Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of pure benzene is expected to increase on a month - on - month basis, but the small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase. Consumption of pure benzene is likely to rise on a month - on - month basis as the overhaul devices of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene restart intensively. In the long - term, there is an improving trend in the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink. Recently, international oil prices are weakly volatile, and technically, BZ2603 should focus on the support around 6100 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6179 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the settlement price was 6210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The trading volume was 2318 lots, and the open interest was 14833 lots. The mainstream prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets varied, with some rising and some falling [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB intermediate price was 734 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the CFR intermediate price in China was 750.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.97 dollars/barrel, down 0.64 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 dollars/ton, down 6.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.6 tons, up 1.03 tons. The port inventory was 16.3 tons, down 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products of pure benzene varied. For example, the operating rate of styrene was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 576 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 11th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, down 10.43% from the previous period. BZ2603 fell 1.14% to close at 6179 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.21% to 78.79%, while that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 3.29% to 59.66%. The weighted operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased by 1.22% to 76.74%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 10.43% to 14.6 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - **Bean No.1**: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - **Hogs**: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - **Inter - variety**: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - **Eggs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - **Feed End**: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply increases slightly due to new oil - benzene device production, while hydro - benzene开工率 drops. Demand from phenol rises but is partly offset by the decline in adipic acid. Overall demand is flat. Inventory decreases at East China ports due to typhoon - affected arrivals. 8 - 9月 may see slight inventory reduction, but improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak consumption [5]. - **Styrene**: Supply is sufficient with new device production and resumed operations. Demand is weak, with EPS开工率 dropping significantly and PS/ABS rising slightly. Port inventory doesn't increase but remains high. Mid - term supply pressure persists with new capacity planned. The strong pure benzene price provides some support, and the macro - environment helps sentiment, but fundamental positives are limited [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 12, styrene futures rose 0.99% to 7322 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (- 27 yuan/ton), and pure benzene futures rose 0.32% to 6250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On August 12, Brent crude closed at 64.0 (+0.1 dollar/barrel), WTI at 66.6 (+0.0 dollar/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was 6180 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 21.1 (-0.6) million tons, a 2.71% decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 (-1.0) million tons, a 6.42% decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 (-1.7) million tons, a 10.43% decrease [4]. - **Supply**: A new styrene device in Shandong was put into operation. Weekly styrene output was 35.9 (-0.2) million tons, and capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [4]. - **Demand**: Among styrene's downstream 3S, EPS capacity utilization dropped 10.6% to 43.7%, ABS rose 5.2% to 71.1%, and PS rose 1.7% to 55.0% [4]. 3.2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and spot prices rose slightly on August 12 compared to August 11, while the basis decreased. Pure benzene futures, East China spot, and some international prices also changed, with different price differences showing various trends [8]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 1 to August 8, styrene output decreased by 0.63% to 35.9 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 2.36% to 44.6 million tons. Styrene and pure benzene inventories at ports and factories all decreased [9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 1 to August 8, the capacity utilization of styrene and some pure - benzene downstream products changed. EPS capacity utilization dropped significantly, while ABS and PS increased [10]. 3.3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply issues may push up naphtha costs, with an expected record - high naphtha import of 16 - 17 million tons in 2025 [11]. - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India plans to accelerate petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [11]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, price differences, inventory, and capacity utilization [16][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US tariff conflict has been temporarily eased, and attention should be paid to the differentiation in the midstream start - up rates [1] - The government has introduced new regulations on loan consumption, including personal consumption loan fiscal discount policies and service industry business entity loan discount policies [1] Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have continued to decline [1] - Black: Glass prices have declined [1] Midstream - Chemical: The PX start - up rate has been rising recently, while the PTA start - up rate has been declining [2] - Energy: The decline in coal consumption by power plants has slowed down, and coal inventories have increased [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [2] - Service: The popularity of the film and television industry has decreased [2] Other Data Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Different industries have different credit spread values and trends, such as the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry being 47.81BP this week, with a previous value of 45.97BP [43] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries have different price index changes, such as the spot price of corn being 2320.0 yuan/ton on August 12, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% [44]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]