【4 月 28 日 PVC 期货价格低位运行，现货市场稳中略涨】4 月 28 日，PVC 期货价格维持低位，V2509 报收 4989 元/吨，涨 0.28%，成交量 72 万手，环比提高 10 万手，持仓量 91 万手，环比下降 3 万手。 现货方面，华东地区电石法 PVC 五型报价在 4740 - 4860 元/吨，贸易商出货清淡，下游制品企业拿货 以刚需低价为主且存观望情绪。 成本方面，近期部分电石装置检修，五一假期临近下游企业备货积 极，电石价格触底反弹，4 月 28 日内蒙古乌海地区电石价格为 2500 元/吨，环比提高 50 元/吨。 供应 方面，上周部分 PVC 装置恢复运行，行业供应小幅回升，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 行业周度开工率为 78.63%，环比提高 1.28 个百分点，周度产量为 45.94 万吨，环比提高 0.75 万吨，增幅 1.66%，PVC 行 业集中检修期延续，检修力度放缓。 需求方面，上周 PVC 价格再跌刺激部分投机需求，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 生产企业周度预售订单量为 60.2 万吨，环比提高 6.02%，临近五一假期，下游制品企业放假 预期增多，截至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has eased, but the issue remains unresolved. Direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold, and the expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. PX and PTA maintain low valuations and inventory reduction, but the rebound is limited due to weak gasoline and demand expectations. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - changes [1] - For short - fiber, the US tariff situation is improving, market sentiment is stable, but the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient. Some yarn mills plan to have holidays during the May Day period, and the raw material stocking intention is average, with the market in a volatile consolidation [1] - For PR, the tariff policy has little impact on bottle - chip demand. The bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the processing margin of bottle - chip factories is limited. The market price is expected to follow the raw material cost [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Relevant figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Show China PTA load, South Korea PTA load, Taiwan PTA load, China PX load, and Asian PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Comprise PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, texturing, and dyeing start - up rates [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][93][101] Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and PX/PTA/PF/PR are stable [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Cross - period: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the year - on - year profit of large - scale industrial enterprises turned positive to 2.5%, and the profit momentum improved marginally. The increase in quantity, driven by the "rush to export" and inventory replenishment, was the main reason for the profit recovery, despite the expanding year - on - year decline in PPI [26]. - The profit shares of the mid - and downstream industries increased compared to January - February, while the upstream share decreased. The mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry performed well with an expanding year - on - year increase, and the profit growth rates of optional and necessary consumer goods in the downstream weakened [26]. - Looking ahead, the "rush to export" rhythm may slow down in the second quarter. The industrial enterprise profit momentum may weaken marginally due to the potential impact of export slowdown on PPI and sales volume. However, with the "Four Stabilities" policy and possible incremental policies in the middle of the year, the profit recovery may gradually shift to domestic demand such as consumption and investment [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: "Rush to Export" Boosts Mid - and Downstream Performance - **Upstream**: The year - on - year decline in the mining industry widened, and the energy supply industry turned from positive to negative in terms of profit growth. For example, coal and oil and gas mining saw an expanded decline in profit, while non - metallic mining turned from negative to positive [9][18]. - **Mid - stream**: The year - on - year profit turned positive, and the equipment manufacturing industry outperformed the material processing industry. The profit of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, and the material processing industry also had a positive growth rate of 18% [19][21]. - **Downstream**: The growth rate of necessary consumer goods slowed down, and the profit of optional consumer goods weakened. However, the electronic equipment industry still performed strongly [20][21]. 3.2 Cost End: Marginal Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to March, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income for large - scale industrial enterprises was 85.37 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 yuan and a 0.26 - yuan increase from January - February. The cost pressure increased marginally. - The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.43 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16 yuan and a 0.13 - yuan decrease from January - February, indicating significant cost - reduction effects. - The cumulative operating income profit margin was 4.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 pct but a 0.17 - pct increase from January - February, showing a slow improvement in profit efficiency [22]. 3.3 Inventory: Slight Replenishment of Actual Inventory - By the end of March, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.55 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, a 0.1 - pct increase from the end of February. After excluding PPI, the actual inventory growth rate was 6.7%, higher than 6.4% in February, indicating a slight replenishment [25]. - From January to March, the turnover days of finished - product inventory were 21.2 days, a 0.1 - day increase year - on - year but a 1.1 - day decrease from January - February. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.9 days, a 4.0 - day increase year - on - year but a 4.0 - day decrease from January - February. Although the turnover and collection speed were still slower than the same period, there was a marginal improvement [25]. - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of single - month operating income rose to 4.4%. Considering the expanding price decline, the actual destocking rhythm accelerated compared to January - February [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the egg industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises decreased slightly, the culling age decreased slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs remained basically the same, and the price of chicks continued to decline from a high level. - Due to the limited time this year when egg prices fell below feed costs, most breeding farms chose to extend the breeding period or molt the hens. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg supply was tight, but after May Day, with molting hens starting to lay eggs and the arrival of the rainy season in the South, there may be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. - Recently, the inventory pressure in the sales areas has increased. Egg traders mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and the sales in the production areas are slow, but the festival effect still provides short - term support. - The breeding profit has dropped significantly and is lower than the average level of the past four years. Currently, it is near the break - even point. If continuous losses occur, farmers may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity. - The egg basis has decreased slightly this week, and the near - month futures contracts are still slightly at a discount. The current price difference between the near - term and far - term egg futures is at a medium level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract shows an oscillating state. - Based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle, the current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020. Before the production capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and observe for reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes sub - sections on spot prices, egg basis, egg price differences, and futures institutional net positions [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culling situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [14][16][19][21] Demand Analysis - Consists of sub - sections on shipping volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [24][27][30] Profit Analysis - Includes breeding profit and egg - feed price ratio [33][36]

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6.3%；以 旧换新政策带动国内商品消费积极改善，也对消费制造业营收有拉动，行业实际营收增速同比边际上行 ...

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

利润增速有所回升，但改善基础有待夯实。 3月利润增速录得2.6%，较上月上行约3个百分点，主因基数走低 推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。 分 企业类型来看 ，私营和股份制企业利润改善明显，国企和外商企业均有回落。 从两年平均增速来看 ，仅私营 报 告 正 文 3 月收入、利润增速双双回升。 2025 年 3 月，规上工企营业收入录得 4.2% ，较上月有所回升。工企利 润增速录得 2.6% ，较上月上行约 3 个百分点，主因基数走低推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结 合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。从 工企利润 的构成 来看， 3 月工企的 营收增速有所回升，主因当月 生产大幅改善 。 同时 营收利润率 增速略有上升，共同带动 本月利润增速 上行 。本月成本费用较上月微升， 利润率增速上行或受到春节前置的一定扰动。 往后看 ， 随着外部冲 击影响逐渐显现，叠加去年同期基数走高 ， 利润或将再度承压 ， 静待稳增长政策进一步加码显效 。 此外，有三点值得关注。 一是企业经营压力仍较高 。工企产销率续创近十年来同期新低，而同时其 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand for pure benzene remains weak, with high inventory pressure in PA6 and MDI, dragging down the low operation rates of caprolactam and aniline, and styrene is also undergoing centralized maintenance. The domestic pure benzene operation rate has further declined, and port inventory has decreased again, but there is still pressure from South Korea's shipments to China, and the pure benzene processing fee remains under pressure [2]. - Styrene maintenance has increased, the operation rate has significantly declined, and port inventory has continued to fall, but the port basis has weakened, reflecting downstream pressure. The operation rates of PS and ABS remain weak, and the finished - product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, with a generally weak fundamental situation [2]. - The market is concerned about the possible subsequent shutdown of US ethane - cracked ethylene - to - styrene plants, and attention should be paid to China's tariff policy on US ethane. The signal of the easing of the China - US tariff war on April 22 may support the market [2]. Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - Analyzes EB's main contract trend and basis, EB main contract basis, the difference between the first - and third - month styrene contracts, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, styrene's spot import profit, the price difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea for pure benzene, and China's pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Operation and Inventory - Covers the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the pure benzene operation rate, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the styrene operation rate, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the styrene factory inventory [22][24][27] Downstream Operation and Production Profit - Examines the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [35][42][43] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Analyzes the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [45][50][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.