特朗普的关税政策终于进入了实施阶段，以前的各种预测和分析不过是纸上谈兵，唯有真正执行时，才 能揭示这些关税对美国经济究竟是利是弊。我国一直强调，关税战没有赢家，虽然特朗普曾对此嗤之以 鼻。然而，在关税政策实施后的短短24小时内，他或许已逐渐领悟到这一点的深刻含义。关税政策的正 式落地，迅速改变了全球的商业格局。各国商家纷纷将订单转向其他市场，而美国本土的商家则开始为 此买单。仅仅一天，美国经济就开始显现出反噬的迹象，混乱的政策就像一场荒诞剧，在全球贸易的大 风暴中迅速掀起波澜，直接冲击了美国的经济。 政策的不断摇摆，揭示了特朗普政府在贸易政策上目标的严重割裂。美国对莱索托等贫困国家加征50% 关税，名义上是为了"平衡贸易逆差"，然而与保护本土制造业毫无关系。而对加拿大这位"盟友"税率的 骤增，背后的真实原因则更具政治色彩：加方支持巴勒斯坦建国的外交立场。白宫宣称关税是为了"恢 复公平贸易"，然而实际执行时，关税政策早已成为政治博弈的工具。 当特朗普在8月6日宣布对芯片征收100%关税时，苹果公司已经悄然作出应对。库克宣布了一项1000亿 美元的美国投资计划，并与康宁合作生产iPhone玻璃盖板，还决定从亚利桑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eagle Precision (01286) experienced a significant decline of over 15%, closing at 3.4 HKD with a trading volume of 12.96 million HKD due to the impact of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports announced by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Approximately 40% of Eagle Precision's products sold to the U.S. are under "Delivered Duty Paid" terms, meaning the company is responsible for transportation, customs clearance, and payment of applicable taxes and tariffs [1] - About 60% of the products included in the new tariff list will incur additional tariffs, which are significantly higher than the company's gross margin, making the supply commercially unfeasible and potentially constituting a force majeure event [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, revenue from U.S. sales is expected to account for approximately 44.4% of the company's total revenue [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The board of directors acknowledges that the additional tariffs may impact the company's business and operations, but they are currently negotiating to pass on the extra tariffs to customers [1] - The company is unable to provide a specific assessment or calculation of the potential impact of the additional tariffs at this time [1] - Eagle Precision will continue to monitor the situation closely and will take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the additional tariffs on its business and operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee products starting August 1 is intended to support domestic coffee growers, but many U.S. coffee producers argue that the tariff will not effectively aid their industry due to high production costs and unfavorable climate conditions [1][3]. Industry Impact - U.S. coffee bean production accounts for only about 1% of its consumption, indicating a heavy reliance on imported coffee beans [1]. - Following the tariff announcement, coffee prices in the U.S. rose by 14.5% year-over-year in July, leading coffee shops to face tough choices regarding cost management [1]. - Some coffee growers in California highlighted that their production costs are significantly higher than those in Brazil, making it impossible to compete effectively [3]. Producer Sentiment - Many U.S. coffee growers believe that even with increased domestic production, it would not meet the national demand, and the tariff will ultimately lead to higher coffee prices [4]. - A California coffee grower noted that even if all available land for coffee cultivation in California were utilized, it would only contribute a minuscule fraction to global coffee production [4].

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]

丰田日前发布财报说，受美国政府汽车关税政策影响，丰田本财年营业利润将减少1.4万亿日元，4 月至6月间减少4500亿日元，预计本财年公司净利润同比将大幅下降约44%至2.66万亿日元。 新华社东京8月18日电 题：美关税政策重创日本汽车产业 新华社记者刘春燕 日本近期公布一系列宏观经济和行业企业二季度数据，显示美国政府高关税政策重创日本汽车产 业，阻碍日本经济复苏。鉴于美关税对日本经济的负面影响日益凸显，日本产业乃至整体经济前景更趋 悲观。 日本财务省公布的贸易统计数据显示，4月至6月，受美国政府关税政策的影响，日本对美出口连续 3个月同比下降，且降幅呈现扩大之势。由于美国对从日本进口的汽车关税税率自4月3日起由原来的 2.5%大幅提升至27.5%，6月日本对美汽车出口额锐减，同比下降26.7%。 据《日本经济新闻》报道，6月日本对美汽车出口降幅最大的是九州地区，出口量同比减少 67.8%，出口额同比下降76.3%。报道指出，汽车产业是日本经济核心产业，辐射范围广泛，出口大降 将波及零部件相关产业，对区域经济造成打击。 此间媒体和专家评论说，汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国对汽车类 产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eagle Precision (01286) experienced a significant decline of over 15%, currently trading at 3.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 12.96 million HKD due to the impact of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - On August 15, the Trump administration announced an expansion of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [1] - Approximately 40% of Eagle Precision's products sold to the U.S. are under "Delivered Duty Paid" terms, meaning the company is responsible for transportation, customs clearance, and payment of applicable taxes and tariffs [1] - About 60% of the products included in the new tariff list will incur additional tariffs, which are significantly higher than the company's gross margin, making the supply commercially unfeasible [1] Group 2: Financial Exposure - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, revenue from U.S. sales is expected to account for approximately 44.4% of the company's total revenue [1] - The board of directors acknowledges that the additional tariffs may impact the company's business and operations, but specific assessments and calculations regarding the impact are currently not possible as negotiations to pass on the tariff costs to customers are ongoing [1] - The company will continue to monitor the situation closely and will take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the additional tariffs on its business and operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Eagle Precision (01286) experienced a significant decline of over 15%, trading at 3.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 12.96 million HKD due to the impact of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - On August 15, the Trump administration announced an expansion of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [1] - Approximately 40% of Eagle Precision's products sold to the U.S. are under "Delivered Duty Paid" terms, meaning the company is responsible for transportation, customs clearance, and payment of all applicable taxes and tariffs [1] - About 60% of the products included in the new tariff list will incur additional tariffs, which are significantly higher than the company's gross margin, making the supply commercially unfeasible and potentially constituting a force majeure event [1] Group 2: Revenue and Business Impact - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, revenue from U.S. sales is expected to account for approximately 44.4% of the company's total revenue [1] - The board of directors acknowledges that the additional tariffs may impact the company's business and operations, but they are currently negotiating to pass on the tariff costs to customers [1] - The company is closely monitoring the situation and will take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the additional tariffs on its business and operations [1]

尽管如此，鲍威尔在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔会议上，似乎并不打算轻易给出明确的政策转向信号。部分原因在于，市场对于9月降息的预期并非毫无争议。 一方面，尽管整体通胀率有所回落，但仍未稳定降至美联储设定的2%目标之下，特别是近期关税措施对进口商品价格的抬升作用，正逐步显现，为通胀前 景增添了不确定性。另一方面，经济学家们正就近期就业市场表现展开激烈辩论：就业增长放缓，究竟是反映了企业对劳动力需求的减弱，还是劳动力供应 端的限制所致？若问题根源在于后者，那么进一步降息非但不能有效提振就业，反而可能加剧通胀压力，违背美联储的双重使命——促进就业最大化与保持 价格稳定。 牛津经济研究院的副首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯，在其最新发布的研究报告中指出："关税政策的影响正以不均衡的方式渗透至经济各个层面，预计在 未来几个月内，将继续推高通胀水平。对于政策制定者而言，从更为持久的通胀压力中剥离出由关税引起的暂时性波动，将是一项极具挑战性的任务。"基 于这一判断，皮尔斯认为，除非有确凿证据显示经济活动显著放缓，特别是8月份的就业报告出现大幅下滑，否则美联储可能会选择按兵不动，至少维持利 率不变直至12月份的会议。 杰克逊霍尔央行会 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Stone Technology (石头科技) Key Points Industry Overview - The company operates in the home cleaning appliance industry, focusing on robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washing machines [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the robotic vacuum cleaner business generated revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][5]. - The net profit margin for the robotic vacuum cleaner business was 17% in H1 2025 and improved to 18% in Q2 2025 [2][6]. - The floor washing machine business saw revenue of approximately 1.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a fourfold increase year-on-year, with Q2 revenue exceeding 700 million yuan, a sevenfold increase [2][7]. Market Share and Growth - Domestic market share for robotic vacuum cleaners increased from 23% in H1 2024 to 27.2% in H1 2025, achieving the top position during the 618 shopping festival [3][4]. - In the overseas market, the company achieved a 40% market share in Germany, with Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, France) at 8.5%, 11%, and 15% respectively, and the UK market doubled to 15% [2][3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, the company began production in Vietnam in October 2024, which significantly reduced tariff costs for North American supply [4][9]. - The company plans to launch a lawn mower product by the end of 2025, leveraging its existing capabilities in robotic vacuum technology [4][16][23]. Product Development and Innovation - The company introduced the Z1 Plus and Z1 Pro washing and drying machines, along with a collaboration with Hello Kitty for a small washing machine [2][8]. - Despite technological advantages, the company faces challenges in a mature market, leading to adjustments in strategy to control costs and improve efficiency [8][14]. Challenges and Risks - The company has faced pressure on profit margins due to U.S. tariff policies, with the first quarter of 2025 seeing a significant impact from increased tariffs [6][9]. - The washing machine segment has been underperforming, with ongoing losses despite two years of investment [14]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates improvements in the washing machine segment's profitability through strategic adjustments in the second half of 2025 [13]. - The overseas expansion of the washing machine business is expected to contribute positively to profits, with successful entries into markets like South Korea, Australia, and Singapore [12][18]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - High inventory levels are attributed to the company's own manufacturing capabilities and the need for stock in response to North American market demands [15]. - Cash flow in Q2 2025 was negatively impacted by increased procurement costs and market expansion efforts [12]. Conclusion Stone Technology has demonstrated strong growth in its robotic vacuum cleaner segment, with significant market share gains both domestically and internationally. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and underperformance in the washing machine segment necessitate strategic adjustments to maintain profitability and market position. The company's focus on innovation and overseas expansion is expected to drive future growth.