2025.05. 30 根据央视新闻，美国联邦上诉法院当日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时中止一项下级法院禁止执行多个 关税行政令的裁决。 此前一天，位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院认定现政府根据《国际紧急经济权力法》推出的一揽子加征 关税措施违法，并下令撤销相关行政令。 虽然该裁决引发广泛关注，但市场整体反应温和。投资咨询机构50 Park Investments首席执行官 亚当·萨尔罕（Adam Sarhan）表示，"不管怎么说，特朗普已暂停大部分关税，这些法院裁决只是 消息而已。只要市场不下跌，就无关紧要。" 本文字数：1144，阅读时长大约2分钟 英伟达股价上涨3.2%。该公司在前一天公布的季度财报显示，销售业绩超出市场预期。截至目前， 英伟达年内涨幅为3.6%，是科技七巨头中最后公布财报的企业。 赛富时下跌3.3%，尽管公司上调了全年营收和调整后利润预期。 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间5月29日（周四），美股主要股指收高，受英伟达业绩提振带动，科技股普遍上涨。与此同 时，市场关注美国法院就关税政策做出的裁决，以及相关宏观经济数据的影响。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨117.03点，报42215.73 ...

Core Insights - Bombardier Recreational Products (BRP) reported strong first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, leading to a nearly 13% increase in stock price, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 0.3% gain [1] Financial Performance - BRP's revenue for the quarter was just under CA$1.85 billion ($1.34 billion), representing a year-over-year decline of almost 8%, but exceeding analyst expectations of CA$1.23 billion ($893 million) [2] - Non-IFRS net income fell to just under CA$35 million ($25 million) from nearly CA$121 million ($88 million) in the previous year, translating to CA$0.47 ($0.34) per share, which was better than the expected CA$0.29 ($0.21) per share [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company attributed its better-than-expected performance to strong end-of-season sales in the snowmobile segment, despite facing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Management remains cautious about providing future guidance due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, although the CEO noted that the company's strong product portfolio and leaner inventory levels position it favorably for a potential rebound [6]

更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 格林大华期货中国宏观经济月报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年05月29日 中国宏观经济月报 1-4月全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，1-3月份为4.2% 来源:wind,格林大华 1-4月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，市场预期4.26%，1-3月份为4.2%。分类来看，1-4月广义基建 投资（含电力）同比增长10.85%，市场预期增长10.0%，1-3月增长11.5%。1-4月制造业投资同比增长8.8%， 市场预期增长9.1%，1-3月增长9.1%。1-4月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，1-3月下降9.9%。高 技术产业中，信息服务业，计算机及办公设备制造业，航空、航天器及设备制造业，专业技术服务业投资 同比分别增长40.6%、28.9%、23.9%、17.6%。1-4月份设备购置投资增长18.2%，增长贡献率达到64.5%。 2 1-4月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.8% 来源:wi ...

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index has shown a 0.55% increase, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Huada Jiutian (up 14.99%) and Xinyi Sheng (up 5.86%) [1] - The CSI 300 ETF has seen a trading volume of 1.41 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.258 billion yuan over the past year, ranking in the top three among comparable funds [1] - The latest scale of the CSI 300 ETF has reached 167.092 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [1] Group 2 - The CSI 300 Index is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.29, which is lower than 83.01% of the time since the index's inception, highlighting its attractive valuation [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index account for 22.85% of the index, with major companies including Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Times [1] Group 3 - Recent market conditions have led to a "triple kill" in U.S. assets, increasing risk aversion globally, while the A-share market is experiencing a period of adjustment [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the resilience of the A-share market is noted, supported by positive capital market policies and macroeconomic recovery in China [2] - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities discussed the improved ecosystem of China's capital market and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2] Group 4 - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund, allowing for low-cost entry into the market [3]

5月27日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，今年1~4月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿 元，同比增长1.4%。 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，自去年下半年以来，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增速呈现出明显 的V型走势。今年1~4月1.4%的同比增速，创下近8个月以来累计同比增速的新高。其中，4月规模以上 工业企业利润同比增长3.0%。 对于前4月规模以上工业企业营收创历史同期最高纪录，盘和林表示，这表明中国制造业表现出较强劲 的复苏势头，主要受益于两方面：海外出口方面，中国制造通过转型升级提高了出口韧性，顶住了加征 关税的压力，中国商品实现了出口高增长，从而为制造业带来营收增长；国内需求方面，中国通过"两 新""两重"（国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设）等政策提振内需，使得工业企业的国内市场 表现得以有效改善。 利润同比增速呈V型走势 两方面共同作用下，中国工业企业有望进入新一轮繁荣周期，随着中国制造业的韧性不断增强，预期该 周期未来还会延续。 自去年下半年以来，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增速呈现出一个明显的V型走势；今年以来，反弹 趋势更为明显。1~3月，规模以上工业企业利润同比增速达到 ...

和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融 资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 4月企业融资环境指数为49.1，高于前值的48.0；消费品价格前瞻指数为45.2，高于前值的42.8；企业招 工前瞻指数为50.5，高于前值的48.6。 4月中间品价格前瞻指数为33.6，低于前值的39.3；企业利润前瞻指数为46.6，低于前值的47.7；企业投 资前瞻指数为53.3，低于前值的57.7。 从BCI反映出来的经济节奏看，2024年9月BCI为46.0；"9·24"之后，2024年10-11月经济初步好转，读数 分别为48.1、50.5；12月二次回踩，读数为48.3；2025年1-3月连续好转，读数分别为49.4、52.8、54.8。 4月BCI环比放缓，读数降至50.1。2025年5月再度小幅回升，读数为50.3。 文/广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 2 0 25年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。关于5月经济， EPMI、BCI这两份先后出来的"软数据"在指向上高度吻合，受一揽子金 融政策叠加关 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that Egypt has made progress in achieving macroeconomic stability but still needs to simplify tax and customs procedures and broaden the tax base [1] Group 1 - Egypt has shown improvements in macroeconomic stability according to the IMF [1] - There is a need for Egypt to simplify its tax and customs processes to enhance efficiency [1] - Expanding the tax base is essential for Egypt to sustain its economic progress [1]

研究报告 橡胶周报 胶价总体延续弱势，盘面或将震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14530-15115 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡回落，总体小幅下跌。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14535 元/吨，当周下跌 370 点，跌幅 2.48%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡回落，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面看，5 月 21 日，欧盟对中国轮胎启动 反倾销调查，利空橡胶。从基本面来看，供给方面，天气扰动 主产区割胶工作，成本端存在支撑。天然橡胶进口增加明显。 需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均微幅回落。成品库存持续累 库，处于历史高位。终端车市方面，4 月汽车产销量均同比小幅 增长 ...

Economic Overview - In April, China's major economic indicators showed stable and relatively fast growth, continuing a positive trend despite facing severe challenges from complex international environments and external shocks [2][3][4] - The overall economic recovery foundation remains unstable, necessitating increased counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies and expanded government investment in public goods to stimulate production and employment [2][3][4] Production and Supply - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0%, indicating a relatively fast pace of growth [4][5] - However, both production and supply growth showed signs of slowing down compared to March, primarily due to a market condition of oversupply leading to declining prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 2.7% year-on-year [4][5][6] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily in April, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods [5][6] - The total import and export volume reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, although export growth showed a significant decline compared to March [5][6] Investment Trends - Investment growth showed a slight decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth at 4%, and manufacturing investment growth at 8.8%, both lower than the previous quarter [5][6] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, indicating a worsening trend [5][6] Policy Recommendations - To effectively stimulate market confidence and unleash domestic demand potential, it is crucial to enhance the government's counter-cyclical policy measures and significantly increase public investment [6][7] - The focus should be on improving the quality of public goods and expanding investment to drive production, employment, and income growth, thereby activating the vast domestic demand market [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies while addressing the declining marginal efficiency of these policies [2][3] - The importance of ensuring consistency between economic and non-economic policies to avoid "composite fallacy" is highlighted, as conflicting policies can lead to suboptimal outcomes [2][3] - The necessity of improving the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies to achieve intended policy goals is discussed, indicating that a blockage in these mechanisms can hinder effectiveness [3][4] Group 2 - The role of automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms is crucial, with income distribution, money supply, and prices being key mediators [4][5] - The need for a robust expectation management mechanism is outlined, emphasizing that market participants' expectations can significantly influence policy effectiveness [6][7] - The importance of matching policy goals with appropriate tools is stressed, referencing Tinbergen's principle that the number of policy instruments should at least equal the number of targets [9] Group 3 - The coordination between short-term and long-term policies is essential for stabilizing economic growth, with short-term counter-cyclical policies needing to align with structural reforms [10][11] - The current economic environment necessitates stronger macroeconomic stimulus policies to break negative cycles and restore confidence among businesses and households [8][11] - The potential negative impacts of short-term policies on long-term structural reforms must be carefully managed to ensure overall policy effectiveness [11]