先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-29 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2507 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.2% | 4 | | ps2507 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.8% | 8 | 2.1% | 17 | | si2507 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.7% | 9 | 2.6% | 11 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 4 | 0.9% | 33 | 1. ...

以下文章来源于ericwarn丁宁 ，作者ericwarn丁宁 ericwarn丁宁 . 市赚率的推广 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 来源：雪球 5月20日 ， 国内降息 ， 国有六大行和部分股份行也启动了年内首次人民币存款利率下调 。 其中 ， 一年 期存款利率首次跌破 " 1% " ， 国内正式进入低息时代 ！ 与此同时 ， 最近一段时间的银行股却出现了大 涨 ， 不再创新高 ， 就在创新高的路上 。 那么 ， 大涨过后的银行股 ， 是否还有投资价值呢 ？ 银行指数的股息率 ： 并不能直接挂钩无风险利率 低息环境下 ， 高股息的银行股受到追捧 。 仅以近期关注度极高的银行AH指数为例 ， 4月30日最新公告的 股息率便高达7.3% 。 也正是因此 ， 进入到5月份之后 ， 投资者对其趋之如骛 ， 也就理所当然 。 | 中调清教有限公司 | | | | | 2025年4月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FRITAH | | 中证AH价格优选指数系列包括中证A100AH价格优选指数、中证银行AH ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court blocking Trump's tariff policy has led to a surge in market optimism, with the emergence of a new trading strategy known as "TACO trading," which capitalizes on the expectation that Trump will backtrack on his aggressive trade policies [1][6][7]. Market Reactions - Major Asian stock indices and U.S. futures rose significantly following the court's decision, reversing previous declines [3][4]. - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.5% to 38,263.36 points, while U.S. futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 1.2%, 1.6%, and 1.7% respectively [3][5]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.508%, indicating a shift in market focus from monetary policy to fiscal concerns [5]. TACO Trading Strategy - The "TACO trading" strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," has gained traction among traders who anticipate that Trump will retract his harsh tariff announcements after initial market declines [6][7]. - This strategy was recently validated when Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU goods, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock markets [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that investors have begun to understand Trump's negotiation tactics, likening his approach to a poker game where he may bluff but ultimately retreats under pressure [7]. Economic Implications - The ruling and subsequent market reactions have implications for countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Japan and South Korea, which also saw their stock indices rise [4][6]. - The Bank of Korea's decision to cut interest rates from 2.75% to 2.5% reflects efforts to alleviate economic pressures amid these trade uncertainties [4].

Group 1 - Investors do not need to open a separate account to trade ETFs; an A-share securities account is sufficient [1] - Some domestic ETF varieties support T+0 trading, such as bond ETFs, gold ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and currency ETFs, while stock ETFs implement T+1 trading [2] - ETF subscription and redemption generally follow the principle of share subscription and share redemption, with the consideration including a basket of securities, cash alternatives, cash differences, and other considerations [3] Group 2 - Investing in stock ETFs offers advantages of both funds and stocks, providing a convenient, flexible, and cost-effective investment channel, allowing investors to invest in a basket of stocks with a single transaction, thus reducing risk compared to individual stocks [4] - There is an arbitrage opportunity in bond ETFs; for example, if a bond ETF's net asset value in the primary market is 100 yuan and its price in the secondary market is 95 yuan, investors can buy in the secondary market and redeem a basket of bonds in the primary market to profit from the price difference [5]

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential risks and pitfalls of using leveraged ETFs, particularly those that aim to provide three times the daily return of the semiconductor index [1][2][3] - Leveraged ETFs do not create value and are not a low-risk, high-reward arbitrage tool, as they amplify both gains and losses [2][30] - The concept of "volatility drag" is introduced, explaining how daily resetting of positions can lead to significant losses over time, especially in volatile markets [3][6][24] Group 2 - A mathematical example illustrates that a 10% gain followed by a 10% loss results in a net loss for both the underlying asset and the leveraged ETF, highlighting the asymmetrical nature of returns [4][5] - The article emphasizes that leveraged ETFs have a "path dependency," meaning their final returns are highly influenced by the specific daily price movements [7][19] - The extreme risk of leveraged ETFs is underscored by the fact that a single-day drop of over 33.33% in the underlying index could theoretically render the ETF worthless [8][9] Group 3 - Historical performance data shows that while a specific three-times leveraged semiconductor ETF has had impressive annualized returns over various time frames, these returns are not guaranteed to continue [19][20][35] - The article warns that the high volatility and potential for significant drawdowns, as seen in 2022, make these products unsuitable for long-term holding [22][36] - It is suggested that such leveraged products are more appropriate for short-term trading or very small allocations due to their heightened risk compared to broad market indices [25][34] Group 4 - The article draws parallels between physics and finance, stating that relying solely on leverage for excess profits is akin to believing in a perpetual motion machine [13][15] - The high management fees associated with leveraged ETFs, such as a 0.75% fee for SOXL compared to 0.03%-0.2% for regular ETFs, further erode potential returns [17] - Regulatory warnings indicate that leveraged ETFs are not suitable for long-term investment strategies [18][34]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's unconventional operations have triggered a global financial market response, leading to a temporary alleviation of the "trust crisis" in U.S. assets as indicated by rising dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4.5% and 30-year yields dropping below 5% for the first time since last year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Finance Ministry's issuance of a survey to market participants regarding bond issuance and market conditions signals a potential policy shift [2]. - Reports suggest Japan may consider reducing the issuance of long-term bonds to ease market pressure, addressing the recent surge in long-term bond yields [2]. - The combination of the survey and potential bond issuance cuts is seen as a direct response to the global asset sell-off driven by rising Japanese bond yields [2]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Markets - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has structurally shifted as the potential decrease in Japanese long-term bond issuance compels global investors to focus on U.S. bonds, leading to a significant reduction in asset sell-off [3]. - The decline in long-term bond yields has restored confidence in the stock market, with all three major U.S. stock indices experiencing gains [3]. - The breach of the 5% threshold in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields alleviates short-term concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and helps restore investor confidence in global assets [3]. Group 3: Underlying Concerns - Despite the temporary market recovery, analysts caution that Japan's actions do not fundamentally resolve structural issues, particularly regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4]. - The risk associated with U.S. debt remains, as recent auctions for 20-year bonds were weak, and upcoming auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds will be critical indicators of demand strength [4]. - Global risk appetite remains fragile, with potential escalations in U.S. tariff policies or deteriorating economic fundamentals posing risks of renewed asset sell-offs [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Japan's recent market intervention has provided a short-term boost to global financial markets, but deeper issues such as Japan's fiscal sustainability, U.S. debt expansion risks, and sluggish global economic recovery remain unresolved [5]. - The future trajectory of global asset markets will depend on the effectiveness of policy coordination among countries and the pace of economic recovery [5]. - Any policy missteps by involved parties could trigger new rounds of market volatility in this ongoing "confidence game" [5].

Market Overview - The consensus is that A-shares are not overvalued, and there is limited downside for major indices in the short term [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a gap fill at 3316 points [1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed A-shares with a net inflow of nearly 12 billion from southbound funds [3] - Several new consumer stocks, including Mixue, Pop Mart, and Maogeping, have reached new highs [3] Valuation Metrics - Valuations for key consumer stocks are notably high, with Old Puhuang at 90x PE, Mixue at 46x, Pop Mart at 93x, and Maogeping at 58x [5] - These stocks are becoming keywords for new consumer assets, reminiscent of core assets in 2021 [6] Market Trends - There is a trend of A-shares listing in Hong Kong, with companies like CATL and Heng Rui leading the way [6] - The overall market volatility is expected to remain consistent, with a possibility of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks moving in tandem [6] Investment Strategies - The Heng Seng Consumer ETF (159699) and Hong Kong High Dividend ETF (159302) have grid yields around 10% [6] - The grid trading strategy has shown positive returns, with the Heng Seng Consumer ETF yielding +9.15% and the High Dividend ETF yielding +10.99% [7] Defense Spending Insights - The U.S. defense budget is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2026, marking a 12% increase from the previous year [11] - Global defense spending is on the rise, with countries like Germany and Japan significantly increasing their budgets [9] Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding military spending reductions are unfounded, as the trend is towards increased military budgets [10] - The current stock-bond yield spread is at 6.33%, indicating a higher relative value for stocks compared to historical averages [18]

3个用户侧储能项目投运 ■ 宁德时代：助力4.66MWh储能项目投运 据甬聚电子官微消息， 江苏 海安金锻工业有限公司 1.99MW/4.66MWh 储能项目正式投运。 据了解，该 项目采用了宁德时代20台工商业储能一体柜，每台配置32V/280Ah磷酸铁锂电池，通过模块化设计实现快速部署。 项目 年放电量预 计达260万度，通过"削峰填谷+需求侧响应"模式，项目每年可为园区企业节省电费超百万元，投资回收周期缩短至5年以内。 ■ 云基慧储能：扬州7.955MWh分布式储能项目并网 插播 ：531后 ，工商业储能何去何从？6月9日-12日，行家说储能联合光亚法兰克福举办"2025年全球用户侧储能产业价值峰会暨应用示范展"，联合业内 头部企业共探工商储发展之道，点击" 阅读原文 "了解详情 2025年6月起，江苏省将实施工商业分时电价新政及分布式能源政策，对工商业储能项目经济性、技术要求带来新考验，部分企业暂缓投资 。同 时，由于收益预期的改变，部分在建工商业储能项目不得不暂时叫停，已投运项目或面临毁约风险。 尽管如此，近期江苏仍有多个用户侧储能项目落地投运，显示出了工商业储能参与方的承压能力和对江苏市场的长期信 ...

利率是各国央行调整货币政策的核心之一，对外汇市场的直接影响主要体现在货币供需、市场预期、资 本流动及政策分化等方面。 1. · 加息与升值：央行加息会吸引更多资本流入，减少市场货币流通量，推动本币升值。例如，美联储加 息通常导致美元走强，因其作为全球储备货币的地位强化了市场对美元的需求。 · 降息与贬值：降息降低本币资产吸引力，导致资本外流，货币贬值。 · 美元的特殊地位：美联储的利率决议对全球外汇市场影响尤为显著。若美联储维持高利率或推迟降 息，美元可能相对其他货币走强；反之，若释放降息信号，美元则可能疲软。 2. 市场预期与实际决议的差异 · 预期管理：市场往往提前消化利率决议的预期。若实际决议与预期不符，可能引发汇率剧烈波动。 · 前瞻指引：央行对未来政策路径的表态会直接影响市场预期。鲍威尔在 2025 年 5 月会议上强调 "不确 定性加剧"，暗示降息门槛提高，导致美元短期走强。 3. · 关税与通胀的相互作用：特朗普政府的关税政策可能推高通胀，迫使美联储维持高利率以抑制物价， 间接支撑美元。 · 多国政策分化：各国央行利率决议的差异可能导致汇率波动。以 2025 年 5 月为例，英国央行降息而挪 威 ...