近期，围绕格陵兰岛主权问题，美欧关系趋于紧张。虽然美方暂缓关税措施使得市场紧张情绪有所缓 和，但美国外交与贸易政策的反复冲击美元信用，同时日元近期走强也对美元构成下行压力，美元持续 走弱。短期来看，铂价有望延续偏强震荡走势，但短线波动风险或加大。 地缘局势紧张 2026年以来，全球地缘局势持续动荡。美国与委内瑞拉的冲突成为开端，格陵兰岛局势及伊朗局势也引 发全球投资者的关注，避险再度成为市场交易焦点。 此外，特朗普政府加大了对美联储的施压力度。美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗普 多次抱怨美联储降息太慢且幅度太小，拖累美国经济表现。近期，美联储新任主席人选生变，贝莱德高 管里德尔已成为最有可能接替鲍威尔的人选，他既支持降低利率，又不被广泛视为威胁美联储独立性。 尽管美联储短期趋于谨慎，但长期宽松预期难改。贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金继续配置铂族金 属，铂价中长期仍有上涨空间。 基本面处于供不应求状态 近几年，全球铂的总供应保持在220~260吨，但整体呈现下降态势。世界铂金投资协会（WPIC）数据 显示，2024年全球铂的总供应为227.4吨，较2021年的258.4吨显著下降。铂的供应主 ...

Group 1 - The US Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly plummeted to its lowest level since May 2014, falling from a revised 94.2 to 84.5 in January, which was below all economists' forecasts [4][2] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to high inflation pressures, concerns over job growth, and geopolitical tensions, with consumers frequently mentioning rising prices of oil, gas, and essential goods [6][4] - The index measuring expectations for the next six months dropped to its lowest level since April of the previous year, while the current conditions index fell to its lowest point in nearly five years [4][6] Group 2 - The drop in consumer confidence has reinforced market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a decrease in short-term Treasury yields and a steepening of the yield curve [8][11] - The gap between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields widened to its largest level in nearly a decade, benefiting traders betting on this spread [11] - Despite the decline in consumer confidence, some analysts believe that the upcoming tax refunds may boost household purchasing power, suggesting that the drop in confidence may be overstated [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected collapse of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 to its lowest level since May 2014 has significantly impacted market confidence regarding the labor market and growth prospects, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][7]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Consumer Confidence Index dropped from a revised 94.2 in the previous month to 84.5 in January, marking the lowest level since May 2014 and falling below all economists' forecasts [7]. - The expectations index for the next six months fell to its lowest level since April of the previous year, while the current situation index reached its lowest point in nearly five years [7]. - The proportion of consumers who believe jobs are hard to find has reached its highest level since February 2021, while the perception of job availability has worsened, narrowing the gap between these two metrics to the worst reading in years [8]. Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Confidence - High prices for oil, gas, and everyday goods, along with concerns about the job market and healthcare, have been frequently mentioned by consumers in the survey responses [8]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland, have also contributed to the decline in consumer confidence, with the survey cutoff date being January 16 [8]. - Despite the decline in confidence, some analysts believe that upcoming tax refunds will enhance household purchasing power, suggesting that the drop in confidence may be overstated and could rebound soon [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The drop in consumer confidence has led to a rise in short-term Treasury prices, reactivating the steepening trend of the yield curve that had stalled earlier this month [9]. - The two-year Treasury yield fell over 3 basis points from its daily high in response to the consumer confidence index drop, while longer-term yields remained higher due to inflation and increased borrowing expectations [9][13]. - The yield spread between two-year and ten-year Treasuries widened to its largest level in nearly a decade, benefiting traders betting on this strategy [13].

转自：期货日报 近期，围绕格陵兰岛主权问题，美欧关系趋于紧张。虽然美方暂缓关税措施使得市场紧张情绪有所缓 和，但美国外交与贸易政策的反复冲击美元信用，同时日元近期走强也对美元构成下行压力，美元持续 走弱。短期来看，铂价有望延续偏强震荡走势，但短线波动风险或加大。 地缘局势紧张 2026年以来，全球地缘局势持续动荡。美国与委内瑞拉的冲突成为开端，格陵兰岛局势及伊朗局势也引 发全球投资者的关注，避险再度成为市场交易焦点。 从美联储官员近期表态来看，对通胀最大的分歧在于关税影响是否结束。核心商品通胀保持稳定表明关 税所引发的通胀更多是"一次性效应"。核心服务通胀虽然维持增长，但没有加速反弹迹象，对美联储下 一步降息不构成阻力。目前，利率市场显示，美联储2026年1月降息概率为5%，3月降息概率为30%。 在2025年12月就业和通胀数据都偏低的情况下，2026年一季度美联储政策利率预期还有向下博弈的空 间，这对美元利率构成利空。 此外，特朗普政府加大了对美联储的施压力度。美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗普 多次抱怨美联储降息太慢且幅度太小，拖累美国经济表现。近期，美联储新任主席人选生变，贝莱德高 ...

1月26日，现货黄金价格强势突破5000美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及5111美元/盎司，实现连续六个交易日上涨。现货白银同样涨势如虹，在突破100美元/盎 司关口后攀升至110美元/盎司附近。据多家机构分析，价格很可能继续上涨。 技术分析显示，黄金已连续六个月上涨，2026年迄今涨幅达18%，而2025年全年涨幅高达65%。本轮上涨动力源于多重因素共振：美联储降息预期、格陵兰 地缘政治紧张局势升级、特朗普关税威胁、美元走弱，以及各国央行大幅减持美债转向黄金储备。 "现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司关口，这是一种全新形态的避风港。"Cashify Gold（知名国际加密货币交易所）首席执行官雅各布·巴托谢克指出，这一纪 录是国际市场对达沃斯经济论坛上所传出信号的直接回应——投资者正在对特朗普相关风险进行定价，无论是其提出的可能动摇联合国根基的"和平委员 会"计划，还是收购格陵兰岛的提议。 | 机构 | 目标价格 | 大体时间 | 关键驱动因素 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高盛 | 5400美元 | 2026年12月 | 央行买入,私人资产多元化 | | 美国银行 | 6000美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have recently reached historical highs around 5111 but have experienced corrections, with fluctuations influenced by global economic recovery, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The market sentiment is mixed, with support for gold stemming from ongoing economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures in some countries, while the strength of the US dollar and unclear timelines for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts pose challenges [1] - Technically, gold maintains a bullish trend on the daily chart, but momentum has weakened after consecutive gains, indicating a potential for short-term corrections [1] Group 2 - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 5010-5015 and 4985-4990, with a strategy focused on buying on dips rather than assuming a trend reversal during corrections [3] - The recommended trading strategy includes light buying at 5010-5015, with additional purchases at 4990-4995, setting a stop-loss at 4986, and targeting levels between 5090-5100 [3]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月27日，ATFX：1月19日至今，美元遭疯狂抛售。起因是特朗普叫嚣夺取格林兰岛，对欧洲八国加征 关税进行威胁。达沃斯论坛上加拿大总理卡尼演讲引发欧洲"战略自主"的考量，抛售美元、美债、美股 成为欧洲金融机构的共识。 1月24日国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布数据：美元在全球外汇储备中占比为56.92% ，跌破60%，创数 十年新低。 1月19日以前，特朗普曾掳走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗、干预伊朗和以色列之间的冲突，但美元指数在这段 时间走势平稳，并未出现大规模抛售。格陵兰岛问题激化后，美元指数才显著下跌，黄金白银也在这段 时间疯狂上涨。据此判断，欧洲金融机构是本轮黄金美元走势的幕后推手。 ▲ATFX图 国际关系和地缘问题导致的美元贬值，是否具有持续性，取决于美国的经济数据表现如何。上图是美国 非农就业人口和核心CPI年率叠加图。两条数据曲线都呈现出下降趋势，并且降幅不断收窄。2024年年 中以来，两条曲线呈现出横向变动特征，意味着美国的宏观经济已经进入稳定期。基于委内瑞拉、格陵 兰岛、伊朗的问题，并未对美国经济数据造成实质性冲击。我们倾向于认为，美元指数的下跌为中短期 表现，有超跌迹象 ...

首席品牌评论 . 以下文章来源于首席品牌评论 ，作者首席品牌评论 热门品牌案例，专业深度评论。在这里，读懂品牌之道！ ------------------------------ 作者： 首席品牌评论 来源： 首席品牌评论 原以为房价是结婚第一道坎，没想到栽在了三金上。 2025年，全球贵金属市场迎来了一场史无前例的牛市狂欢，黄金年涨幅突破70%，白银飙升超 170%。 进入2026年，这波涨势丝毫没有减缓的迹象，最近国内主流黄金品牌的足金饰品克价已突破1500 元大关。 在这场由全球经济情绪主导的涨价潮里，投资者忙着追高获利，央行忙着增持囤货， 而最被动的， 却是那些正筹备婚礼、被"三金五金"习俗绑定的年轻人 。 他们既无法像投资者那样低买高卖，也不能像央行那样不计成本，只能眼睁睁看着原本象征幸福的 仪式感，变成压在钱包上的沉重负担，成了这轮金价飙升中第一批的受害者。 这轮金价暴涨绝非偶然，三重底层逻辑共同将黄金推上了历史高位。 其一，地缘局势的"多点开花"让黄金的避险属性被无限放大 ，中东局势紧绷、美欧贸易摩擦升 级，资金纷纷涌入这个终极安全港，推动金价单日暴涨的场景屡见不鲜。 其二，美联储降息预期与自身 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, with employment sub - index hitting a new low since last year but still expanding for six consecutive months, and output reaching the highest level since August 2025. The EU Commission plans to extend the suspension period of anti - tariff measures against the U.S. [2] - For copper, the dollar index is under pressure, which is positive for the non - ferrous sector. However, the spot market has sufficient supply, demand is cautious, and LME inventory accumulation may suppress prices. Short - term copper prices will fluctuate. [2] - For aluminum, the macro - sentiment warms up, but industrial drivers are limited, and domestic inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For zinc, geopolitical tensions are rising, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The domestic processing fee is at a low level, smelting profit is inverted, and production is expected to decline. Zinc prices will follow the sector to fluctuate. [2] - For nickel, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is stable. Indonesia's nickel - related policies and supply - side disturbances may affect prices. Short - term nickel prices are high, and in the long - term, high global inventories may suppress prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term. [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal futures prices showed various changes, such as copper at $12,921.5 with a 2.28% change and nickel at $18,705 with a 3.71% change. SHFE prices also had different changes, like aluminum at 23,990 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change and nickel at 145,380 yuan/ton with a 2.81% change. [1] Inventory Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal inventories and their changes varied. For example, LME copper inventory was 170,525 tons with a 26.05% change, and LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons with an 11.43% change. SHFE inventories also had different trends, such as SHFE aluminum inventory increasing from 141,725 tons to 197,053 tons with a 6.01% change. [1][2] Ascending and Descending Water Indicators - LME and SHFE non - ferrous metal ascending and descending water showed different changes. For example, SHFE copper's ascending and descending water changed from - 66.1 yuan/ton to 16.78 yuan/ton with an - 82.8 change. [2] Price - to - Price Ratio Indicators - The current price - to - price ratios of non - ferrous metals and their changes were presented. For example, the copper price - to - price ratio was 7.84 with a 7.81% change, and the zinc price - to - price ratio was 7.51 with a - 1.05% change. [2] Near - month to Continuous Third - month Spread Indicators - The current spreads of SHFE non - ferrous metals and their changes were shown. For example, the copper spread changed from - 290 yuan/ton to - 950 yuan/ton with a - 660 change. [2]

据报道，面对明尼苏达州移民突袭致两名美国公民死亡的全国性哗然，美国总统特朗普宣布调整当前的 高压遣返政策。他已派遣立场相对温和的"边境事务主管"汤姆.霍曼前往明尼阿波利斯缓和局势，并分 别与州长、市长通话，考虑展开独立调查并缩减联邦特工部署规模。白宫暗示，若地方配合执法，将撤 走部分边境巡逻人员。 摘要今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1144.96元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报 1137.60元/克，涨幅0.31%，最高触及1148.03元/克，最低下探1125.00元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏 向看涨走势。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1144.96元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1137.60元/ 克，涨幅0.31%，最高触及1148.03元/克，最低下探1125.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 【要闻速递】 然而，政策转向面临阻力。霍曼虽被视为"温和派"，但仍支持大规模遣返;白宫坚称信任强硬派官员， 并将危机责任归咎于地方"煽动者"。分析指出，特朗普正陷入两难：既要回应民意压力，又难以背离其 核心议程。 此举被视为特朗普对其激进移 ...