日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，日本将坚持寻求研议所有美国关税的立场，这可能是本月两国领 导人峰会前的最后一次部长级谈判。"日本将继续强烈敦促美国重新考虑其一系列关税措施，"赤泽亮正 周四在东京启程前往华盛顿时表示。他补充道，他不确定将与哪些美国官员展开第五轮贸易谈判。赤泽 亮正定于周日返回日本，大约在G-7加拿大会议召开的一周前。日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普预计 将在会议间隙会晤，外界对两国届时宣布贸易协议的预期升温。 ...

Group 1 - The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% may lead to job losses and sales declines in Canada, which is the largest exporter of these metals to the U.S. [3] - The Canadian private sector union Unifor indicated that the tariff hike will have a rapid impact on the steel industry, while the Aluminum Association of Canada suggested that members may shift their exports to Europe due to the high tariffs [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada is prepared to retaliate if negotiations with the U.S. to remove the tariffs fail, emphasizing ongoing intensive talks [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have recently faced downward pressure after reaching a multi-month high of $34.79, with current trading around $34.49, indicating a slight decline [4] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $34.87 and $35.40, while support levels are at $33.70 and $32.80, the latter aligning with the 50-day moving average [4] - The short-term outlook for silver appears neutral, with potential downward risks if favorable data strengthens the U.S. dollar and tightens the Federal Reserve's stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the disk facing pressure at the 4800 level. The market is influenced by weak costs, demand, high production, and inventory, but may be supported by unexpected domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectations. In June, the spot supply - demand may be locally tight, but in the medium - term, it will likely oscillate weakly, with the 09 contract being mainly short - sold at high levels, and facing pressure at the 2400 level [3]. - The styrene market has a relatively high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the main contract facing pressure at the 7200 level [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to macro - level news and sentiment [6]. - The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It may rebound to a limited extent due to the recent coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1730 - 1850 [7]. - The methanol market has a relatively abundant supply. It may rebound to some extent following the coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. The L2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 6950 - 7350, and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6850 - 7200 [9][10]. - The soda ash market has a short - term upward movement in the futures price due to market sentiment, but the spot is weak, and the upward space of the disk is limited. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11]. Summary by Product PVC - On June 4, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4834 yuan/ton (+89), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions, and the supply pressure is large in the third quarter. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 4, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2367 yuan/ton (-4). The supply has good profits and high - level operation, with some new device production expected. There will be concentrated maintenance in June, and the demand has mixed signals, with the 09 contract facing pressure at 2400 [3]. Styrene - On June 4, the styrene main contract was at 7090 (+72) yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall valuation is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. Rubber - On June 4, the three rubber disks rebounded. The raw material price decline is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate has declined [6]. Urea - The urea 09 contract closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with the spot price in Henan rising. The supply is high, the agricultural demand has some potential, and the industrial demand is mixed. The inventory has increased, and it may rebound within a limited range [7]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 2.39% to close at 2270 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, the cost - profit situation is stable, the demand from the olefin industry is improving, while the traditional demand is weak. The inventory has increased, and it may follow the coal price to rebound [8]. Polyolefin - On June 4, the L main contract rose 1.24% to 7049 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract rose 0.93% to 6948 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will increase in the future, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a certain downward trend. The market is expected to oscillate widely [9][10]. Soda Ash - The futures price of soda ash rose to narrow the basis due to market sentiment, while the spot market is weak. The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11].

加拿大总理卡尼称，如果与美国的关税谈判未能取得成功，准备采取报复措施。 ...

美股全线上涨。 截至发稿，道指涨0.11%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳斯达克指数涨0.17%。 | L | | w 美股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 Ａ股 | 美股 | 全球 | 商品 | 外汇 lil | | 美股市场概况 | | 财经日历 | | 海外机构持合 ot | | 美股指数 它 | | | | | | 道琼斯 | | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | 42567.52 | | 19432.60 | | 5981.21 | | +47.88 +0.11% | | +33.64 +0.17% | | +10.84 +0.18% | 美国商务部长卢特尼克宣称，特朗普将于6月底之前推出飞机关税。波音公司股价呈现出V形走势，跌幅收窄至0.1%。 两年期美债收益率跌约7.0个基点，刷新日低至3.88%下方。 ICE美元指数跌0.3%，刷新日低至98.932点；彭博美元指数跌超0.4%，刷新日低至1208.60点。 现货黄金短线上涨10美元，重返3365美元/盎司上方，日内涨幅重新扩大至0.36%。 欧股普遍上涨，英国富时100指数涨0.34% ...

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets experienced a collective rise, with the German DAX index reaching a historical high, driven by positive developments in US-EU tariff negotiations and economic stimulus measures in Germany [1][4]. Group 1: European Stock Market Performance - The German DAX index rose over 1% during trading, reaching a peak of 24,346 points, marking a new historical record [4]. - The French CAC40 index, Swedish OMX all-share index, and OMX Copenhagen 20 index also saw gains exceeding 1% [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the DAX index has accumulated an increase of nearly 22% [4]. Group 2: US-EU Tariff Negotiations - EU Trade Commissioner Sevcovic reported constructive talks with US Trade Representative Lighthizer, indicating progress in tariff negotiations [2][3]. - Following the announcement of these talks, European stock markets experienced a surge [4]. - The US government is pressuring trading partners to submit optimal proposals for trade negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs and quotas on US agricultural products [5]. Group 3: German Economic Measures - German Chancellor Merz is set to visit the US, focusing on trade tensions and other key issues [6]. - The German government approved a corporate tax incentive plan worth approximately €46 billion (about $52 billion) to stimulate the economy [7]. - The plan includes a tax deduction of up to 30% for businesses purchasing movable assets from June 2025 to January 2028, pending parliamentary approval [7]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Eurozone inflation for May was reported at 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April, which may increase the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [8]. - The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food, stood at 2.3% [8]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB may implement additional rate cuts in response to the unexpected slowdown in inflation [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The number of job openings in the US in April was higher than expected and the previous value. This week, there is a dense release of US economic data, with a focus on the non - farm payrolls report on Friday. Additionally, attention should be paid to the US Trade Court's ban on Trump's tariffs and the progress of various negotiations. The international gold price should maintain the idea of buying on dips, relying on the strong support at $3000. Today, focus on the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for May [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariffs - The Trump administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. - Sources said that the US put forward a "tough" list of requirements to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. - Sources indicated that the EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". - The Brazilian President stated that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will appeal to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. - The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, with nearly half of the issues having reached a consensus [2] Fed - Logan believes that the focus should be on achieving the 2% inflation target rather than trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. - Bostic still thinks there may be one interest rate cut this year [2] Economic Forecast - The OECD lowered its GDP growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%) [2]

欧盟贸易专员称欧美关税谈判在朝正确方向推进 金十数据6月4日讯，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了 建设性会谈。关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。当地 时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表遗 憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快谈 判进程。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity futures, including indices, bonds, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, price movements, and potential trading opportunities for each category [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Indices**: The indices have stable support below but face significant upward pressure. Affected by ongoing tariff negotiations, they are volatile in the short - term and are expected to remain neutrally oscillating after the volatility subsides. It is recommended to wait and see, with a suggested long - position attempt on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year rate between 1.8% - 1.95%. Short - term treasury bond futures may show a range - bound oscillation. A range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market has returned to rationality, and precious metals have declined. Gold is expected to oscillate, and a double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is advised to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: With a high opening in July's quotes and the market bottoming out and rebounding, it is advisable to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Industrial steel demand and inventory are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider a long - steel and short - raw - material arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is falling from a high level. It is expected to oscillate in the 700 - 745 range [3]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may be further reduced, and coking coal prices are weak. It is recommended to stop the loss on short positions for J2509 and JM2509 [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: With the resumption of production in large factories in Ningxia and the recovery of shipments from Groote Eylandt, it is advisable to short at high prices, with resistance levels at around 5500 for silicon iron and 5900 for manganese silicon [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, and Tin**: Copper has weak driving forces; zinc prices are supported by lower - than - expected supply; nickel is in narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel is weakly operating; and tin prices are continuing to decline. Specific price ranges and trading suggestions are provided for each [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Short - term upward support is provided by North American supply disruptions, but the long - term depends on OPEC production policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider an options straddle strategy [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Ethanol, Styrene, Caustic Soda, PVC, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, and Methanol**: Different products have different market conditions, such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and price trends. Specific trading strategies are recommended for each [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal, Live Hogs, Corn, Oils, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Apples, Jujubes, Peanuts, and Soda Ash**: Market conditions vary among different agricultural products. For example, live hog prices are under pressure after the festival, and sugar supply is expected to be loose overseas. Appropriate trading strategies are provided for each [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass, Rubber, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, and Lithium Carbonate**: Glass market sentiment is weakening; rubber prices are declining; industrial silicon is weakly oscillating; polysilicon futures have fallen significantly; and lithium carbonate is weakly stable. Specific trading suggestions are given for each [3].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 6 月 3 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4745 元/吨（-19），常州市场价 4670 元 /吨（-10），主力基差-75 元/吨(+9），广州市场价 4740 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨（-10）。基本面，长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端三季度有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，供应压力较大；需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局。最近库 存去化尚可，略低于去年同期，季节性去库过程中，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。宏观面，经过 4 月初贸易战突发的冲击影响逐步淡化，近期 关税缓和超过预期，但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存，继续关注进一 步的演化。国内一季度数据表现偏好，二季度转出口或有一定支撑，国 内大规模刺激政策短期或难出台。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政 策力度。总的来看，弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制，绝对 价格低位。PVC 估值偏低，驱动偏弱，盘面预计偏震荡。若国内刺激政 策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化， ...