Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The positive signals from the Sino - US economic and trade talks are expected to drive short - term strength in stock indices [1]. - The situation of asset shortage and weak economy is favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward movement [1]. - Different commodities have different trends: some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate, which are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to be strong in the short term due to positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warnings limit upward movement [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to fluctuate in the short term and has a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver is expected to remain strong but there is a risk of a sharp pullback [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper is expected to remain strong due to the boost of the Sino - US leaders' phone call [1]. - Aluminum may fluctuate weakly due to repeated macro - sentiment and weakening downstream demand despite low inventory support [1]. - Alumina may rebound in the short term due to rising spot prices, significant futures discounts, and mine - end disturbances [1]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate in the medium - to - long term due to uncertainties in tariff policies and potential oversupply of primary nickel [1]. Black Metals - Iron ore may fluctuate as the iron - making volume is expected to peak and there is an expected increase in supply in June [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron have different supply - demand situations, with manganese silicon having heavy warehouse receipt pressure and silicon iron having a tight supply - demand balance due to production cuts [1]. - Steel products such as hot - rolled coils and stainless steel have different trends based on factors like cost, supply, and demand [1]. Agricultural Products - Corn is expected to be strong in the medium term due to tightening supply - demand, but its upward potential is limited by domestic substitute grain prices [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to face pressure on the spot basis and near - month contracts due to expected inventory accumulation in June [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to change in the 2025/26 season, and the future production may be affected by the crude oil price [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are expected to fluctuate, affected by OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical situations, and seasonal consumption [1]. - PTA, ethylene glycol, and other chemical products have different trends based on factors such as cost, supply, and demand [1]. - Urea may rebound, while methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - Shipping container freight on the European route has a "strong expectation, weak reality" situation, and certain trading strategies are recommended [1]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak demand and lack of news guidance [1].

Market Overview - On May 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.05%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.57%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.17%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.65%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.8%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 1.35% [4][3] - The best-performing sectors on May 26 were Media (+2.14%), Computer (+1.39%), Environmental Protection (+1.22%), Communication (+1.1%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.04%). The worst-performing sectors were Automotive (-1.78%), Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.08%), Comprehensive (-0.86%), Banking (-0.75%), and Home Appliances (-0.71%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 26 was 1,033.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.507 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Key Insights - From the production side, high-frequency indicators for the service and industrial sectors remained generally stable compared to the previous week. On the demand side, there was a divergence in variables, with consumption strengthening, fixed asset investment showing mixed strength, and exports showing signs of recovery [5] - Price-wise, marginal pressure on prices was observed this week, with a systemic rebound dependent on a demand-side recovery. Following the China-US trade talks, the fundamental pressure has eased [5]

有色金属日报 2025-5-21 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中国如预期下调 LPR 利率报价，美元指数延续偏弱，地缘局势升温引起贵金属和原油价格走强，铜价 下探后回升，昨日伦铜收涨 0.4%至 9554 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78140 元/吨。产业层面，昨 日 LME 库存减少 3575 至 170750 吨，注销仓单比例抬升至 38.9%，Cash/3M 升水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, the macro - economic situation is complex with concerns such as high tariffs and weakening economic data in the US. Industry - specific factors like raw material supply, inventory levels, and demand also impact metal prices. Some metals face upward price pressure due to supply disruptions, while others may decline due to oversupply or weak demand [1][3][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper prices rose 0.81% to $9516/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78160 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 38.8%. In China, social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spot in Shanghai shifted to a premium over futures. The short - term upward space of copper prices may be limited due to factors such as weak macro - sentiment and weakening price support [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell 1.95% to $2436/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20040 yuan/ton. LME registered warrants increased, putting pressure on prices. The total inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased at a slower pace. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunity of aluminum [3]. Lead - The SHFE lead index fell 0.09% to 16871 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks on May 12, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. The medium - term SHFE lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - The SHFE zinc index fell 0.42% to 22285 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. A Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to stop production in June, which may boost zinc prices sentimentally. However, there is still a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to factors such as increasing inventory [6]. Tin - On May 19, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.04%. The supply side of tin is currently tight but is expected to loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may move down [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. The cost side of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.24%. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the market may run weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as mine operations and inventory changes [11]. Alumina - On May 19, the alumina index rose 8.1% to 3123 yuan/ton. Due to continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12965 yuan/ton on Friday. The cost support is enhanced, but terminal procurement is still cautious. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].

Core Insights - The article presents the weekly ranking of outstanding works in the "作·嗅之星" list for the period from May 9 to May 15, 2025, highlighting the top articles and their authors [1][3]. Summary by Categories - **Top Articles**: - TOP 1: "Results Better Than Expected" by Ye Tan Finance [3] - TOP 2: "China-US Economic and Trade Talks Reveal a Third Possibility for Southeast Asia's Development" by Cultural Horizon [3] - TOP 3: "The First 'Withdrawal' from the Xiaomi Ecosystem" by Letter Ranking [3] - TOP 4: "The Logic of Military Industry Has Changed Completely" by Outsider's Perspective [3] - TOP 5: "The Province in China Most Lacking Universities is Rapidly Building Colleges" by NetEase Data [3] - TOP 6: "Lei Jun's Silence, Xiaomi's Deceleration" by Judge [3] - TOP 7: "Xiaohongshu 'Tears Up' Non-Compete Agreement, Yet the Entire Industry is Sinking Deeper" by Silicon Star Pro [3] - TOP 8: "How Secure is Xiaomi?" by Flower Street Reference [3] - TOP 9: "J-10C, Initial Trial" by Quantum School [3] - **Selection Criteria**: - The selected works are based on various dimensions such as article quality and popularity. Readers can also engage by reading, sharing, and interacting to support their favorite works and authors [6]. - **Incentives for Authors**: - To encourage the continuous production of excellent content, the platform will regularly award bonuses to winning authors and provide special support rights such as site recommendations [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be a range - bound consolidation [1]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is likely to be a volatile run [2]. - The short - term decline of domestic corn is expected to be limited [3]. - Copper prices may break through the moving average system in the short term, and investors should be prepared for defense [4]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may experience a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [7]. - For the steel market, the black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the price, and a strategy of buying at low levels is recommended [8]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile at low levels due to loose supply [9]. - The short - term trend of iron ore 2509 is likely to be volatile, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - The WTI crude oil main contract is likely to oscillate between $55 - $65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the height of the resonance rebound [13]. - The PVC futures price rebound space is limited due to weak fundamentals [15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season. The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2,980 yuan/ton (- 20), 2,970 yuan/ton (- 70), and 3,030 yuan/ton (- 40) respectively [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA May report shows a decrease in US soybean production and an increase in global inventory. The domestic supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose, with good demand from the breeding end, and the inventory accumulation speed is slow in the short term [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2,200 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,432 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3]. - **Market Analysis**: There is an expectation of loose corn imports in the medium - to - long term, but the actual negative impact is limited. Domestically, there is a temporary supply shortage, and downstream demand is weak [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 79,050 yuan, up 750 yuan, with a discount of 50 - flat water. The imported copper ore index is - 43.11, down 0.5 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to the commodity market. Domestically, policy support boosts market sentiment. However, raw material issues still exist, and the copper market situation is complex [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 65,050 yuan/ton (+100), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 63,550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support for lithium carbonate is weakening, supply is high, demand improvement is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price has dropped, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 - yuan/ton support level [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel market fundamentals are gradually improving, with low inventory. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of coking coal and coke is loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 102.8, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 778 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 780 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market has both long and short factors. Supply has a slight decrease, demand has a mixed situation, and the tariff policy affects the price [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The progress of the US - Iran negotiation and the easing of the trade war have an impact on the oil price. OPEC+ plans to increase production in June, and the long - term price is expected to decline, with technical support at $55 per barrel for the WTI main contract [11]. Natural Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The rubber market rebounds in resonance with the market, but the rebound height is limited due to fundamentals. The supply is loose, and the US auto tariff policy may suppress demand [12]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,880 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has a slight increase, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has a slight decrease. The futures price rebounds under macro - sentiment influence, but the fundamental improvement is limited [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,425 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash operating rate and production decrease due to maintenance, inventory decreases slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell is re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise [7][18][24]. - The rebound in the crude oil market may not be over, but the expected US - Iran peace talks have weakened the upside space. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads lightly [8]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term but still face pressure in the medium term [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward [13][19]. - **Fundamentals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is - 1 [18][22]. - **News**: The Fed's adjustment of the monetary policy framework, US economic data such as PPI and retail sales, and international political and economic events [18][23]. 3.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper lacks a clear driver and its price is oscillating [13][24]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices had fluctuations in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **News**: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and news about copper imports and mining projects [24][26]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Core View**: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina continues to rebound [13][27]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of aluminum and alumina. The trend strength of both is 0 [27][29]. - **News**: Spot alumina transactions in Henan [27]. 3.4 Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc prices are adjusting downward [13][30]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [30][31]. - **News**: US economic data [31]. 3.5 Lead - **Core View**: Lead is in a range - bound adjustment [13][33]. - **Fundamentals**: Lead prices had slight changes, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [33][34]. - **News**: US economic data [34]. 3.6 Tin - **Core View**: Tin is oscillating in a narrow range [13][36]. - **Fundamentals**: Tin prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [37][41]. - **News**: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and international political and economic events [38]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: News has affected market sentiment for nickel, but the fundamentals have changed little. For stainless steel, inventory has slightly decreased at a high level, and the short - term recovery may not be significant [13][42]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of nickel and stainless steel. The trend strength of both is 0 [42][46]. - **News**: Indonesia's adjustment of nickel product resource tax rates, Canada's potential nickel export policy change, and the progress of nickel - related projects [42][45]. 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: The pattern of inventory accumulation in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to reverse, and the weak trend may continue [13][47]. - **Fundamentals**: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [47][49]. - **News**: The price increase of battery - grade lithium carbonate and the growth of the global electric vehicle market [48][49]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation and the disk has a downward drive. Polysilicon's downstream prices continue to fall, and the disk is weak [13][50]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon. The trend strength of both is - 1 [50][52]. - **News**: Lian Sheng Technology's major asset restructuring [51]. 3.10 Iron Ore - **Core View**: Short - term positive factors for iron ore have been realized, and the upward drive has slowed down [13][53]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore prices declined slightly, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [54]. - **News**: China's M2 data [54]. 3.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [13][56]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [56][58]. - **News**: Steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association, steel production, inventory, and demand data from Shanghai Steel Union, and China's loan and money supply data [56][58]. 3.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: Ferrosilicon has concentrated production cuts in major producing areas and is in wide - range oscillations. Silicomanganese's raw material prices continue to rise, and it is also in wide - range oscillations [13][60][61]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The trend strength of both is 0 [60][63]. - **News**: Price changes and production cuts in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets [60]. 3.13 Coke and Coking Coal - **Core View**: Both coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations due to the decline in hot metal production [13][64][65]. - **Fundamentals**: Coke and coking coal prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [65][68]. - **News**: Price and inventory data of coke and coking coal [65]. 3.14 Steam Coal - **Core View**: Steam coal inventories in mines are increasing, and the price is oscillating weakly [13][69]. - **Fundamentals**: Steam coal had no trading on the previous day, with price and inventory information. The trend strength is 0 [69][71]. - **News**: Steam coal prices in domestic and foreign ports [70]. 3.15 Logs - **Core View**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [13][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's comments on U.S.-China trade relations and their potential impact on Taiwan, emphasizing that the U.S. policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged despite interpretations of Trump's remarks [2][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Trump's statement regarding "unification and peace" is interpreted as a reference to the Taiwan issue, highlighting the sensitivity of Taiwan in U.S.-China relations [3]. - The article suggests that Trump's comments may indicate a willingness to resolve the Taiwan issue through peaceful negotiations, similar to trade discussions [3]. Group 2: Taiwan's Political Climate - There is growing concern among Taiwanese citizens about the possibility of Taiwan being "sold out" by the U.S. under Trump's administration, reflecting fears about Taiwan's sovereignty [3]. - The article mentions a discussion on a television program where a Taiwanese politician expressed similar concerns, indicating a broader anxiety within Taiwan regarding its future [3][4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The article posits that the inevitability of cross-strait unification is a historical direction, while the emergence of political figures like Lai Ching-te represents an accidental turning point that could escalate tensions [4]. - The discussion includes the notion that both Trump and Lai could be seen as coincidental factors influencing the trajectory of cross-strait relations [4].

A股突然大爆发！ A股于午后突然飙涨，三大指数全线翻红，上证50涨超1%。大金融、航运物流板块持续发力，红塔证券午后涨停， 中国人保、中国太保涨超7%，新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安、宁波银行跟涨。 从结构上看，大金融是市场上涨的主力，航运物流则因经贸利好继续上涨。那么，大金融上涨究竟是何缘故？与公 募新规可能存在一定关联。首先，华西证券认为，公募基金在银行板块的配置比例大约3.49%，相较于沪深300指数 权重低配9.99个百分点，相较于中证800指数权重低配6.99个百分点；其次，国金证券认为，公募基金新规也有望驱 动资金流向券商板块。 突然飙升 今日午后，A股市场突然大幅飙升，沪指很快上涨超过20个点，三大指数集体翻红。不过，从结构上看，大盘股显然 要比小盘股强，而其中金融板块又明显是拉升主力。 目前，A股银行板块在公募配置中的结构性矛盾。按照最新的数据（2025年一季度），公募在银行板块的配置比例大 约3.49%，相较于沪深300指数权重低配9.99个百分点，相较于中证800指数权重低配6.99个百分点。 另外，《保险资金运用管理办法》修订，进一步放宽权益类资产风险因子，引发新一轮配置潮，险资对高股息高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on the U.S. imposing a 20% special tariff on Chinese exports under the pretext of fentanyl issues, asserting that fentanyl is primarily a U.S. problem and not a Chinese one [1] - The Chinese government expresses that the U.S. has ignored China's goodwill and that the imposition of tariffs severely impacts the dialogue and cooperation between the two countries in drug control [1] - The spokesperson urges the U.S. to engage in dialogue with China in a manner that is equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial, rather than resorting to blame and smear tactics [1]