Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in technology stocks on the first trading day of the new year, particularly in sectors such as internet, cloud computing, big data, and consumer electronics [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792) saw an intraday increase of 3.44%, with notable gains from individual stocks like Kuaishou, which rose over 11%, and Bilibili, which increased by more than 3% [1] - According to Wind data, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks is projected to reach 1,404.844 billion HKD by 2025, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - Since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the total net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 5.1 trillion HKD, indicating a strong and sustained investment trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the net inflow trend is likely to continue, supported by a synchronized easing in both China and the U.S., along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance liquidity [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792) closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, with its top ten constituent stocks including major tech giants like Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Meituan, which collectively account for nearly 60% of the ETF's weight [1]

2026年A股首个交易日（1月5日），重仓互联网龙头的港股互联网ETF（513770）跳空高开，强势大涨 超4%突破年线！港股科网龙头多数上涨，快手狂飙逾12%，哔哩哔哩涨超5%，贝壳、平安好医生、第 四范式等齐涨超4%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 * | | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 婴加 九转 画线 工具 (2 2) | | | | | | | | | 进股互联网ETF (1) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 0.541 | | | | | 513770(德股互联网ETF] 10:04 价 0.542 落跌 0.023(4.43%) 均价 0. | | | | | 4.53% | ಕ್ | | 0.542 +0.023 +4.43% | | | | CONNO A | | | | | | 0.535 | 1 2 | | | | | | | | 3 ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund sales regulations in China, the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on oil prices, and the overall economic indicators reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Public Fund Sales Regulations - The new regulations for public fund sales have officially been implemented, easing the redemption fees for bond funds. Individual investors holding bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days will be exempt from redemption fees, alleviating concerns about liquidity and trading characteristics of bond funds [1][3]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the holiday period. The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, are expected to lead to increased instability in the region, which may affect oil exports that were already under U.S. sanctions. Short-term oil prices are likely to trend upwards due to these developments, while medium-term impacts may arise from the anticipated reduction in Venezuelan oil production [2][12]. - The long-term outlook will depend on the control exerted by U.S. proxies in Venezuela, with the exit of Venezuelan production potentially allowing OPEC to increase output, leading to a subsequent decline in oil prices after an initial rise [2][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone and an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][3]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reinforcing economic resilience and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in January, which in turn pushed long-term yields higher [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the start of 2026, with gold and silver initially rising before a sudden drop in gold prices, while physical gold jewelry sales showed a notable increase due to promotions and consumer interest [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, 2026, spot gold prices initially surged, reaching over $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.89%, while spot silver prices peaked at $74.34 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 4% [2]. - However, by the end of the trading day, spot gold fell below $4,310 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 0.21%, and spot silver also retreated below $74 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Despite fluctuations in international gold prices, local jewelry stores in Jinan reported increased foot traffic, driven by promotional activities that attracted consumers [4]. - A specific jewelry store offered a promotional price of 1,188 yuan per gram, along with additional discounts, leading to a surge in consumer purchases [4]. - The popularity of small-weight gold items, such as 20-milligram keychains and 1-gram gold beans, has also been noted, particularly as gifts for the upcoming Spring Festival [6]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Institutions maintain a long-term optimistic view on gold, citing factors such as a weak dollar, a potential interest rate cut cycle, and ongoing geopolitical risks as supportive elements for gold prices [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce in 2026, while JPMorgan has set a target of $5,055 per ounce, indicating strong long-term growth potential for gold [7]. - In contrast, the outlook for silver is more cautious, with concerns about potential price corrections due to recent excessive increases, despite long-term demand from technology and green industries [8].

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold and silver prices declining sharply after a record-breaking performance in 2025, raising concerns about market fragility and future trends [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 4, 2026, gold prices fell from a historical high of $4549.69 per ounce at the end of 2025 to $4332.85 per ounce, a weekly decline of over 4.8% [1]. - Silver prices dropped from $83.943 per ounce to $72.77 per ounce, marking a decline of 13.3% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Data indicates a shift in market sentiment, with speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures remaining at 12.7% of total holdings, but the increase in fund long positions (9241 contracts) was less than the increase in commercial short positions (10348 contracts), leading to a contraction in net long positions [2]. - In the silver market, an increase in arbitrage positions (2118 contracts) suggests that funds are managing volatility through risk hedging rather than outright short selling [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.1% on January 2, 2026, which, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data (256,000 jobs added), raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a baseline forecast predicting that central bank gold purchases and potential Fed rate cuts could drive gold prices to $4900 per ounce [2]. - Morgan Stanley is more optimistic, projecting an average price of $5055 per ounce in Q4 2026 and a long-term target of $6000 per ounce by 2028 [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is expected to experience greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial characteristics, with long-term support from the global green energy transition and tight supply, although short-term technical selling pressure may test the $65 per ounce support level [3]. - Analysts suggest potential future prices of $5000 for gold and $100 for silver, contingent on breaking current resistance levels of $4520 for gold and $78.5 for silver [3].

黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2026.01.05-01.09 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2025年底至2026年初，黄金价格呈现高位回调后企稳的震荡走势。短期 受年末获利了结、交易所上调保证金及白银暴跌情绪传导影响，价格自 高位回落。但中长期上涨核心逻辑未变：美联储降息预期持续、全球央 行购金提供坚实支撑、地缘风险带来避险需求。金价在4300-4350美元/ 盎司（对应国内约970-980元/克）区间获得支撑并反弹。展望后市，尽 管短期可能因政策或技术面承压震荡，但在上述三大支柱支撑下，中长 期上行趋势预计将延续。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位1011－1026元/克，下 方支撑位988－1000元/克，建议逢低买入，注意元旦假期风险。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位980－1000元/克，下方 支撑位950－970元/克， ...

WTI原油： 消息面：美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国对南美某国发起军事行动，并对其领导人实施抓捕，引发全球地缘 政治动荡，市场关注度较高，但因处于周末休市时间，国内外原油期货盘面没有交易，接下来市场将密 切关注周一及以后的原油走势。基本面美国原油产量维持高位，OPEC+产量小幅提高，全球总石油库 存高位，美国商业库存偏低，但炼厂开工率持续提升至高位后，库存转移至成品油持续累库。总体看， 原油供需仍偏向过剩，但美国、委内瑞拉地缘升级，关注短期对原油的利多影响。技术面区间震荡偏 弱。 技术面：技术面来看，日线摆动图表显示原油主趋势为下行，但市场动能正逐步走高。若油价突破 58.88美元，主趋势将转为上行；若跌破56.65美元，市场动能则会转向下行。若油价能站稳57.60美元上 方，意味着日内买方力量进场。上行压力增强的情况下，轻质原油期货有望测试另一关键50%回撤位 58.62美元，以及作为长期趋势指标的50日移动平均线58.77美元。若油价未能突破57.60美元，则释放出 卖方进场信号，价格可能下探56.86美元至56.38美元的次级回撤区间。若该区间缺乏逆势买方支撑，油 价或将跌破56.38美元，届时55.61美 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中金外汇研究） 中金外汇研究 图表1：汇率预测表 (上段为中枢、下段为区间) 资料来源：中金公司研究部 1月重要事件展望 美国经济数据的变化 12月公布的美国非农就业和通胀数据显示美国经济转弱。这令市场开始怀疑美联储的观望态度是否会更早结束。考虑到11月的数据 仍然受到了政府关门的扰动，因此1月初的就业和通胀数据可能更容易改变美联储对于经济的看法和市场的货币政策的定价。考虑到12月份的经济数据可 能因为政府重开而环比改善。因此，1月份经济数据对美元的下行压力可能会有所减轻。 1月美联储会议以及新美联储主席的提名 新年第一次美联储政策会议将于1月末举行，由于在12月的会议中美联储改变了预期管理措辞，因此如果经济数 据不出现太大的下行压力，我们认为美联储大概率会选择维持政策利率不变，以此放慢降息节奏以观察经济数据的变化。我们可观察美联储对于美国经济 和未来利率路径的暗示，如果有迹象显示美联储对于美国经济的自信程度有所下降，那么市场或开启对3月降息的定价，美元的下行压力或进一步加大。 除了月底的会议，新美联储主席的人选或对美元汇率有重要的影响。12月上半，当白宫经济顾问委员会主席凯文哈塞特的 ...