1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

原油经历贸易战暴跌及修复行情后短期处于相对稳态,重点关注后期供需超预期的变化。上周美国汽油表需大 幅走强,亦有消息称尼日利亚丹格特炼厂渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解受到提振并带动海外炼 化利润出现修复,关注北美驾驶旺季临近油品需求超预期好转的持续性。供应端俄乌、伊核、巴以均处地缘缓 和大趋势中,5/50PEC+会议亦存在继续加快增产的可能,供给增量、地球风险缓和或成为边际变化氢点，继续 持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【與東簽紙號無裝 俄罗斯上周燃料油发运蛋有所回升,新加坡燃料油库存持续增加,FU裂解转为震荡,后续关注FU裂解到达高位 后强势能否持续;尼日利亚丹格特炼厂20万桶/天的渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解走强对主产品 低硫燃料油裂解构成提振。今日LU5月令约涨幅高达5.9%. 仓库仓单增加31000吨,关注LU近月强势能否持续。 【沥青】 五一节前市场备货需求增加,周度沥青出货量为44.2万吨,环比上升7.5万吨,同比上升高达17.3万吨。截至4 月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降7.1万吨至86.2万吨;样本社会阵环比下降1.3万吨至193.5万吨,厂库与社库均 去库。供需 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求承压 盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 28 日 逻辑：上周，贸易关税形势稍有缓和，但对商品价格的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing changes and challenges in the five new towns surrounding Shanghai, highlighting the discrepancies between rising inventory and declining transaction volumes in the real estate market [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The inventory of properties in the outer ring of Shanghai has been steadily increasing, with approximately 50% of listings located outside the outer ring [4][6]. - Since 2021, the transaction share in the five new towns has been declining, indicating a potential market saturation or lack of demand [4][12]. - The data shows that while the number of listings has increased, the sales volume has not kept pace, leading to a growing inventory problem [10][18]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - Each of the five new towns—Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, and Lingang—exhibits similar trends of high listings but low sales, particularly in the mid-range price segment of 2-5 million [6][10]. - Jiading has seen a significant increase in listings from 18 in 2021 to 56 in 2023, yet sales have remained relatively stable [9][10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate that while the outer ring's inventory is rising, the transaction volume is decreasing, particularly in the five new towns [12][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the five new towns are under pressure due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with a notable shift in market sentiment since 2022 [16][18]. - The population influx and industrial development in these areas are critical factors, but they do not directly correlate with the current real estate transaction trends [18][20]. - The future of these new towns may depend on addressing the current inventory and transaction imbalance, as well as enhancing their attractiveness to potential buyers [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.4.21-4.25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周上涨3.10%报1365元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1340元/吨，较前一周上涨3.88%。 供给方面，近期装置检修少，整体供应处于较高水平；上周生产利润依然分化，上周华 东重碱联碱法利润175.50元/吨，华北地区重碱氨碱法利润-62.50元/吨；预计下周开工90%， 产量76万吨，五月上旬，检修企业逐步增加，预期产量下降。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃 企业经营现状整体偏弱，下游刚需补库，整体消费量波动不大，但下游企业对原材料的储备 意向不高，基本随用随采。截止4月25日，全国纯碱厂内库存169.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal tar market has experienced a significant decline after reaching a peak in early March, with prices dropping by approximately 24% by April 22, leading to a cautious atmosphere in the industry [1] Demand Weakening - The demand for coal tar has shifted from strong to weak as the peak consumption season comes to an end, resulting in lower purchasing enthusiasm from downstream companies [2] - Inventory digestion in the tire industry has been slow, contributing to a bearish outlook on future coal tar prices, with companies adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy [2] - The decline in demand has also affected the prices of downstream products like carbon black and anthracene oil, leading to increased losses for carbon black manufacturers [2] Supply Expectations Increasing - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises in China was 73.51%, reflecting a 5% increase, with stable growth in coal tar production expected [3] - The profitability of coking plants has improved due to the first round of coking coal price increases, maintaining strong procurement demand from steel mills [3] - Companies are adopting a just-in-time sales strategy, with low-priced inventory clearance policies accelerating market adjustments [3] Downstream Inventory Accumulation - In the context of weak terminal demand, deep processing products like anthracene oil and washing oil are facing sales difficulties, leading to increased inventories [4] - The operating rate of coal tar deep processing increased to 46% as of April 17, but losses in the carbon black industry have led to a decrease in its operating rate to 61.79% [4] - The significant decline in the coal tar market has caused traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further negatively impacting the market as it enters the consumption off-season [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai housing market is experiencing unprecedented challenges, with both property prices and rents declining, leading to significant stress for landlords [2] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Different Types of Landlords - First-time homebuyers are engaging in a "cutting losses" competition, with increased listings and price reductions to attract buyers, yet many properties remain unsold for over a year [3] - Owners of newer properties are maintaining their prices, with some even attempting to raise them, but face stagnant sales as middle-class buyers hesitate and the market remains cautious [4] - Secondary landlords are experiencing a drastic drop in rental income, with rents returning to 2019 levels after peaking in 2022, leading to a significant reduction in their numbers [5] Group 2: Landlord Decisions in Response to Market Conditions - Landlords are making various choices, such as selling their homes to rent, opting for rental exchanges to reduce costs, or downsizing to alleviate financial pressure [6] - These decisions reflect differing views on the future of the housing market, with some believing in a lack of investment value while others see potential for recovery [6] Group 3: Macro Perspective on the Housing Market - The housing market is under pressure from high listing volumes and the impact of new housing developments, which threaten the demand for older properties [7] - The market is expected to become more segmented, with high-quality properties gaining interest while lower-quality ones may struggle to attract buyers [7] Group 4: Conclusion on Market Adaptation - The current housing market requires landlords to adapt their strategies based on market dynamics, policy changes, and buyer sentiment to survive and find new opportunities [9] - The era of uniformly rising property values is over, and landlords must focus on enhancing property quality and competitiveness to navigate future challenges [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the shipping rates are expected to return to normal levels in 2025, with a healthy supply-demand relationship supporting medium to long-term freight rates [4][5]. - The company disposed of four old MR vessels in 2024, generating asset disposal income of 267 million yuan, and currently has ten vessels on order [3][5]. - The management is exploring ways to use capital reserves to cover undistributed profits, aiming to create conditions for future dividends, which could enhance investor return expectations [5]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 64.75 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, up 23.4% [10]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.404 billion yuan, 1.562 billion yuan, and 1.732 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [6][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.44 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with expectations for potential recovery in profitability due to rising glass prices in the solar industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 18.683 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.20% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.079 billion yuan, a decline of 27.67% year-on-year, with a net profit of -289 million yuan, a decrease of 136.54% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.914 billion yuan, an increase of 200.65% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 15.50%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin at 2.88%, a decrease of 3.09 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 7.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but Q4 expenses decreased by 3.65 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to reduced sales and financial expenses [1][2]. Capacity and Market Strategy - The company has a total production capacity of 19,400 tons per day as of the end of 2024, with plans to launch projects in Anhui and Nantong based on market conditions [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with existing production capacity of 2,000 tons per day in Vietnam and plans to invest in a glass furnace in Indonesia to meet regional demand [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company anticipates improved performance in Q1 2025 due to a surge in solar component prices driven by policy changes, although the supply-demand relationship in the industry has not shown significant improvement [2]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.272 billion yuan, 1.882 billion yuan, and 2.257 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 26.41%, 47.88%, and 19.96% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.96 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.21, 23.13, and 19.29 based on the closing price of 18.58 yuan on March 28, 2025 [2].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 4 | | 三、需求概况 | | 6 | | 四、库存与估值 | | 8 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 9 | | 免责声明 10 | | | 能化板块研发报告 【市场展望】 近期沥青产业链累库速度放缓，2 季度库存水平若能维持低位，对后续 价格存在较强支撑。短期油价受宏观和地缘因素扰动，预计波动较大，中长 期油价仍面临下行压力。沥青单边价格波动弱于原油，在近端供需改善、下 半年供应端缺乏弹性的情况下，预计下行空间有限，以震荡思路对待， BU2506 运行区间预计在 3300-3450。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：区间震荡。 2.套利：沥青-原油价差走弱。 3.期权：如持有多单，可配合卖看涨策略。 风险提示：原油价格波动、宏观政策因素扰动。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 沥青 5 月报 202 ...