Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and new energy, based on their respective market conditions and trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - A-share market opened lower, oscillated, and showed differentiation, with finance and consumption sectors performing better. Index futures have stable lower support but face upward breakthrough pressure, and are affected by tariff negotiations and news in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures showed differentiated trends, with ultra-long bonds performing strongly. Attention should be paid to tax periods and cross - half - year liquidity. For the 10 - year bond, 1.6% is the downward resistance level. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, and in the cash - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TS2509 [2]. Precious Metal - Gold is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, with a possibility of hitting the $3400 mark. A double - selling strategy for gold options can be used to earn time value. Attention should be paid to the flow of speculative funds in silver, and long positions should temporarily exit [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. It is considered to buy on dips or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, unilateral operation should wait and see, and pay attention to the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. Iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Energy and Chemical - For crude oil, consider buying on dips for the main contract or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For various chemical products, different operation suggestions are given according to their supply - demand and price trends, such as short - selling on rallies for some products and range - bound operation for others [2][3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural product futures have different trends. For example, sugar is recommended to be short - sold on rallies, and palm oil may test the 7800 support level [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures increased in positions and declined, and short positions should be held. Lithium carbonate futures are under pressure and are expected to run in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term uncertainties for gold are numerous, and it is in a high - level oscillation. The strategic allocation value of gold is high in the long - term. Silver is also in a high - level oscillation, and its market sentiment changes rapidly. Copper is in a high - level consolidation in the short - term, and it is still favored in the long - term. Zinc's rebound is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weakening. Lead shows a short - term rebound. Tin's rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 and weak smelting. Aluminum has a short - term rebound. Nickel is under pressure to decline. Industrial silicon's short - term disk rebounds from oversold, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long - term. Carbonate lithium is bearish [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: SHFE gold was at 785.16, up 0.98% from the previous value, and COMEX gold was at 3406, up 0.90%. SHFE silver was at 8819, down 0.93%, and COMEX silver was at 36, up 0.14%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio was 89.03, up 1.93%. The London gold spot price was $3295, down 1.04%, and the London silver spot price was $33.124, down 8.50% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and inflation data are weak. Tariff uncertainties are large, and the UK economy has shrunk. In the short - term, geopolitical variables are significant, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 770 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, its speculative sentiment has temporarily returned. If the price - ratio returns to normal, it will follow the characteristics of gold and base metals. Control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78580 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The LME copper price was $9702/ton, up 0.56%, and the COMEX copper price was $484.3/pound, up 0.76%. The spot price of electrolytic copper was 79200 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. The domestic electrolytic copper output in May increased, but it is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze on LME copper. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait for copper to fully retrace and stabilize. Observe the support at the 78,000 - yuan level. For industrial hedging, sell at high prices. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [7]. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22030 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The LME zinc price was $2644/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price of No. 0 zinc was 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the开工 rate of zinc - related enterprises is lower than in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term. In the long - term, short at high prices as supply increases and demand weakens. The range for SHFE zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the LME aluminum was $2522.5/ton, up 0.24%. The SHFE aluminum main contract was 20395 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The alumina main contract was 2895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 20650 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eases, production costs decline, and inventories decrease. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is stable, and the domestic production capacity is recovering. There is a short - term supply surplus [13]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900, 20500]. Alumina operates in a low - level range [13]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel was under pressure [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increases, and the cost support weakens. Domestic refined nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is rising due to the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [118000, 123000] [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 decreased in position and dropped more than 1% throughout the day [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals change little. The supply pressure is large, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the rebound's sustainability is questionable [16]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Hold short positions in the range of [60000, 61500] [16].

| 112 | > 国技期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月12日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价大涨，SC07合约日内上涨3.01%。中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架，目前来看 本轮磋商结果聚焦在双方取消5月以来的部分出口管制,而将于8月中旬豁免到期的24%对等关税仍有待谈判。特朗普 表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱。凌晨美国方面通知美国在中东人员部分撤离,中东地缘风险急剧升温。原油对极 端供应冲击情景迅速定价。上周EIA原油库存超预期下降364. 4万桶，亦对原油偏强走势构成支撑。原油短期 ...

隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%,核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再次呼吁降息,美元回 落,金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金价涨幅。各方关税谈判将 继续主导市场,俄乌以及中东等地缘局势持续紧张,金价震荡中维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。今晚关注美国PPI和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美国5月CPI环比上涨0.1%,不及预期的0.2%,4月增幅为0.2%;CPI同比上涨2.4%,符合预期,4月为 2.3%; 扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心CPI环比0.1%，不及预期的0.2%,较4月的0.2%有所放缓；同比2.8%, 不及预期的2.9%，4月为2.8%，保持在2021年3月以来的最低水平。 ★中东局势—1特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。②伊朗防长:如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突,伊朗将 打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东,缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模。④据悉伊美 周末举行第六轮核谈判举行的可能性越来越小。 ★关税—()欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特:只要在谈判中表现出"城 意",特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to remain in high-level oscillations. Gold has high strategic allocation value in the long term, and silver's speculative sentiment and financial attributes have been ignited. Copper is advised to take profit on long positions and look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels, with a long - term optimistic outlook. Zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face pressure on rebounds, and zinc and nickel are recommended for short - selling opportunities at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short at high levels as the fundamental situation is hard to improve [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation due to factors such as low US inflation, geopolitical escalation, and increased expectations of US interest rate cuts this year. Silver has seen a return of the gold - silver ratio, and its price has been supported by speculative sentiment and capital flow [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff negotiations between China and the US have reached a framework agreement. The Chinese central bank continues to buy gold, and there are uncertainties in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. US inflation is low, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, focus on the 765 support level and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can be continued, but control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and oscillated downward [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With US inflation lower than expected, long positions in copper should take profit. Speculators should temporarily wait and see, and industrial players should look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] USD/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Zinc rose overnight but then fell back, oscillating in a narrow range around the integer level [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic zinc ore processing fees increased in June. Refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, wait and see. In the long term, take short - selling opportunities at high levels. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] USD/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short term, while alumina prices were under pressure [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased in May. Aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while aluminum rod inventories increased. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises declined, and the terminal is entering the off - season. Overseas bauxite supply is stable, and domestic alumina production capacity has increased, with a slight inventory build - up [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on short - term rebounds in Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipment of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. Domestic refined nickel production decreased slightly, but inventories are still high. Stainless steel consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and inventory pressure has reappeared [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 continued to reduce positions and rebound, rising more than 1% [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Rumors of Tianqi taking delivery from the futures market have driven up prices, but the fundamentals have not changed much. Supply pressure remains high, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. The inventory of new energy vehicles has reached a three - year high, and only the energy storage sector provides some support. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered rapidly, and the expectation of inventory build - up is increasing [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short at high levels in the range of [60500 - 62500] [14].

Domestic News - The China Automobile Association reported that from January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total sales [3] International News - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Trump expressing reduced confidence in reaching an Iran nuclear deal, and Iran's defense minister stating that if negotiations fail, Iran will target U.S. military bases in the region [2] - International crude oil prices surged by 5%, and gold prices increased by over $20 amid the rising tensions [2] - The U.S. Customs total tax revenue reached a record $23 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of nearly four times [2]

Key Points - The article emphasizes a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on defensive sectors such as banks due to ongoing tariff negotiations and rising economic downward pressure [2][4] - It suggests that while small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, the overall market volatility is increasing, indicating potential risks if a turning point occurs [2][4] - The report highlights a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][7] Market Overview - The market structure shows a stable concentration in the top 100 stocks, while the transaction share of the top five industries has slightly decreased [6][7] - Market activity has decreased, with a notable drop in the turnover rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year [6][7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the strength of trends in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors has significantly increased, while energy and black metal sectors continue their trend [18][20] - The basis differential momentum for black and precious metals has rapidly increased, whereas it has decreased for energy and non-ferrous sectors [18][20] Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the latter at historically low levels [23] - The skewness of the CSI 1000 put options has decreased, indicating a reduction in market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [23] Convertible Bond Market Overview - The convertible bond market remains stable in terms of valuation, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan and the pure debt premium rate showing steady trends [26] - The market turnover has improved, surpassing historical median levels, while credit spreads remain consistent with previous values [26]

马来西亚贸易部长将于6月18日前往华盛顿进行美国关税谈判。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of energy and chemical products shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, caustic soda to run weakly with oscillations, styrene to be sold short at high prices, rubber to oscillate in the short - term, urea to run weakly, methanol to have limited substantial positive support, polyolefin to oscillate in the short - term, and soda ash to maintain a bearish recommendation for the 01 contract [2][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] Summary by Product PVC - On June 10, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4810 yuan/ton (-6). The long - term demand is low due to the real - estate situation, and exports are restricted. Supply pressure is high in the third quarter. The current inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on the 4850 line pressure [2] Caustic Soda - On June 10, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2324 yuan/ton (+16). Supply has a neutral inventory with high - level operation and new installations expected. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. It is expected to run weakly with oscillations, and the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, with attention on the 2400 line pressure [3] Styrene - On June 10, the main styrene contract was 7346 (+135) yuan/ton. Crude oil has short - term rebounds but mid - term supply - demand relaxation expectations. Pure benzene has high imports and inventory accumulation. Styrene has short - term port de - stocking but mid - term accumulation expectations. It is recommended to sell short at high prices, with attention on the 7400 line pressure [4][5] Rubber - On June 10, rubber prices rebounded and then declined. New rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rates have declined. The market price has increased slightly [6] Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.24% to close at 1678 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level operation, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is limited, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run weakly, with the 09 contract reference range of 1650 - 1850 [7][8] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.26% to close at 2276 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level capacity utilization rate, cost is under pressure, and demand from the olefin industry is okay but traditional demand is weak. Inventory is increasing. The 09 contract reference range is 2180 - 2300 [9] Polyolefin - On June 10, the L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton. Supply has capacity expansion pressure, demand is in the traditional off - season, and PP inventory is accumulating while PE has slight de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 reference range of 6950 - 7100 and the PP2509 reference range of 6850 - 7200 [10][11] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash is weak, prices are falling, and the basis discount has narrowed. Supply is increasing, downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. A bearish recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]