Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in the scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operations may signal a potential interest rate cut, as it reflects a shift in liquidity management strategies aimed at supporting economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On April 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan, marking the first reduction in scale since the tool's inception, with a decrease of 500 billion yuan [1]. - The central bank has not conducted any treasury bond transactions for four consecutive months, indicating a cautious approach to market liquidity management [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations does not necessarily indicate a tightening of market liquidity, as the overall medium-term liquidity injection remains stable [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Rate Cuts - The central bank's recent actions, including a 600 billion yuan MLF operation and significant reverse repo operations, suggest a strategy to maintain liquidity ahead of the May Day holiday [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts to support the real economy [3]. - Analysts predict a possible 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in May, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - Expectations are that policy rates and deposit rates may continue to decline, with the LPR potentially decreasing by 10 basis points by the end of the second quarter [4]. - The timing of interest rate cuts may be influenced by various economic factors, including growth stability and external trade conditions [4]. - There is a possibility that RRR cuts may occur before interest rate reductions, as the central bank seeks to manage liquidity in response to increased government bond supply [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced a rapid bull run in early April, followed by a period of stabilization, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.67% during this consolidation phase [1][11][12] - In May, the funding environment is expected to remain supportive for the bond market, with a historical trend showing that funding rates typically ease further in May compared to April, aided by a reduction in tax payment pressures [2][20][28] - The report highlights three key factors influencing the bond market in May: tariffs, economic fundamentals, and policy responses, with a focus on the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and their potential impact on market sentiment [3][35][52] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's stance has softened since April, leading to a return of funding rates to a "reasonable state," which is expected to support the bond market [2][28][31] - It is projected that government bond supply will significantly increase in May, with net issuance expected to reach 1.53 trillion yuan, nearly doubling from April, which may create short-term fluctuations in funding costs [2][31][32] - The report outlines three scenarios for investment strategies in May, emphasizing the importance of selecting short-term bonds as the most favorable option, while also considering longer-duration positions to capitalize on potential rate cuts [5][54][56]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W18：受五一假期影响，本周二手房成交环比走弱 降准降息或已在路上，未来新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。据央行，2025 年 第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为 3.11%，与 2024 年四季度接近，相较 5 年期以上 LPR 减点约 50bp。主要是自 2024 年 11 月以来，5 年期以上 LPR 报价保持 3.6%不变。中央在多次会议提到 "适时降准降息"，考虑到外部环境的急剧变化和冲击，我们认为降准降 息或已在路上，未来全国平均新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。货币政策作为 宏观调控关键手段，对房地产大周期影响深远，一方面减轻购房信贷负担， 另一方面少部分城市贷款成本或将逐步靠拢住房租金回报率，对楼市的稳 定产生一定积极效果。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-3.0%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.61 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为207.4万平方米，环比提升22.9%， 同比提升 26.2%，其中样本一线城市的新 ...

房地产开发 2025W18：受五一假期影响，本周二手房成交环比走弱 降准降息或已在路上，未来新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。据央行，2025 年 第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为 3.11%，与 2024 年四季度接近，相较 5 年期以上 LPR 减点约 50bp。主要是自 2024 年 11 月以来，5 年期以上 LPR 报价保持 3.6%不变。中央在多次会议提到 "适时降准降息"，考虑到外部环境的急剧变化和冲击，我们认为降准降 息或已在路上，未来全国平均新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。货币政策作为 宏观调控关键手段，对房地产大周期影响深远，一方面减轻购房信贷负担， 另一方面少部分城市贷款成本或将逐步靠拢住房租金回报率，对楼市的稳 定产生一定积极效果。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-3.0%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.61 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为207.4万平方米，环比提升22.9%， 同比提升 26.2%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 65.8 万方，环比 +40.5%，同比+32.6%；样本二线城市为 91 ...

周三，A股市场再度面临下跌，其中银行板块的表现尤其引人关注。值得一提的是，过去一段时间，银行股一直呈现出缓慢回升的趋势，成为国家队在稳定 市场和指数时的关键支柱。然而，如今银行股的剧烈下跌是否意味着这一行情的结束？下周银行股是否会率先引发恐慌性抛售？在此背景下，我们必须认识 到当前银行板块的重要性。 最后，受到业绩下滑的影响，银行的股息支付率基本维持在30%水平。如果银行利润降低，分红无疑也将受到冲击，这将动摇早前持有股东的信心。 进入5月份后，A股市场的风险依旧较为明显。随着年报的陆续披露，我们可以发现核心板块的业绩普遍不佳，即使是一些表现尚可的板块，如证券行业， 其持续性也令人担忧。而目前公布的经济数据已经开始显现明显的回落趋势，自4月份以来的贸易争端对经济造成的负面影响，已经在先行指标中有所体 现。很多公司在半年报中很可能会出现意料之外的业绩滑坡，在降准降息的措施尚未落实到位时，市场又如何能出现反弹？ 让我们重新审视一下银行股的走势及其表现。近期，随着业绩报告的公布，大部分银行股出现了急剧下跌，这背后有五个主要因素。 首先，业绩下滑是一个主要的利空信号。许多大型银行如工商银行、建设银行、招商银行及兴业银 ...

政策定调：适时宽松稳预期 预期升温：机构预测降准降息幅度 多家机构近期密集发布预测报告，普遍认为二季度降准幅度或达0.5个百分点，释放长期资金约1万亿元；降息幅度则在0.1至0.3个百分点之间。东方金诚首 席宏观分析师王青指出，当前实际利率偏高，叠加外部经贸环境压力，降准降息时机已成熟，预计全年降息幅度或超去年，达50个基点。粤开证券罗志恒则 强调，美联储6月降息概率上升，为国内政策腾挪空间，二季度末或为最佳时点。 驱动因素：内需外压双重催化 1. 内需疲软亟需提振 一季度经济数据显示，居民消费与投资意愿仍显不足，企业融资需求疲弱。截至2024年末，居民存款总额突破150万亿元，大量资金沉淀银行体系而未 转化为有效需求。降息可直接降低企业融资成本，激活投资；而降准则通过释放流动性，缓解银行负债端压力，间接推动信贷扩张。 2. 外部风险对冲需求 2025年全球经贸环境不确定性加剧。特朗普政府重返白宫后，对华关税政策可能升级，出口承压风险上升。央行副行长宣昌能指出，货币政策需"适度 加力对冲外部冲击"。此外，美联储降息预期升温，中美利差压力缓解，为国内降息创造窗口。 政策路径：降准先行，降息审慎 民生银行温彬等专 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, marking the first reduction in the scale of this policy tool since its inception, which is interpreted as a potential precursor to future reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts aimed at supporting economic growth [3][5][6]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC announced a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with 700 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [3][5]. - The April operations saw a reduction of 500 billion yuan compared to previous months, coinciding with the maturity of similar amounts in reverse repos [3][5]. - The reduction in reverse repo operations does not indicate a tightening of liquidity but may pave the way for future RRR cuts to enhance monetary policy effectiveness [3][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has a diverse set of monetary policy tools, including short-term reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), with reverse repos serving as a medium to short-term liquidity injection tool [5]. - Since October 2024, the PBOC has conducted seven reverse repo operations with varying scales, indicating a strategic approach to liquidity management [5][6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations and the increase in MLF operations may signal an upcoming RRR cut, which could inject significant long-term liquidity into the market [6][10]. - The PBOC has indicated a willingness to adjust monetary policy based on domestic and international economic conditions, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to support the real economy [8][9]. - Forecasts suggest a potential RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points and a reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points in May, which would enhance credit demand and support economic stability [10].

中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts are aimed at reducing market costs, but concerns about capital diversion may limit their effectiveness [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is a critical market interest rate, and high rates could negatively impact both debt and equity markets [1] - Continuous liquidity injections by the central bank have led to a decline in bond yields and an increase in bond prices, indicating a need for coordinated action with the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Long-term capital entering the market is seen as a positive sign, particularly for the CSI A500 index, which has struggled to attract new funds [4] - The entry of two insurance funds into the market suggests increased interest from large institutional investors [4] Group 3 - Post-holiday market movements are expected to be characterized by minor fluctuations as investors digest previous gains and losses [6] - Institutional buying amidst retail investor caution indicates a positive outlook for the market after the holiday [6] Group 4 - The technology sector is experiencing a resurgence partly due to recent news and the fact that many stocks have reached relatively low levels [7] - Upcoming meetings in May related to technology and robotics will be crucial for market performance, with a focus on trading volume [7] Group 5 - The ChiNext index saw a volume increase of 0.83%, with over 3,400 stocks in the two markets showing positive performance [8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 动(bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.54 | -5.09 | DR007 | 1.78 | 3.35 | | | GC001 | 1.61 | -28.50 | GC007 | 1.68 | -17.00 | | CCC | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.60 | 0.00 | | I | 1年期国债 | 1.46 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | -2.00 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.62 | -2.35 | 10年期美债 | 4.23 | -6.00 | | 品种 | 收 ...