Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 26, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of each variety. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from November 19 to November 25, 2025, is presented, with the basis on November 25 being 21.6 yuan/ton, and it was 32.6 yuan/ton from November 19 to 24 [1][2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis, ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on November 25 was 1.72 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on November 25 was - 275 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on November 25 was 2288 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on November 25 was 164 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rebar was 23 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore value on November 25 was 3.90 [20]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of copper on November 25 was 70 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was 9.52 [32]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 25 was - 88 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of soybeans No.1 was 52 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn value on November 25 was 1.85 [37]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 25 was 17.40 [49]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of the next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus current - month inter - period of CSI 300 was - 152 [49].

免责声明: LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/26 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华 南 丙烷CIF日本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2025/11/19 4345 4325 4370 565 508 491 4590 7040 -280 -49 2025/11/20 4350 4325 4360 562 509 486 4570 7040 -253 -47 2025/11/21 4400 4315 4340 558 502 485 4530 7040 -165 68 2025/11/24 4405 4305 4400 560 498 489 4440 7080 -174 200 2025/11/25 4330 4310 4430 - 484 - 4470 7100 - 100 日度变化 -75 5 30 - -14 - 30 20 - -100 日度变化 周二，民用气方面，华东4310（-5），山东4430（+30），华南4330（-75）。醚后碳四4470（+70）。最低交割地为华东，基差-2 6（-53），01-0 ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, remaining flat month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point. [8] - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support. [8] - The basis on November 24 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. [8] - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 79.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory is 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing, which is neutral. [8] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, which is bearish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is also bearish. [8] - Overall, due to the recent production cut by refineries, the supply pressure is reduced. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains flat. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086. [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side production shows changes, and demand is below the historical average. Cost - side profit and crude oil trends are analyzed. [8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot price and the 01 contract basis on November 24 are presented, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [8] - **Inventory**: Social, in - plant, and port inventories show different trends of de - stocking and stocking. [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025. [18][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented. [26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are analyzed. [29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [48] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are presented. [56] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is shown. [64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [67][68] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown. [71] - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented. [74] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are shown, as well as the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025. [77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [89] - **New Local Special Bond Trend**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [90] - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2024 is shown. [90] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales are presented. [93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [98] - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January to November 2025 are presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and output. [107]

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Information - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads on November 25, 2025 [1]. Key Points - **Price Spreads**: The current - spot price spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 3.29, -41.37, 6.04, and -61.21 respectively, with changes of -6.16, 54.00%, 54.00%, and 27.31 [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF is -15.80, with a change of 37.00 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as IC/IF are 1.5394, with a change of 0.0106 [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Information - The report shows the IRR, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on November 25, 2025, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Key Points - **IRR and Basis**: The IRR and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, such as the TS basis being -0.0835 with a change of -0.0869 and a 32.60% percentile [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is -0.0120, with a change of -0.0160 and a 19.10% percentile [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF are -0.1170 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Information - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on November 25, 2025 [3]. Key Points - **Prices**: Domestic AU2602 and AG2602 contracts closed at 930.32 and 11808 respectively, with increases of 3.38 and 128 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.57, with a change of -0.31 and a 10.80% one - year historical quantile [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 90426 kg, while silver inventory increased by 13028 to 532299 [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Information - The report includes container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on November 25, 2025 [5]. Key Points - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) index is 1639.37, up 281.7 or 20.75% from November 17 [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The EC2602 (main contract) is 1568.6, up 12.5 or 0.80% from November 21 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3343.24 million TEU, with a negligible change [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market declined with a weakening basis and 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices decreased, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The propane - civil gas spread narrowed. Warehouse receipts decreased. The overseas paper - based prices dropped, but the spread strengthened. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads changed slightly. The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed. Profits of Shandong PDH to propylene and alkylation units improved slightly, while MTBE production profits fluctuated and export profits remained good. There was an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, and inventory accumulation at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate decreased, and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, civil demand is increasing, but there are expected to be many arrivals in December. The Middle East supply is tight, and the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see before the CP official price announcement. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, prices were 4305 (-10) in East China, 4400 (+60) in Shandong, and 4405 (+5) in South China. The price of ether - after carbon four was 4400 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 6 (+23), and the 01 - 02 spread was 98 (-10). FEI was 501.5 (+1.5) and CP was 489.5 (+7.5) dollars/ton [1] 2. Weekly Views - The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices fell. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas spread narrowed. There were 4561 warehouse receipts (-54). Overseas paper - based prices dropped, and the spread strengthened. The gas - oil ratio between North Asia and North America changed little. The PG - CP spread was 126 (-2), and the PG - FEI spread was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North America, and AFEI offshore discounts were flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to propylene improved slightly, the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor, and the MTBE production profit fluctuated with good export profits. Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, and inventory accumulated at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then fluctuated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened oscillatingly this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatingly, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, it stopped production, and the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea for both domestic and foreign markets, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 366.33 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | -11.75 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 415.16 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | -9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.17 | -6.97 | -7.51 | -7.11 | -7.70 | -0.59 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.49 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | -31.23 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -292.33 | -321.19 | -322.85 | -303.69 | -281.99 | 21.70 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 31.67 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | -3.01 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 48.83 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 362.23 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 367.79 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 449.06 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | | Singapore GO M1 | 92.04 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -6.48 | -7.45 | -8.02 | -7.92 | -7.06 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -232.04 | -241.36 | -263.39 | -260.46 | -228.69 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 356.03 | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | -2.06 | | FOB VLSFO | 449.02 | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | -10.88 | | 380 Basis | -5.60 | -6.55 | -5.80 | -5.25 | -4.55 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 3.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 0.8 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2593 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | -15 | | FU 05 | 2632 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | -26 | | FU 09 | 2602 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | -28 | | FU 01 - 05 | -39 | -48 | -49 | -48 | -37 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | -13 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3236 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | -61 | | LU 05 | 3221 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | -60 | | LU 09 | 3220 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | -41 | | LU 01 - 05 | 15 | 24 | 26 | -6 | -7 | -1 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -9 | -6 | -15 | -34 | -19 | | LU 09 - 01 | -16 | -15 | -20 | 21 | 41 | 20 | [6]

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.2个百分点至24.8%，较去年同期低了7.0个百分点，处于近年同期最低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减 幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于34%，受到资金和天气制约。上 周，东北地区沥青产量增加，叠加降价刺激出货，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加15.28%至24.6万吨，处 于中性略偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美 国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对 和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。本周山东胜星等炼厂将稳定 ...