Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand conditions. It is expected to have an overall range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of low valuation, short - term high supply, and cost support, with a mixed long - short situation [2][5]. - The global soybean import cost is currently stable, but there is a risk of unexpected decline due to potential trade war easing or macro - impacts [3]. - The global soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, while the domestic soybean meal market has cost support due to procurement issues related to Sino - US tariffs [5]. - The EPA policy has increased the annual operating center of the oil market, but there are still negative factors such as high production in Southeast Asian palm oil regions, and the market is expected to be volatile [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August [16]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the short - term rebound space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. - The pig market has a certain degree of support in the short term, but there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Catalog Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean price slightly declined. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans increased by 4% to 70%. The North American weather is good, and the potential impact of the trade war on exports continues to put pressure on US soybeans. However, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and recent sales of old - crop soybeans and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean meal futures slightly rose on Monday. According to MYSTEEL statistics, last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2954 million tons, and this week, it is expected to be 2.3803 million tons. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 886,200 (+64,000) tons, and the port soybean inventory was 8.231 (+0.343) million tons [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is currently oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where long - short factors are intertwined. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%. From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8%, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8%. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. Last week, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.298 (+0.04) million tons, mainly due to seasonal inventory accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high inventory was due to high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the center of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July - September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as volatile [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,817 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan or 0.12% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable compared with the previous trading day. According to the latest data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.6855 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,875 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan or 0.07% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of the week of July 11, the spinning mill's operating rate was 70.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 39.3%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.61 million tons, a 140,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new drivers [16]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few increases. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and the inventory in each link was generally small. Today, the egg price is expected to be stable, with a few fluctuations [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to continuous losses, the degree of production capacity clearance is still limited, and the large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The short - term rebound space is restricted by inventory. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large positions, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pig - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 14.65 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.17 yuan to 13.84 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume may remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is in a stalemate. Today, the pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has significantly rebounded, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and weight decline, indicating a seasonal supply reduction in the middle of the year. In the short term, there is support for the market, but in the medium term, there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging [21].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 374 million to 449 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 40% to 50% [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 374 million and 449 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 29.957 million to 37.457 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 0 and 420.85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 45% to 55% [2] Previous Year Performance Comparison - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 748.566 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 764.8527 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.52 yuan [2] Reasons for Performance Change - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to several factors: 1. Intensified competition in the raw material drug industry and the impact of domestic centralized procurement policies, leading to a decrease in sales revenue despite an increase in market share [2] 2. Increased investment in the research and development of innovative biological drugs, resulting in significantly higher R&D expenses [2] 3. Reduced foreign exchange gains due to currency fluctuations [2] - Non-operating gains and losses increased by approximately 50 million to 70 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in fair value changes of financial assets measured at fair value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. On the cost side, the U.S. soybean planting area report had a neutral impact, and the quarterly inventory report had a bearish impact. The market focus shifted to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, as well as export and crushing demand. Currently, the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and as of July 1st, the drought in U.S. soybean - producing areas dropped to 8%. Additionally, U.S. soybean demand is performing well. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans were 701,400 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period. The U.S. Senate passed the 45Z tax bill, and the biodiesel policy is favorable for crushing demand, with U.S. soybean oil performing strongly. With these mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuated upwards. - In China, recently, the arrival of soybeans at ports has been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal levels, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. At the same time, the downstream restocking has weakened recently, putting pressure on the spot price of soybean meal. Moreover, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of oil mills have entered an accumulation cycle. Among them, the soybean inventory is 6.66 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons compared to last week; the soybean - meal inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of 180,000 tons compared to last week. - Strategy: With mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuate upwards. From May to July in China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level in the same period, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, the downstream restocking has weakened, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the reduction in the U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed. The subsequent market will focus on weather speculation, and the Sino - U.S. tariff issue will continue to ferment. It is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. 3) Summary by Directory Main Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The cost - side factors of U.S. soybeans are mixed, with the market focusing on weather, export, and crushing demand. In China, the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and downstream restocking has weakened. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, weather speculation, and Sino - U.S. tariffs need to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Market Review - As of July 4th, the CBOT soybean closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 23 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 2.24%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan per ton, up 8 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.27% [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - side**: The weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas will have sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the next two weeks. As of June 29th, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 seasons increased compared to the previous week. Brazil's soybean export in June is estimated to be 13.93 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the Brazilian real continues to appreciate, and the near - month soybean premium has gradually increased [12][24][30]. - **Supply**: In the 26th week of 2025 (June 21st - June 27th), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 2.73 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the 27th week (June 28th - July 4th), the actual soybean - crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than the estimate. The soybean - meal transaction volume increased to 828,700 tons, an increase of 18.23%, and the提货 volume increased to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 4.10% [12][33][35]. - **Inventory**: In the 26th week of 2025, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of major domestic oil mills increased, while the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons compared to last week, an increase of 4.37% and 17.68% year - on - year. The soybean - meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons compared to last week, an increase of 35.90% and a decrease of 34.32% year - on - year [42]. Spread Tracking The report mentions data sources for spread - tracking indicators such as the soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, the oil - to - meal ratio, the soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and the soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread, but no specific spread - tracking data is provided [45][47][50][51].

农产品早报 2025-07-07 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 美豆周五休市，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑需求，整体维持 区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高。上周豆粕成交一般， 提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。饲料企业库 存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天。 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意 贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangj ...

Group 1: General Information - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report date: June 30, 2025 [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The upward driving force of natural rubber is insufficient, and it may remain weakly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber do not have upward driving force, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as Sino-US tariffs, upstream production, and midstream inventory on market sentiment and price trends [11][12] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - In the domestic Yunnan production area, heavy rainfall last week affected the raw material procurement sentiment of concentrated latex, and the raw material supply was tight; in the Hainan production area, affected by the previous typhoon, the output speed was dragged down, with a total island collection of about 3,000 - 3,500 tons, still less than the same period in previous years. In the Thai production area, there was less disturbance last week [9][10] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of sample all-steel tire factories was 62.23%, and that of semi-steel tire factories was about 70.4%. The demand expectation was impacted by the macro tariff war, the order situation was average, and the capacity utilization rate of most tire factories fluctuated at a low level [10] - According to Longzhong Information statistics, the domestic natural rubber social inventory was about 1.286 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The social inventory of dark rubber was about 780,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. The social inventory of light rubber was about 506,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%. There was a slight inventory accumulation [10] Group 5: Futures-Spot Combination Analysis - Last week, the spot market price of Thai mixed natural rubber fluctuated with the market. The monthly spread of Thai mixed spot showed a weak BACK structure, and the futures-spot spread widened. The spread between the RU main contract and Thai mixed spot fluctuated between 100 - 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the NR main contract * 1.13 and Thai mixed spot fell to about -20 yuan/ton. According to the past spread rules, there is no good opportunity for non-standard positive set building in the current market. Recently, the number of NR warehouse receipts has gradually increased, and the premium of standard rubber spot over mixed rubber spot has shrunk to par. In the Yunnan production area, the impact of rainfall decreased last week, and the spread between standard No. 2 and Thai mixed widened to about 700 yuan/ton [11]

| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3130 | 3080 | 50 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3020 | 3000 | 11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2997 | 2995 | 2 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3015 | 3005 | 10 | 115 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 72 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | 0 | -18 | | ...

■ 尽管近期中美关税显著缓和，但相较2018年贸易战1.0时期，本轮美国对华加征关税范围广、节奏快、幅度 高、政策不确定性大，预计仍将对我国出口和经济增长形成一定拖累。 ■ 更加积极的财政政策或更加突出功能财政理念，作为经济中的"最后借款人"积极提振需求。一方面，财政将 加快已有政策执行落地节奏。结合预算内和预算外资金测算，今年财政总量空间明显扩张。另一方面，年内财 政仍有"空中加油"的必要性。一是对冲关税冲击，托底经济增长。二是支持地方政府，推动地方财政重回扩 张。 ■ 2025年预算内财政总量空间 达41.6万亿，较上年显著扩张2.5万亿，为历史最高水平。一是目标赤字率突破 至4.0%。二是预算收入目标保守务实。三是收入承压背景下，财政预算支出较为积极。四是政府债券是财政 增量财力最主要的来源，超长期特别国债常态化发行。 ■ 2025年预算外财政空间或进一步打开，规模或达7.8万亿，较上年增加1.3万亿；占名义GDP的比重为5.5%， 较上年提高0.7pct。财政预算外资金来源主要是政策性银行以及城投平台。其中，政策性银行对财政的支持主 要体现在政金债和PSL两方面。 ■ 目前地方政府财政压力和债务负担依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]