Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, highlighting the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the Fed's interest rate decisions [1][4][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have diverged, with a 21% probability for July and over 90% for September, reflecting internal debates within the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% and income dropped by 0.4%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [2][6] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies have disrupted the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts, with officials divided on the timing and necessity of such cuts [4][6] - The article notes that hawkish officials are concerned about inflation, while dovish officials downplay the impact of tariffs on prices [6][11] - The U.S. deficit is projected to reach $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and its implications for monetary policy [7][11] Group 3 - Despite the market turmoil, the Nasdaq index reached a new high, driven by optimism from investment banks regarding interest rate cuts and corporate earnings resilience [9][11] - The article warns of a narrowing market breadth, with significant gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising concerns about the overall market health [9][11] - The ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and Trump's fiscal policies is framed as a battle for the future of global financial order [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion in June, marking the first surplus in June since 2017, contrasting sharply with a deficit of $316 billion in May [1] - The increase in fiscal revenue, particularly from tariffs, significantly contributed to this surplus, with customs duties totaling approximately $27 billion in June, a 17% increase from May and a staggering 301% increase year-over-year [1][2] - Year-to-date, tariff revenue has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase compared to the same period last year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive monthly data, the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year stands at $1.34 trillion, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year [3] - The net interest expenditure on the national debt reached $84 billion in June, making it the second-largest expenditure item after Social Security, with year-to-date net interest payments totaling $749 billion [3] - Total interest payments for the fiscal year are projected to reach $1.2 trillion, indicating ongoing pressure on U.S. fiscal health due to high national debt yields [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's tariff policies, including a comprehensive 10% tariff on imports and threats of higher tariffs on additional trade partners, have been pivotal in boosting government revenue [2] - The administration's actions have led to a 13% increase in total government revenue year-over-year in June, while expenditures decreased by 7% [2] - The ongoing high-interest burden is a key reason for Trump's push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate debt servicing costs [4]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing declines as new tariff threats from President Trump against Canada have unsettled market indexes, with the Dow down 300 points, S&P 500 down 40 points, and Nasdaq down 120 points [1][2] - A proposed +35% tariff on all Canadian imports could lead to increased inflation for key goods such as oil & gas, automotive parts, and heavy machinery, impacting domestic suppliers [3][4] - Current market sentiment suggests that the anticipated trade deadline may pass without significant incident, but the long-term effects of tariff policies remain uncertain [3][4] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin has reached a record high of $117,880, driven by expectations of favorable regulatory policies as "Crypto Week" approaches in Congress [5] - Over the past year, Bitcoin has surged by +103%, indicating strong market confidence and a lack of immediate headwinds [6] - The favorable political climate following the General Election last November has contributed to Bitcoin's price increase from $37.5K to $45.7K within a month [5] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Reports - A significant increase in economic and earnings reports is expected next week, coinciding with the start of Q2 earnings season and key inflation metrics [7] - Important reports to be released include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, Imports & Exports, and Industrial Production [8] - Major companies such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and General Electric are set to report earnings, which will be closely monitored by the market [9]

Group 1 - Bosnia's total foreign trade in Q1 2025 amounted to 11.3 billion marks, with exports at 4.12 billion marks and imports at 7.18 billion marks, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.07 billion marks [1] - The total foreign trade increased by 5.96% year-on-year, with imports growing by 5.48% and exports by 6.81%, leading to an export-to-import coverage rate of 57.29%, up by 0.71 percentage points [1] - Exports to EU countries reached 3.04 billion marks, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%, while imports from the EU were 4.19 billion marks, up by 3.06%, resulting in a reduced trade deficit of 1.15 billion marks, down by 2.15% [1] Group 2 - The main export destinations for Bosnia in Q1 2025 were Croatia (718 million marks), Germany (612 million marks), and Serbia (455 million marks) [2] - Major import sources included Germany (802 million marks), Italy (778 million marks), and Serbia (765 million marks) [2] - Bosnia's export coverage rates to Austria, Slovenia, and Croatia were 153.5%, 128.88%, and 105.83% respectively [2] Group 3 - The implementation of tariff reduction policies has led to an investment of 16.6 million marks and total revenues of approximately 2 billion marks for related enterprises, with exports increasing by 24.2 million marks [3] - Most enterprises reported growth in production, employment, and income, although the textile, footwear, and furniture sectors faced factory closures and layoffs due to the EU market crisis, while the chemical industry remained stable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by the Trump administration regarding the imposition of tariffs on Japan and South Korea, highlighting the market's muted reaction and the potential for further negotiations before the new tariffs take effect on August 1 [1][8]. Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The Trump administration announced a uniform tariff of 25% on Japan and South Korea, consistent with earlier threats made in April [1]. - The deadline for new trade agreement negotiations has been extended to August 1, providing additional time for discussions [1][11]. - The tariffs on Southeast Asian countries range from 25% to 40%, representing an escalation compared to the previously applied 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.3%, while the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 1.8% following the tariff announcements [2]. - Other Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng index up by 1% and the Nifty 50 index in India remaining flat [7]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - Trump indicated that the tariffs are not "set in stone," suggesting room for negotiation before the August 1 deadline [8]. - Japan's Prime Minister and South Korea's President expressed optimism about reaching a mutually acceptable agreement before the deadline [6]. Group 4: Specific Country Impacts - The article details specific tariff rates for various countries, noting that Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and others have seen slight increases in their tariff rates [9]. - Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia have expressed willingness to increase purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products as part of ongoing negotiations [13]. - Malaysia's current tariff rate is 25%, which is one percentage point higher than previously proposed rates [14].

行情回顾 美元指数本周整体震荡上行，延续上周非农后的反弹走势，主要受到特朗普贸易威胁的消息与市场对美联储货币政策预期的牵动，曾接近98关口但未能成功 上破。本周料将录得三周来首次收涨，截至发稿报97.8。 现货黄金周初区间震荡，期间一度下破3300关口，但随着市场消化特朗普关税"大棒"的威胁，周三欧盘开始稳步回升，截至发稿站上3350美元/盎司。另 外，央行数据显示，我国连续第8个月增持黄金。现货白银周四、周五涨势显著，截至发稿站上37.7美元/盎司，今年涨幅接近30%，创2011年以来最高。 非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳洲联储维持利率不变，与市场预期相违背；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑恐将录得六连跌；美元兑日元周 一大幅上涨后区间盘整。 国际油价方面，红海局势因胡塞武装袭击再度升温、俄罗斯6月原油产量仍低于OPEC+目标、OPEC+有望在10月暂停增产等因素对油价起到推高作用，但是 美国EIA原油库存意外增超市场预期，叠加市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，油价周四起转跌，本周料整体小幅收涨。 风险资产方面，市场基本忽视特朗普最新的关税威胁，风险偏好持续好转，英伟达市值创4万亿美元，带动标普500指 ...

关税扰动降低，双雄份额提升趋势未改 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——黑电行业更新报告 | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090004 | 本报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税税率 有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.11 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产 能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关税挑战的核心策略。中国品 牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated, assumed to follow the general fuel - oil situation [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price declined overnight, and the SC08 contract dropped 1.65% during the day. The uncertainty in the economy and oil demand persists due to the flip - flopping of tariff policies. The supply - demand balance will face pressure from production resumption and a decline in demand in the fourth quarter [2]. - The fuel - oil futures followed the decline of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and the supply risk is lifted, while the low - sulfur fuel oil lacks obvious demand drivers [2]. - Asphalt showed the strongest resistance to decline among oil - product futures. The inventory pattern has changed, and the demand recovery is expected to be delayed [3]. - The international LPG market has a loose supply. The import cost decline promotes PDH profit repair, but the market will maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices went down, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.65% during the day. Trump's threat to increase tariffs on Brazil and the uncertainty of tariff policies affect economic and oil demand. OPEC+ may pause production increase after September, but production resumption and a demand decline in Q4 will pressure supply - demand. The market is supported by the strong physical market in the peak season and the expectation of Russian oil sanctions, but the upside space above $70/barrel for Brent is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil fell today, fuel - oil futures declined. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand in shipping and deep - processing, and the demand from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is insufficient. The supply risk is lifted as the Middle East conflict eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply advantage from the coking profit decline fades, and the demand lacks a clear driver [2]. Asphalt - Crude oil futures declined today, and asphalt showed the strongest resistance among oil - product futures. The actual production in June exceeded the plan, and the inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June. The accumulated shipment of 54 sample refineries has increased significantly year - on - year. The demand recovery is expected to be delayed due to high - temperature and rainy weather. The current asphalt price mainly follows the crude - oil direction, and the BU crack spread rebounded today [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market has a loose supply. Although crude oil has strengthened recently, LPG prices are stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, while the decline in import cost promoted PDH profit repair. The market will maintain a low - level oscillation due to the supply pressure in summer and limited upward momentum [4].

来源 | 华尔街见闻 关税到底会不会推高通胀，美联储内部分歧巨大，而未来几个月的通胀数据将给出答案。 7月10日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示，美联储内部正就 如何应对特朗普关税风险展开激烈辩论，这一分歧可能终结该机构此前的相对团结局面。官员们 在新增成本是否有理由维持高利率问题上存在分歧。 据Timiraos分析，本月预计不会降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔近期已暗示央行降息门槛可能较今春 有所降低，当时更大幅度的关税上调威胁推高物价并削弱经济。相比更明显的经济恶化迹象，鲍 威尔目前勾勒出一条中间路线：温和的价格读数或疲软的就业数据可能足以在夏末前为降息提供 理由。 Timiraos表示，这一转变为官员们在未来三个月研究通胀和就业数据提供了战术灵活性。他认 为，接下来几个月的通胀数据，将是检验两种观点的关键： 一是关税是否会推高通胀，二是如果通胀走势偏离预期（无论是高还是低），美联储内部在应对 策略上是否会出现分歧。 但两个发展改变了这一局面。首先，特朗普已调低一些最极端的关税上调幅度。本周延长了与十 多个国家双边贸易谈判的窗口期，显示8月1日新截止日期后全球贸易战重新 ...

回顾过往，每当出现贸易摩擦或重大政策转向时，国际金价通常随之波动，布局机会倍增。这一次，美 国关税政策的调整同样可能成为黄金行情的重要转折点。领峰贵金属提醒投资者，能否第一时间掌握市 场动态、深刻理解背后的政策逻辑，将决定能否抓住这波潜在的黄金投资良机。 在交易过程中，投资者可能亦会面临到各种突发问题和技术需求。领峰贵金属拥有完善的7×24小时客 户服务体系，不论是交易疑问、行情咨询还是操作指导，平台客服团队都能第一时间响应，保障投资者 每一步操作顺畅无忧。 2025-07-11 17:55:30 作者：狼叫兽 展望未来，美国关税政策或将带来全球资产价值新一轮重估，黄金市场也有望迎来新的增长周期。此刻 正是投资者提前布局的黄金窗口期。领峰贵金属凭借专业的团队支持、先进的交易技术、贴心的客户服 务，正成为越来越多投资者信赖的合作伙伴。在这个充满不确定性的时代，想要把握市场趋势，那就加 入领峰贵金属，紧抓关税变局下的黄金投资机遇！ 近日，美国释放出调整关税政策的明确信号，其宣布自8月1日起，将对来自日本和韩国的部分进口商品 征收25%的关税。这一举措迅速引发全球市场的广泛关注，也加剧了人们对通胀压力、经济前景以及 ...