Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread dropping. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a new low in the past 20 years. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and downstream procurement was for rigid demand. It's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region, the expected sugarcane yield per hectare is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. However, most consulting companies believe the sugar production will exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the rubber market sentiment weakened. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, but some plants are planning to have maintenance in early August. The demand in the terminal market is average, and tire inventories are increasing. It's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The supply from New Zealand is low. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports increased by 2.72% week - on - week. The total log inventory at national ports decreased. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing developments in the US-China trade negotiations and their potential impact on the market, particularly the US dollar and gold prices [4][5][6] - The US dollar index has risen, reaching a five-week high above the 99 mark, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key economic data [1] - Gold prices have halted a four-day decline, briefly touching the $3330 mark but failing to maintain that level, indicating volatility in precious metals [2] Group 2 - The third round of US-China trade talks has been characterized by constructive dialogue, with both sides recognizing the importance of a stable economic relationship [4] - Continuous communication between the US and China is expected to facilitate the stable and healthy development of bilateral trade relations [5] - The market sentiment suggests that the A-shares in China are likely to continue rising due to positive developments in trade negotiations [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is of positive significance for enhancing fertility willingness and driving related consumption. Attention should be paid to whether the China - US economic and trade negotiations achieve more than expected progress. The market is rotating at the current position. In the short term, it is necessary to observe whether blue - chip stocks start to make up for lost ground, and opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, a child - rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan per year will be provided for each child until the child reaches the age of 3. Eligible infants under 3 years old can apply for the subsidy, and those born before January 1, 2025, and under 3 years old can receive the subsidy based on the number of months. It is expected that localities will open the application for the subsidy in late August. The China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Overseas, Trump said he might impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to close at 3,597.94 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%. The defense and military, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology industries led the gains, while the coal, steel, transportation, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.74 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.14%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends were differentiated. The basis of IH rebounded, while the discounts of IC and IM deepened. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is positive for fertility willingness and related consumption. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations. The market is rotating, and short - term attention should be paid to whether blue - chip stocks make up for lost ground. Opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 28, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.35% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 92,993 (an increase of 547), open interest was 263,839 (an increase of 3,663); IH trading volume was 46,357 (a decrease of 870), open interest was 95,447 (a decrease of 1,993); IC trading volume was 88,191 (an increase of 11,258), open interest was 228,690 (an increase of 3,134); IM trading volume was 186,257 (an increase of 26,844), open interest was 338,751 (an increase of 11,728) [15] - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 4.62 (a decrease of 0.26), etc.; for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 3.23 (an increase of 3.14), etc.; for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 49.42 (a decrease of 11.03), etc.; for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 55.38 (a decrease of 16.97), etc. [40] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 9.20 (a decrease of 2.40), etc. [44][45][46]

| 《八� 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月28日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★★★ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落,盘中价格触及震荡区间上沿。内地棉花现货基差偏稳。部分棉企报盘数量减少,下游纷企维持刚需采购。7 月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所效缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进 口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；20 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has made progress in trade negotiations with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, with agreements expected before the August 1 deadline[1] - A key event is the third round of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for July 28 in Stockholm, which may yield new outcomes regarding export controls[1] - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court will rule on July 31 regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), impacting global trade dynamics[1] Group 2: Tariff Analysis - Trump's tariffs can be categorized into three types: a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products from China, a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on various imports based on trade deficits[2] - The International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that Trump's global and retaliatory tariffs were invalid, asserting that tariff authority lies with Congress, not the President[2] - The upcoming court ruling on July 31 could result in four scenarios, including upholding the International Trade Court's decision, which would invalidate Trump's tariffs[3] Group 3: Implications for China - If the court rules against Trump's tariffs, China may gain leverage in future negotiations with the U.S.[4] - Conversely, if the court supports Trump's tariffs, negotiations may become more challenging, requiring further concessions from China[4] - The potential for Trump to utilize other administrative measures to impose tariffs remains if the court ruling is unfavorable[4] Group 4: Upcoming Events and Risks - Key upcoming events include the U.S.-China trade talks from July 27 to 30 and the court debate on July 31, which will influence tariff policies[4] - Risks include the possibility of U.S. trade negotiations introducing terms detrimental to China's interests and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea region[5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the upcoming third round of trade negotiations between the US and China in Stockholm, which will also address China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, indicating a shift towards incorporating geopolitical issues into economic discussions [1][3][4] - The US Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a strategy to use energy procurement as leverage in trade talks, aiming to pressure China into concessions in other areas [3][4][6] - China's response emphasizes the importance of keeping trade negotiations focused on economic issues, rejecting the inclusion of geopolitical matters such as oil procurement [4][6][9] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of the trilateral meeting between China, Russia, and Iran, which underscores their collective stance on regional stability and fair international order amidst US sanctions and pressures [6][9] - The changing attitudes of the UK, France, and Germany towards Iran indicate a recognition that sanctions alone may not resolve the nuclear issue, reflecting a need for a more balanced approach that considers their own economic and energy interests [7][9] - The evolving international dynamics suggest that the interplay of geopolitical and economic interests is increasingly complex, with various nations reassessing their strategies in light of the US's unpredictable actions regarding Iran [7][9]

据彭博社报道，当地时间7月15日，美国财政部长贝森特暗示，原定于下月到来的中美关税休战截止日 期具有灵活性。 他指出，在未来几周预计举行的会晤前，世界上两个最大的经济体之间的谈判处于"非常良好的状态"。 博社 贝森特资料图 彭 据报道，当地时间7月15日，贝森特在接受彭博电视台采访时说："我告诉市场参与者不要担心8月12日 这个日期。"彭博社指出，贝森特指的是5月12日宣布的暂停加征部分关税90天的截止日期。 贝森特称，希望很快能与中方会面，地点可能是在第三国，时间可能是在8月初。 "我们仍在努力。"贝森特说。 据报道，英伟达公司称，美国政府最近向其保证，将批准其向中国市场销售H20芯片的许可。 7月15日，英伟达公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在接受央视新闻采访时表示，美国已批准H20芯片销 往中国。 贝森特15日向彭博电视台证实了这一进展，并表示，批准此类许可是特朗普政府与中方谈判的一部分内 容。 "这都是拼图的一部分，"贝森特说，"他们有我们想要的东西，我们也有他们想要的东西。" 他强调，中美之间的谈判处于非常良好的状态。 7月7日，贝森特就曾表示，他预计将在未来几周内与中国同行会面，以推动两国关于贸易和其 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a situation of increasing supply and demand. Although industrial inventories are accumulating, they remain at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a weekly change of - 1.62% and an amplitude of 2.52%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 78,430 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts, with three main camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [4] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [4] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to operate in the negative range, and port inventories decreased. The supply of concentrates is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the cost - side support for copper prices remains. On the supply side, the price of by - product sulfuric acid is favorable, and the resumption of some smelters after environmental inspections and the ramping - up of new production capacity have increased production willingness and actual output. On the demand side, the US plan to impose large - scale tariffs on copper has adjusted the international trade flow of copper. The decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream inventory building in China, and domestic macro - policies have strengthened consumption expectations [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 515 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 78,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 178,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 37,056 lots. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [10][13] - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [13] - **Options Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.5950, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0954 [27] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,607 lots, a decrease of 10,625 lots from last week [22] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Prices and Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines weakened, and the processing fees of blister copper remained flat [28] - **Imports and Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 0.5098 million tons from April, a decline of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.59%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,022.99 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 693.43 yuan/ton [34] - **Production and Inventory**: As of April 2025, the monthly global output of copper concentrates was 1,909 thousand tons, a decrease of 59 thousand tons from March, a decline of 3%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79.2%, unchanged from March. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous period [39] Supply - Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April and a year - on - year increase of 15.15%. As of April 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,365 thousand tons, a decrease of 55 thousand tons from March, a decline of 2.27%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [41] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 219.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 231.23 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of LME increased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the total inventory of COMEX increased by 9,687 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [53] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from April, an increase of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 15.69% [59] - **Applications**: As of May 2025, the cumulative investment completion in power grids and power sources increased by 19.8% and 0.39% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment in real estate development was 362.3384 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% and a month - on - month increase of 30.67%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 193.46 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 28.21% [65][71] Overall - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of April 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of - 50 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 193,600 tons [76]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce indicated a potential meeting with Chinese representatives in early August [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that both sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [1]