Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI at 49.4 in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July [4][7]. - Crude oil prices are fluctuating. Recent events such as Israel's attack on the capital of Qatar have led to renewed turmoil in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and the US, Europe, etc., are planning secondary sanctions on Russian oil [4][7]. - The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The demand for other packaging films has rebounded [4]. - The downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved [7]. - The LLDPE and PP futures main contracts are expected to fluctuate today [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7,180 (-20) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP - **Fundamentals**: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved. The current PP delivery spot price is 6,980 (0) [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000), bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906 [17].

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting pricing behaviors between new and second-hand homes in the real estate market, with new homes experiencing significant price reductions while second-hand homes remain relatively stable in price [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - New home prices have decreased by 8% to 15%, while second-hand home prices have only seen a slight decline of 2% to 5% despite a 31% drop in transaction volume for second-hand homes [1][2] - Developers face substantial financial pressure due to high costs associated with land, materials, labor, and interest on loans, leading them to reduce prices to stimulate sales [1][3][6] - In contrast, second-hand homeowners have lower holding costs and are less pressured to sell quickly, allowing them to maintain higher asking prices [2][5] Psychological Factors - The "anchoring effect" influences second-hand homeowners, who are reluctant to sell below their purchase price, often viewing their homes as emotional investments [2][9] - Many second-hand homeowners hold onto the belief that property values will rise again, leading to a reluctance to lower prices [7][12] Information Asymmetry - Developers have access to professional market research, enabling them to adjust strategies quickly, while most second-hand homeowners lack timely market information [3][12] - The speed of information dissemination favors new home price adjustments, while second-hand price changes are often less visible to potential buyers [12][13] Financial Considerations - Developers operate under high leverage and face significant costs if sales are delayed, while second-hand homeowners typically have lower financial burdens, allowing them to wait for better offers [5][6] - The holding costs for developers include various fees and interest, which accumulate rapidly, contrasting with the relatively low costs for second-hand homeowners [9][10] Market Segmentation - The real estate market is characterized by a buyer's market, where buyers have more options, making it crucial for second-hand homeowners to remain competitive in pricing [12] - The disparity in pricing strategies between new and second-hand homes is influenced by differing market conditions across various cities, with first-tier cities showing more resilience in second-hand home prices compared to lower-tier cities [10][12] Long-term Outlook - The sustainability of the current pricing gap between new and second-hand homes is questionable, as market forces will eventually seek equilibrium [12][13] - The article suggests that both developers and second-hand homeowners need to adjust their expectations to align with the evolving real estate landscape [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Shanghai Tin (Sn) [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: September 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - In the short term, with persistent supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the positive basis of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract is expected to be maintained. The spot price will support the futures price, and the Shanghai Tin futures price may seek upward opportunities in fluctuations [10] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: The opening price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract was 271,000 yuan/ton, with a high of 271,510 yuan/ton, a low of 268,640 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 269,620 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 47,484 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: There are 12 Shanghai Tin futures contracts. The total trading volume was 64,268 lots, and the total open interest was 57,674 lots. The open interest of the 2510 contract was 28,206 lots [5][6] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract was 271,000 yuan/ton. The quoted price of 1 tin on the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Network was in the range of 269,500 - 271,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 270,500 yuan/ton and a basis of 500 yuan/ton [7] 4.3 Influence Factors - **Industry News**: On the supply side, tin production in some major producing countries like Myanmar has declined due to geological and policy factors, and domestic tin mines are restricted by environmental policies and lower ore grades, intensifying supply shortage concerns. On the demand side, downstream electronics companies have more orders and strong demand for tin [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - **Market Review**: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - **Basic Logic**: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August 2025, hot-rolled coil futures rose significantly compared to the previous month and then slightly corrected this month. Overall, the spot price of the hot-rolled coil market reached a high and then declined. The supply and demand situation was relatively healthy. Although the inventory increased slightly, the pressure was not too great. The demand for hot-rolled coils in finished products was better than that of building materials, mainly because the terminal demand for plates in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships was relatively strong, which could drive up the demand for hot-rolled coils [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reached a high at the beginning of August and then declined, closing with a negative line. The main contract HC2601 dropped 51 points. After a short-term rapid increase, the price fell and finally closed at 3,346 yuan/ton, a 1.5% decline from the July price [3]. - **Variety Market**: There are 12 listed contracts for hot-rolled coil futures. Except for the 2509 contract, the price spreads between other contracts have narrowed. The far-month contracts had relatively large fluctuations in price changes, with a decline ranging from 28 to 64 points. The trading volume of the main contract HC2601 was 1,166,633 lots, a month-on-month increase of approximately 696,000 lots [6][7]. - **Related Market**: In August, the price of hot-rolled coils declined following the decline in raw material prices. There were signs of a marginal weakening of coking coal and coke, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in an overall decline in the black sector prices in August [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, in August, the closing price of the active contract hot-rolled coil HC2601 futures was 3,346 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm was 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis between Shanghai hot-rolled coil futures and spot was 34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 14 yuan/ton [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In August, the number of registered warehouse receipts for hot-rolled coils decreased significantly compared to July, from a maximum of 80,166 lots to 25,059 lots as of August 29. The decrease from the beginning to the end of the month was 32,112 lots. According to the Wande Warehouse Receipt Daily Report, among the 18 warehouses, the largest changes were concentrated in Jiangsu warehouses, while the other warehouses were relatively stable [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: WIND data shows that the overall supply of the domestic hot-rolled coil market remained at a relatively high level in August. From a weekly perspective, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils fluctuated around 3.2 million tons, without significant increases or decreases, indicating that steel mills maintained a relatively stable production rhythm for this product. In addition, the supply of other major plate categories, such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates, was also at a high level year-on-year, reflecting that the production side of the entire plate sector remained strong in August. However, affected by the seasonal off-peak demand in August, the actual downstream procurement demand cooled down, and the supply side also made small adjustments according to the demand changes, ultimately showing a slight month-on-month decline. The overall supply and demand relationship was relatively well-matched. In terms of inventory, the hot-rolled coil inventory increased slightly in August. Considering the changes in supply and demand during the same period, although the supply remained high but then declined slightly, and the demand was in the off-peak season but did not shrink significantly, the gap between the two was relatively limited, and no obvious supply-demand imbalance occurred. The slight increase in inventory was more of a normal fluctuation due to seasonal factors and did not cause significant pressure on the market [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a similar trend to related industrial varieties such as rebar. From the disk, the HC2601 contract was running below the 10-day moving average and close to the lower track of the BOLL, indicating a weak state [13][14]. 3.4 Market Outlook In August 2025, the hot-rolled coil plate market showed the fundamental characteristics of "high supply, weakening demand resilience, and inventory accumulation", with prices fluctuating downward and both the futures and spot markets weakening synchronously. The short-term supply-demand contradiction and cost support are in intensified competition. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in September. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak demand season and the implementation of policy production restrictions [16].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads, despite a downward trend in refined oil demand and the possibility of OPEC increasing production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery activity are currently supporting the oil market [1] - There is a prevailing expectation of weaker supply and demand in the medium term, which is putting pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC Influence - OPEC may consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - The market sentiment indicates that low inventories in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting current oil prices [1]