Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range. The support logic at the ore end is weakening, and the smelting logic restricts the price elasticity. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually increasing, which puts downward pressure on nickel prices. In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to drop significantly, but there is also an upper limit. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, which slightly boosts the upside space of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, and the price movement is mainly influenced by the macro - sentiment of the sector. There are also some uncertainties in the news, such as Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula [1]. - In the stainless - steel market, the tug - of - war between bulls and bears is intensifying, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The bulls focus on the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, while the bears are concerned about the actual supply - demand situation, such as the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are likely to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting logic restricts price fluctuations. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually rising, which suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, it's hard for nickel prices to fall sharply, but there is an upper ceiling. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upside potential of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The news about Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula adds uncertainties [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: The bulls are concerned about the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, such as the maintenance of a Shandong steel mill and the phased production cuts in Guangxi. The bears focus on the actual supply - demand situation, including the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory down 573 tons to 21,374 tons, spot inventory up 437 tons to 12,014 tons, and bonded area inventory down 400 tons to 5,190 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. - The ferronickel inventory at the end of July was 33,415 tons, a 10% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is still relatively high but has slightly eased [5]. - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, a 0.44% decrease week - on - week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 622,713 tons, a 0.69% decrease week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 483,591 tons, a 0.11% decrease week - on - week [5]. - The nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 389,800 wet tons to 10,333,400 wet tons, with Philippine nickel ore accounting for 10,092,000 wet tons. By grade, low - nickel and high - iron ore was 5,400,000 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,933,400 wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - ore miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial parks have suspended the production of all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel production by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - Due to capacity restrictions, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils, suspending the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 compared to T - 1, up 1,410 compared to T - 5, down 3,180 compared to T - 10, up 2,040 compared to T - 22, and down 2,450 compared to T - 66 [9]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 compared to T - 1, up 145 compared to T - 5, down 45 compared to T - 10, up 215 compared to T - 22, and up 280 compared to T - 66 [9]. - Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads are also presented in the table, showing the price changes and market conditions of nickel and stainless - steel - related products over different time periods [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it remains in a state of inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is not high. With the current low processing fees for spot goods persisting for some time, and considering the limited inventory pressure of filament and the continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade chips at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to gradually stabilize and has upward potential. It is advisable to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not significant, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. The situation is favorable and the profit margin is decent. However, in the far - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rates. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of the polyester yarn end is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fees on the futures market are still in a relatively low range, opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices can be considered [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, crude oil prices dropped from $69.7 to $66.4, PTA internal - market spot prices decreased from 4750 to 4690, and PTA processing fees decreased from 121 to 101. The PXN spread weakened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits declined [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and its 1.2 - million - ton plant restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton plant reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the MEG external - market price decreased from 523 to 525, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 506 to 512. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 568 to - 554 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6600 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from 21 to 21 (with fluctuations in between). The cotton - polyester staple fiber spread increased from 8185 to 8340 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xianglu's small - line plant was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard spot increased from 1720 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13910 to 14150. The RU main - contract price increased from 14310 to 15525 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread between the mixed rubber and the RU main - contract decreased from - 260 to - 1215, and the spread between the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard and the NR main - contract increased from 197 to 289 [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased from 6070 to 6135, and the domestic styrene profit remained at - 198 (with fluctuations in between). The EPS domestic profit decreased from 320 to 200 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: This week, the supply of pure benzene showed a marginal loosening trend, with the restart capacity higher than the shutdown capacity, and the overall supply increased by about 14,000 tons. The demand was weak, and the short - stop of phenol devices significantly affected the consumption of raw materials. The port inventory was stable and weak due to typhoon disturbances, and the port was in a destocking state in the short term. The supply - demand balance sheet indicates a slight destocking of pure benzene in August - September, with fundamental improvement. However, the weak terminal orders and high hidden inventory limit the upward momentum. After the important macro - level meeting, the market sentiment declined, and the market returned to fundamental - led rhythm [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene was stable, and there was no new large - scale device maintenance last week. The Jingbo new device produced qualified products, bringing marginal supply increments. The demand was in the seasonal off - peak, and the 3S industries'开工 rates fluctuated slightly, providing rigid support for styrene raw materials. After the important meeting this week, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the styrene futures price fluctuated downward. The basis of the main contract turned from negative to positive, and the inter - month structure changed from B to C, indicating market expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season. If the Jingbo new device operates smoothly in August, the supply pressure will increase. The balance sheet shows that styrene will face destocking pressure in August - September, and the fundamental pattern will remain loosely supplied [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On August 6, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.04% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 (+42 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.42% at 6,246 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.2 dollars/barrel (-1.1 dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 67.6 dollars/barrel (-1.1 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,030 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: The sample factory inventory of styrene was 217,000 tons (+12,000 tons), a 5.9% month - on - month inventory increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,000 tons), an 8.8% month - on - month inventory increase. The overall styrene inventory increased. The pure benzene port inventory was 170,000 tons (-1,000 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: The overhauled styrene devices resumed operation, and the overall supply was stable. The weekly output of styrene remained at 361,000 tons (+0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.9% (+0.1%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S industries changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 54.3% (-1.0%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.9% (-0.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 53.3% (+1.7%), with the overall开工 rate fluctuating slightly [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: From August 4 to August 5, the prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot contracts showed different trends, with changes ranging from -0.50% to 1.13%. The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha also decreased slightly [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: From July 25 to August 1, the output of styrene in China remained unchanged at 361,000 tons, while the output of pure benzene increased from 425,000 tons to 436,000 tons, a 2.37% increase. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased from 151,000 tons to 164,000 tons (8.83%), and the domestic styrene factory inventory increased from 205,000 tons to 217,000 tons (5.87%). The national pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly from 171,000 tons to 170,000 tons (-0.58%) [7]. - **Capacity Utilization Rates**: From July 25 to August 1, the capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed. For example, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased from 78.8% to 78.9%, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased from 55.2% to 54.3%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased from 51.6% to 53.3% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - OPEC+ will significantly increase production again in September to complete the withdrawal from the latest round of production cuts and compete for market share, but future choices remain uncertain [9]. - The non - farm payrolls in the United States in May were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and in June from 147,000 to 14,000, a total reduction of 258,000 in two months [9]. - The Federal Reserve remained on hold, and Powell avoided giving guidance on a September interest rate cut [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, costs, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products over different time periods [10][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Group 1: Core View - The growth of US soybeans is in good condition, and the trade policies between the US and other countries show no obvious signs of easing, putting pressure on the US market, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The current trade situation between China and the US may keep the Brazilian premium strong. The domestic market presents a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the NO1 contract expected to fluctuate strongly, but the short - term strong performance of soybean oil suppresses the performance of soybean meal. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the US soybean yield per unit and the domestic import situation of Argentine soybean meal [6][7] - In terms of supply, the good - rate of US soybeans has risen to 70% this week. Although the rainfall in the production areas will be slightly less in the next two weeks without obvious high - temperature, the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [6] - In terms of demand, the breeding cycles of pigs and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased this week [7] - In terms of inventory, the domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal has a small inventory reduction but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [7] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot, the basis of rapeseed meal spot, etc. For example, the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6 is - 23 [5] Spread Data - The spread data include the M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1 spreads, the spot spread and the main - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal. For example, the M9 - 1 spread is - 46, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 281 [6] Other Data - The data also involve the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills, the start - up rate and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills [6]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]