1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating at a high level [11] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [13] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues have pushed non - ferrous metals back to the upper edge of the recent range. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar and supply disturbances support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin support non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are supported by macro factors and supply disturbances; alumina prices are under pressure due to over - supply; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand, and inventory; and so on [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed's potential September rate - cut and the resilience of the US economy boost copper prices. In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly year - on - year. The spot price showed a premium, and the inventory increased. The processing fees of copper ore and blister copper are low, and the raw material supply is tight. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, and some smelters may reduce production [6]. - Main Logic: Macro factors and supply disturbances support copper prices. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation was not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [6]. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and the inventory is low. However, the US copper tariff is not conducive to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of alumina in most regions was stable, while that in Xinjiang decreased. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages. The winning bid price of a tender in Xinjiang decreased, and the railway freight in Shandong changed. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7][8]. - Main Logic: The high - profit margin of smelters has shrunk, but the raw materials are relatively abundant. The operating capacity is at a high level, and the supply is in excess. The warehouse receipts and inbound volume have increased, and the price is expected to be under pressure. However, short - term supply capacity fluctuations and medium - to - long - term mine disturbances need attention [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On September 1, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE decreased. An Indonesian Chinese - funded electrolytic aluminum enterprise plans to put into production. The performance of some listed aluminum companies was released [10][11]. - Main Logic: The short - term US rate - cut expectation increases, and the US dollar is weak. The supply capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot discount is widening. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Outlook: Observe the short - term consumption and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of Baotai ADC12 was stable, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures. The performance of some listed companies was released [11][12]. - Main Logic: The cost is supported by scrap aluminum. The supply decreased during the off - season, and some recycling plants reduced production due to policy changes. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [12][13]. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of zinc showed a discount. The inventory of zinc ingots increased. A smelter in Guangxi plans to stop production for maintenance due to raw material supply interruption [13]. - Main Logic: The macro environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelter's profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - Outlook: In September, the zinc ingot production will remain high, and the demand recovery is limited. The inventory may continue to accumulate. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead were stable. The spot price of lead ingots was stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The traditional peak season of the lead - acid battery market was average, and the transportation was restricted in some regions, affecting the inventory [14][15]. - Main Logic: The spot discount and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable. The supply of lead decreased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. The demand for lead ingots is stable [15][16]. - Outlook: The macro environment is positive. The supply may tighten slightly this week, and the demand is stable. However, the release of accumulated lead ingots after the end of transportation restrictions may put pressure on the price. The lead price is expected to oscillate [16]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Some nickel - related projects and policy changes were reported, such as a new nickel and copper refinery in Tanzania and the change of RKAB approval in Indonesia [16][17][18]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may be loose after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the nickel salt price has declined slightly. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Use a short - term trading strategy [21]. - Outlook: The equity market is strong, and the expected RKAB approval in Indonesia in mid - September will make the nickel price oscillate strongly in the short term. Take a wait - and - see attitude in the long term [21]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a premium. The production and logistics in the nickel industry chain in Indonesia were not affected by the demonstrations [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The stainless steel production increased in August. Pay attention to the demand during the peak season. The inventory decreased slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure has eased [22]. - Outlook: Be wary of the possible expansion of production cuts by steel mills. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight [23]. - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia decreased, and the production and export in Africa are unstable. The supply is tight, supporting the tin price. The terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory reduction is difficult [23]. - Outlook: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of ore. It is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].

2日早盘，两市主要股指震荡回落，沪指一度跌逾1%，深证成指跌超2%，创业板指跌近3%，场内超 4400股飘绿。 银河证券表示，短期预计市场在偏高中枢运行，经历前期上涨行情后，市场或将阶段性呈现震荡整固特 点。但当前市场成交维持活跃，资金面持续驱动叠加政策预期升温，为市场行情提供支撑。同时，外部 环境相对平稳，美联储9月降息预期较高，全球资本流向重塑利好权益市场。A股向上趋势不改，市场 热点仍将处于轮动状态，关注结构性配置机会。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.79%报3844.84点，深证成指跌2.21%，创业板指跌2.9%，沪深北三市合计成交 19307亿元。 盘面上看，半导体、军工、传媒、汽车、医药等板块走低，银行板块逆市拉升，黄金概念、光伏产业链 股活跃。 ...

今天，现货黄金盘中突破3500美元，超过今年4月22日的高点，再创历史新高。截至发稿，报3495.67美元/盎司，日内涨0.55%。 2日，记者查询发现，国内金饰价格也有较大幅度增长，周生生为1041元/克，较前日上涨16元，老庙黄金为1034元/克，单日上涨11元。 | | 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 11 ann | ਜੋ 17 1 1 1 | 田 | | 名称 | 价格 (人民币/克) | | --- | --- | | 足金饰品 | 1034.00 | | 铂金饰品 | 470.00 | | 工艺金条 | 989.00 | | | | 周生生 <how Sang Sang | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周生生 PROMESSA | MINTYGREEN | EMPHASIS | MARCO BICEGO | 劳力士 | 帝舵表 | | | | | | | 金价（人民币 | | 足金饰品(每克) | | 卖品 | | | ¥1041 | | | | 换金价 | | | ¥907 | | | | 换珠宝价 | | ...

【导读】美联储 9 月降息预期升至 90% ，现货黄金站上 3500 美元 / 盎司关口，再创历史 新高 中国基金报记者 张舟 9 月 2 日上午，现货黄金站上 3500 美元 / 盎司关口，最高触及 3508.69 美元 / 盎司，创 历史新高。 | TARGET RATE (BPS) | | | PROBABILITY(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NOW * | 1 DAY 29 8月 2025 | 1 WEEK 25 8月 2025 | 1 MONTH 18月 2025 | | 400-425 | 89.7% | 86.4% | 83.7% | 80.3% | | 425-450 (Current) | 10.3% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 19.7% | | 1 | | * Data as of 1 9月 2025 08:45:29 CT | | | 近几个月来，特朗普一直针对美联储及其主席鲍威尔没有降息进行批评。 本周，投资者重点将关注周五公布的美国 8 月非农就业报告，以进一步推断美联储 9 月议息 会议是否降息。 今年以来，现货 ...

黄金ETF基金(159937)投资于上海黄金交易所黄金现货合约，紧密跟踪主要黄金现货合约的价格变化， 一手(100份)黄金ETF基金对应1克黄金，黄金ETF基金相当于存放于上海黄金交易所的实物黄金的持有 凭证。 黄金ETF基金的优点在于可以免去黄金的保管费、储藏费和保险费等费用，无需担心保管等问题，同时 黄金ETF基金具有低门槛、低成本等优势，支持T+0交易，资金使用效率高。此外，黄金ETF基金联接 基金(A:002610，C:002611)为场外投资者布局黄金提供了工具。 法拉利老了还是法拉利！周二亚洲交易时段，金价连续第六天延续上涨趋势，触及历史新高，突破3500 美元/盎司的心理关口。 市场分析指出在对美联储9月降息押注升温的背景下，黄金购买兴趣仍未减弱，加之美国关税的不确定 性、对美联储独立性的担忧以及地缘政治等因素都对黄金有利。 黄金ETF基金(159937)连涨四年，年内涨幅29.78%，2022年以来涨超110%。 在全球经济与地缘政治不确定性背景下，黄金成为热门投资品种。国内资金也在借道ETF持续买入黄 金，黄金ETF基金(159937)年内吸金超86亿元，最新规模283亿元，资金净流入额和规 ...

南华金属日报:贵金属强势归来 短期关注美经济数据干扰 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月2日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场延续上周五强势，尽管美国市场因劳动节假日成交清淡，但亚盘买盘积极活跃，美指则偏弱 运行。目前市场焦点在美联储降息预期以及美联储人事调整和独立性问题上。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收 报3545.8美元/盎司，+0.84%，创历史新高；美白银2512合约收报于41.725美元/盎司，+2.46%，现货创 2011年来新高。SHFE黄金2510主力合约收800.56元/克，+2.08%；SHFE白银2510合约收9775元/千克， +4.16%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期保持平稳。据CME"美联储 观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息 25个基点的概率为89.6%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累 计降息50个基点的概率47.9%；美联储12月维持利率不变的概率1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为13.2%，累 计降息50个基点的概率为4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown significant recovery, moving away from the traditional "summer lull" due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Factors Supporting Gold Price Recovery - **Macroeconomic Expectations**: There is a renewed market expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [2]. - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Economic and political risks in various global regions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital inflows [2]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Several central banks are increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [2]. Impact of Holidays on Gold Price Trends - **Market Liquidity**: During holidays, market liquidity typically decreases, which can lead to three potential scenarios affecting gold prices: - **Increased Volatility**: Low trading volumes can cause significant price fluctuations in response to large orders [4]. - **Delayed Market Response**: Important economic data or news released during holidays may not be immediately reflected in the market, leading to concentrated reactions when trading resumes [4]. - **Trend Continuation with Slower Pace**: If gold prices are in a strong upward trend before the holiday, the pace may slow down, but the overall trend direction is unlikely to change [4]. Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Fluctuations - **Focus on Long-Term Trends**: The core factors influencing the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices are primarily the monetary policy directions of major economies and changes in real interest rate expectations, while short-term holiday effects mainly influence trading rhythm rather than trend direction [5]. - **Investment Strategies**: - Monitor market sentiment and position adjustments after the holiday [5]. - Keep an eye on key events such as Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, as these will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policies and gold prices [5]. - Consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with potential short-term volatility following the holiday [5].

见习记者丨李益文 刘夏菲 编辑丨叶映橙 刘雪莹 9月2日，A股指数走弱，截至10:48，共4600只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额连续第70个交易日突破1万 亿，较昨日此时有所缩量。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3854.87 | 12676.40 | 1551.08 | | -20.66 -0.53% -152.56 -1.19% -17.55 -1.12% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1347.60 | 2927.69 | 6146.80 | | -9.54 -0.70% -28.68 -0.97% -78.71 -1.26% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4513.79 | 6991.88 | 5390.53 | | -9.93 -0.22% -118.41 -1.67% -28.00 -0.52% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7318.11 | 5568.56 | 5510.91 | | -183.04 -2.44% | -39.72 ...

见习记者丨李益文 刘夏菲 编辑丨叶映橙 刘雪莹 9月2日，A股指数走弱，截至10:48，共4600只个股下跌。 沪深两市成交额连续第70个交易日突破1万亿，较昨日此时有所缩量。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3854.87 | 12676.40 | 1551.08 | | -20.66 -0.53% -152.56 -1.19% -17.55 -1.12% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1347.60 | 2927.69 | 6146.80 | | -9.54 -0.70% -28.68 -0.97% -78.71 -1.26% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4513.79 | 6991.88 | 5390.53 | | -9.93 -0.22% -118.41 -1.67% -28.00 -0.52% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7318.11 | 5568.56 | 5510.91 | | -183.04 -2.44% | -39.72 ...