Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese leaders and US President Trump resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on fentanyl and the suspension of multiple export controls and investigations, which has been positively received as it avoids a destructive trade war [1] - Starting December 1, China will implement stricter export controls on rare earth elements to the Netherlands, requiring export licenses for goods containing ≥0.1% Chinese-sourced rare earths, and case-by-case approval for 14nm chip production equipment [1] Group 2 - ASML, a key player in advanced lithography machines, is facing a critical inventory shortage, with neodymium-iron-boron magnets only sufficient for 8 weeks of production, risking a monthly production decrease of 15 to 20 EUV lithography machines and an annual loss of €3.2 to €4.3 billion [2] - The core components of lithography machines rely heavily on rare earth elements, with the EUV lithography machine's magnetic levitation stage requiring neodymium-iron-boron magnets doped with dysprosium and terbium to achieve high coercivity, ensuring wafer positioning accuracy within ±2 nanometers [2] - The lens systems produced by Zeiss also depend on high-purity lanthanum glass, with 90% of this supply sourced from China, highlighting the critical nature of rare earth elements in the semiconductor manufacturing process [2]

出口国营贸易企业申报条件及申报程序》，政策落地后锑相关金属材料出口或也将逐步复 苏，有望带动此前持续下跌的国内锑价企稳回升，建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿 业。国内外储能需求旺盛，国内锂电池排产环比持续提升并传导至上游锂电正极材料环节， 部分头部材料厂商已满产，使订单已外溢到二三线材料厂商；产业链下游高景气下，带动上 游碳酸锂需求增加并出现供应缺口，致使国内碳酸锂库存在进入10月后加速去化至12.5万吨 以下，驱动锂价持续上涨。预计11月在下游旺盛需求下，国内碳酸锂库存或将继续去化以支 撑价格走强，建议关注中矿资源、雅化集团、盛新锂能、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业。 风险提示：1）国内经济复苏不及预期的风险；2）美联储降息不及预期的风险；3）有 色金属价格大幅下跌的风险；4）中美关税贸易对抗超预期的风险。（中国银河 华立,孙雪 琪） 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 重点金属价格数据：本周上期所铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡分别收于87,010元/吨、21,300 元/吨、22,355元/吨、17,390元/吨、120,590元/吨、283,910元/吨，较上周变动幅度分别为 +0.16%、+0.33%、+0.29%、-0.80%、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, the short - term market sentiment is fluctuating, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - In the copper market, the volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains, and long - positions should be held based on 86,000 [4]. - The aluminum market is driven by positive macro - sentiment, and Shanghai aluminum will continue to run strongly in the upward channel since May [5]. - Alumina is in a pattern of oversupply, and it will mainly operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market [7]. - For zinc, a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy has a good profit - loss ratio, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [8]. - The lead market is a combination of long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 and 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel prices are running weakly with a downward - moving center of gravity [10]. - For tin, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, and the right - side trading should refer to the 20 - day moving average [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on the fermentation of policy news, and it is recommended to take a light - position and follow - the - trend strategy [13]. - The price center of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate upwards, but the amplitude is limited [14]. - Steel prices will mainly oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - The coke price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. - The coking coal price is also more likely to rise than to fall [18]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to pay continuous attention to the low - level layout opportunities of the high - sulfur and low - sulfur price spread [22]. - The asphalt market has weak "peak - season" demand, and the medium - and long - term de - stocking is expected to slow down [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil cracking [24]. - The urea market will maintain low - level operation in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, a calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended [27]. - Styrene prices may continue to run weakly [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are still under pressure [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the overall macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - For PX and PTA, a reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to the impact of energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its price will follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - term out - of - the - money put options [34]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - For soda ash, a short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US after the Sino - US trade relaxation [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, attention should be paid to the supply of palm oil and the guidance of Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal prices may be boosted by oilseed futures prices, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - For soybean No.1, attention should be paid to the performance of imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [40]. - Corn prices in Dalian may continue to run weakly at the bottom [41]. - Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [45]. - Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehousing situation [46]. - For timber, low inventory strongly supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. - In the stock index market, the market style should focus on the technology - growth sector, and the layout should be based on the direction of technological innovation and industrial upgrading [49]. - The yield curve steepening of treasury bonds is expected to come to an end [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent's December contract down 0.94%. The eight voluntary - production - cut countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [2]. - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. The Fed's internal disagreement on policy prospects, Sino - US trade relaxation, and the US government shutdown are affecting market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: On Friday, domestic and foreign copper prices recovered some losses. The volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains [4]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. Macro - sentiment is positive, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited resonance [5]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,800 yuan. It will follow the aluminum price [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME plans to limit near - month positions. The upside resistance of zinc at the 3,050 - dollar mark is large [8]. - **Lead**: The supply pressure of lead is increasing, but the cost support is still strong [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are running weakly, with the center of gravity moving downwards [10]. - **Tin**: Last week, domestic and foreign tin prices fluctuated. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure at high levels. The futures price is rising, and the market is actively trading [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price has risen significantly, driven by the planned capacity storage of leading enterprises [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production in Xinjiang has increased slightly, while that in Yunnan has declined due to the dry season [14]. - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices fell on Friday night. The demand for thread and hot - rolled coil is improving, but the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rebounded last week. The supply is high, and the demand support is weakening [16]. - **Coke**: The coke price rose and then fell during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose and then fell during the day. The overall inventory has increased slightly [18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: The demand for both is supported by high iron - water production. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". This week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost. The high - sulfur market has a multi - factor intertwined pattern, and the low - sulfur market is weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The demand in the north is decreasing, and the commercial inventory is de - stocking faster [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The weekly commodity volume has decreased slightly, and the arrival volume has increased significantly [24]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are fluctuating narrowly. The market sentiment is boosted by industry meetings [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures price has fallen significantly. The port inventory pressure is large [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Last week, the price of pure benzene declined. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices may continue to run weakly due to weak cost support and inventory concerns [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene has increased slightly. The prices of polypropylene and plastic are under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is increasing. A reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol follows the external market, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - **Glass**: Glass prices have limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the improvement in Shahe's spot market [34]. - **Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber**: Demand is slowly recovering, and it is advisable to pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price is falling. A short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The price of Dalian soybean meal contract 2601 continued to be strong on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of soybean No.1 is slightly rising. Attention should be paid to the trade of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures prices declined slightly on Friday night. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [41]. - **Pig**: Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Egg prices are fluctuating. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage [46]. - **Timber**: Timber prices are supported by low inventory [47]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are fluctuating narrowly. The port inventory is high, and the demand is general [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares showed structural differentiation. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are fluctuating strongly. The yield curve steepening is expected to end [50].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 3 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 豆粕：利多因素带动 | 盘面偏强运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格反弹修复 | 郑糖价格短期略强 6 | | 油脂板块：短期缺乏利多驱动，油脂震荡偏弱运行 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力继续体现 | 价格延续回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货企稳反弹，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 | 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 | 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 | 棉价震荡略偏强 12 | | 钢材：宏观影响消退，钢价冲高回落 14 | | --- | | 双焦：高位震荡 等待回调后做多的机会 14 | | 铁矿：高位偏空为主 15 | | 铁合金：库存持续攀升，继续作为空头配置 16 | | 贵金属：政策风向转变，短期承压延续调整 17 | | --- | | 铜：价格短期回踩，长期趋势不变 18 | | 氧化铝：供应端减产仍未落地 氧化铝偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The opening of US soybean imports drives up costs, leading to an upward trend in domestic soybean meal prices. However, the upside is limited due to factors such as the high cost of US soybeans and the weakening of domestic demand growth [5][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the market is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors from the producing areas. The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil are under pressure, while soybean oil shows relatively stronger performance [78][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal - **Market Review**: As of October 31, the spot price in East China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton monthly. The basis price decreased by 30 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Supply**: The USDA October report was delayed. US soybean exports accelerated, but China's actual purchases were limited. Brazilian old - crop sales pressure increased, and the new - crop planting progress was 50% as of October 31, lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel. The estimated bottom price of US soybeans is around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: US soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around 1100 cents/bushel. Domestic soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of import costs, but the performance is not as strong as that of US soybeans [7]. - **Strategy**: Slightly reduce M2601 long positions and re - enter at low prices. Lightly build long positions in M2605 and M2609 at low prices. Spot enterprises should sell the basis at high prices and roll long positions [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: As of October 31, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices declined, while soybean oil prices were relatively stable [80][82]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports increased less than production, with an expected inventory build - up. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy may face obstacles. In the short - term, palm oil prices are under pressure, but there is support below [80]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the APEC meeting, China agreed to purchase US soybeans, which boosted the market sentiment. The high - level soybean crushing volume in September and the possible downward adjustment of the new - crop yield of US soybeans supported the short - term rebound of US soybean prices. In the long - term, the supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, which limits the de - stocking speed [80]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and the possibility of Canadian rapeseed entering China has increased. The supply of rapeseed in Canada is expected to be abundant, but there is still a supply gap in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [80]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the upside of oils and fats is limited, but the adjustment range is restricted. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and the start of weather speculation in South America [80]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts. Consider the strategy of narrowing the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil 01 contracts and widening the spread between soybean oil and palm oil 01 contracts [80].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Bean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: November 3 - November 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The domestic oil mill's high crushing volume, slow de - stocking of bean meal, and weak demand from the feed industry due to breeding losses are offset by the bottom - driving force of rising import costs caused by Sino - US negotiation sentiment and South American weather uncertainties [6]. - Trend Logic: In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak, but import costs are rising [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade, South American weather, and breeding demand [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with funds being relatively bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3050 [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with funds being strongly bullish. The M2601 contract may continue the slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [10]. 3. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds for bean meal are strongly bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 98.0. The fund energy is basically stable, and there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 90.4 [14]. 4. Related Data - The report covers data such as bean meal's weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Advisory Department [19][20][22] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals, high operating rates of oil mills, high production, and inventory are suppressing prices, while the dull demand and weak competing oils are countered by the positive impact of improved Sino - US trade relations and import cost support [27]. - Trend Logic: In the 43rd week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 44,980 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 125,030 tons [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy [27] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with funds being relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short - term [30]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, with funds being relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short - term [30]. 3. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds for soybean oil are relatively bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 65.5. The main funds are flowing in slightly with a fund energy of 44.9, and there is a certain risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 70.9 [35]. 4. Related Data - The report includes data on soybean oil's weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, as well as soybean's weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Advisory Department [41][47][50]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Oscillation**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Decline**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Soybean Oil [1] - **Short - term Callback**: Cotton [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red Dates [1] - **Alert to Rebound**: Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Pay attention to Sino - US trade and Brazilian weather. Current tariffs support domestic soybean meal cost and are negative for US soybeans [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed factors. Follow soybean meal trends and focus on Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with expected inventory accumulation in October and November. Hold existing short positions cautiously [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Lack of bullish support from US soybeans and biodiesel policies. High domestic inventory. Follow palm oil trends and be cautious about short - selling [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, but lack of bullish drivers in the oil market. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term callback. Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides some support. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, with increasing inventory and weak demand [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Loose fundamentals expected. Reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost. Monitor post - harvest pricing [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Alert to rebound. Supply pressure in Q4, but some second - fattening opportunities. Focus on market supply - demand changes and consider short - selling on rebounds and arbitrage opportunities [1][17]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 15.3 tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 17.41 tons, while bean meal inventory increased by 7.84 tons. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days increased slightly [3]. - **Market Situation**: Spot prices increased, but procurement sentiment was weak. Supply remained loose, and the basis had limited upside [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International rapeseed production is expected to rise [6]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking phase, but demand is seasonally weak. It follows soybean meal trends due to lack of new drivers [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased by 3.14 tons week - on - week. Malaysian production and export data vary, but inventory is expected to accumulate [7][8]. - **Market Situation**: Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 policy negatively affecting prices [1][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: US new cotton is being harvested, and Indian MSP implementation is delayed. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, and commercial inventory is approaching the same - period level [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides support. Domestic demand is weak, and the market has limited upward momentum [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: Expected large - scale harvest. Inventory increased as some merchants bought old - season dates. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range [13]. - **Market Situation**: Loose fundamentals expected. The market is volatile, and short - term short positions should be reduced [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: As of relevant data, inventory increased slightly, and the average slaughter weight was stable. Supply is expected to increase in Q4 [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: Supply pressure is postponed to December. Demand is stabilizing. Be cautious about short - term rebounds and consider trading strategies and arbitrage opportunities [17].

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Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week, with the fundamentals loosening. The market's risk preference was affected by the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease, tightening the supply at the ore end. The price of ferronickel has been continuously decreasing due to weak downstream demand [3][4]. - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless steel futures follows macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, it focuses on fundamentals. The demand for new energy is an important factor in the long - term, and the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand for stainless steel in the medium - term [4][7]. - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous high - selling and low - buying strategy for nickel and stainless steel has seen a decline in valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week. The macro - level factors such as the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs affected the market's risk preference. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but the actual transactions are stable. The price of ferronickel has been decreasing due to weak downstream demand, and stainless steel is also in a weak state. Although there are some positive macro - signals, the overall situation remains under pressure [3]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous strategies included buying Shanghai Nickel 2511 futures contracts, Shanghai Nickel 2511 call options, and Shanghai Nickel 2512 futures contracts, which have all been exited [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, in the case of inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, it is recommended to short Shanghai Nickel futures and sell call options. In the case of procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options. Similar strategies are also provided for stainless steel [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino - US relations have eased, the Fed decided to cut interest rates this week, many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts mainly for the 200 - series, and the approaching rainy season in the Philippines may affect the supply of nickel ore [12]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the trading center of ferronickel has moved down, stainless steel has entered the off - season, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut is uncertain [12]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends**: The nickel and stainless steel futures markets oscillated this week, with prices first rebounding slightly and then falling again. The cost reduction led to a more significant decline. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and some manufacturers announcing production cuts [13]. - **Fund Flow Analysis**: The net positions of key profitable seats have decreased, and the confidence in short - term price increases has weakened. For stainless steel, the inflow of funds is more cautious, with some funds shorting at high levels and reducing positions during the week [14]. - **External Market**: The LME introduced policies to limit large - scale near - month positions to avoid malicious short - squeezing. The external market was relatively weak this week, with inventory digestion difficult, which suppressed the upside space [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Under the current nickel price range, the profits of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are under pressure. The profit space for producing electrowon nickel through different processes is thin, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a loss state. The profit of ferronickel has improved but has not turned positive, and there is still support at the bottom [39][40]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials in China is high, but the supply may be affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts for the 200 - series, and the production of domestic ferronickel is at a historical low due to competition from Indonesian ferronickel [43]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand for the nickel industry chain has been weak for a long time. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased during the peak season, and the demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate in the new energy sector has recovered. However, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, and the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations. Although there are some positive factors in exports, the short - term demand adjustment is neutral [46]. 5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term, the supply of the nickel industry is relatively abundant, with high - speed growth in the production of primary nickel in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the industry balance lies in the new energy demand. Stainless steel demand has limited marginal growth, but the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand in the medium - term. The new energy sector is in a tight - balance and short - supply state during the peak season, but it is difficult to reverse the overall oversupply situation [57].