进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀方面取得更实质性的进展。 本周稍早公布的一份报告也显示，1月美国招聘活动保持平稳，进一步强化了政策制定者对"就业端风险 已阶段性缓和"的判断。在此背景下，美联储内部对后续政策路径的共识正在逐步转向，是否再次降 息，关键仍取决于 ...

1、特朗普：将访问委内瑞拉但时间待定，已向中东地区增派一艘航母。 2、当地时间2月13日，据法院 文件显示，美国联邦政府对哈佛大学提起新诉讼，寻求获取其招生流程相关文件。 3、SpaceX考虑在 IPO中采用双层股权，以巩固马斯克控制权。 4、OpenAI已与两家获美国国防部选中的国防科技企业合 作，参与竞标，为美军开发语音控制的无人机蜂群指挥软件。 5、高盛推出了一个新的定制股票篮子， 旨在应对软件股日益加剧的动荡局面，押注那些被认为比其他公司更能抵御 人工智能颠覆的企业。 6、 华尔街正深陷AI带来的颠覆恐慌，推动美国股市本周大幅下挫。这场AI恐慌抛售波及了私人信贷、 房 地产经纪、 数据分析、法律服务和 保险等板块。 7、美国1月通胀表现相对温和，缓解了对通胀大幅上 升的担忧，提振了市场对美联储将降息的预期。 8、金价走高，交易员在数据显示通胀温和后加大对美 联储降息的押注，一些投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入 黄金。 9、与爱泼斯坦往来曝光后，迪拜环 球港务集团掌门人Bin Sulayem辞职。 ...

原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。铝价下跌，之前有报道称美国可能计划缩减部分钢铝关税。金价走高，交易员在 数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 原油：WTI年内首次两周连跌 交易员权衡伊朗局势及OPEC+增产前景 原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。 WTI本周下跌1%， 周五收盘基本持平。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国已向中东增派一艘航空母 舰，以防未能与伊朗达成核协议。"如果我们没有达成协议，我们就需要它，" 特朗普在白宫表示。他 还补充称，他认为谈判最终会取得成功。交易员一直密切关注华盛顿和德黑兰之间紧张局势是否升温， 因为这可能对来自中东的供应构成威胁。 早些时候，油价下跌，与会代表称，OPEC+成员认为有空间在4月恢复增产，因其认为有关供应过剩的 担忧被夸大。与会代表称，该组织尚未承诺采取任何行动方针，也尚未在3月1日会议前启动正式讨论。 原油期货市场连续第二周下跌，终结2026年初以来的连涨势 ...

Market Performance - US stock market closed mixed on February 14, with all three major indices recording weekly declines [2] - Notable stock movements included a strong revenue forecast from Applied Materials, leading to a significant stock price increase [2] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba down 2.05% and Tencent Music up 4.52% [2] Commodities and Economic Indicators - International oil prices saw a slight increase, influenced by a balance between easing inflation and OPEC+ production increase expectations [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17%, closing at $5050.50 per ounce [2] Corporate Developments - SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure for its IPO to strengthen Elon Musk's control [3] - OpenAI has been selected to participate in the US drone swarm challenge, providing voice control technology [3] - Meta plans to integrate facial recognition technology into its smart glasses [3] Financial Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs launched a "anti-AI replacement" themed stock basket amid concerns over AI's impact on software stocks [3] - Capital Group is betting on the European Central Bank raising interest rates by 2026, contrary to mainstream views [3] Legal and Regulatory News - The US Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against Harvard University for failing to submit documents related to a racial discrimination investigation in its admissions process [3]

Market - US stock market closed mixed on February 14, with all three major indices recording weekly declines. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 fell by 1.23%, 2.1%, and 1.39% respectively, as investors weighed the impact of artificial intelligence across various industries and noted that the core CPI for January hit a nearly five-year low [2][4]. - In the top 20 stocks by trading volume, Applied Materials surged by 8.08% after providing a strong revenue forecast, while Nvidia dropped by 2.23% due to procurement issues from Samsung and SK Hynix [3][46]. - Popular Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba down by 2.05% and Tencent Music up by 4.52%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.1% [4][47]. Company - SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO to maintain Elon Musk's control, similar to a previous strategy used for Tesla. The company, which recently acquired AI startup xAI, is expected to have a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion [19][43]. - OpenAI has been selected to participate in a US military challenge to develop voice-controlled drone swarm software, collaborating with two defense tech firms. This initiative is part of a $100 million challenge announced by the Department of Defense [20][43]. - Goldman Sachs launched a new stock basket aimed at companies that are less likely to be replaced by AI, betting on firms that require physical execution or are protected by regulatory barriers [22][43]. - Castle Investment's three flagship funds saw a 22% decline in net profits, attributed to high employee compensation costs amid a competitive talent market, despite a 4% increase in operational costs [23][43]. - The US has eased energy sanctions on Venezuela, allowing companies like Chevron and BP to operate in the oil and gas sector, which could lead to new investments [24][43]. - Meta plans to add facial recognition technology to its smart glasses, allowing users to identify people through an AI assistant, despite previous concerns over privacy and ethical implications [27][43].

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.10% at 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22,546.67 points [2] - Concerns over AI disruption led to market volatility, affecting various sectors including software, real estate, trucking, and financial services [5] - Notable declines included Charles Schwab down 10.8%, Morgan Stanley down 4.9%, and software company Workday down 11% [5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% year-over-year increase in January CPI, with a 0.2% month-over-month rise, both below market expectations [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations [2] Company News - SpaceX is reportedly considering a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO, allowing certain shareholders, including Elon Musk, to maintain control despite lower ownership stakes [6] - Anthropic appointed former General Motors executive Chris Liddell to its board as it prepares for a potential IPO in 2026, indicating openness to going public by the end of this year [9] - Following the merger with xAI, Musk's team is exploring financing options to reduce high-interest debt, which has accumulated to nearly $18 billion, in preparation for a potential IPO [10] - Moderna reported fourth-quarter revenue of $678 million, a 30% year-over-year decline, with a loss of $2.11 per share compared to a loss of $2.91 per share in the same period last year [11]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In January, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below market expectations of 0.3% and 2.5% respectively [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with investors reacting positively to the inflation report, which provided a slight dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a rebound, with Coinbase's stock price recovering after a significant drop, as some investors believed the worst was already priced in [1][2] Group 3: Coinbase Financial Performance - Coinbase reported a 20% decline in fourth-quarter revenue to $1.8 billion, exceeding expectations, primarily due to a decrease in token prices affecting trading activity [2] - The company recorded a net loss of $667 million when accounting for cryptocurrency holdings and investment impairments [2] - Coinbase's trading volume has shrunk, highlighting its sensitivity to digital asset price fluctuations and retail speculation [2] Group 4: Stock Performance - Coinbase's stock price rebounded by 15% to around $162 after a previous drop of approximately 8%, with a cumulative decline of about 50% over the past year [2] - The stock's trading volume was reported at 12.8 million shares, with a significant price fluctuation observed [3]

美联储古尔斯比：我们并未走上通胀回落至2%的轨道，通胀仍徘徊在3%左右。 来源：滚动播报 ...