Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For commodity futures, maintain a bearish outlook on coking coal, soda ash, and Shanghai nickel [1]. - The A - share market is expected to maintain a pattern of sector rotation and bullish oscillations before further policy incentives [1]. - The bond market is likely to remain range - bound, with the current liquidity environment providing some support, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1]. - Gold and silver are expected to oscillate bullishly, and strategies such as buying on dips based on long - term moving averages or holding short positions in out - of - the - money put options are recommended [4]. - Copper, aluminum, and nickel in the non - ferrous metals sector are expected to oscillate within a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [4]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate bearishly due to limited improvement in fundamentals and oversupply [4]. - Silicon energy is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell put options as the current price is unlikely to drop significantly [6]. - The black metal sector is expected to oscillate, and different strategies are recommended for different varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore [6]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate bearishly due to supply - demand imbalances [8]. - Soda ash and float glass are expected to be bearish, and corresponding short - position strategies are recommended [8]. - Crude oil is expected to oscillate bearishly, but there is a potential risk of a sharp increase, and it is recommended to buy call options for protection [8]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate, with limited upside potential due to increasing supply [10]. - Polyolefins are expected to decline due to increasing supply pressure [10]. - Cotton is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to maintain the previous long - allocation strategy and wait for the outcome of trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate bearishly due to an oversupply situation [10]. Summary by Catalog Stock Index - On Wednesday, the A - share market oscillated upward, with the ChiNext leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly to 1.29 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.45 trillion yuan). Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - bank finance led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and communication industries declined slightly [1]. - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation reached a framework for implementing the Geneva consensus, with limited incremental positive news. The recent trading volume of the A - share market has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, making it difficult to support continuous market growth. Before further policy incentives, the market is expected to maintain a pattern of sector rotation and bullish oscillations [1]. Treasury Bond - Yesterday, the bond market opened higher and then oscillated bullishly, with the TL contract remaining stronger. The Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the US have reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open market, and the capital cost remained loose, with DR001 below 1.4%. Supported by the central bank's announced repurchase volume, the bond market sentiment was relatively positive. Overall, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound [1]. Gold and Silver - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended with details unknown, and the market has different interpretations. In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI rebounded but was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The Middle East situation has become tense. In the short term, safe - haven sentiment and the long - term cycle are favorable for gold prices. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options. After the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, silver will generally follow the trend of gold prices [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, Shanghai copper oscillated during the morning session and opened lower at night, then oscillated horizontally. The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The US dollar index weakened again, falling below 98.5. The supply of the mining end remains tight, and domestic smelting enterprises are under increasing cost pressure. Affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season, the overall demand is cautious. The macro environment remains highly uncertain, and prices are still affected by market sentiment and capital in the short term [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, the alumina price remained low, and Shanghai aluminum trended strongly, rising 0.4% at night. The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The US dollar index weakened again, falling below 98.5. The ore disturbance in Guinea is unlikely to end in the short term, but there is no progress for now. The domestic and foreign ore inventories are still abundant, and the supply concern is limited. The previously reduced production capacity is gradually resuming, increasing the supply pressure. Although the demand for Shanghai aluminum is uncertain, the current inventory is at a low level, and the supply of scrap aluminum in the market has tightened further, increasing the concern about the supply of primary aluminum. Overall, the supply of alumina remains highly uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The expectation of production resumption increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to operate close to the cost line. Shanghai aluminum has clear supply constraints and low inventory, providing strong support at the bottom [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian mining end. The nickel - iron production capacity is abundant, and the supply is loose, but downstream stainless - steel plants are reducing production due to losses, putting pressure on the nickel - iron price. The intermediate product project has a cost advantage, and the production capacity and output continue to grow. The demand for nickel from the new energy sector is limited by the weakening market share of ternary batteries, and intermediate products continue to flow into the production of refined nickel. The operating rate of China's leading refined - nickel enterprises remains high, and the oversupply situation continues. The Philippines has removed the original ore export ban clause, alleviating the concern about nickel ore exports. Coupled with the expected seasonal increase in Philippine ore supply, the fundamental pressure on nickel has further increased, and the price is under downward pressure. However, on the one hand, the market had previously expected that the Philippine nickel ore ban would be difficult to implement, and on the other hand, Indonesia has a clear intention to strengthen nickel ore management, providing some support for the nickel ore price. The odds of a unilateral short - selling strategy are limited, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in call options [4]. Lithium Carbonate - After the lithium price rebounded from an oversold level, the actual improvement in fundamentals is still limited. Policy - driven consumption growth in the terminal new - energy vehicle market, but the inventory of battery cells in the intermediate link and the production schedule of cathode enterprises have not increased significantly, and the demand transmission efficiency is not ideal. In the past two weeks, the enthusiasm of lithium salt smelters for production has been boosted, and the expectation of production reduction has continued to be disappointed. The inventory of upstream smelters is at a high level, and the loose supply situation suppresses the rebound space of the lithium price [4]. Silicon Energy - The number of operating silicon furnaces increased last week, and there is still an expected increase in the future in Yunnan and Sichuan. The downstream demand is weak, with the output of organic silicon and polysilicon remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past two years. Technically, the July contract has not effectively broken below the 7000 - yuan integer mark and has rebounded for several consecutive days, showing signs of stopping the decline. Overall, the supply is slightly more abundant than the demand, but it is unlikely that the price will drop significantly at the current level. It is recommended to sell put options [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar rebounded steadily, with prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou increasing by 20, 10, and 10 respectively. The small - sample trading volume of construction steel decreased to 9.98 tons. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The fundamentals of construction steel are relatively clear, with the terminal demand declining seasonally. Long - process steel mills are still profitable and reducing production slowly, while short - process steel mills in the southwest region have started to avoid peak production. It is expected that the inventory of rebar in the Steel Union sample will continue to decrease this week, but the decline rate will slow down. The raw material price is firm in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be loose. The rebar futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil increased steadily, with prices in Shanghai and Lecong increasing by 20 and 10 respectively. The spot trading was average. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The demand for plates is relatively resilient, while the demand for construction steel is seasonally weakening. In the case of good profitability, there is no clear constraint on the supply of blast - furnace hot metal. The overall inventory reduction speed of steel products has gradually slowed down, and some plate varieties are accumulating inventory passively. The raw material price is firm in the short term, but the coal mine is still accumulating inventory passively, and the long - term supply of iron ore is expected to be loose. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to continue holding the previously recommended short positions in the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract and set a stop - loss line [6]. Iron Ore - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The static supply - demand structure of iron ore is relatively healthy. However, the steel consumption will decline seasonally, and the domestic daily hot - metal production has reached its peak. The supply of imported iron ore is expected to increase significantly in June, mainly due to the seasonal shipping pattern of foreign mines and the new mine投产 plan. It is expected that the supply - demand structure of iron ore will shift from relatively tight to slightly loose in June. Considering that the valuation of iron ore in the black chain is relatively high and the long - term supply of iron ore is clearly in a loose pattern, it is still believed that the probability of a long - term price correction for iron ore is high. It is recommended that cautious investors continue to hold the iron ore 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can patiently hold short positions in the I2601 contract and set a stop - loss line [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Due to factors such as the traditional safety production month, some coal mines in the production area have reduced production, and the marginal supply of raw coal has tightened. However, steel and coking enterprises have slowed down the production rhythm and raw material procurement due to the off - season expectation. The inventory of coking coal mines is at a historical high, and the situation of pit - mouth auctions is difficult to improve. The supply - demand imbalance is still obvious, and the coal price has returned to the downward trend [8]. Coke - The central environmental protection inspection team has entered multiple northern provinces, and there is an expectation of production restrictions on coke ovens. The terminal steel consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand fulfillment expectation is weakening. Steel mills continue to adopt a low - inventory turnover strategy for raw material procurement, and the pressure on coking plants to reduce inventory has increased. The demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate, and the coke price is difficult to reverse the weak situation [8]. Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The old production line of Haihua was ignited, and the daily production of soda ash increased slightly to 10.74 tons yesterday. The demand has no bright spots, and the supply is more abundant than the weekly demand. The high inventory of soda ash plants is still difficult to digest. The inventory in the intermediate delivery warehouse decreased by 1.8 tons to 32.71 tons. The soda ash price lacks the momentum to rebound. It is recommended to patiently hold the previously recommended short positions in the soda ash 09 - contract, set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance. New positions can be shorted on rallies based on the cash cost of ammonia - soda or the selling - delivery cost (1280 - 1290) [8]. Float Glass - Affected by factors such as seasonal patterns, the downward cycle of real - estate completion, and the poor sustainability of speculative demand, the demand for float glass is expected to weaken marginally in the off - season. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio in the four major production areas remained at 98%. The overall supply is stable, with the weekly production basically maintaining at 110 tons. It is expected that the inventory of glass plants will decrease slightly by 10,000 heavy boxes this week, but it is difficult to digest the high inventory. Without incremental real - estate stabilization policies or further expansion of the cold - repair scale by glass plants, the glass price does not have the conditions for a bottom - reversal. For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the glass FG509 - contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance. For the combination strategy, based on the expectation that industry losses will force glass plants to carry out cold - repair, it is recommended to patiently hold a small - position long position in the glass 01 - contract and a short position in the soda ash 01 - contract (the latest spread is - 135), or the glass 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy (the latest spread is - 60) [8]. Crude Oil - Geopolitically, US media reported that Trump has lost hope that Iran will agree to terminate all uranium - enrichment activities in the nuclear agreement. Late at night, the US announced the evacuation of personnel from the Middle East, further increasing the market's concern about a hot war in the Middle East. However, from the Sunday agenda, this evacuation is more likely to be a bargaining chip for pressure negotiation. From a rational perspective, the probability of a hot war in the Middle East is still low. Overall, the market is highly concerned about the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and there is a risk of an unexpected sharp increase in oil prices. It is recommended to buy call options to protect existing positions [8]. Methanol - This week, the arrival volume reached 46 tons (+13 tons), a two - year high. The arrival volume in Jiangsu increased by 7 tons, and that in South China increased by 3.5 tons. As a result, the port inventory increased by 7.1 tons to 65.22 tons, showing a significant increase for the fourth consecutive week. It is expected that the monthly import volume of China will remain above 130 tons in June and July. After the spot price rebounded last week, the trading volume improved significantly, resulting in only a 2% increase in the production enterprise inventory and a 15% increase in the order backlog. However, with the operating rate approaching 90%, the production enterprise inventory will continue to accumulate under the high - production background. The supply is increasing, and the rebound height of methanol is limited [8]. Polyolefins - The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, and the negotiation between the US and Iran broke down, causing the international crude oil price to rise significantly. This week, the spot trading of polyolefins improved, and downstream and mid - stream enterprises actively replenished inventory, resulting in a decrease in the production enterprise inventory. The inventory of PE decreased by 1.74%, and that of PP decreased by 3.93%, but both remained at a relatively high level this year. The social inventory did not change significantly, with PE increasing by 0.57% and PP decreasing by 4.25%, both remaining at a medium level this year. The operating rate rebounded rapidly this week, and it is expected that the production volume will return to a high level in July. Coupled with the new production capacity put into operation in the second quarter, the supply pressure will increase again, and the polyolefin price is likely to decline [10]. Cotton - In terms of supply, the growth of domestic cotton needs to pay attention to the impact of high temperatures in the short term, and the annual production is expected to decline slightly year - on - year. The weather in the US cotton - growing area is poor, and the planting area is expected to decline significantly. In terms of demand, according to a May survey by BCO on textile enterprises, the overall operating rate of enterprises rebounded slightly in May, the cotton consumption increased, and the enterprise orders were concentrated within one month. In May, most enterprises received more orders, but the order volume was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream market was stable and improving in May, showing overall resilience. The terminal clothing consumption remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and it is still necessary to wait for the outcome of the trade negotiation. Overall, there is no clear directional negative factor in the short - term fundamentals. It is recommended to maintain the previous long - allocation strategy and wait for the clarity of the trade negotiation situation [10]. Rubber - The Sino - US negotiation has made phased progress, and the macro sentiment has eased slightly. However, the fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to maintain a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The terminal automobile market is facing an off - season test, and the inventory of finished products of tire enterprises is at a high level. The rubber - tapping progress in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber forests is smooth, and there is no negative impact on the weather conditions in the producing areas. The expectation of an increase in raw material supply is gradually being realized,

【冠通研究】 多方博弈，铜价震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 【策略分析】 沪铜日内承压运行。尽管美国总统特朗普的贸易战加剧了价格压力，但美国 5 月未 季调 CPI 年率升至 2.4%，高于 4 月份 2.3%的增幅，但不及分析师预测的 2.5%。市场预期 美联储未来一年将累计降息 77 个基点，此前预期未来一年降息 67 个基点，到 12 月降息 42 个基点。交易员加大对美联储 9 月开始降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次。供给 端，精铜矿港口库存大幅去化，铜原料端供应趋紧，截至 2025 年 6 月 9 日，现货粗炼费 为-42.9 美元/千吨，现货精炼费为-4.28 美分/磅，铜精矿目前供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏 损加深，冶炼厂面临减量减产风险。中国 5 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量锐减至 42.7 万吨， 环比下降 2.5%，进口量减少而国内库存去化停滞，市场需求端环比减弱。进入需求淡季 阶段，表观消费量减少，5 月预计继续处于下降周期内。下游铜箔、铜管等开工率均环比 出现下降，下游终端虽有韧性,但对铜向上传导力度不足，需求依然是制约铜价上涨的重 要原因。整体来说，美国经济数据助推美联储降 ...

报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 785.16 | 7.62 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8819 | -83 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 172351 | 3606 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 432670 | -22562 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 142292 | 7939 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 117220 | -12800 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 17847 | 30 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1226150 | -3666 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 781.8 | 6.6 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8807 | -63 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元 ...

美国疲软的通胀数据激励美联储降息预期，美元进一步走弱，带动台币出现类似5月初暴涨以来的快速 升势，终场创三年来最强收盘价。台币兑美元一度升值近1%至29.625，触及5月5日以来盘中最强，收 盘升幅缩减至0.88%，报29.660。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock technology sector has regained momentum after a significant pullback in April, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing, policy support for Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Index Comparison - The Hang Seng Technology Index consists of 30 selected Hong Kong-listed companies highly related to technology, with a weight limit of 8% for non-foreign companies and 4% for foreign companies, adjusted quarterly [2] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index reflects the performance of 30 Hong Kong-listed companies related to technology that can be traded through Stock Connect, with a weight limit of 10% per stock and adjusted semi-annually [2] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The Hang Seng Technology Index includes approximately 17% automotive weight and about 10% in tourism, home appliances, and pharmaceutical stocks, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index excludes these consumer sectors, focusing more on software services, information technology equipment, and semiconductors [4] Group 3: Concentration of Weighting Stocks - As of June 9, the top ten stocks in the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index accounted for 76% of its total weight, higher than the 71% concentration in the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating greater potential for returns but also higher volatility risk [6][10] Group 4: QDII Quota Utilization - The Hang Seng Technology Index includes non-Stock Connect stocks, which may face quota restrictions when investing through QDII channels, while all stocks in the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index can be traded through Stock Connect, enhancing convenience [9] Group 5: Historical Performance - Over the past year, the Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a return of 44%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index, due to its higher concentration, achieved a return of 51.4%, with both indices exhibiting high volatility around 40% [10]

6月12日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续强势，开盘即跳涨至3364.1美元/盎司，随后快速冲高至3377.74美元/盎司的本周新高， 较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.63%，日内最低触及3356美元，当前交投于3375美元附近。伦敦银现同步走强，最高触及 36.371美元/盎司，现报36.35美元，维持在36美元关键支撑上方。 | 昨收 | 3355.34 最高 | | 3377.74 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3357.29 最低 | | 3356.04 | | 买入 | 3375.53 | 卖出 | 3375.73 | 一、基本面驱动：地缘风险与政策预期双重引擎 地缘政治风险白热化 俄乌冲突持续升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰国防工业发动集群打击，乌克兰多地基础设施严重受损，波兰紧急部署战机应对边 境威胁。与此同时，中东局势因沙特推动巴勒斯坦建国会议复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙加剧，地区安全不确定 性直接推升避险买需。世界银行最新报告将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.3%，并警告贸易壁垒和关税上调可能导致 全球贸易停滞，进一步强化黄金的避险属性。 美联储降息预期升温 美国5月CP ...

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for May increased by only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, while the annual CPI recorded 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5% [1] - The lower-than-expected inflation data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a short-term spike in gold prices, which broke above 3360 [1] - The COMEX gold price rose by 127.8 USD to 3376.10 USD per ounce since early May, supported by increased demand from central banks and investors [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry faces limited supply elasticity due to a production cap of 45 million tons and policy constraints, while demand is driven by the new energy and home appliance sectors [1] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to policy adjustments and new application scenarios, such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, leveraging China's global advantages in production and technology [1]

沪金涨 0.42 %，报 780.36 元/克，沪银跌 0.75 %，报 8830.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 1.26 %， 报 3385.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.48 %，报 36.44 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.41%，美元指数报 98.46 ； 贵金属日报 2025-06-12 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国财政赤字水平维持在高位，美国财政的无序扩张持续冲击美元信用，对金银价 格形成支撑。 美国五月预算赤字为 3160 亿美元，其中预算支出创下了历史上的单月最高水平。受到特朗普 政府关税政策的影响，美国海关税收在五月份达到 230 亿美元，较去年同期增长 170 亿美元， 上涨幅度接近四倍，但仍难以覆盖当前规模庞大的财政赤字水平。美国财政部长贝森特表态， 他预计本财年赤字与 GDP 比值将介于 6.5%至 6.7%，将连续三个财年超过 6%。当前美国赤字情 况支持黄金价格走强。 而美国 ...

尽管通胀数据温和，但分析人士警告，特朗普政府近期推行的关税政策可能在未来几个月推高通胀。5 月CPI上涨的主要驱动力来自住房成本（主要是租金），上涨0.3%，而食品价格也出现0.3%的反弹。然 而，服务价格的涨势放缓以及需求的不确定性，暂时抑制了通胀的上行压力。荷兰国际集团首席国际经 济学家James Knightley表示，美国经济以服务业为主，劳动力成本的放缓将有助于缓解关税带来的通胀 影响。不过，大型家电价格上涨4.3%和玩具价格上涨1.3%，已显示出关税对部分商品价格的直接推升 作用。即将于周四公布的生产者物价指数（PPI）数据，将为通胀趋势提供进一步线索。 特朗普近期表示，对通过谈判对伊朗核计划施加新限制的前景越来越没有信心。与此同时，伊朗国防部 长纳西尔扎德警告，若核谈判失败且伊朗遭到攻击，美国在中东的军事基地将成为报复目标。伊朗外交 部副部长塔赫特-拉万奇透露，伊朗正在为第六轮核谈判制定新提案，但谈判前景并不乐观。以色列国 防军已进入高度戒备状态，以防冲突升级。这些不确定性令市场避险情绪迅速升温，黄金作为传统避险 资产的吸引力大幅增强.地缘政治风险的进一步升级体现在美国对中东地区军事部署的调整上 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据法新社报道，美国及伊朗双方6月11日均 就美伊核谈判作出最新表态。美国总统特朗普在当日播出的采 访中表示，他对与伊朗达成核协议"信心减弱"。与此同时， 伊朗6月11日则表示，若谈判失败，美伊之间爆发冲突，伊朗将 以美国在中东地区的军事基地作为目标；美国能源信息署数据 显示；美国商业原油库存量4.32415亿桶，比前一周下降364.4 万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.29804亿桶，比前一周增长150.4万 桶；美国原油日均产量1342.8万桶，比前周日均产量增加2万 桶。评：美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级推动隔夜原油大涨。 整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增速下降对短期油 价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产量落实情况。短期低位短多思路。 【短评-黄金】美国和伊拉克消息人士周三表示，美国正准 备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的 军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。评：地缘风险增加， 原油上涨，避险情绪助推黄金上涨，但是美联储降息预期增 加，降息预期利多白银大于利多黄金，资金关注点转为白银。 黄金、白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路对 待。关注关 ...