美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strongly bullish", "bullish with fluctuations", "sideways", "bearish with fluctuations", and "strongly bearish" [4][277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel - Iran conflict, have intensified, leading to increased volatility in oil prices and a bullish trend in the energy and chemical sector. Chemical products are experiencing a catch - up rally due to the persistent strength of crude oil prices [2][3]. - The supply of some chemical products such as methanol and urea has been affected by the Israel - Iran conflict. The polyester chain's raw material PTA has seen a rapid increase in basis, and the market is expected to be dominated by long - short configurations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to greater price volatility. API data shows a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but the gasoline drawdown was relatively small. The IEA monthly report has lowered the annual demand growth forecast and raised the supply forecast. Short - term, Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate price fluctuations [8]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is oscillating, and asphalt futures prices are also oscillating. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, which will put pressure on the asphalt crack spread. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating at a high level. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock has decreased significantly. Although there is some support from Egypt's procurement, the overall supply - demand situation is bearish [10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13][14]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is oscillating with a bullish bias. Iranian methanol supply disruptions can significantly affect China's methanol prices [25]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a bullish trend in the futures market. Although the current supply is high, the start of domestic and foreign demand is imminent [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Future arrivals are still limited, and EG will continue to be in a bullish pattern [19]. - **PX**: The supply - demand support has weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to crude oil trends. The supply capacity of Asian PX is steadily increasing, and the support effect of the domestic PX supply - demand fundamentals is slowing down [16]. - **PTA**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it will follow crude oil in the short term. The overall performance of PTA is still good, but the polyester production cut pressure may form a negative feedback [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: It will continue to oscillate bullishly following its raw materials. The PF fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [20][21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The industry is stable, and the downside space of bottle chip processing fees is limited. Bottle chip enterprises have announced maintenance plans, indicating that the current processing fees cannot be sustained [21][23]. - **PP**: With the uncertainty of Middle East disturbances, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [30]. - **Plastic**: It will fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The current fundamentals are still under pressure, and the downstream demand is cautious [29]. - **Styrene**: As crude oil prices have declined, styrene is in a weak consolidation phase. The future rebound drive is not sustainable, and both supply and demand are bearish [17]. - **PVC**: The dynamic cost has increased, and PVC is oscillating. Although the supply - demand outlook is bearish, the cost center has shifted upward [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, it is in a bearish trend. In June, the supply and demand were both weak, and in July, supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of SC is 5, with a change of - 6 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 156, with a change of 23, and the number of warehouse receipts is 94,510 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 308, with a change of 3 [36].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 以伊对攻力度加大，周二两市主要指数小幅调整。两市成交额 1.20 万亿元。中证 | | | | 1000 | 指数收 6141 点，跌 6 点，跌幅-0.10%；中证 500 指数收 5750 点，跌 16 点， | | | | | 跌幅-0.29%；沪深 300 指数收 3870 点，跌 3 点，跌幅-0.09%；上证 50 指数收 2683 | | | | | 点，跌 1 点，跌幅-0.04%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是油气资源 ETF、能源 ETF、 | | | | | 金融科技 ETF、物流 ETF、石油天然气 ETF，跌幅居前的 ...

以伊冲突爆发对大宗商品的影响分析 20250617 摘要 中东紧张局势可能导致伊朗石油供应中断，最大损失或达每日 160 万桶， 短期内扭转全球石油供需平衡，推动油价上涨。OPEC 闲置产能和美国 页岩油增产有望部分弥补供应缺口，但增产幅度受油价水平影响。 霍尔木兹海峡是重要的石油运输通道，日均石油流量达 2050 万桶，占 全球海运石油贸易的 27%。一旦海峡被封锁，将导致严重的供应延迟和 运输成本上升，对亚洲主要石油进口国产生重大影响。备选管道运输能 力有限，难以完全替代海运。 当前伊朗冲突对石油供应影响有限，全球石油供需平衡仍维持累库预期。 若无实质性供应损失，布伦特原油价格可能回落至 60-70 美元/桶区间； 若伊朗石油供应大幅下跌，油价可能升至 80 美元/桶；霍尔木兹海峡封 锁则可能挑战 100 美元/桶。 地缘政治风险通过避险情绪短期推高金价，但持续性取决于供应链受阻 导致的滞胀风险。美联储降息周期是黄金价格上涨的主要驱动力，降息 预期升温通常会推动黄金价格上涨。全球黄金 ETF 基金在美联储降息周 期加速配置黄金。 Q&A 伊朗局势对全球原油市场的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 首先，霍尔木兹 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the region, raising concerns about further conflict escalation [3] - The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, with the index rising 0.7% to 98.83, while U.S. retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in May, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties [4] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point cut [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are in a state of indecision after a significant drop, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a search for balance between buyers and sellers [6] - The four-hour chart shows gold prices in an ascending wedge pattern, with key support at 3470/3463; a break below this level could signal a potential downward trend [9] - Resistance levels to watch include 3396 and 3420, with a breakthrough at 3396 potentially providing bullish momentum for gold prices [9]

WTI原油期货涨超4.6%，据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普针对以色列与伊朗局势考虑一系列选项，其中包括美国亲自下场打击伊朗。 ...

中东火药桶彻底引爆，以伊冲突正火速蔓延至大宗商品、能源市场。 双方"火拼"互袭的第五天，局势还在不断恶化，全球能源供应链的神经也愈发紧绷。 今天，被称之为"世界油阀"的霍尔木兹海峡硝烟四起，国际油价应声飙高。 截至发稿，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货均涨逾2%。 伊以陷"复仇循环" 眼下，伊以打的不可开交。 当地时间6月17日，以色列国防部长称，以军今晚计划袭击德黑兰的"重要目标"，并将继续针对伊朗军 事领导人、核计划和导弹系统。 据说，伊朗都已经准备好在领导人遇刺的情况下管理敏感部门的计划。 目前美国已大举增兵中东，伊以关闭领空，多国纷纷撤侨。 据悉，美"双航母"正前往中东，美国空军"规模空前"的跨大西洋部署。 稍早前，美国白宫已要求驻伊使馆的非必要工作人员尽快撤离，并呼吁所有在中东的美国公民立即离 开。 俄罗斯于6月15日宣布暂停驻德黑兰大使馆领事服务，并通过陆路撤离在伊公民。 我国外交部6月17日宣布，已启动领事保护应急机制，全力组织在伊朗和以色列的中国公民撤离。 同日，韩国也对伊朗全境发布最高级别旅游警报，敦促公民立即撤离。 此前以军已摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并声称击毙伊朗最高军事指挥官，不 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月17日16时57分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.46%，沪银主力收涨0.45%。①核心逻辑，短期以色列和伊朗冲突升级预期缓和，经济衰退 地缘异动风险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中东地缘异动，伊朗敦促特朗普迫使 以色列停战。中美元首通话，磋商进展顺利，达成贸易框架。③货币属性方面，由于中美贸易紧张局势有所缓解，美国6月消费者 信心出现六个月来首次好转，但家庭仍对经济发展轨迹感到担忧。美国最新通胀数据仍保持温和。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | - ...